Decomposing profit change: Konüs,Bennet and Luenberger indicators

We introduce complementary decompositions of profit change that, relying on the duality between the profit function and the directional distance function, shed light on the different sources of profit growth including measures of technical efficiency, allocative efficiency and technological change. Our decompositions extend the literature on Konüs and Bennet quantity and price indicators to profit change. The first decomposition is ‘exact’ in the sense of Diewert, by completely exhausting the sources of profit change into profit inefficiency change (including technical and allocative inefficiency change), technological change, and output and input price change. The second decomposition equates the Bennet quantity indicator to a productivity measure represented by the Luenberger indicator plus allocative inefficiency change. We deem it ‘complete’ because in contrast to the existing literature, it retains the information on allocative inefficiency change while preventing the existence of residual terms capturing price variations, whose meaningful interpretation has not been addressed until now. Our proposed solution takes advantage of the flexibility of the directional distance function when choosing a suitable directional vector. All decompositions have the same structural form and therefore their components can be compared to each other vis-à-vis, providing alternative measures of equivalent sources of profit growth.     

金融政策与资本配置效率——1992～2005年中国的实证

本文运用一个综合的金融自由化指标以及上市公司层面的数据,检验了1992~2005年中国金融政策从金融压抑向金融自由化的转变,对以托宾Q作为衡量指标的资本配置效率的影响。结果表明,中国金融自由化政策,对提高资本配置效率有积极的影响,并促进了金融深化。然而,就整体而言,中国金融体系对资本配置效率的贡献仍极为有限;相对于银行部门,股票市场能更好地发挥优化资源配置的功能。因此,未来的金融发展政策应考虑扩大资本市场在中国金融体系中的作用。     

An Integrated Assessment of Productivity and Efficiency Impacts of Information Technology Investments: Old Data,New Analysis and Evidence

We reexamine the Information Technology (IT) productivity paradox from the standpoints of theoretical basis, measurement issues and potential inefficiency in IT management. Two key objectives are: (i) to develop an integrated microeconomic framework for IT productivity and efficiency assessment using developments in production economics, and (ii) to apply the framework to a dataset used in prior research with mixed results to obtain new evidence regarding IT contribution. Using a stochastic frontier with a production economics framework involving the behavioral assumptions of profit maximization and cost minimization, we obtain a unified basis to assess both productivity and efficiency impacts of IT investments. The integrated framework is applied to a manufacturing database spanning 1978–1984. While previous productivity research with this dataset found mixed results regarding the contribution from IT capital, we show the negative marginal contribution of IT found in an important prior study is attributable primarily to the choices of the IT deflator and modeling technique. Further, by ignoring the potential inefficiency in IT investment and management, studies that have reported positive results may have significantly underestimated the true contribution of IT. This positive impact of IT is consistent across multiple model specifications, estimation techniques and capitalization methods. The stochastic production frontier analysis shows that while there were significant technical, allocative and scale inefficiencies, the inefficiencies reduced with an increase in the IT intensity. Given that the organizational units in our sample increased their IT intensity during the time period covered by the study, management was taking a step in the right direction by increasing the IT share of capital inputs. Our results add to a small body of MIS literature which reports significant positive returns from IT investments.     

Efficiency measurements and the gains from trade under transaction costs

The paper investigates the measurement of economic efficiency under transaction costs in a second best world. New measurements of technical efficiency, allocative efficiency, and price efficiency are proposed. They have three desirable properties. First, they measure efficiency loss in monetary units. Second, they are additive and can be conveniently summed into an overall efficiency measure. Third, they allow for transaction costs and their effects on prices and trade incentives. The paper investigates the welfare effects of technology choice, government pricing and trade policy, and market imperfections on efficiency. It provides new insights on the measurement of benefits from trade liberalization when trade affects not only price efficiency, but also technical and allocative efficiency.

