货币政策对居民就业的影响——基于MIU模型的分析

文章基于包含居民和企业的一般均衡分析框架,通过构建内嵌劳动力供给的MIU模型,分析货币供给增长率变动对居民就业的影响。结果表明：如果居民消费者的相对风险规避系数大于（或小于）1,那么扩张性货币政策将会显著促进（或抑制）居民就业。鉴于目前中国居民消费者的相对风险规避系数较高,因而推断货币当局实施扩张性的货币政策将能有效促进居民就业,对中国的经验分析也证实了这一推论。但从长期来看,随着市场机制和社会保障制度的逐步完善,居民消费者的相对风险规避系数将不断下降,因而保持货币政策定力,创新宏观调控方式,积极推进经济结构调整才是解决居民就业问题的有效途径。     

基于CGE模型对中国基础设施建设的减贫效应分析

本文构造了一个含有详细居民分组的中国可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型，对城乡分割的劳动力市场、各类家庭的劳动力供给行为等进行了深入刻画。通过分别在长期和短期的时间框架下进行模拟分析，我们发现：降低转移成本、增加农村转移劳动力在城市就业是促进基础设施发挥减贫作用的关键环节。     

劳动力流动、征税方式转变与地区福利增进

研究目标：在劳动力流动程度的不同阶段研究税率结构变化与效率和公平之间的关系。研究方法：构建了征税方式转变与劳动力跨区域流动的两地区一般均衡模型进行理论模拟,采用面板门限模型进行实证检验。研究发现：随着劳动力流动程度的提高,在保持宏观税负不变下由增值税转为消费税的税率结构变化可以提升效率水平和改善公平状况。其中征税方式转变对于效率的正影响越来越大,对于公平的影响也由负转正,劳动力流动存在显著的门限效应。研究创新：结合劳动力流动影响因素进行消费税和增值税的税收扭曲效应差异机制的比较研究。研究价值：统筹协调税制结构改革与户籍制度改革,促进劳动力流动与税率结构优化,实现福利增进的双重红利。     

区域间劳动力迁移对经济增长和地区差距的影响

本文利用一个30区域可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,根据中国实际劳动力流动规模,并考虑了汇款、外地与本地劳动力工资差异、人口流动滞后于劳动力流动等多种因素,定量分析了区域间劳动力迁移的经济影响。结果显示,区域间劳动力迁移可以有效改善配置效率,提高经济增速缩小地区间生活水平差距,但由于在一国内部资本流动性很强,存在"资本追逐劳动"现象,因此并不能缩小人均GDP的地区差距。虽然劳动力迁移显著提高了输出的人均收入和消费水平,但单纯的劳动力输出并不能缩小同发达地区人均产出的差距。     

中国双向直接投资均衡度的演变特征及对融资约束的影响

研究目标:揭示中国双向直接投资均衡度的时空演变特征，测算区域融资约束，分析中国双向直接投资对融资约束的影响。研究方法:运用动态度和均衡度衡量双向直接投资的流动情况，基于MSAR模型考察不同时期双向直接投资均衡度之间的依赖性。研究发现:IFDI和OFDI相向运动导致中国双向直接投资渐趋均衡，理论层面双向直接投资对融资约束的影响具有不确定性，实证发现在政策扭曲等内生制度安排下双向直接投资均衡度并未缓解融资约束，市场化水平减弱了双向直接投资均衡度对融资约束的负向作用。研究创新:构建双向直接投资均衡度将IFDI和OFDI综合起来；度量区域融资约束；阐明双向直接投资对区域融资约束的影响机理。研究价值:为双向直接投资与融资约束的良性互动提高决策参考。     

消费率稳态、演进及中国经济持续均衡增长的现实选择——基于R-C-K模型的分析框架

本文在R-C-K模型的分析框架下构建稳态消费率决定模型,进而分析中国经济发展过程中的消费率演进及与经济增长关系.主要研究结论有:(1)均衡增长路径上的稳态消费率是最优消费率,由个人主观时间贴现率、相对风险厌恶系数、资本产出弹性、技术进步率、折旧率和劳动增长率等因素所决定;(2)随着工业化进程推进,稳态消费率呈现出先变小再变大的U型曲线演进趋势,实际经济生活中的消费率围绕稳态消费率上下波动;(3)1978年以来,中国经济增长绩效较好,消费率演进并无异常,符合经济发展工业化初中期阶段消费率演进的一般规律,但2001年后,消费率快速下降并大幅偏离稳态消费率,一定程度上降低了经济增长的内生性,进而影响到中国经济的持续均衡增长.根据经济发展的一般规律,提倡再度和适度工业化,通过优化产业结构鼓励发展现代服务业和完善社会保障制度、缩小收入差距等手段扩大消费需求对经济增长的贡献程度刻不容缓.     

