论凯恩斯经济学的重新定向

随着主流凯恩斯主义经济学的流行,原创性的凯恩斯经济学实际上已经“夭折”了,但它的革命思想并没有得到真正的阐发与传播。凯恩斯经济学的进一步研究需要方法论上的重新定向,即以不确定性和货币非中性思想为核心,建立货币经济学的宏观分析框架,并探索一种制度的、历史的和演化的经济学范式,从而为凯恩斯经济学研究奠定现实主义的微观行为基础。     

新凯恩斯主义货币经济学的新发展

垄断竞争和价格的刚性是新凯恩斯经济学的两大基础。垄断竞争造成了经济中的无效率;而价格调整的刚性则被认为是造成经济波动的重要因素。近年来,新凯恩斯主义的货币经济学通过结合垄断竞争和名义刚性两大理论基石,形成了一个标准的货币分析框架,即新新古典综合理论。新凯恩斯主义货币经济学的这次综合在充分吸收了理性预期等新古典经济学概念的同时,从本质上改变了传统的凯恩斯经济理论。     

水平主义对凯恩斯货币思想的重构及其政策启示

后凯恩斯主义中的水平主义继承了凯恩斯《货币论》《就业、利息和货币通论》和"后通论文本"中的货币内生和非中性思想,并发展出"生产的货币理论"的完整框架,认为在复杂的经济系统中,信用货币数量受经济主体的融资需求驱动,基础货币供给由银行体系的储备需求决定,而利率则是货币当局设定的外生变量和主要的货币政策工具,经济主体"获利的希望"和"能支配足够的资金"共同决定宏观经济的规模和速度.水平主义的理论图景与政策主张有利于深化对货币本质和运动规律,以及货币政策作用机制与有效性的认识.     

不确定性理论与金融经济学的发展

金融学是是研究不确定性条件下货币和资产时间配置的学科,不确定性分析是整个金融理论的中心内容。凯恩斯创立的现代不确定性经济理论进一步推动着金融经济学的发展,使得风险条件下的资产定价和市场效率理论取得了丰硕的研究成果。本文旨在对不确定性条件下金融经济学的进展情况作一梳理,从而揭示其理论和应用的基本内涵。     

房地产价格在货币政策传导中的作用分析

货币政策传导机制是研究货币政策及其工具如何通过各种经济变量对实际经济产生作用的问题，在这一领域的研究从早期凯恩斯主义提出的利率传导机制，货币主义补充的非货币资产价格机制，到新古典宏观经济学秉承古典货币中性论，和新凯恩斯主义的创新强调银行资产的信贷渠道，众多学派围绕“货币是否是面纱”及“货币非中性时影响实际经济途径”的争论使西方货币政策传导机制理论研究呈现出众说纷纭的丰富形态，随着理论相互间的吸收与融合，我们可以把所有传导机制概括成两大类.     

内生货币供给理论述评

内生货币供给理论是货币经济学的重要内容之一。通过系统、全面地阐述、评价内生货币供给理论和观点———从斯图亚特到当代的后凯恩斯主义内生货币供给理论及其发展,我们认为,依照内生货币供给理论进行宏观调控对于我国目前经济形势下所执行的货币政策措施具有启示作用。     

货币经济学研究的智慧之光（上）——蒋硕杰教授两本论战文集读后

台湾已故名经济学家蒋硕杰教授的货币政策理论极具创造性，我们不仅应了解货币经济学体系，而且应知道其背景性。希望学界加以研究以便为经济金融抉择提供一个新的非凯恩斯主义的理论参照系。     

古典货币非中性理论研究

对从休谟到穆勒期间的一些古典学者的货币理论进行了研究,结果表明绝大多数古典经济学家都认为货币具有短期非中性效果,他们提出了至少七种货币短期影响产出的非中性途径,构成了货币非中性理论的完整体系,对古典学派以后的经济学家产生了巨大影响。     

