Globalisation,Growth and Convergence

This paper, devoted to the study of globalisation, analyses two distinct but closely related issues: First, it aims at evaluating disparities in the degree of globalisation observed in a sample of 101 countries over the period 1970–2005. Second, the paper tries to shed some light to the much debated issue of whether globalisation affects economic growth and, in so doing, whether convergence in globalisation brings about convergence in per capita income. The results obtained are both encouraging: on the one side, as it is shown that there has been a clear process of globalisation convergence; on the other, the paper concludes that globalisation has been one of the main drivers of economic growth, thus fostering convergence in per capita income.     

The Evidence on Globalisation

Globalisation is blamed for many socioeconomic shortcomings. I discuss the consequences of globalisation by surveying the empirical globalisation literature. My focus is on the KOF indices of globalisation that have been used in more than 100 studies. Early studies using the KOF index reported correlations between globalisation and several outcome variables. Studies published more recently identify causal effects. The evidence shows that globalisation has spurred economic growth, promoted gender equality and improved human rights. Moreover, globalisation did not erode welfare state activities, did not have any significant effect on labour market interaction and hardly influenced market deregulation. It increased, however, within‐country income inequality. The consequences of globalisation thus turn out to be overall much more favourable than often conjectured in the public discourse.     

Does economic globalisation affect income inequality? A meta-analysis

A large volume of econometric literature has studied the impact of economic globalisation on income inequality around the world. However, reported econometric estimates vary substantially, which makes it difficult to draw valid conclusions. This paper presents a quantitative summary and analysis of existing estimates regarding the globalisation–inequality relationship. We use a new data set consisting of 1,254 observations from 123 primary studies. By applying meta-analysis and meta-regression methods, we obtain several main findings. First, globalisation has a (small-to-moderate) inequality-increasing effect. Second, while the effect of trade globalisation is small, financial globalisation shows a more sizeable and significantly stronger inequality-increasing impact. Third, we find an average inequality-increasing impact of globalisation in both advanced and developing countries. Fourth, education and technology moderate the impact of globalisation on income inequality.     

Three decades of globalisation: Which countries won,which lost?

The world average exports-to-GDP ratio increased from 17% in 1985 to 27% in 2015. Hence, world exports have grown much faster than world GDP. However, despite this overall trade integration, which is a key aspect of globalisation, the exports-to-GDP ratios have declined for 29 of the 118 countries with such data from 1985 to 2015. Some countries have been driving globalisation, while others have become marginalised. This paper examines three decades of globalisation to shed some light upon which countries might be considered winners and which countries might be considered losers of globalisation. After summarising the evolution of income and income per capita, we examine the evolution of exports and net inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). Contradictory to previous decades, we show there are now many countries from all income groups that have either experienced marginalisation or been driving globalisation. We then use novel regression analysis to review the robustness of generally accepted drivers of globalisation and marginalisation, with education and macroeconomic stability being the two most robust determinants.     

总量生产函数的构建:经济增长理论评析

构建总量生产函数是建立经济增长模型的关键。与经济增长理论的发展相一致,总量生产函数的性质也在发生着巨大的变化,其发展历程可以描述为:从固定技术系数总量生产函数开始,分别经历了新古典总量生产函数、资本收益递增总量生产函数的发展阶段。目前正处于一个资本收益递减但趋向于一个正数的总量生产函数的形成阶段。     

The globalisation–welfare state nexus: Evidence from Asia

How globalisation influences social expenditure has been examined for industrialised countries. Globalisation has often been shown to be positively associated with social expenditure in established industrialised countries, a finding that corroborates the compensation hypothesis. Scholars have focused on industrialised countries, because social expenditure is difficult to measure in developing countries. I use new data on social expenditure for Asian non‐OECD countries. Globalisation is measured by the new KOF Globalisation Index. My results do not suggest that globalisation influenced social expenditures in Asia. Neither do the results suggest that the nexus between globalisation and social expenditures varied across high‐income countries, such as Hong Kong and Singapore, and lower‐income Asian countries or across Asian regions. It is conceivable that Asian citizens did not demand increasing social support when globalisation proceeded rapidly because they enjoyed family and other private assistance. Asian countries also have weaker tax and labour market institutions than OECD countries and have therefore more difficulties in increasing social expenditure.     

Globalisation and Economic Growth: A Historical Perspective

This paper reviews the historical evidence on the relationship between globalisation and economic growth. Divergence in the growth of income and industrialisation in the twentieth century is documented but it is also noted that international income inequality appears to have decreased since about 1870 and that long-run trends in the Human Development Index are much less pessimistic about the experience of developing countries. It is argued that trade liberalisation has been good for growth on average but that successful capital liberalisation requires high institutional quality and that the developmental state may have an important role to play in the early stages of development. The recent claim by Robert Lucas that the 21st century will see a massive reduction in income inequality across countries in a globalised world economy is sceptically discussed in the context of empirical evidence that bad institutions are often persistent and that geography is still a major factor in explaining international income differences.     

