基于复杂系统理论的企业生态系统动态演化研究

将生命周期理论引入企业生态系统的动态演化规律分析,其演化过程经历开拓、成长、成熟、自我更新或衰退大致四个阶段。基于耗散结构理论,对企业生态系统的动态演化机制进行研究,得出其演化是自组织和环境选择相结合的结果的结论。     

网络舆情的动态传播演化研究

根据网络舆情的动态传播演化过程与遗传算法中遗传操作的相似性,本文将二者结合起来进行研究。通过对网络舆情的动态传播演化的循环渐进分析,详细阐述了网络舆情的形成、舆情观点的交融、舆情主题的变异及舆情关注点的获得过程。在此基础上找出了在网络舆情传播演化过程中起关键作用的因素,对此提出政府舆情监管部门的应对措施,为舆情管理者更好地开展网络舆情监管调控工作提供建议。     

第三方物流企业知识共享的演化博弈分析

本文运用演化博弈理论的方法,建立了一个第三方物流企业知识共享的演化博弈模型,对第三方物流企业知识共享的内在机理与动态演化过程进行了研究,得出知识共享的演化稳定策略.最后通过分析影响第三方物流企业知识共享的因素,提出了提高成员企业选择知识共享策略概率的有效对策.     

基于灰色关联聚类法的软件可信性评估指标选取方法

目前，对软件可信性评估的认识还处于灰色阶段，故本文就灰色关联聚类法和软件可信性评估指标做了深入的分析和研究，提出了一种基于灰色关联聚类法的软件可信性评估指标的选取方法。     

销售员绩效提成率的动力学研究

本文分析了传统方法在确定销售员绩效提成率的不足,从复杂系统理论的角度,探索研究销售员最优化的绩效提成率,通过分析确定销售系统的边界及其关键变量,利用系统动力学的建模方法建立了销售员绩效提成率模型,对模型进行敏感性和现实一致性测试,并使用Vensim软件进行模拟仿真,最后根据仿真结果分析得出动态较优的销售员绩效提成率。     

政府与煤矿逆向物流的演化博弈分析

本文运用演化博弈论建立了煤矿逆向物流中政府群体和煤矿群体的演化博弈模型,分析博弈双方在不同条件下的动态演化过程及互动机制,为政府群体和煤矿群体在不同情况下的决策提供支持。     

区域产业演化的系统动力学分析——以南京市江宁经济开发区为例

研究利用系统动力学原理提出了区域产业演化过程中的反馈回路模型，并以此来解释区域产业的演化过程。区域产业在正负两类因子的相互作用下，产业吸引力经历了量变到质变的过程，以及区域产业演化的必然路径，并将南京市江宁区的产业发展作为实证来进行分析及预测。     

跨组织流程柔性的演化分析

柔性是企业在剧烈变化的环境中求得生存和发展的一个非常重要的因素,有其演化与发展的路径。在分析跨组织流程和演化经济学有关理论的基础上,通过数学建模分析,提出了一个确定跨组织柔性的理论测量模型,揭示了行为要素和状态要素共同决定了跨组织柔性的演化过程。     

基于演化博弈的企业动态竞争力优越性研究

随着企业外部环境的变化,竞争战略也随之改变,竞争战略的选择成为企业竞争成败的关键。文章在有限理性假设条件下,分析了企业竞争战略的选择以及演化过程,运用演化博弈理论推出企业战略选择的演化稳定策略,验证了动态竞争力作为一种战略的优越性,旨在为企业选择竞争战略提供理论支持。     

基于混沌理论的企业演化机理研究——从资源视角出发

企业的起源与发展是管理科学研究的关键问题之一。目前文献中应用混沌理论对企业的演化研究还较少,且大多从企业整体角度出发进行研究,运用混沌理论从微观资源视角对企业演化机理的研究几乎是空白。基于此,本文基于混沌理论,从微观资源角度对企业演化过程中的六个典型阶段的演化机理及演化过程表现出的混沌特征进行分析。文章最后讨论了本研究的局限和下一步的研究方向。     

价值创造视角下浙商龙头企业商业模式演化机制——基于浙江物产的案例研究

价值创造视角有利于动态考察商业模式演化机制。文章基于价值创造视角,建构并运用PCAA分析框架,选取浙商龙头企业浙江物产进行纵向案例研究,在时间序列层次上,分析了浙江物产发展不同阶段商业模式要素变化情况及商业模式演进。研究发现：（1）商业模式演化是商业模式创新的发展序列,是企业外部环境和企业内在要求共同作用的系统过程,企业发展不同阶段核心要素的变化与商业模式组成维度的演进具有价值创造的动态一致性,其目的都是为了维持企业竞争优势。（2）基于价值创造视角,企业的价值主张由经济价值、能力价值向关系价值演化,价值创造由模块化组织、模块化簇群向无边界企业演化,价值分配与获取也由产业内的内部系统整合、产业内的外部系统整合向产业外的内部系统整合演化。研究深化了商业模式动态性的理解,丰富了浙商商业模式的研究,并为企业管理者和政策制定者提供理论指导。     

Predator–Prey Model Estimates of the Cyclical Profit Squeeze

This paper extends the empirical literature on the cyclical profit squeeze (CPS) theory of crisis by developing a multivariate model with superior decomposition methods. A structural time series (unobserved components) model with trend and structural VAR components is employed. The VAR captures the dynamic cyclical interaction between unemployment and profit's share of income and is interpreted as a linear version of Goodwin's (1967) predator-prey model. Model extensions incorporate the accumulation process and structural shifts. Estimation results for the US economy are used to sort out the controversial relevance of the CPS in the post-1970 period. It is concluded that the CPS is relevant during the period from 1949 to 1985, but is moderately weakened in the post-1970 period. Inconclusive statistical support for the CPS is found for the post-1985 era.     