Parametric estimation of inefficiency in cargo handling in Spanish ports

Port workers services have been usually heavily regulated and reserved exclusively for a special kind of workers, dockworkers, which seems to have been the cause of serious inefficiencies worldwide. During the eighties, law reforms have been introduced to solve this problem. In this paper we analyze and decompose efficiency in cargo handling operations in 19 Spanish ports from 1990 to 1998. The method chosen is that of the parametric estimation of both allocative and technical inefficiency using panel data and a quadratic cost function. Results show that although inefficiency has decreased overall, there has been over utilization of labor regarding capital, and technical inefficiency. This supports the need of further consideration of other aspects including competition.

Exact decomposition of the Fisher ideal total factor productivity index

Decompositions of total factor productivity (TFP) shed light on the driving factors behind productivity change. We develop the first exact decomposition of the Fisher ideal TFP index which contains no debatable mixed-period components or residuals. We systematically isolate five effects of (1) technical change, (2) technical efficiency, (3) scale efficiency, (4) allocative efficiency, and (5) price effect. The three efficiency components (2–4) represent the efficiency of achieving a given target point. Components (1) and (5) capture the changes of the target point. While the technical change component is well-established, changes in the relative input–output prices can have real effects on the scale and scope of the target. Such changes are captured by the new price effect component (5). The new decomposition is compared with existing decompositions both in theory and by means of an empirical application to a panel data of 459 Finnish farms in years 1992–2000.

Allocative efficiency of rural water supply – a globally flexible SGM cost frontier

This contribution investigates the efficiency of water suppliers in rural areas of East and West Germany. A non-radial measure of input specific allocative inefficiency is used to reduce the distributional dependency with respect to the inefficiency parameters. It is based on the demand system of a flexible cost function for the variable inputs labour, energy and chemicals modelled by applying a modified symmetric generalized McFadden functional form. Concavity restrictions, as required by economic theory, are imposed. The analysis reveals that efforts towards increasing suppliers’ allocative efficiency should focus on the relatively inefficient usage of the input chemicals. The input specific allocative model specification was found to be superior to the overall allocative specification.

资本市场开放对股票定价效率的影响——基于沪港通政策的实证分析

以沪港通政策实施为现实背景，选定2012年11月至2016年11月为研究区间，构造股价信息充分性、股价信息准确性和股价对信息的反应速度三项定价效率核心指标，采用双重差分模型实证检验沪港通政策对我国沪市A股定价效率的影响。研究发现，沪港通政策的推出有助于提高我国沪市A股的股价信息充分性、准确性和股价对信息的反应速度，且对国有企业、高股权制衡度企业、高换手率企业的股票定价效率提高更显著。进一步对比发现,资金双向流动交易机制对沪市A股定价效率的影响具有差异性。因此，应有序扩大沪股通、港股通标的股票范围，不断完善资金双向流动机制，提高股票流动性，加速境内外资本市场接轨。     

Estimating DEA technical and allocative inefficiency using aggregate cost or revenue data

In this paper, we address the question of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) evaluation of efficiency when aggregate cost or revenue data must be used. We show that the DEA technical inefficiency measure using total revenues as the single output variable or total costs as the single input variable equals the aggregate technical and allocative inefficiency. We employ this result to estimate allocative inefficiency and construct statistical tests of the null hypothesis of no allocative inefficiency analogous to those of the null hypothesis of no scale inefficiency. We illustrate our method using revenue and personnel data for the top U.S. public accounting firms over 1995–1998. Our empirical results indicate the existence of statistically significant allocative inefficiency in the public accounting industry.

Sectoral bubbles,misallocation, and endogenous growth

Stock price bubbles are often on productive assets and occur in a sector of the economy. In addition, their occurrence is often accompanied by credit booms. Incorporating these features, we provide a two-sector endogenous growth model with credit-driven stock price bubbles. Bubbles have a credit easing effect in that they relax collateral constraints and improve investment efficiency. Sectoral bubbles also have a capital reallocation effect in the sense that bubbles in a sector attract more capital to be reallocated to that sector. Their impact on economic growth depends on the interplay between these two effects. Bubbles may misallocate resources across sectors and reduce welfare.     

