浅谈金融市场机制

金融市场机制是金融市场五个有机体的“神经系统”。建立和完善我国金融市场机制，是健全和完善我国金融市场的关键。金融市场的机制主要包括：供求机制、竞争机制、利率机制、风险机制和证券价格机制。本文主要分析证券价格机制和风险，找出金融市场的风险管理方法和确定证券价格的政策取向。     

集合竞价市场中证券开盘价格的形成过程研究

证券市场是一个信息不对称的市场，交易机制影响着证券价格的形成。本文对集合竞价市场中证券开盘价格的形成机制进行了数理分析，着重研究了自动集合竞价市场和专业经纪人参与的集合竞价市场中证券开盘价格的形成过程，并对两个市场中产生的证券开盘价格的信息效率进行比较分析。     

证券市场的竞价机制与证券价格形成

证券交易机制是证券市场微观结构理论研究的重要内容,它控制和影响着证券市场五个方面的内容,其中证券价格的确定是其核心,本文运用 博弈论知识,对证券市场的竞价机制与价格形成进行博弈分析。     

金融资产波动性特征研究回顾

Bachelier(1900)运用赌博的方法研究证券价格的特征，提出证券价格遵循随机游走，即布朗运动(Brownian Motion)。从此，对金融资产价格形成机制的研究成为整个金融学的焦点，产生了一系列辉煌的理论：市场有效性理论，市场均衡理论，资本资产定价理论以及期权定价理论等。在金融市场上，投资者需要估计资产的风险期望收益率，     

证券投资组合及其策略研究

一、引言金融市场交易中的基本单元叫证券，投资者通过证券投资来获得未来收益。当投资者用他的资金在几种证券中投资时，就有证券投资组合问题，拥有证券投资组合，表明投资者有权在他的证券投资中得到证券的未来收入（以利息、股息或其他收益形式支付），投资者可以计算证券投资组合的现值，即他的各种证券的目前市场价格，同时用未来的收入与现在价格的比来表示证券投资组合的盈利率，也称证券投资组合收益率。但是，大多数证券的市场价格是根据市场上争购量和抛售量压力的大小而上下波动的，因此在任何给定的时间内，证券的价格是由一个…     

证券价格风险管理探讨

随着我国证券市场的发展 ,企业进行证券投资也将逐步成为经济活动中的常态 ,企业投资证券所面临的风险是不言而喻的。分散化投资能降低证券投资价格的非系统风险 ;通过 β系数的分析 ,能控制企业证券投资价格的系统风险。     

基金持股、止损机制与股价波动

中国A股的机构投资者持股能否降低市场波动这一问题一直存在诸多争论,本文使用了2010—2015年的A股基金和基金管理公司持股的数据,分析了机构投资者中的基金持股与股票价格波动的关系。通过实证分析本文发现:由于止损机制的存在,我国市场中的证券投资基金只能承受有限的噪音投资者风险。整体而言,证券投资基金持股能够降低市场的波动性,对于波动率较高的股票,证券投资基金持股比例与价格波动水平成正向关系;对于波动率较低的股票,基金持股比例与价格波动水平则成负向关系。     

证券价值风险管理探讨

随着我国证券市场的发展，企业进行证券投资也将逐步成为经济活动中的常态，企业投资证券所面临的风险是不言而喻的。分散化投资能降低证券投资价格的非系统风险；通过β系数的分析，能控制企业证券投资价格的系统风险。     

推荐一本大型工具书——评《证券大辞典》

<正> 山西经济出版社最近出版了一部大型工具书《证券大辞典》。这部工具书是在参阅国外有关证券工具书、专著、实务资料和国内近年出版的有关证券书籍的基础上编写而成。该书有以下几个特点:一是体现“大”。全书约230万字,收集词目2400条左右。共分八编,囊括了证券总论、证券发行市场、证券流通市场、证券经营者、共同基金、证券价格理论与价格指标、证券投资及分析、证券     

