非利息收入对农村商业银行经营绩效研究——基于面板数据模型

利用中国5家农村商业银行2008-2018年的面板数据,来分析非利息收入占比对经营绩效的影响。结果表明,我国农村商业银行的非利息收入对总资产收益率的影响较为显著,非利息收入占比提升对经营绩效有较大负向影响。农村商业银行应该在稳健提升非利息收入占比的同时合理控制成本,注重非利息收益和成本的协调,优化业务结构,从而促使非利息收入对商业银行产生更大的良性影响。     

基于AHP评价法的中国农村商业银行信贷风险预警系统构建的实证研究

农村商业银行在提供金融服务的同时,也面临来自借款人层面的信贷风险。而这种信贷风险的产生源于信贷市场中的信息不对称、有限理性和羊群效应等。文章利用层次分析法,从借款人角度构建农村商业银行信贷风险的预警体系,设计农村商业银行信贷风险的控制策略。并用江苏省10家农村商业银行2018年的数据进行验证,研究结论显示:个别农商行的信贷风险水平较高,在经济下行期,且有向高风险发展的趋势,建议从构建风险预警体系、完善内部控制建设等方面加强重视和防范。     

Agri‐environmental Instruments for an Integrated Rural Policy: An Economic Analysis

The new Rural Development Regulation of the EU reflects the shift of attention within rural areas from agricultural production towards rural development and embraces both farmers and non‐farm residents. While agricultural production is required to comply with environmental standards, rural areas also have to fulfil the growing demand for landscape, outdoor recreation and wildlife conservation. This paper develops a model of a rural area where farmers and non‐farm residents live together. A central government uses a combination of two‐policy instruments ‐ direct compensation payments and public services ‐ aimed at encouraging farmers to adopt environmentally beneficial practices and at the same time to increase the provision of countryside amenities and the sustained vitality of the rural area. The optimal mix of the policy instruments is evaluated under various governmental objectives. The analysis suggests that a combination of direct payments to farmers with the supply of local public services is a promising tool for rural policy development initiatives in the EU.     

MGNREGA in Tamil Nadu: A Story of Success and Transformation?

Social protection has emerged as a key driver of development policy at the beginning of the twenty‐first century. It is widely considered a ‘good thing’ that has the potential not only to alleviate poverty and vulnerability, but also to generate more transformative outcomes in terms of empowerment and social justice. Based on an ethnographic study of the implementation of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), India's flagship social protection policy, this paper takes a critical look at what this policy's ‘success’ consists of. The study was carried out in Tamil Nadu, a state widely presented as a ‘success’ in terms of MGNREGA's implementation, and describes who participates in the scheme and how success is understood and expressed at different social and bureaucratic levels. In terms of MGNREGA's outcomes, we conclude that the scheme is benefitting the poorest households – and Dalits and women in particular – especially in terms of providing a safety net and as a tool for poverty alleviation. But the scheme does more than that. It has also produced significant transformative outcomes for rural labourers, such as pushing up rural wage levels, enhancing low‐caste workers' bargaining power in the labour market and reducing their dependency on high‐caste employers. These benefits are not only substantial but also transformative in that they affect rural relations of production and contribute to the empowerment of the rural labouring poor. However, in terms of creating durable assets and promoting grassroots democracy, the scheme's outcomes are much less encouraging.     

云南省村镇银行发展面临问题及政策建议的思考——以云南临沧市为例

村镇银行的设立是为解决欠发达地区现有的银行金融机构覆盖率低、网点布局不合理、农村金融支持不足、金融服务缺位、竞争不充分等问题,对我国经济落后地区金融服务体系建设形成有益补充。该文通过对云南省临沧市内的村镇银行进行调研,针对存在的问题和困难,从各角度提出建议措施。     

Agricultural mechanisation and gendered labour activities across sectors: Micro-evidence from multi-country farm household data

The gender difference in employment across sectors is a critical element of gender inequality in rural livelihoods and welfare in developing countries. The role of production technologies, including agricultural mechanisation, in addressing gender inequality is increasingly explored. Knowledge gaps remain, however, including how agricultural mechanisation differentially affects labour engagements across sectors. This study aims to partly fill these knowledge gaps through micro-evidence from seven countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, Tanzania, India, Nepal and Vietnam), using several nationally representative panel data and supplementary data and applying correlated random effects double-hurdle models with instrumental variables. We find that the use of tractors and/or combine harvesters by the household induces a greater shift from farm activities to non-farm activities by female members than by male members. While statistical significance varies, these patterns generally hold consistently across all seven countries studied. These patterns also hold across different farm sizes. While these are short-term relations, agricultural mechanisation proxied by tractors and/or combine harvesters is one of the crucial contributors to gendered rural livelihood. Future studies should more closely investigate these patterns' underlying mechanisms and implications.     