A Dynamic Model of Size Distribution of Firms Applied to U.S. Biotechnology and Trucking Industries

The present paper attempts to contribute to the existing literature on industry dynamics by proposing a tractable structure for the analysis of the dynamic process governing the size distribution of firms. An analytical model is proposed which describes the density of the cross-sectional distribution of firm size within an industry. The model is based on the theory of diffusion processes, and the method illustrates how information on the time-evolution of size distribution of firms over an extended period of time can be used to make inferences about an underlying process. An empirical application to the evolution of size distribution of population of firms in (i) the U.S. biotechnology industry, and (ii) the U.S. interstate for-hire trucking industry illustrates the applicability of the proposed model in industry studies.     

古代连拱石拱桥动力特性分析

本文以古代桥梁七水滩桥为研究对象，采用MIDAS有限元程序，建立了连续拱桥的空间力学计算模型，利用子空间迭代法计算了该桥梁结构的自振周期和振型，对桥梁的动力特性进行了分析与研究，计算结果可为现代桥梁设计、施工以及使用阶段的健康检测和维护提供技术参考和依据。     

TD-SCDMA系统中一种软件集成智能天线算法

给出了一种采用信干噪比准则的、集成了预多波束天线与LMS自适应天线的软件天线方案,该方案采用开关合并方法,把软件天线输出接到最大输出信噪比的算法输出,实现算法分集.在TD-SCDMA动态模型上对提出的方法进行了仿真,结果表明,采用集成软件天线方案的误码率性能要优于单纯的预多波束天线或LMS自适应智能天线.仿真过程考虑了用户来波方向和用户到基站距离的动态变化,以及功率控制算法和系统同步过程的影响.     

Alternative Models of Trustworthiness of Service Providers

ABSTRACT

The structure and dimensionality of the trustworthiness construct are important theoretical and practical issues. Building on the work of Ennew and Sekhon and based on a sample of 625 respondents, this research identifies a six-factor structure of trustworthiness of service providers in the retail banking sector: customer orientation, integrity and honesty, communication and similarity, shared values, expertise, and ability and consistency. After assessing the reliability and validity of this factor structure, the study also compares the five alternative models of trustworthiness. Results indicated that the trustworthiness model with the six first-order factors has the best model fit. Higher order confirmatory factor analysis was used to identify three second-order trustworthiness factors, which are competency, openness, and benevolence. The various dimensions of trustworthiness are viewable as levers of improving a bank's trustworthiness in the minds of its current and potential customers.     

Modeling preference evolution in discrete choice models: A Bayesian state-space approach

We develop discrete choice models that account for parameter driven preference dynamics. Choice model parameters may change over time because of shifting market conditions or due to changes in attribute levels over time or because of consumer learning. In this paper we show how such preference evolution can be modeled using hierarchial Bayesian state space models of discrete choice. The main feature of our approach is that it allows for the simultaneous incorporation of multiple sources of preference and choice dynamics. We show how the state space approach can include state dependence, unobserved heterogeneity, and more importantly, temporal variability in preferences using a correlated sequence of population distributions. The proposed model is very general and nests commonly used choice models in the literature as special cases. We use Markov chain monte carlo methods for estimating model parameters and apply our methodology to a scanner data set containing household brand choices over an eight-year period. Our analysis indicates that preferences exhibit significant variation over the time-span of the data and that incorporating time-variation in parameters is crucial for appropriate inferences regarding the magnitude and evolution of choice elasticities. We also find that models that ignore time variation in parameters can yield misleading inferences about the impact of causal variables. This paper is based on the first author's doctoral dissertation.     

数字中频GPS信号软件模拟器设计

在对中频GPS信号理论建模与分析的基础上,采用Matlab/Simulink构建了一种精确的数字中频GPS信号软件模拟器,考虑了噪声、欠采样以及接收机时钟误差等的影响.软件模拟器的实现采用Matlab代码编程与Simulink模型混合的方式,方便了不同算法的实现.与传统的GPS信号模拟器相比,文中设计的软件模拟器具备设计灵活、可扩展、易于使用等诸多优点.     

计算机动态取证技术分析和模型实现

本文针对计算机动态取证的数据分析阶段面临的问题,首先介绍了计算机动态取证的概念,然后提出了基于智能代理的动态取证系统模型、智能代理技术在动态取证中的应用以及动态取证中的数据获取,解决动态取证的实时性、智能性、可适应性和扩展性问题。     

Deforestation,foreign demand and export dynamics in Indonesia

This paper presents a dynamic, heterogeneous firm model of investment in environmental abatement and exporting. The model highlights the interaction between firms' environmental investment and export decisions on the evolution of productivity and export demand in timber manufacturing industries. The model is structurally estimated using Indonesian timber manufacturing data that captures firm-level variation in environmental investment and export behavior. The results suggest that environmental abatement has little impact on productivity dynamics, but does encourage growth in export demand. Counterfactual experiments quantify the impact of policy change on trade and abatement decisions.