The demand for money in Austria

In this paper, the demand for real money M1, M2, and M3 is estimated for Austria over the time period 1965–96. The modelling takes place within the framework of a small vector autoregression. To estimate the demand for money, two-equation error-correction models are constructed, which contain the short-run dynamics and the long-run economic equilibrium. It is found that a stable money demand exists for all monetary aggregates. The long-run equilibrium of M1, after accounting for a structural break in 1979, can be characterised as a classical type of money demand, with no interest rate effects and an elasticity of one for real GDP. In the case of M2 and M3, we find a unit coefficient on income and a significantly negative influence of a long-term interest rate. The statistical properties of the estimated short-run money demand equations – considering in-sample and out-of-sample tests – are generally very good. First version received: October 1996/Final version received: April 2000     

Estimating money demand functions for South Asian countries

In this paper, we estimate a money demand function for a panel of five South Asian countries. We find that the money demand and its determinants, namely real income, real exchange rate and short-term domestic and foreign interest rates are cointegrated both for individual countries as well as for the panel, and panel long-run elasticities provide robust evidence of statistically significant relationships between money demand and its determinants. Our test for panel Granger causality suggests short-run causality running from all variables, except foreign interest rate, to money demand, and we find evidence that except for Nepal money demand functions are stable.      

On the short-run and long-run demand for money

This paper makes precise the relationships between short-run and long-run demand for money, using methods commonly employed in growth models. It estimates these demand functions with quarterly French data and tests the validity in France of the modern version of the quantity theory of money. The effects of inflation on the demand for money are studied both in the short run and the long run. The speed of adjustment of money balances towards their long-run level is measured.     

Monetary dynamics: a market approach

The behaviour of the short-run responses implied by the identification of a long-run money demand relationship is examined. These responses have recently been interpreted as representing the policy stance of the monetary authority. However, as movements in the monetary aggregate reflect both demand and supply adjustments, estimating the short-run dynamics solely within the money demand relationship may produce biased results. In order to address this issue, the paper explicitly acknowledges the importance of the supply of money function by including the function alongside the demand for money function. While the interaction of the two equations continues to produce the long-run quantity theory result, the additional detail provides more accurate estimates of the individual short-run adjustments within the two equations.     

A long-run,short-run,and politico-economic analysis of the welfare costs of inflation

The long-run, short-run, and politico-economic welfare implications of inflation are assessed in a Bewley model of money demand. All agents produce and consume every period, and hold money to self-insure against idiosyncratic risk. The model is calibrated so the equilibrium monetary distribution shares features with US data. The long-run welfare costs of inflation are shown to be large because inflation reduces the ability of money to mitigate risk. However, the beneficial redistributive effect of inflation is magnified along the short-run transition and reduces the overall costs. These short-run benefits result in a majority-rule inflation rate above the Friedman Rule.     

Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the demand for money in Africa

In order to account for currency substitution, the exchange rate is included in the demand for money. More recent studies have demonstrated that exchange rate changes could have asymmetric effects on the demand for money or domestic currency. In this paper, we consider the experiences of 18 African countries and show that in most countries, indeed exchange rate changes have short-run asymmetric effects on the demand for money. However, short-run effects translate to long-run asymmetric effects only in a limited number of African countries.     

Evidence on nonlinear error correction in money demand: the case of Taiwan

This paper proposes a nonlinear error-correction model based upon smooth transition regression methodology. The model is specified such that the short-run adjustment toward long-run equilibrium is nonlinear and that the error correction is a smooth function of long-run deviation. Empirical results obtained from estimating M2 money demand in Taiwan support the hypothesis of a nonlinear error-correction process and provide better interpretation of change in the demand for money.     

中国经济转型与货币需求

本文采用"从一般到特殊"的动态建模方法对中国经济转型过程中的货币需求函数进行了再估计,通过引入市场化进程相对指数作为衡量经济转型的制度变量考察货币需求、经济增长、通货膨胀、利率和经济转型之间的相互关系。结果发现,尽管1978—2007年间30年的改革开放使得中国的经济体制和金融体系发生了较大的转型,但通过引入适当的制度变量,仍然可以得到稳定的货币需求函数。本文建立的货币需求动态模型证实了经济体制的市场化转型无论长短期都是拉动货币需求增加的因素,通货膨胀是解释货币量的有效外生解释变量,短期内利率变量对实际货币需求影响不显著,但其确实显著地进入了长期货币需求关系。     

Revisiting the US money demand function: an application of the Lagrange multiplier structural break unit root test and the bounds test for a long-run relationship

In this article, we examine the issue of a levels relationship and stability of the US money demand function over the period 1959:01 to 2004:02. We use the Lagrange multiplier structural break unit root test and the bounds testing approach to a long-run relationship in levels of the variables, namely real money demand, nominal interest rate and real income. We find greater evidence for a long-run relationship in levels and stability of the US money demand function when we use M2 as a proxy for money demand. However, we find little evidence for a long-run relationship between M1 and M2 with their determinants for the recent period, spanning the last decade or so.     