有效需求、货币利息率与凯恩斯革命——纪念《就业、利息与货币通论》出版八十周年

凯恩斯革命无疑是20世纪经济科学中的大事,但由于《就业、利息与货币通论》的高度争论性和晦涩难懂,关于凯恩斯对经济学的具体贡献一直存在着争议.凯思斯认为作为传统就业理论的劳动供给理论、萨伊定律和利率理论均建立在特殊假设前提之上,这使得传统经济学成为分析特定经济状态的特殊经济学.凯恩斯提出了有效需求原理作为一种新的就业理论和一般性的经济分析框架.其中,企业家对未来市场需求的预期、生产成本条件和企业家之间的竞争决定了均衡就业水平.同时,货币的特殊性质使得货币利息率维持在较高水平,阻碍了投资增长,造成有效需求不足,使得经济停滞在非充分就业的均衡.因此,凯恩斯的有效需求原理是以建立在货币特殊性质基础上的利息率理论为中心环节的一般性的就业理论.但《就业、利息与货币通论》之后的宏观经济学并没有沿着有效需求原理的逻辑发展,凯恩斯革命被逆转了.     

后凯恩斯主义内生货币供给理论的发展——分析方法与理论模型

后凯恩斯主义的内生货币理论打破了货币供给前提,提出中央银行既没有能力控制基础货币,也不愿去控制基础货币。他们认为货币的供给是内生的,即由信用驱使、需求决定的,与商业银行和企业的利润最大化行为有关。结合最新的实证研究对后凯恩斯主义的内生货币理论进行了系统的评介,并认为其将与宏观经济、开放经济相结合向更广、更深的方向发展。     

The breakdown of the IS–LM synthesis: implications for post-Keynesian economic theory

The monetarist and the new classical economics attack routed the IS–LM version of Keynesian theory and the large scale econometric models from the centre of macroeconomic research. However monetarism and the new classical economics were more successful as a critique of the IS–LM orthodoxy than as a basis for fruitful research and policy analysis.

Post-Keynesian economists also attack the IS–LM orthodoxy, mainly because it misspecified ‘… the economic society in which we actually live’. Post-Keynesians that emphasized financial and labour markets argued that properties of the real world economy made instability normal results ofmarket interactions.

The vacuum in main line theory that developed as the shortcomings of monetarism became evident led to a revival of interest in basic Keynesian propositions. This has spawned what is now labeled a new Keynesian economics. New Keynesian economists conform to the modeling standards set by the new classical rational expectations school but claim to get Keynesian results. To a degree these results are compatible with propositions of post-Keynesian economics.

It is suggested that a convergence between the new and the post-Keynesian economics can be expected, and the result is likely to be fruitful.     

The Significance of the Monetary Context of Economic Behavior

The dominant paradigm in economics views economic behavior as allocative activity in a neutral, C-M-C' economy. As a consequence, money is treated as a veil that is inessential to the real functioning of the economic system. This paper argues that one of Keynes's fundamental insights is the significance of the monetary context of economic behavior. This insight has been developed by the post-Keynesian theory of money as a "time-machine vehicle" that provides the causal link between uncertainty and unemployment. The Circuitist theory of money as the means of final payment provides a complementary radical perspective on the significance of the monetary context. This paper investigates the methodological and theoretical implications of these radical monetary theories and assesses their contribution towards the development of a general theory of a monetary production, M-C-M' economy.     

A note on “Rethinking liquidity creation: Banks,shadow banks and the elasticity of finance”

Abstract

In their recent article, Yeva Nersisyan and Flavia Dantas proposed to amend the endogenous money theory to account for the activity of nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) and of foreign banks. It is indeed argued that the traditional post Keynesian and circuitist approaches are overly narrow because they rely on a limited definition of money. Consequently, these approaches are focused on commercial banks (that create money) and regard other financial institutions as mere intermediaries that intermediate funds from surplus units (savers) toward deficit units (borrowers). Because it treats NBFIs as mere intermediaries, the authors argue that the traditional post Keynesian framework is no longer relevant for the analysis of the contemporary financial system. We believe that this critique is not justified. Using balance sheet analysis, we show that the destabilizing role of NBFIs can be taken into account within the traditional post-Keynesian framework.     