The impact of privatization and regulation on the water and sewerage industry in England and Wales: a translog cost function model

After the ten Regional Water Authorities (RWAs) of England and Wales were privatized in November 1989, the successor Water and Sewerage Companies (WASCs) faced a new regulatory regime that was designed to promote economic efficiency while simultaneously improving drinking water and environmental quality. As legally mandated quality improvements necessitated a costly capital investment programme, the industry's economic regulator, the Office of Water Services (Ofwat), implemented a retail price index (RPI)+K pricing system, which was designed to compensate the WASCs for their capital investment programme while also encouraging gains in economic efficiency. In order to analyse jointly the impact of privatization, as well as the impact of increasingly stringent economic and environmental regulation on the WASCs' economic performance, this paper estimates a translog multiple output cost function model for the period 1985–1999. Given the significant costs associated with water quality improvements, the model is augmented to include the impact of drinking water quality and environmental quality on total costs. The model is then employed to determine the extent of scale and scope economies in the water and sewerage industry, as well as the impact of privatization and economic regulation on economic efficiency. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dual allocative efficiency parameters

Estimation of either price or quantity allocative efficiency parameters provides an empirical method for taking into account the presence of allocative inefficiency. We show that the researcher can either (a) estimate a system of input demand functions of the form, x=h(y,k° w),x=h(y,k{\circ} w), obtain estimated values of the price allocative efficiency parameters (the k′s), and then derive the quantity allocative efficiency parameters with a simple calculation or (b) estimate a system of shadow price functions of the form, w=g(y,d° x),w=g(y,\delta{\circ} x), obtain estimated values of the quantity allocative efficiency parameters (the δ′s), and then derive the price allocative efficiency parameters with a simple calculation. These input-specific efficiency measures are then related to the standard measures of efficiency that have appeared in the literature.     

Market reactions to announcements to expense options

The joint hypotheses of informationally efficient markets, transparent financial statements, and adequate accounting disclosure suggest that announcements of changes in the accounting treatment of employee stock options from footnote disclosure to expense recognition should not trigger stock price reactions because free-cash-flows will not change. Event study results from a sample of 241 firms that announce such changes reveal statistically significant negative price changes followed by positive price changes about equal in magnitude. We propose the learning, sophisticated investor, neglected firm, and firm size hypotheses to explain the observed announcement-period stock price reaction.

Comparisons of Economic Inefficiency Between Output and Input Measures of Technical Inefficiency Using the Fourier Flexible Cost Function

The current paper constructs a Fourier flexible cost function, which is commonly known to be a more general function form than the typical translog form, and can globally approximate a true (but unknown) cost function. Both allocative and technical inefficiencies are considered using the Fourier function in the context of the parametric approach. The former is modeled using shadow input prices and the latter is formulated either by adding an extra term of scale parameter (when the Farrell's (1957) input technical inefficiency is assumed), or by correcting all the terms involving output quantities by a scale parameter (when the Farrell's output technical inefficiency is assumed). It is found that sample banks could save up to 23% of total costs, within the range of 3 and 69% uncovered by the previous works, in which allocative inefficiency plays a more important role than technical inefficiency. Furthermore, the cost of misallocated labor input alone constitutes more than 80% of total allocative inefficiency. Financial deregulation starting from 1991 in Taiwan appears to have improved economic efficiency of the banking industry.     

Is technical change embodied in the capital stock or new investment?

The question of technical change and productivity growth is one of the fundamental empirical issues of our time. Surprisingly, Solow's original question of whether technical change is embodied in investment or the entire capital stock has been largely neglected. This paper seeks to bridge the early work of Solow and others on the extent of embodiment of technical change with the more modern approach to estimating the structure of production and technical change using multifactor cost functions. We also attempted to identify the source and structural nature of embodied technical change by decomposing it. Our theoretical model is applied to a pooled cross-section of six OECD countries for the 1965–1989 period. Our preferred model is one of full factor-augmenting embodied technical change because technical change augmenting the entire capital stock tends to overstate quality change in the aggregate capital stock more than that embodied in new investment. This model specification supports the view that technical change is embodied in the stock of capital structure and is embodied in new investment of capital equipment.     

