Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the demand for money in Africa

In order to account for currency substitution, the exchange rate is included in the demand for money. More recent studies have demonstrated that exchange rate changes could have asymmetric effects on the demand for money or domestic currency. In this paper, we consider the experiences of 18 African countries and show that in most countries, indeed exchange rate changes have short-run asymmetric effects on the demand for money. However, short-run effects translate to long-run asymmetric effects only in a limited number of African countries.     

S‐curve Dynamics of Trade in Africa*

Abstract: Two concepts summarize the short‐run relationship between the trade balance and the terms of trade or the real exchange rate, the old concept known as the J‐curve and a new concept that comes under the heading of the S‐curve. The S‐curve introduced in 1994 basically claims that while the cross‐correlation between past value of the trade balance and current value of the exchange rate is negative, the correlation is positive between the future value of trade balance and the current value of the exchange rate. In this paper we investigated the experiences of 20 African nations and found support for the S‐curve in eight of them.     

Is there J-Curve effect in Africa?

The J-Curve is a term used to describe the post-devaluation behavior of the trade balance, i.e., initial deterioration followed by an improvement. Previous research has tested the phenomenon for many developed and developing countries. However, African nations have not received any attention on this regard. In this paper, we test the hypothesis for nine African countries of Burundi, Egypt, Kenya, Mauritius, Morocco, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, South Africa, and Tanzania for which quarterly trade data were available. After using the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling, we were unable to find any support for the J-Curve.     

Non-linear quantile unit root test and PPP: more evidence from Africa

It is now a common practice to establish stationarity of the real exchange rate as a sign of purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. In this article, we consider the real effective exchange rates of 29 African countries. When we apply conventional linear unit root tests, we find support for the PPP in eight countries. However, when we shift to the newly introduced non-linear quantile unit root test, support for the PPP increases to 15 countries.     

Does food aid have disincentive effects on local production? A general equilibrium perspective on food aid in Ethiopia

This paper examined impacts of food aid on domestic food production employing a computable general equilibrium modelling technique and using data from Ethiopia. The simulation experiments have shown that food aid has unambiguous disincentive effects on domestic food production. The removal of food aid caused a modest increase in food prices but this stimulated food production. Employment and income generation effects of the latter outweighed the adverse effect of the former. Consequently, the removal of food aid led to improvements in aggregate household welfare. Contrary to some concerns in the food aid literature that any reduction in food aid would hurt the poor, the simulation experiments suggested that actually poor rural households and urban wage earners are the ones who benefit most in absence of food aid but entrepreneurs are more likely to encounter a marginal welfare decline. We have distinguished between in-kind food aid and cash equivalent transfers in order to isolate the disincentives that in-kind transfers would make to domestic production from those that are related to household purchasing power problem. The expansionary effect of removing food aid becomes significantly larger when it is accompanied by cash equivalent payments because the latter would provide demand side stimulus to agriculture while the removal of in-kind transfers would stimulate supply side, with the supply and demand side effects reinforcing each other. In our modelling framework, the only adverse effect would be a modest deterioration in the external current account, because the expansionary effects of food aid would cause imports to rise but exports to fall.     

The South Africa-U.S. Trade and the Real Exchange Rate: Asymmetric Evidence from 25 Industries

Previous studies that assessed the effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance of South Africa assumed that the effects are symmetric. In this paper we violate that assumption and assess the asymmetric effects of the real rand-dollar rate on the trade balance of 25 2-digit industries that trade between South Africa and the U.S. We find short-run asymmetric effects in a total of 19 industries but short-run cumulative or impact asymmetric effects only on five industries. Short-run asymmetric effects lasted into long-run asymmetric effects on 14 industries. Further analysis revealed industries that will benefit from rand depreciation and those that will be hurt from rand appreciation.     

TRADE POLICY AND CITY PRIMACY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

This paper examines the relationship between trade policy and city primacy in developing countries. A general equilibrium model was constructed and center‐periphery relations are analyzed, accounting for tensions between agglomerative and distributive forces. By applying the theoretical model through numerical simulations, we analyzed how trade policy affects the interactions between these forces. We distinguished between import tariffs and export trade barriers. The results suggested that trade liberalization can reduce the dominance of mega‐cities in developing countries, but only when improvements are made to internal and external factors inhibiting their export trade. These include improving domestic transport infrastructure and reducing barriers to exports from developing countries by developed nations.     

浅谈税务稽查取证工作

在税务稽查中取得的各种证据是做出税务行政处理决定的最直接的依据。目前,我国在税务稽查取证的实践中存在取证不够确凿、充分;手段和方式相对单一;取证权限不足、取证工作难度大;取证后的证据保管不力等问题。针对这些问题,本文提出了相关的建议。