FDI对中国区域经济及创新的影响研究:来自十年的面板数据证据

中国是最大的外资流入国,外资对中国区域经济的影响不容忽视。文章利用中国统计年鉴1995年~2004年的面板数据对外商直接投资(FDI)如何影响中国区域经济进行研究。在比较了三种估计面板数据的模型后,我们选取了针对本文最优的随机效应模型结果进行解释。实证结果表明,外商直接投资实际利用额与中国区域经济水平存在显著的正相关关系。而实际情况恰恰是FDI投资是不均衡的,这部分导致了中国区域经济发展的不平衡,进而也导致了区域创新能力的不同。因此,可以考虑相关政策的倾斜,使得FDI的整体效用达到最优。     

基于集聚经济的流动商贩空间结构研究——以北京市朝阳区为例

非正规经济已成为城市经济的重要组成部分,然而目前仍然缺乏以城市或区域为尺度、以空间统计为方法的非正规经济空间结构研究。流动商贩是非正规经济的重要部门,结合地统计方法(Geo-Statistics)和空间结构模型,研究北京市朝阳区流动商贩区内分布。研究发现:区域内流动商贩分布呈现出显著的集聚分布,并在区内具有多个中心地。其与人口的中心地相互耦合,反映出居民需求在形塑流动商贩集聚格局中的重要影响,以及非正规经济的依附性特点。而流动商贩与正规商业的中心地在本区域并不吻合,两者并没有发生明显的集聚,这也从一个侧面反映了北京的城市空间分异。     

要素流动、产业集聚与空间工资差异研究——基于新经济地理学视角

本文从新经济地理学视角出发,以单一劳动力流动CP模型和单一资本流动FC模型为基础,将模型进行扩展,研究劳动力要素和资本要素同时流动情形下的产业集聚机制以及产业集聚机制下要素流动与空间工资的关联性,并分析了该模型的长期均衡,构建了新空间工资方程。在此基础上,运用Excel软件进行数值模拟,从而印证了该模型可靠性。     

人民币汇率重估:实证分析与政策含义

本文以一般均衡理论为基础，构建了一个向量误差修正模型，对人民币均衡汇率和人民币面临的升值压力进行了实证研究。根据协整与误差修正模型，自2000年以来，人民币名义有效汇率处于被低估状态（平均低估幅度为17％）。根据冲击响应分析，人民币汇率升值对中国经济有微弱的通胀效应，对美国经济有微弱的通缩效应。考虑到人民币汇率一次性调整产生的即时效应和滞后积累效应，本文认为，中国经济可以承受的年度汇率调整为7％，这样的升值幅度不至于造成人民币的高估而产生通货紧缩和贸易赤字。为了让中国的企业和居民有更多的时间适应新的汇率机制，渐进式汇率改革策略应该坚持。     

An Income Tax Increase to Fund Higher Education: A CGE Analysis for Chile

An increase in income taxes to fund education was one of the demands made by the social movements that emerged in Chile in 2011. Currently, the Chilean Congress is enacting a tax reform to raise money for higher education. This study aims to show the dynamic effects on the general equilibrium of the Chilean economy under two alternative approaches: a subsidy to lower the price of higher education (public and private), and greater spending on public higher education to reduce household payments for education. The social accounting matrix (SAM) used to calibrate the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model has 38 economic sectors, including the production structure of private education and public education. The study mainly concludes that a subsidy policy has significant advantages over increasing higher public education spending, regarding its effects on variables such as GDP, investment, and household incomes, while both policies have a similar effect on poverty and income distribution.     

Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Ecuador: A CGE Macro-Microsimulation Analysis

Cross-country analysis of the aggregate growth-poverty link is likely to miss important country-specific detail and possible offsetting forces in the underlying labour market adjustment process. This paper combines a CGE model analysis with a microsimulations approach to analyse the effects of trade liberalization on poverty and income distribution in Ecuador. The CGE model enables us to disentangle the general equilibrium effects of various trade policy scenarios on sector output, employment, factor incomes and household consumption. However, as is typical of CGE models, this analysis only provides distribution results for fairly aggregated groups of workers and a reduced number of representative households. The microsimulations approach adds the full distribution to the analysis and allows simulation of the effects of trade reform on the job status and remuneration of individual workers and thereby on household income distribution and poverty. The macro- microsimulation results indicate that the trade opening in Ecuador induced mild aggregate welfare gains, but rising income inequality due to rising wage differentials between skilled and unskilled workers implies virtually no poverty-reducing effect from trade liberalization.     