Estimation of technical and allocative inefficiency: A primal system approach

The estimation of technical and allocative inefficiencies using a flexible (translog) cost system is found to be quite difficult, especially when both the inefficiencies are random. In this paper we use the alternative primal system consisting of the production function (translog) and the first-order conditions of cost minimization. The estimation of the primal system is more straightforward and it enables us to estimate observation-specific technical and allocative inefficiencies, and their impact on input demand and cost. We use data on steam-electric generating plants from the U.S. to estimate the model using both Cobb–Douglas and translog production functions.     

Sequence of techniques

This paper analyzes the sequence of techniques in an explicitly dynamic version of the Dobb-Sen choice of techniques model. It is proven that when the modern (capital intensive) technique dominates in an optimal full employment steady state, traditional capital accumulation is characteristic of an optimal path in the labor surplus phase when: (1) traditional capital has the higher maximal growth rate and (2) the initial capital stock is sufficiently poor. The switch date from traditional to modern capital accumulation is shown to be a function of the maximal growth rate and steady shadow price of labor for each technique and the optimal phasing out of traditional capital is characterized. These results are placed in the context of the choice of techniques controversy between Dobb, Sen and Kalecki and its relevance to early Soviet economic development.     

中国分行业资本存量估算：1990~2014年

通过借鉴中国资本存量已有研究文献的成果,以细分行业差别化的折旧率估算为基础,通过分析投资结构和折旧率的关系,估算出第二、第三产业和总量的时变折旧率,系统地估算出1990~2014年总量、三次产业和细分行业的资本存量。估算结果及分析表明:由于投资结构的变化,总量、第三产业折旧率呈下降趋势,第二产业折旧率呈先上升再下降趋势;目前在我国,“过度投资”和“投资不足”并存,且“过度投资”的是资本效率比较低的行业,“投资不足”的是资本效率比较高的行业。解决“投资不足”问题的关键是打破行业垄断,尤其是行政垄断,引入市场竞争机制。     

Can structural change explain the Meese-Rogoff puzzle?

This paper provides empirical evidence suggesting that fundamentals matter for stock price fluctuations once temporal instability underpinning stock price-relations is accounted for. Specifically, this study extends the out-of sample forecasting methodology of Meese and Rogoff (J Int Econ 14:3–24 (1983)) to the stock market after explicitly testing for parameter nonconstancy using recursive techniques. The predictive ability of a present value model based on Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE) is found to match that of the pure random walk benchmark at short forecasting horizons and to perform significantly better at medium to longer-run horizons based on conventional measures of predictability and direction of change statistics. In addition, the presence of a cointegrating relation is found only within regimes of statistical parameter constancy. Augmenting the MR methodology in a piecewise linear fashion yields empirical results in favor of a fundamentals-based account of stock price behavior overturning the recent results of Flood and Rose (2010).     

A Consistent Approach to Cost Efficiency Measurement*

Consistent specifications of the allocative inefficiency function in ‘cost plus input share equations’ systems may be difficult, if not impossible, to find because most plausible ones violate certain reasonable a priori conditions. Moreover, the models to which they lead give rise to highly non‐linear likelihood functions that are very hard to estimate. In an effort to confront these difficulties, this paper adapts an idea first suggested by Greene (1993) that allocative inefficiency ought to be related to input prices and allocative distortions in the input share equations. The system of ‘cost plus input demand equations’ that emerges is estimated by standard seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) techniques using data from private and state firms that operated in Greek manufacturing during the 1979–88 period. Among other findings, the estimates show that overall inefficiency for private and state firms was 63.5% and 102.2%, respectively in comparison with the least inefficient firms in their class. In relative terms these figures imply that state firms were almost 61% less efficient than private firms were. Technical and allocative reasons amounting to 64% and 36%, respectively, accounted for this excess inefficiency of state firms, in addition to differences in the utilization of labour, capital and debt. Lastly, it is found that the magnitudes of technical and allocative inefficiencies depend critically upon a self‐consistent specification of the allocative inefficiency function.