Top income shares in OECD countries: The role of government ideology and globalisation

This paper investigates how government ideology and globalisation are associated with top income shares in 17 OECD countries over the period 1970 to 2014. We use top income shares of the World Wealth and Income Database (WID ). Globalisation is measured by the KOF index of globalisation. Static and dynamic panel model results show that the top income shares increased more under right wing governments than under left wing governments. The ideology‐induced effect was stronger when globalisation proceeded more rapidly. Globalisation was positively correlated with income shares of the upper‐middle class (P99–P90), but negatively with income shares of the rich (top 1%) in the overall sample. We show that the relationship differs between Anglo‐Saxon countries and other OECD countries. Globalisation was more pro‐rich in Anglo‐Saxon countries than in other OECD countries. Government ideology does not turn out to have a statistically significant effect on top income shares in Anglo‐Saxon countries after the 1980s, whereas ideology‐induced differences in the distributional outcomes continued in other OECD countries.     

Ökonomische Wurzeln des Populismus

Increasing populism in developed Western countries such as Germany can be traced to various causes, including economic ones. In these countries, advancing globalisation and technological progress lead to labour market and income effects that have had a negative impact on certain groups of people (wage reduction, increase in the risk of unemployment). The fear of such developments — whether justified or unfounded — results in the desire for political decisions that push back the catalysts of these economic developments. Therefore, international trade with low-wage countries and labour saving technological progress in particular often breed populist parties.     

Robustness of the KOF index of economic globalisation

The KOF indices of globalisation are the most used globalisation measures in international economics literature, but it uses the nominal trade openness measure to construct the globalisation index. In this paper, we use real trade openness instead of nominal trade openness and recalculate the KOF economic globalisation index over the period 1970–2013. Using the panel data regressions for 146 countries, we revisit the economic globalisation–economic growth nexus to investigate the robustness of the KOF economic globalisation index. We consider several possibilities in model specifications, and the results show that using nominal trade openness measure in calculating the KOF globalisation index is statistically robust. In addition, the KOF economic globalisation index in logarithmic form introduces a more robust outlook in the panel data regressions—a lower bias is emerged by considering different trade openness measures to calculate the globalisation level.     

Deutschlands hohe Ungleichheit verursacht wirtschaftlichen Schaden

“Welfare for everyone”, according to former chancellor and economics minister Ludwig Erhard, has been the credo of Germany’s economic and social policy for the past 60 years. However, Germany is increasingly failing to achieve this objective.Germany is a country of enormous inequality – income, wealth and opportunities are distributed more unequally in Germany than in almost any other industrialised country. This inequality imposes huge economic costs for Germany, as evidenced by lower economic growth and declines in other indicators of well-being. And it has triggered a harmful fight among groups of society for public resources. This fight will further intensify with the dramatic changes Germany is currently undergoing, from demographic change to globalisation to the migration challenge. The main culprit for the high and rising inequality is not a lack of public redistribution of income and wealth, but rather the unusually high inequality of opportunity, through which an ever higher share of citizens is deprived of the chance to develop and use their talents and skills. Such barriers have become massive, beginning already in early childhood.     

Impacts of tangible and intangible elements of Aid for Trade on the globalisation of developing countries

The Aid for Trade initiative was launched by the WTO in 2005 to help developing countries build their supply-side capacity and trade-related infrastructure to improve their capacity in the global market. This study investigates the impacts of both the tangible and intangible elements of this initiative on the economic, social and political globalisation of recipient countries. Intangible elements of Aid for Trade (aid for trade policy and regulation) may be considered as the software of Aid for Trade, while tangible elements (aid for economic infrastructure and building productive capacity) are the hardware. Countries that receive Aid for Trade can use both types of elements to succeed in globalisation. This research hypothesises that the tangible elements of Aid for Trade have a singular effect on the overall level of globalisation since they are expected to only increase the level of economic globalisation. Moreover, we expect that the intangible elements of Aid for Trade will have multiple effects on the overall level of globalisation as they have an impact on not only economic aspects but also social and political aspects of it. Using the dataset of Aid for Trade from 2002 to 2015, we find that the intangible elements of Aid for Trade have increased the recipients' level of overall globalisation.     

Makroökonomische Effekte eines bedingungslosen Grundeinkommens

The introduction of an unconditional universal basic income would change the entire system of income distribution and have far-reaching implications for aggregate labour supply, labour demand and wages. Changes in the labour market would subsequently lead to adjustments in the markets for goods and services, as well as in capital markets. This would impact productivity, prices, income distribution, international competitiveness and economic growth. Furthermore, financing such a policy would affect public finances. This article outlines possible macroeconomic consequences of a universal basic income.     