MONETARY TARGETING IN WEST GERMANY,HOLLAND, AND SWITZERLAND

Links between fluctuations in domestic money supplies and subsequent fluctuations in rates of real output have been less visible in Western Europe than in the United States. This paper discusses some of the causes and investigates the stability of the demand for money in West Germany, the Netherlands and Switzerland. In all three countries, temporary changes in short-term interest rates temporarily affect the demand for money. These temporary changes in the demand for money are reflected in temporary blips in the monetary statistics, as agents substitute among various monetary assets. The hypothesis that aggregate demand responds only to longer-lasting changes in interest rates is tested by a two-step procedure. First, the official data on European money supplies are corrected for temporary disturbances caused by temporary changes in domestic interest rates. Second, changes in real activity are regressed on a measure of monetary stimulus, which takes into account the correction for temporary disturbances. This two-step procedure avoids some of the bias present in ordinary estimates of the demand-for-money function. The results show that the links between changes in money and subsequent changes in output are somewhat more tenuous in West Germany, the Netherlands, and Switzerland than in the U.S. but significant effects do exist. These effects are more easily documented when corrected time series for the European money supplies are used.     

Economic policy uncertainty and demand for money in Australia

The demand for money has received a great deal of attention in the empirical literature. This literature, however, has emphasized factors such as interest rate, income, inflation rate and exchange rate as the primary determinants of money demand. Although an emerging strand of literature examines uncertainty as a potential determinant of money demand, findings have been mixed. Using a news-based Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index and Australian quarterly data from 1998 to 2017, we study the impact of policy uncertainty on demand for money. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) results show that the economic policy uncertainty measure has a negative short-run effect on the demand for money, suggesting the wider public hedge against future expected inflation, and positive long-run effect, whereby the broader public hold more cash to stay liquid during times of economic uncertainty. Also, introducing nonlinearity into the money demand equation, we find an asymmetric effect, more in favour of currency appreciations, supporting the expectations effect of further appreciations in exchange rate movements.     

MULTIVARIATE COINTEGRATION APPROACH TO THE DETERMINATION OF RESERVES AND BANK CREDIT: A CASE STUDY OF TURKEY*

The paper estimates both long-run reserves and long-run money demand equations using the multivariate cointegration approach. An economic model is constructed, based on the monetary approach to balance of payments in which the monetary authorities can control money supply through changes in bank credit. The vector auto-regressive methodology is used to derive latent equilibrium relationships, and the short-run error correction equations are estimated for both nominal money stock and reserves. A response function for the short-run changes in bank credit is developed. Given the institutional system and slow adjustments, a response function of changes in bank credit to lagged changes in reserves performs well for the period 1960–88.     

Stock prices and long-run demand for money: evidence from Malaysia

This paper investigates the money demand function for Malaysia in the 1971-1996 period using the multivariate cointegration and error correction model methodology. The results suggest that a stable long-run relationship exist between real M2, the interest rate differential, income and stock prices. Stock prices have a significant negative substitute effect on long-run as well as short-run broad-money demand (M2) and its omission can lead to serious misspecification in the money demand function. The analysis from the vector error correction model (VECM) and the Toda & Yamamoto (1995) causality tests find that money is endogenous and that there is at least a unidirectional relationship between stock prices and real M2. Stock prices Granger cause real M2 indirectly through income between interest rates and stock prices and stock prices and money stock. This paper comes to the conclusion that due to the endogeneity of money, M2 cannot be completely controlled by Malaysia's central bank. Therefore, in formulating future monetary policy, the response of money demand to stock prices should be considered.     