MULTIPLE LABOR GROUPS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON SMALL CITY AND TOWN SAMS AND CGE MODELS

This paper extends Schwarm and Cutler (2003) by incorporating three labor groups while using their methods to source data and provide an organizational framework that allows effective and straightforward creation of social accounting matrices (SAMs) and regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. While CGE models typically describe relatively large geographical areas and are therefore not able to capture the uniqueness of individual cities or towns within the region, our model allows simulations of small cities and towns that highlight regional similarities or differences. The differing effects of both an increase in manufacturing and a change in the sales tax are examined to demonstrate the insights and regional characteristics that such methods allow a researcher to obtain.     

住房价格、社会保障支出和居民消费——基于面板门槛模型的实证分析

党的十九大报告提出了改善住房制度、加强社会保障和完善消费体制等一系列要求，这些热点问题之间不是孤立的，而是存在着内在的联系。为此，基于不确定性视角，将社会保障支出水平纳入分析框架研究发现，住房价格上涨通过社会保障支出对居民消费产生正向影响，与原有住房价格通过收入视角对居民消费产生的效应相叠加，使住房价格对居民消费产生的总效应呈现非线性关系。在此基础上，以地方政府社会保障支出水平作为门槛变量，建立关于房价和居民消费率关系的面板门槛模型，以我国2007—2015年省际面板数据为样本进行实证分析，结果表明：社会保障水平的变化使得住房价格对于居民消费率的影响存在显著的单门槛效应。当社会保障支出水平小于其门槛值时，住房价格上涨对居民消费率有较强的抑制效应，两者之间呈现显著的负相关关系；当社会保障水平超过门槛值后，住房价格上涨对居民消费率的抑制效应明显减弱。     

EVALUATING SUPPLY-SIDE AND DEMAND-SIDE SHOCKS FOR FISHERIES: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM (CGE) MODEL FOR ALASKA

This study used computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to investigate the economic effects of three exogenous shocks to Alaska fisheries: (1) reduction in pollock allowable catch (TAC); (2) increase in fuel price; and (3) reduction in demand for seafood. Two different model versions, ‘Keynesian’ and ‘neoclassical’, were used to estimate impacts on endogenous output, employment, value added, and household income. By using a CGE model, this study overcomes the limitations of fixed-price models (such as input–output models) including (1) inability to calculate welfare effects due to fixed prices; and (2) difficulty of addressing supply-side shocks. There are currently few examples of CGE studies addressing fisheries issues appearing in the literature. Among those, this study is unique in that it uses a relatively disaggregated sector scheme and examines both supply-side and demand-side shocks.     

A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Australian Information Economy

The more robust computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling has been applied to examine the macro-economic implications of promoting the nascent Australian information economy. The Australian information economy has been trichotomized into marketed or primary information, secondary or non-marketed information and non-information economic sectors using a special algorithm. The trichotomized data base has been used in a CGE framework to examine the macro-economic policy implications of information sector development. In particular, the nurturing, under protection, of the primary information sector as a strategic trade sector provided unanticipated lack-lustre results. Overall, it is the contention of this paper that the CGE analysis of the Australian information economy provides richer policy insights than straightforward input–output analytics.     

Myopia and pensions in general equilibrium

The US social security tax rate has doubled in the last half century. Does the degree of myopic behavior that we observe in the US justify the size of the social security program? To study this question we build a computable general equilibrium model that is composed of life-cycle permanent-income consumers who save optimally and “hand-to-mouth” consumers who just consume their disposable income. Our model is a continuous-time, general equilibrium extension of the model by Cremer et al. (Int Tax Public Financ 15(5):547–562, 2008), though we abstract from the redistributive function of social security to focus on myopia. Retirement is a choice variable in our model and the social security program is designed to mimic the US program in which the annuity value of benefits increases with the retirement age. Also, we allow for delayed claiming beyond the date of retirement. The model matches a variety of important data targets relating to saving and retirement. We find that small reductions in the social security tax rate provide significant welfare gains to both groups of consumers.     

COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS FOR DEVELOPMENT POLICY ANALYSIS IN LDCs

Abstract. The use of CGE models has gained much popularity among policy analysts in LDCs and there is a fast growing body of literature on this area of economics. In this survey, the advantages of general equilibrium approach over partial equilibrium approach in analysing a wide range of policy issues are highlighted. The evolution of CGE modelling is discussed and more than 60 CGE applications related to different policy issues in LDCs are surveyed. This comprehensive survey shows that the CGE models have become quite popular analytical tools among policy analysts in LDCs over the last decade or so. The debate in the economic profession regarding the value and appropriateness of using CGE models for policy analysis is examined in the final section of this paper. Some of the criticisms levelled at CGE models are discussed and it is argued that despite this criticism such models are capable of providing insight into important policy problems.