乡村政策动员中的“权力——技术”及其影响

在基层治理现代化背景下,乡镇政权对村干部的政策动员,开始由激励机制、压力机制转向责任机制。乡镇政府面对财权与事权不匹配现实,渐次倚重对制度性资源的技术化调配,塑造乡村"责任共同体"关系,推进政策落地。乡村政策动员中体制性吸纳、组织化协调、技术性约束和伦理化调适等权力—技术支配机制,虽可借助组织内责任关联纽带提高政策动员与执行效率,但该"权力的技术支配网络"同时也容易带来乡村治理的悬浮化、去政治化与泛政治化等"行政消解治理"问题。由此,乡村政策动员应警惕过于强化制度的工具性价值,重新发掘其治理内涵与社会价值,实现乡村治理"治术"与"治道"的平衡。     

Cost structure and technical change in rural banking

Using the multi-product translog cost function, this paper examines the cost structure and technical change occurring within the novel Ghanaian rural banks. The results of the seemingly unrelated error components model indicate substantial unexploited economies of scale in individual products as well as in overall intermediation. There is presence of pairwise complementarity between loans and government securities and between deposits and government securities, but absence of pairwise complementarity between loans and deposits. Overall, capital-using and labour-saving technical change has occurred but efficiency loss in deposit mobilization outweighs the efficiency gains in government securities and lending activities; operation of agencies reinforces the overall efficiency loss. The rural banks must not be hindered from expanding, but in any growth strategy deposit mobilization should take a central position and the cost of operating agencies watched closely.     

The effect of barge and ocean freight price volatility in international grain markets

Short‐run responses of export and domestic shares of total agricultural output to changes in stocks of domestic savings (SAV), development assistance (ODA), private foreign commercial capital (PFX) and other variables is investigated. A profit function approach is used. Time series data for 19 sub‐Saharan African countries are pooled into three panels using similarities in changes in economic policy regime. Statistical evidence suggests that for the panel of countries that were undertaking liberalized economic reforms, the slope coefficients of some of the variables in the models have changed significantly between 1970–1980 and 1981–1993. For the 1981–1993 period, the impacts of ODA, PFX and SAV on export and domestic shares were different for this panel. The effect of increases in agricultural labor was different across the three panels. There is also evidence that productivity growth in the export agriculture sub‐sector is negative in all the groups. It is recommended that to halt the decline in export share of agricultural output in the group of countries that have undertaken substantial improvements in economic policy environment, efforts must be made to reduce the negative impact of domestic savings and agricultural labor, while at the same time working to reduce the bias of development assistance against food security.     

Future Changes in British Agriculture: Projecting Divergent Farm Household Behaviour

The recent decline in farm incomes has focused attention on farmers' uneven propensity to adjust and adapt. Changes in farm policies are slowly redirecting the support paid to farmers in Europe, and further reforms are envisaged. This paper argues that farmers in Britain are likely to pursue highly diverse strategies in this changed context, according to their individual circumstances, values and attitudes. These groups (essentially ideal types) are derived both from in‐depth qualitative interviews and from a cluster analysis of variables relating to the farm and to the farm household's socialisation and attitudes. The paper seeks to draw out the implications of divergent farm household behaviour for future structural change, and for agricultural and rural policy. Opportunities are identified for the UK government to implement the EU Rural Development Regulation in ways that would suit the varied circumstances of British farmers in the postproductivist transition.     

An econometric choice for extension-teaching methods: the Ilorin and Oyo North Agricultural Development Projects' experience

The appropriate combination of extension-teaching methods for rapid farm-technology diffusion and sustained productivity growth in the World-Bank-Assisted Agricultural Development Project in rural Nigeria is examined. The multiple extension-teaching methods in the Ilorin and Oyo North Projects have led to self-defeating and counterproductive results. Using principal-components analysis, the ten extension-teaching methods (variables) are transformed into a linear equation by allocating relative weights to each variable. These weights (coefficients of the equation), which are reasonably unique to each variable, measure the relative importance of the variables and therefore facilitate their ranking in each of the project districts. The usefulness of the principal component model in the World-Bank-Assisted Agricultural Development Projects in particular, and the rural Nigerian agricultural industry in general, are briefly discussed.     

新型农村合作医疗中农户的逆向选择、寻医行为和住院决策——基于重庆市忠县的经验分析

本文利用重庆市首批新农合试点县忠县589户农户问卷调查数据,对门诊和住院医疗服务利用情况进行描述性分析,同时采用Logit模型计量分析了新农合对住院医疗服务利用的影响.结果显示,样本农户的主要就诊机构为乡卫生院和村卫生室,新农合可以显著促进参保农民对医疗服务特别是住院医疗的利用,但也受到逆向选择问题的困扰.     