The transactions demand for money in the presence of currency substitution: evidence from Vietnam

Currency substitution – the use of foreign money to finance transactions between domestic residents – is widespread in low income and transition economies. Traditionally, however, empirical models of the demand for money tend to concentrate on the portfolio motive for holding foreign currency, while maintaining the assumption that the income elasticity of demand for domestic money is invariant to the degree of currency substitution. A simple re-specification of the demand for money is offered which more accurately reflects the process of currency substitution by allowing for a variable income elasticity of demand for domestic money. This specification is estimated for Vietnam in the 1990s. Using a standard cointegration framework evidence is found for currency substitution only in the long-run but well-defined wealth effects operating in the short-run.     

Long-run investment under uncertain demand

In the literature investigating the impact of uncertainty on short-run and long-run investment, most authors have used a log linear profit function. This functional form has been generally considered a reasonable approximation for a more general one and has the advantage of providing closed form solutions for both short-run investment rule and long-run rate of capital accumulation. In this paper, we consider the profit function for the case of a monopolistic firm facing a linear demand function with additive shocks. Under this assumption, analytical solutions, for both short-run investment rule and long-run rate of capital accumulation, are not available. We then 1) propose an analytical approximation of the short-run investment rule and 2) show how such approximation can be used in order to derive the corresponding i) steady-state distribution of the optimal stock of capital and ii) the long-run average rate of capital accumulation. Finally, we compare the long-run rates of capital accumulation calculated under both profit function specifications. We find that, within a plausible range of parameter values, the two rates are significantly different. Hence, we conclude that the choice of a log linear functional form has a non-trivial impact on the magnitude of the long run rate of capital accumulation.     

What can wavelets unveil about the vulnerabilities of monetary integration? A tale of Eurozone stock markets

The study has two main objectives: (i) to investigate whether there is pure contagion or fundamental-based contagion/interdependence among the Eurozone equity markets (Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Netherlands), attributable to the shocks stemming from nine major crises around the world (ii) to investigate the evolution of market integration, whether mainly short-run or long-run. Wavelet decompositions, in both its discrete and continuous forms, are employed to unveil the multi-horizon nature of co-movements, volatility and lead–lag relationships. This is to unveil the path of linkages and the behavior underlying the transmission mechanism of financial shocks across major Eurozone stock markets. Evidence also supports the presence of common shocks whereby equity markets in Eurozone are significantly affected by episodic crisis events globally. Prior to the recent subprime crisis, contagion effects have generated short-term shocks that may potentially involve, among other factors, excessive channels. In stark contrast, the most recent US subprime crisis and EMU sovereign debt crisis reveal the evidence of fundamental-based contagion. We also find the increasing short-run and long-run stock market integration, driven by several stages of the establishment of EMU. Policy implications for regulators and investors are discussed in the context of continued monetary integration.     

The role of capital flows in the adjustment of money demand: The case of Finland

The paper models the dual role of money balances as a short-run buffer stock and an asset with a well-specified long-run demand function. The analysis is carried out in an open economy framework. Consequently, there will be an offset to monetary policy in the form of induced capital movements, but in our model, it will be distributed over time even under perfect substitutability of financial claims. Estimates for the parameters of the demand for money function are obtained from a capital flow equation using both unrestricted (OLS) and restricted (nonlinear) estimation methods. The results provide strong evidence in favour of the shock-absorption theory for the adjustment of money demand under money supply changes.     

Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the demand for money in Turkey?

As a result of the research conducted by Nobel Laureate Robert Mundell (1963), most studies estimating the demand for money today do include the exchange rate in their specification to account for currency substitution. Previous studies that did this for the Turkish demand for money assumed that exchange rate changes do have symmetric effects on the demand for money in Turkey. In this article, we question this assumption. By using the nonlinear ARDL approach, we show that indeed exchange rate changes do have short-run and long-run asymmetric effects on the M1 demand for money. Introducing nonlinearity also yields a stable money demand.     

Long-Run Elasticities of the Demand for Money in Korea:Evidence from Cointegration Analysis

Most recent studies have employed the cointegration technique to investigate the long-run stability of the demand for money. This study considers the case of Korea. It is shown that in the long-run while Ml monetary aggregate is cointegrated with income, interest rate, and the exchange rate, M2 is not. However, results from error correction models reveal that both Ml and M2 have short-run relationship with their determinants. [E41]     

On dynamic stability in monetary models which incorporate short- and long-run expectations of inflation in the demand for the money function

The demand for money function should depend on the long-run rate of inflation. A model of macroeconomic fluctuations based on short-run unanticipated inflation is used, together with adaptive expectations to develop conditions for price stability. It is shown that Cagan's conditions are neither necessary nor efficient.