Monetary policy,corporate profit and house prices

By using portfolio theory, we explain the highly observed correlation between the seemingly unrelated corporate profit and house prices in the United States. We test the predictions of the underlying model using a vector autoregression representation and find the data to be supportive of the theory. Monetary impulses explain high correlation as both corporate profit and house prices exhibit similar dynamics in response to a monetary impulse. Robustness checks are presented by using the federal funds rate instead of the monetary base as a measure of the stance of monetary policy and by using other model variations. In all cases, the results are robust.     

The private net present value and private internal rate of return to becoming a nurse in Great Britain

The private net present value and private internal rate of return to becoming a nurse in Great Britain is estimated. The calculations are made using the standard equations inputted with data from the New Earnings Survey and the British Household Panel Survey. Basic age-earnings profiles are adjusted for mortality, unemployment, other causes of economic inactivity, and discontinuation from training. The conclusions are that: (1) there is a high private internal rate of return to becoming a nurse in Great Britain relative to other occupations; (2) using the internal rate of return criterion is inappropriate when there exists a crossover marginal time preference rate, which is shown to be the case here; and, (3) using the net present value criterion there are net financial benefits to becoming a nurse in Great Britain for individuals with a marginal time preference rate of 8-13% or more.     

On selecting a measure of labour activity: evidence from registered nurses, 1981 and 1989

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the effects of the selection of measures of labour activity on the conclusions that are derived from the analysis of individual labour supply. The results of the analysis using three commonly specified single measures (Annual Hours Worked, Hours Worked per Week, and Weeks Worked per Year) as the dependent variable in TOBIT equations are compared with those obtained using a PROBIT-2SLS in which the individual labour supply is measured by Hours Worked per Week and Weeks Worked per Year. The RHS variables are those that are used in earlier individual labour supply studies and are the same in all of the models analysed. Among the findings are (1) wage rate effects that are quite strong in single equation models and disappear when a multi-equation approach is used, (2) the effects of children on labour supply is more complex than in indicated in single equation results and (3) duration dependence is much stronger than indicated results using a single measure of individual labour supply. These results suggest that using a single measure of labour supply will lead to inappropriate conclusions as to the effects of such variables as wage rates, number and ages of children, spouse's employment state, and income from other sources on individual labour supply.     

Measurement of redistributive effect of tax rates from a longitudinal perspective: an application of the fixed taxable income approach

The primary objective of this article is to explore how the redistributive effects of tax rate change when using the fixed taxable income approach – where tax rates for each year in a period are applied to taxable income for a base year to calculate rate effects – instead of using an existing procedure to compute the rate effects. Standard rate effects are found to differ considerably from those calculated using the fixed taxable income approach in terms of both level and longitudinal trend.     

Myths about memes

Memes are conceived of as the cultural equivalents to genes. As cultural change can be modelled using theories and concepts from population genetics, a “meme’s eye view” of cultural change is arguably valid. However, such views are frequently dismissed. Whatever the merits or demerits of memetics are as a science, no prominent objections to the meme concept appear well-grounded by either evidence or logic. This paper suggests that such criticisms arise from a few key misunderstandings and fallacies concerning memes and questionable assumptions about evolution, culture and psychology on which these misunderstandings are based. These misunderstandings are described in this paper using examples of criticisms which have been made about the meme concept. These are then scrutinized using basic principles of evolutionary biology, economics, and psychology. It is hoped that future attempts to apply the meme concept are encouraged by addressing these issues here.     

Using Elasticities to Derive Optimal Income Tax Rates

This paper derives optimal income tax formulas using compensated and uncompensated elasticities of earnings with respect to tax rates. A simple formula for the high income optimal tax rate is obtained as a function of these elasticities and the thickness of the top tail of the income distribution. In the general non-linear income tax problem, this method using elasticities shows precisely how the different economic effects come into play and which are the key relevant parameters in the optimal income tax formulas of Mirrlees. The optimal non-linear tax rate formulas are expressed in terms of elasticities and the shape of the income distribution. These formulas are implemented numerically using empirical earning distributions and a range of realistic elasticity parameters.     