From Village Artisans to Industrial Clusters: Agendas and Policy Gaps in Indian Rural Industrialization

This paper offers a broad strategic assessment of the experience of rural industrialization in India. It does so from a policy perspective with the aim eventually of highlighting speci?c outstanding policy issues. Rural and small‐scale industrialization (RSSI) has held a special place in Indian development thinking and policy formulation from the outset. This privileged position, however, does not derive from a universal consensus with regard to the rationale and policy framework applicable to this sub‐sector.However, such has been the symbolic power and populist appeal of RSSI that it has retained its special status within diverse strategic and ideological frameworks. But how has the sub‐sector performed? Is the infant industry still in need of paternalistic protection at the age of ?fty? Are there any credible indications of a strategic break with longstanding policy frameworks inherited from the past? Can any crucial policy gaps be identi ?ed? How well does rural small‐scale industry satisfy the extensive developmental claims made by its proponents? These are the general questions addressed.     

Local Action Groups and Rural Sustainable Development. A spatial multiple criteria approach for efficient territorial planning

Rural Sustainable Development is a very important topic under the European Union policy, and it is currently promoted through the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development 2014–2020. This fund is managed at sub-regional level by the Community-Led Local Development approach that involves Local Action Groups in order to promote the objectives of Rural Sustainable Development within rural municipalities. Each Local Action Group applies the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats analysis in order to identify for its own rural municipalities the strategic elements to which it will allocate the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development budget. Nevertheless, this analysis has some general shortcomings, including difficulties in managing a large number of Strength and Weakness factors. In addition, the importance of each factor cannot be measured quantitatively, and the same factor may be characterized both as a Strength and a Weakness. Further difficulties may occur in the case of partnerships between different Local Action Groups, such as disagreement about whether a given factor is a Strength or a Weakness, lack of information about the relationships between Strength and a Weakness factors and decision alternatives, as well as impossibility of ranking the decision alternatives.Thus, this research aims to overcome the drawbacks of the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats analysis and to support Local Action Group partnerships in the sustainability evaluation of their rural municipalities, and therefore to aid the identification of a common Rural Sustainable Development strategy to allocate the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development budget. This decision problem was tackled by applying a Multiple Criteria Spatial Decision Support System that integrates a Geographic Information System with the Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding methods “Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution” and “Dominance-based Rough Set Approach”.In order to demonstrate the validity of this methodological approach, this Multiple Criteria Spatial Decision Support System was applied to a study area of thirteen rural municipalities located in Apulia Region (Southern Italy); these municipalities belong to the same landscape unit, but they are managed by five different policy makers that represent the Local Action Groups. The results provided the maps of environmental, economic and social sustainability rankings of rural municipalities as well as their overall sustainability value. Based on these rankings, a specific Rural Sustainable Development strategy was identified for the allocation of the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development. This methodology provided a common decision making framework that can also be applied to Local Action Group partnerships within the European Union.     

美国新泽西州土地发展权转移银行的运作模式及其启示

研究目的:分析美国新泽西州土地发展权转移银行运作模式,为中国城乡建设用地增减挂钩政策提供参考。研究方法:文献归纳法和比较分析法。研究结果:新泽西州土地发展权转移银行均是为了推动土地发展权转移计划而依法设立、由董事会负责运行管理,具备行政管理和市场参与两大职能,但区域性和地方性的银行在发挥具体职能时各有特点。研究结论:可借鉴新泽西州的经验并结合中国的制度环境,构建适应于跨行政区域土地发展权转移的交易中介机构体系;严格规范政府主导型交易中介机构的行为;发挥交易中介机构教育宣传功能;强调多方共同参与,保护弱势群体利益。     

Directions in Rural Development Policy – Lessons from Both Sides of the AtlanticRichtlinien für die ländliche Entwicklungspolitik – Beispiele von diesseits und jenseits des AtlantiksLes orientations de la politique de développement rural – Enseignements en provenance des deux côtés de l’Atlantique

Directions in Rural Development Policy – Lessons from Both Sides of the Atlantic A workshop comparing rural development policies in Europe and the US found differences in the social values that shape them. These include different attachments to place, concerns with lagging regions, and interests in the assessment of public interventions. There is also a difference in coverage. In the EU environmental and landscape issues form part of the CAP’s Rural Development Pillar, using agriculture as an instrument, whereas in the US these are handled by other policies, some of which can claim deeper historical roots. In the context of rural development policy, the EU attaches intrinsic value to the environment, while in the US the focus is more on economic spin-offs from environmental quality. There are also differences in governance; a complete US view requires taking in Federal, State and local initiatives whereas in the EU a more organised framework is apparent. Nevertheless, when policy is viewed from a bottom-up perspective many common features are found. Improving human and social capital and infrastructure are key factors to stimulating economic development on both sides of the Atlantic, though only some of these drivers form part of the CAP’s Pillar II. While in the EU the role of rural development is set to expand, this is far less certain in the US where the emphasis on agricultural support is likely to continue to dominate the political agenda.     