凯恩斯革命中的创新与继承

凯恩斯革命是从理论、政策、方法三个层面展开的。货币非中性论、货币供给外生论、对萨伊定理的彻底否定构成凯恩斯革命的理论基础;财政政策和货币政策是凯恩斯革命赖以实现的政策工具;对经济学研究对象的纠偏、破除传统的两分法和首创货币经济学是凯恩斯革命赖以完成的方法论。与此同时,《通论》内在逻辑上的不一致性,与经典学派崇尚经济自由传统的趋同,决定了凯恩斯革命中的继承。由于经济运行的常态是非充分就业均衡,《通论》必然具有永恒价值。     

Kaldor and Robinson on money and growth

Post-Keynesian theory was developed as an alternative to mainstream neoclassical economics. However, post-Keynesians have not succeeded in getting their message through, partly because of the difficult and controversial economic issues upon which they embarked, partly because they emphasized, both in their monetary and growth analysis, theories that do not radically depart from the mainstream of economics. This paper therefore argues that post-Keynesian economics got off on the wrong foot. Rather than having emphasized the works of Minsky and (the early) Kaldor in money, post-Keynesians should have considered the contributions of Robinson and Kahn. Also, rather than having emphasized the work of Robinson and Harrod on growth, they ought to have given greater emphasis to Kaldor's demand-oriented growth theory. Hence, as a simplification, post-Keynesians should have considered Robinson on money, not Kaldor; and Kaldor on growth, not Robinson.     

Post-Keynesian Theory: An Overview

Kregel provides the reader with an understanding of the evolution and current position of post-Keynesian economics. As in the past, its practitioners seek to explain the level of output and employment and its growth and distribution, recognizing “that money enters into the economic scheme in an essential and peculiar manner.”     

凯恩斯经济学方法的科学哲学评价

主流经济学在凯恩斯经济学形成之后,一直存在着争论,如何理解凯恩斯经济学理论的真谛,是当前研究现代经济学一个值得关注的问题,而在理解凯恩斯经济学理论中有关他的研究方法的哲学思想内涵是方法论的根本,也是构成其经济学理论的重要组成部分。本文以凯恩斯的《通论》为基础,分析凯恩斯经济学方法的哲学基础,并在方法论意义上进行了评价。分析结果表明,对于凯恩斯经济学的理解应当以全面发展的眼光看待,宏观经济学只是其理论起源的一个方面,追求经济思维的合理性和适应人类经济活动的需要是凯恩斯经济学方法论的根本。     

Keynes's dialectic?

This paper identifies a dialectical method of analysis in thesocial sciences which, potentially, can be applied to any socialsystem that evolves historically. It is shown that a dialecticexists in post-Keynesian economics, arising from the oppositionof conventional and innovative behaviours under conditions offundamental uncertainty. This dialectic is compared to and contrastedwith the dialectical interaction between forces and relationsof production in historical materialism.     

School Expenditures and Educational Discrimination under the Fourteenth Amendment

This paper examines the decline in use of the Knight-Keynes uncertainty concept in mainstream economics. Using electronic archives, it shows that the frequency of its appearance in leading journals of economics has fallen rapidly from the 1950s. As well as to the declining popularity of Keynesian ideas since about 1970, the decrease in this use of the uncertainty concept is additionally related to the increasing mathematical formalization of economics and to the prevalence of a positivist emphasis on prediction. Some possible causes of this formalization are examined. Finally the essay discusses the prospects for a broadening of economics within universities, beyond a relatively narrow preoccupation with predictive formalism and including a reinvigorated Keynesianism.