Probability forecast of downturn in U.S. economy using classical statistical decision theory

This paper presents a methodology for producing a probability forecast of a turning point in U.S. economy using Composite Leading Indicators. This methodology is based on classical statistical decision theory and uses information-theoretic measurement to produce a probability. The methodology is flexible using as many historical data points as desired. This methodology is applied to producing probability forecasts of a downturn in U.S. economy in the 1970–1990 period. Four probability forecasts are produced using different amounts of information. The performance of these forecasts is evaluated using the actual downturn points and the scores measuring accuracy, calibration, and resolution. An indirect comparison of these forecasts with Diebold and Rudebusch's sequential probability recursion is also presented. It is shown that the performances of our best two models are statistically different from the performance of the three-consecutive-month decline model and are the same as the one for the best probit model. The probit model, however, is more conservative in its predictions than our two models.     

Three tests for the existence of cycles in time series

Three tests for the presence of cycles in univariate time series are proposed. The asymptotic distribution of the tests is derived using the properties of the integrated periodogram and the small sample properties are examined using a Monte Carlo experiment. The tests are applied to U.S. data to detect the existence of significant seasonal and of other types of periodic fluctuations.     

The Atkinson Inequality Measure and its Sampling Properties: Bayesian and Classical Approaches

This paper examines several Bayesian methods of obtaining posterior probability density functions of the Atkinson inequality measure and its associated social welfare function, in the context of grouped income distribution data. The methods are compared with asymptotic standard errors. The role of the number of income classes is investigated using a simulated distribution. If only a small number of groups is available in published data, there is a clear gain from generating the posterior probability density function when using an explicit income distribution assumption. Even with a small number of groups, the Bayesian approach gives results that are close to the sample values obtained using the corresponding individual observations.     

Does the monetary policy committee still care about inflation? Some evidence from a small macroeconomic model

This article derives an optimal Taylor rule for the UK economy using a simple estimated model based on data prior to the financial crisis of 2008. Optimal policy rules are calculated using simulation of the model over a long time period coupled with a search for optimal Taylor rule parameters using the Newton-Raphson loss minimization algorithm. The weights in the pre-crisis loss function are then inferred from the Taylor rule parameters estimated from the period corresponding to Bank of England independence, i.e. 1997–2008. These estimates are consistent with a low weight on inflation relative to output stabilization even before the crisis. The model is therefore consistent with the hypothesis that there has been no change in Bank of England preferences and that the Bank has responded to the crisis in a way which would have been predicted on the basis of its pre-crisis behaviour.     

Methodical Madness: Technical Analysis and the Irrationality of Exchange-rate Forecasts

Substantial empirical research documents that exchange-rate forecasts are not formed rationally. This paper identifies a common technical trading signal, the head-and-shoulders pattern, as a potential source of departures from rationality in exchange-rate forecasts. Forecasts based on this pattern are evaluated for daily dollar exchange rates over 1973 to 1994, using two criteria for rationality: profitability and efficiency. Resulting profits, replicable in real-time, are tested for statistical significance using a bootstrap technique. We find that the rule is profitable, but not efficient, since it is dominated by simpler trading rules.     

中国地区工业知识生产效率测算

文章运用1996-2003年我国29个省(自治区,直辖市)的大中型工业企业面板数据,以新产品开发项目数衡量创新产出,以研发资本存量和研发人员表示创新投入,采用数据包络分析和随机前沿分析方法,对我国地区工业的知识生产效率进行了测算和分析。分析结果表明,用随机前沿法测算的知识生产效率较大而且较为稳定;各地区工业的知识生产效率存在较大差异,具有明显的不均衡发展特征;总体而言,我国地区工业的知识生产效率偏低,存在较大的改进潜力。     

Multilateral Comparisons of Productivity, Terms-of-Trade and Factor Accumulation

This paper proposes a new approach for multilateral comparisons using index numbers. The new approach combines two recently-proposed innovative techniques to examine differences among economies at various levels. The Minimum Spanning Tree algorithm, based on the idea of minimizing substitution bias of bilateral comparisons, provides a possible ordering for panel data. Making use of the suggested ordering, bilateral Törnqvist price and quantity indexes are calculated and multilateral indexes are obtained by chaining. An index-number based approach is then used to decompose the differences in GDP at the bilateral level. Different sources that contribute to the differences in GDP are considered: productivity differences, terms of trade differences, factor endowments differences and domestic output price differences. The newly formed indexes are base-invariant which provides strong support for using the technique for multilateral comparisons. An illustration of the technique using data from China and four OECD countries is included.     

Forecasting technology costs via the experience curve — Myth or magic?