A rural typology for strategic European policies

The role that the agricultural sector plays in rural areas has considerably changed in the last five decades, and is reflected in a major shift towards multi-dimensional, multi-sectoral land use. Existing European rural typologies are mostly one-dimensional, based on a rather coarse administrative scale data and are unable to define adequately the diversity of the regions involved. The rural typology presented in this paper has been produced as a response to a new policy need for typologies addressing the diversity in regional rurality. This paper describes the method developed and explores the relevance of the results for future rural policies. This new rural typology incorporates two dimensions identified by statistical screening of a range of geographical and socioeconomic data related to the territorial variation of European rural land. The use of high-resolution raster data at 1 km² resolution provides large flexibility for the construction of individual classifications, with a variable number of classes for a variety of objectives. In the example presented, nine divisions were produced, which were subsequently summarised into three rural classes termed Peri-urban, Rural and Deep Rural. The rural typology enables the consistent identification of comparable rural areas and intergradations with urban land in the European territory, and describes the degree of generalisation that is possible. In addition, it provides a spatially explicit framework for scientific analysis and communication to both European policy makers and local stakeholders.     

ESTIMATES OF COST FUNCTIONS FOR PRIMARY SCHOOLS IN RURAL AREAS*

Rural depopulation has put in question the economic viability of many rural institutions. This paper discusses a number of the important conceptual issues that need to be considered when examining the economics of one group of rural institutions, namely schools. Measurement of educational output in particular is fraught with many difficulties. The paper then presents some estimates of cost functions for primary schools in rural areas of New South Wales. The approach combines conventional statistical methods of deriving cost functions with synthetic procedures based on the technology of schooling. It is found that economies and diseconomies of size do exist with respect to certain costs, but it is not clear whether savings can be realized from consolidation of schools, due to the existence of extra pupil transport costs resulting from consolidation.     

适应乡村振兴战略的新型农村住房制度构建设想

在新时期经济社会结构转型和城乡发展关系重塑的背景下,农村住房制度对促进城乡要素流动和助力乡村振兴具有重要意义。本文通过对多个宅基地制度改革试点地区的政策研究、实地调查和访谈,对农民工城乡生活状况的问卷调研,深入分析了我国农村住房发展现状和存在的问题,探究建立适应乡村振兴战略和农村住房需求的新型农村住房制度的意义。基于乡村振兴战略、住房需求层次和农村住房双重属性的理论认识,阐释建立农村新型住房制度的理论意义。从宅基地制度的局限性入手,发现宅基地所固有的成员权属性、福利属性及权能模糊性,是造成制度桎梏与现实发展的诸多矛盾的根源所在。据此,本文提出了构建以满足多层次住房需求的农村住房供应体系及与之相适应的农村住宅用地供应体系为主的新型农村住房制度,并对其影响、效果以及试点实践的可行性进行讨论。新型农村住房制度的建立,为从根本上解决农村住房发展困境,推进乡村振兴战略实施提供可行路径。     

Human and Social Capital in Rural Development – EU and US PerspectivesHuman- und Sozialkapital in der Entwicklung des ländlichen Raums – Perspektiven aus der EU und den USALe capital social et humain dans le développement rural: Perspectives aux États-Unis et dans l'Union européenne

Human and Social Capital in Rural Development – EU and US Perspectives
Human and social capital play critical roles in rural development, in both the US and Europe. The development of these resources at the individual and community levels is both an ultimate goal of sustainable rural development (RD), and a key means to pursue it. Rural areas face a range of specific issues and challenges for human and social capital. In this article we examine some of these, finding similarity in many issues faced by EU and US rural areas, including the trend toward counter-urbanization in some locations. We also give examples of some apparently useful policy and grass-root approaches in the EU and US used to support farmers and in some cases rural people more generally. We assert that the US lags behind the EU in recognising the value of social capital development, but that it could learn from EU experience in terms of alternative approaches and their successes or failures. Traditionally, policies which promote the enhancement of rural human capital and strengthen social capital in rural areas have failed to attract large-scale RD funding or prominence. They have, however, gained in credibility, and influence within the policy rhetoric, in recent years. We suggest that they deserve a higher profile in RD policies given likely future trends and challenges.