证券市场上的信息与市场有效性——质疑有效市场假说

有效证券市场被描述为“价格完全反映一切可获得信息的市场”。文章重新思考有效市场假说的逻辑基础 ,对有效市场假说中相对含糊的“信息”的含义展开分析。文章认为 ,决定证券基本价格的基本信息由于涉及未来的不确定性而天然是不完备的 ,因此基本信息并不能为证券定出一个惟一正确的价格 ,这是任何一种证券的本质特征。尽管如此 ,证券的交易却必须在确定的价格下进行 ,因此人为因素必然会对证券价格的形成和变化产生重大影响。人为因素的普遍存在使证券市场上广泛地存在投资者之间的相互博弈 ,这种相互博弈所造成的群体行为正是证券市场非理性行为的逻辑基础。     

我国房价与地价关系的动态研究

在ECM模型的基础上,结合方差分解方法实证分析了我国房价与地价之间的关系。研究结果表明:房价与地价两者之间存在着双向Granger因果关系;房价与地价不论在长期还是在短期都相互影响,但是房价对地价的影响大于地价对房价的影响,且运用方差分解的方法也得到相同的结果,这就说明在房价与地价的关系中,房价对地价的影响比较大。     

Auctions with a buy price: The case of reference-dependent preferences

In an auction with a buy price, the seller provides bidders with an option to end the auction early by accepting a transaction at a posted price. This paper develops a model of an auction with a buy price in which bidders use the auction's reserve price and buy price to formulate a reference price. The model both explains why a revenue-maximizing seller would want to augment her auction with a buy price and demonstrates that the seller sets a higher reserve price when she can affect the bidders' reference price through the auction's reserve price and buy price than when she can affect the bidders' reference price through the auction's reserve price only. The comparative statics properties of bidding behavior are in sharp contrast to equilibrium behavior in other models where the existence and size of the auction's buy price have no effect on bidding behavior.     

Patterns and Determinants of Price Changes: Analysing Individual Consumer Prices in Austria

Abstract. We provide empirical evidence on the degree and characteristics of price stickiness in Austria by estimating the average frequency of price changes and the duration of price spells from a large dataset of individual price records collected for the computation of the Austrian consumer price index. The mean (median) duration of price spells in Austria amounts to 14 (11) months, but there is considerable heterogeneity across sectors and products. We find that price increases occur only slightly more often than price decreases. For both directions, the average magnitude of price changes is quite large (11% and 14%, respectively). The introduction of the euro cash in January 2002 led to more frequent but, on average, smaller price adjustments than usual. Estimating the probability of a price change in a panel probit model, we find a small but positive effect of the price spell duration on the incidence of price changes. Furthermore, product‐specific inflation, the size and the sign of the last price change and the period of the euro introduction significantly affect the probability of a price change.     

Dynamic Model for Market Competition and Price Rigidity

This article presents a price floor model in which durability, unit costs and production period are factors in explaining price rigidity. This article elaborates that cost structure plays an essential role in resolving the inconclusive relationship between market concentration and price rigidity. When the industry is characterized by decreasing returns of scale, the degree of price flexibility decreases as market competition intensifies. The reverse is true when the industry exhibits increasing returns of scale. The factors that cause price rigidity also foster price adjustment asymmetry and price adjustment lag. During times of recession, the model exhibits upward price flexibility as costs increase, but downward price rigidity as costs decrease. Even under forward-looking expectations, the way in which firms adjust prices could look as though they have adaptive expectations. If price stickiness is a characteristic of market competition, then public policies determined by price level could be too drastic for firms in competitive markets.     

城市土地价格波动对房地产业的影响——1999～2005年中国20城市的实证分析

本文利用1999～2005年间的数据对我国地价与房价的关系进行了实证研究.研究结果表明房价对地价有显著影响,地价对房价的影响度较小.在对地价与房价互动传导机制进行研究时,提出了3个传导路径,这些路径上的各个变量大都相互影响.通过分析我们还发现金融支持和土地政策在地价与房价变动中扮演着重要角色,抑制房价不能只控制土地价格,还应从金融支持、投资等方面着手,制定更严格的信贷制度,增加房地产交易税和提高居民可支配收入.本文的研究对于政府制定正确的货币政策和房地产业政策具有积极的参考意义.     