Globalisation,trade, and growth: A macroeconomic perspective

On the basis of economic theory, what effects can globalisation be expected to have on trade and growth? Does the empirical evidence support this? What developments will the next phase of globalisation bring?     

The impact of economic globalisation on unemployment: The Malaysian experience

Malaysia plans to emerge as one of the high-income economies by 2020 through the Economic Transformation Programme. A key component of this programme is to adopt more trade liberalisation policies that can generate a variety of economic activities, particularly more jobs. Although the integration with the world market bears the promise of prosperity for the developing and transitional economies, such integration may also adversely affect such economies. Preceding studies regarding labour market and international trade policies are still inconclusive and raise questions that require further examination; particularly in terms of whether exposure to the external sector can create or destroy jobs. The present study evaluates how Malaysia labour market has responded to the economic globalisation of the country. The study focuses on the long-run impact of economic globalisation on unemployment within the period between 1980 and 2014. The study uses autoregressive distributive lags method to examine the pattern of the relationship. The results show that economic globalisation have significant and positive impact on reducing unemployment in Malaysia in the long run. These findings indicate that policy-makers in Malaysia should facilitate the economy globalisation to maintain the current low level of unemployment rate.     

收入分配差距、金融信贷约束与中国外贸失衡

20世纪90年代以来,与中国持续性贸易失衡相伴随的重要现象,就是国内收入分配差距问题日益突出。收入分配差距的拉大,使得中低收入者因占有的社会总产出份额下降而致使其消费和投资能力相对下降,在金融信贷约束下,"过剩"的总产出又难以通过借贷的方式在国内进行消费和投资,最终"被迫"出口到国际市场,因而对贸易失衡产生了重要影响。进一步的计量检验结果验证了上述理论假说的正确性,即:收入分配差距和金融信贷约束的确是中国外贸失衡的重要促成因素。据此,在中国实施进出口贸易平衡发展战略的过程中,应该更加关注缩小收入分配差距在其中所起的重要作用。     

Does globalisation affect the shadow economy?

We investigate the impact of globalisation on the shadow economy using panel data for 119 countries. Our evidence suggests that globalisation matters in mitigating shadow development. More specifically, we find that political globalisation reduces the shadow economy, whereas economic and social globalisations have limited statistical support after controlling for important factors that affect the size of the shadow economy. Overall, these results are robust after accounting for an alternative measure of the shadow economy, outliers, endogeneity and alternative model specifications.     

Globalisation,economic growth and energy consumption in the BRICS region: The importance of asymmetries

This paper examines the asymmetric impact of globalisation and economic growth on energy consumption in BRICS countries, applying the NARDL bounds approach to explore the presence of asymmetric cointegration across variables. The empirical results reveal that energy consumption is positively and negatively affected by the positive and negative globalisation shocks, respectively. A positive shock in economic growth promotes energy consumption, while a negative shock reduces energy consumption.     

Factor allocation,economic growth and unbalanced regional development in China

On the basis of development accounting techniques and a factor misallocation framework, we use panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2013 to assess how factor allocation affects economic growth and unbalanced regional development in China. In particular, we decompose economic growth into three parts, namely sector productivity (SP ), factor market efficiency (FME ) and factor endowment (FE ). We then conduct counterfactual analyses to investigate the short and long‐run roles of factor allocation in the income distribution across provinces. The results show that SP , FME and FE can explain 23%, 8.5% and 68.5% of economic growth, while labour, capital and energy reallocation account for aggregate productivity growth of about 47%, −4.8% and −0.1%. Furthermore, when the factors are efficiently allocated, transferring labour (capital, energy) from agriculture (service, industry) to the other sectors will increase the income per capita by 29.5% and 42.5% in the short and long term. Meanwhile, efficient factor allocation accounts for 32% and 29.7% of aggregate productivity and reduces the income variation across provinces by 25.5% and 23% in the short and long run, respectively.     

Nach der Wahl: Was sind die wichtigsten wirtschaftspolitischen Herausforderungen?

Even though Germany’s economy is currently going strong, the country still faces enormous challenges if it wants to maintain and increase this prosperity. The new government should take this opportunity to set the course for the future by encouraging the digitalisation of the economy and the society as well as by ensuring that the ongoing energy transition is sustainable and efficient. Other challenges include the adverse effects of globalisation on parts of society and the uneven distribution of income and wealth. But the actual magnitude of the government’s room to manoeuver is up for debate. The new government’s fiscal space might be more limited than it seems, since an automatic adjustment of the income tax to inflation and growth is required to end the bracket creep. Given that transfer programmes are being phased out, the federal income tax surcharge to finance German unification also needs to be abolished. Further budget pressure stems from the pension system and from demands by state and local as well as European governments. The new German government should use the next governing period to initiate fundamental reforms of economic and fiscal policy that will provide adequate answers to long-run challenges.