To further understand the effectiveness of experience curves to forecast technology costs, a statistical analysis using historical data is carried out. Three hypotheses are tested using available datasets that together shed light on the historical ability of experience curves to forecast technology costs. The results indicate that the Single Factor Experience Curve is a useful forecasting model when errors are viewed in their log format. Practitioners should note that due to the convexity of the log curve a mean overestimation of potential cost reductions can arise as values are converted into monetary units. Time is also tested as an explanatory variable, however forecasts made with endogenous learning based on cumulative capacity as used in traditional experience curves are shown to be vastly superior. Furthermore the effectiveness of increasing weights for more recent data is tested using Weighted Least Squares with exponentially increasing weights. This results in forecasts that are less biased, though have increased spread when compared to Ordinary Least Squares.     

Wages,work, and unemployment

This paper provides new evidence on unemployment durations for individuals in Great Britain using a three state Markov framework in a competing risk setting and a nationally representative data set. The analysis is based on the premise that an individual's movements between labour market states can be represented by a Markov process. The modelling procedure combines the dynamic properties of the search approach to unemployment while using the labour supply decision at each moment in time in response to the expected wage to include participation decisions. Using this framework, we are able to determine the effect of individual characteristics, including the expected wage, on labour market behaviour. The model is estimated separately for men and women, and for young and mature workers, to investigate whether labour market behaviour differs for these groups. The validity of the Markov assumptions are tested using different model specifications, and changes in the model over calendar time are also presented.     

如何运用“软资源”─—企业无形资产策略谈

由商标品牌、技术专利、商业秘密、商誉、专营特许权等组成的企业无形资产，可视作企业运行的“软资源”。无形资严“软资源”在企业经营中正发挥着愈来愈重要的作用。无形资产的开发策略有：营造规范、塑造形象、购实专利等。无形资产的运用策略有：用足牌子、扩大市场、输出管理等。无形资产的维护策略有：全员维护、法律维护、及时维护等。     

The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach

This paper assesses the impact of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa using a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR), estimated using a large data set comprising of 246 quarterly series over the period 1980:01 to 2006:04. The results based on the impulse response functions indicate that, in general, house price inflation responds negatively to monetary policy shock, but the responses are heterogeneous across the middle-, luxury- and affordable-segments of the housing market. The luxury-, large-middle- and medium-middle-segments are found to respond much more than the small-middle- and the affordable-segments of the housing market. More importantly, we find no evidence of the home price puzzle, observed previously by other studies that analyzed house prices using small-scale models. We put this down to the benefit gained from using a large information set.     

A Spatial Stochastic Frontier Model with Spillovers: Evidence for Italian Regions

Efficiency measurement using stochastic frontier models is well established in applied econometrics. However, no published work seems to be available on efficiency analysis using spatial data dealing with possible spatial dependence between regions. This article considers a stochastic frontier model with decomposition of inefficiency into an idiosyncratic and a spatial, spillover component. Exact posterior distributions of parameters are derived, and computational schemes based on Gibbs sampling with data augmentation are proposed to conduct simulation‐based inference and efficiency measurement. The new method is illustrated using production data for Italian regions (1970–1993). Clearly, further theoretical and empirical research on the subject would be of great interest.     

Modelling the effects of protection in a dynamic framework

The effects of alternative trade strategies on development performance are analyzed using a small, dynamic, computable general equilibrium model. The static allocation costs of protection are quantitatively weighed against the dynamic benefits resulting from heterogenous capital goods and imperfect foresight. An attempt at quantifying the effects of protection on employment and savings behavior is made by using submodels specifying distortions in labor-markets and alternative savings functions.     

The Performance Of A Consumption Augmented Asset Index In Ranking Households And Identifying The Poor

Asset ownership indices are widely used as inexpensive proxies for consumption. We show that these indices can be augmented using dichotomous indicators for consumption, which are equally easy to obtain. Using multiple rounds of Living Standards Measurements Study surveys from Malawi, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Ghana, we construct indices using different item subcategories and perform a meta‐analysis comparing the indices to per capita consumption. The results show that the standard asset indices, derived from durable ownership and housing characteristic indicators, perform well in urban settings. Yet, in rural samples and when identifying the extreme poor, household rankings and poverty classification accuracy can be meaningfully improved by adding indicators of food and semi‐durable consumption. We find small improvement from using national weights in urban samples but no improvement from using alternative construction methods. With most of Africa’s poor concentrated in rural areas, these are important insights.