猪肉价格周期、劳动力价格与通货膨胀

猪肉价格周期变动主要是受到劳动力价格水平的变动影响。农民工的工资变动会导致对劳动力价格敏感的养猪户做出放弃养猪(去打工)或增加养猪(放弃打工)的变化,进而导致猪肉价格的升降变动。工业部门中的可贸易部门的工资变动,使猪肉价格周期变动效应放大。关注可贸易部门的劳动力价格的工资变动,可以预测猪肉价格周期,进而可以预测通货膨胀走势。     

Thai inflation dynamics: A view from disaggregated price data

This paper utilizes disaggregated prices at the micro level to examine the patterns of price adjustment in Thailand. Among the key stylized facts, we found that the frequency of price changes are generally low, prices decreases are common, the size of price changes are large relative to the inflation rate, and there is significant dispersion in price levels as well as in the synchronicity of price changes across regions. To better understand the underlying sources of heterogeneous price dynamics, we conduct dynamic factor analyses and highlight the importance of relative price changes in driving the bulk of overall CPI movements. This suggests an important role of non-monetary factors in driving inflation. A significant Phillips curve relation is detected once idiosyncratic price changes are filtered out, reinforcing the importance of disaggregated analysis of price trends in the conduct of monetary policy.     

物价稳定与房价：货币政策视角

住房价格变化是货币政策需要关注的重要指标。本文在梳理现有文献的基础上,研究了物价稳定与房价变动的关系,发现房价是物价变动的重要原因,而M1和贷款利率是房价变动的格兰杰原因。通过进一步建立结构性VAR模型,我们发现房价受到贷款利率影响最大,而物价受到货币供应量的影响最大。针对房价与物价变动的三个场景可以采取不同的货币政策操作：1、房价过快增长,物价保持稳定。此时为了避免房价对未来物价的冲击,又不影响到当前物价的稳定,可以提高贷款利率,并保持相对宽松的货币供给以对冲房价下跌对物价的不利影响,达到抑制房价而不影响物价的效果。2、房价和物价双双过快增长。此时,应调整贷款利率、准备金率和货币供应量,三管齐下加以治理。3、物价过快增长,而房价较为稳定。为了避免打压房价,可以不调整贷款利率、准备金率,仅控制货币供应量。     

Asset price volatility and government revenue

This paper investigates the effect of commercial, residential property and equity price volatility on the variability of cyclically adjusted government revenue. We find significant evidence that asset price volatility increases the variability of government revenue. A 1% increase in equity price volatility increases government revenue variability by 0.37–0.44%. An increase in residential property price volatility increases revenue volatility by about 0.15–0.22%, whereas this effect diminishes to 0.11% in case of commercial property price. This evidence reflects the automatic increase of government revenue variability due to asset price movements and supports arguments in favour of adjusting fiscal variables for both business cycle and asset price changes. However, we also find evidence that equity price variability increases revenue variability even when government revenue is adjusted for both economic and asset price cycles, indicating the presence of more complicated dynamics between fiscal variables and asset price changes.     

Price setting behaviour in Latvia: Econometric evidence from CPI micro data

This paper discovers the driving forces behind Latvian firms' decisions to adjust prices by using various panel logit models, which explain the probability of observing price change by a broad set of exogenous variables. The results show that the consumer price formation in Latvia is a combination of both state-dependent and time-dependent behaviours. On the one hand, frequency of price changes depends on inflation, demand conditions, and the size of last price changes. On the other hand, we observe some elements of time-dependent price setting like price truncation and strong seasonal pattern. We also find several important differences in the price setting behaviour in cases of price increases and decreases. The fact that frequency of price changes in Latvia depends on inflation as well as demand and supply conditions allows for faster price adjustment process in the event of high distortions in the economy.