Family planning in a life-cycle model with income risk

Several US states have recently restricted the access to abortions. We study fertility intentions and how family planning and abortions are used as mechanisms to control fertility among couples facing income risk. We formulate and estimate a life-cycle consumption-saving model with uninsurable income risk and imperfect contraceptive control that matches fertility behavior in the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) well. We use the estimated model to investigate how family planning and abortions are used to control fertility in our model. Our simulations suggest that income risk affects family planning and that abortion is used to control fertility due to the presence of income risk. This indicates that the availability of abortions might play a role as an insurance mechanism.     

An Economic Analysis of Teenage Fertility

Abstract . The relationship between the probability of a teenage birth and various independent variables representing fecundity, attitudes, resources, and the economic opportunities for a sample of teenage females drawn from the 1980 census is examined. A theoretical framework, based on Becker's model, is employed to describe the birth-decision process and tested using a logit technique. The findings suggest that receipt of public assistance income and perceived economic opportunities are more important in explaining fertility probabilities among older (18–19 years old) teenagers. Among younger teens, accessibility to family planning and abortion services, and religious attitudes toward family planning ate more important predictors of fertility.     

当前我国农民工收入现状及提升路径

提高低收入群体的收入水平是近年来我国解决收入分配领域问题的思路之一。农民工作为我国改革开放和工业化、城镇化进程中涌现出的一支新型劳动大军,已成为我国促进经济社会发展的重要力量,对他们的收入状况进行研究意义重大。近年来,我国农民工收入得到一定幅度增长,但仍存在总体水平偏低、增长幅度与贡献不符合、稳定性不高、保障水平低下等问题,需从推进城市化进程、提高农民工自身素质、加强政府干预力度、完善社会保障制度、提高法律执行力、完善行业组织等方面作出努力。     

IFRS,financial development and income inequality: An empirical study using mediation analysis

Income inequality continues to be an issue of concern. Early work on economic development suggested that, as a country’s economy grows, incomes would rise and reduce any income disparities. However, there is growing evidence that as countries develop, income inequality actually worsens. Some studies argue that this is the result of financial development and the growth of the financial sector. Although there is a good deal of empirical research on the relationship between financial development and income inequality, there is no prior work that examines how accounting standards, in particular International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), might influence this relationship. This study examines the relationship of IFRS and financial development with income inequality using mediation analysis over the period from 1998 to 2018. The results indicate that the impact of IFRS on income inequality is mediated by financial development. Moreover, there is a direct relationship between IFRS and inequality.     

Time costs,aspirations and the effect of economic growth on German fertility

Recent research has shown strong support for the model of reproductive behavior derived from the new home economics, and it is shown in this discussion that the evidence from the Federal Republic of Germany is consistent with the new home economics model. There is little support for Easterlin's relative economic hypothesis, but there is limited endorsement for model which adds the influence of experience based material aspirations to the new home economics model. Easterlin's relative income model is reviewed before directing attention to the new home economics model and an explanation of fertility movements in West Germany. The new home economics model focuses on the family division of labor between home activities and work outside the home. The marked decline in German fertility during the 1970s is mostly attributable to factors such as expanding women's earning capacities which increased the importance of 2 earner families, who have a different family division of labor and possibly preferences biased towards "quality" of children rather than numbers. Also, real wage growth lagged behind the growth in experience based aspirations, and this drop in relative income is more dramatic if it is presumed that material aspirations are based upon the family's income experienced by a young adult during his/her adolescence, rather than just the father's earnings. The mother's contribution to family income will contribute to her family's actual standard of living and the desired standard of living of her children. The labor force participation rates of married, middle-aged German women increased markedly during the 1st half of the 1950s, thus tending to enhance the increase in the standard of living desired by the young adults reaching marrying and childbearing ages in the mid-1960s. The analysis indicates that if there is not a substantial reduction in the proportion of young married women in the labor force, fertility will move countercyclically. In that there must be some floor to fertility, one should be cautious of using these parameter estimates considerably outside the 1950-1977 period. Nonetheless, the estimates indicate that economic growth will not bring a substantial rise in German fertility, and, outside the unlikely situation of sustained economic decline, fertility will remain low.     

Income mobility in Russia (2000–2005)

Using the data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS), this paper investigates income mobility in Russia during the period of rapid economic growth (2000–2005). Employing a broad set of mobility indices, we show that there is much mobility in household incomes from one year to the next and over longer periods in Russia. Both relative and absolute mobility in Russia are significantly higher than in Western countries. We demonstrate that income growth in Russia was strongly pro-poor in 2000–2005. Incomes of the relatively poor were growing faster than incomes of the relatively rich. However, this inequality-reducing effect was almost exactly offset by changes in the relative positions of individuals and the overall reduction in cross-sectional inequality was merely modest.     

Linkages between income inequality,international remittances and economic growth in Pakistan

This paper explores the dynamic linkages between income inequality, international remittances and economic growth using time series data over the period of 1976–2006 in case of Pakistan. The cointegration analysis based on the bounds test confirms the existence of a long-run relationship between income inequality, international remittances and economic growth. Our results reveal that income inequality and international remittances enhance economic growth. The causality analysis based on innovative accounting approach shows bidirectional causal relationship between income inequality and economic growth and same is true for international remittances and income inequality. International remittances are cause of economic growth but not vice versa. Although we find support for Kuznets hypothesis but Pakistan is yet to benefit, in terms of reducing the gaps of income inequality, from the international flow of remittances and economic growth. The paper argues that, from a policy perspective, there is an urgent need for policy makers in Pakistan to reduce the widening gap of income inequality by focusing on income redistribution policies and to go beyond the traditional factors in balancing income inequality.     

Variable population size issues in models of decentralized income redistribution

We examine the distributive implications of decentralized redistribution in a federation with mobility. From a regional perspective, redistribution involves variable populations. As distribution and population issues are normatively inseparable, regional social preferences should exhibit reasonable properties in both respects. Critical-level (CL) utilitarianism does so. In autarky, CL utilitarian governments implement an egalitarian solution. With free mobility some degree of inequality always proves optimal when critical levels are fixed. Egalitarianism can be reached as a Nash equilibrium if and only if average incomes are used as variable critical levels. Since this is unacceptable on efficiency grounds we conclude that under reasonable assumptions egalitarian outcomes do not survive in fiscal games.     

Stock markets,banks and the sources of economic growth in low and high income countries

This paper studies the effects of stock markets and banks on the sources of economic growth, productivity and capital accumulation, using a large cross country panel that includes high- and low-income countries. Results show that, in low-income countries, banks have a sizable positive effect on capital accumulation. We find that stock markets, however, have not contributed to capital accumulation or productivity growth in these countries. Given the emphasis that has been placed in developing equity markets in developing countries, these findings are somewhat surprising. Conversely, in high-income countries, stock markets are found to have sizable positive effects on both productivity and capital growth, while banks only affect capital accumulation.     

The future's poor: Projecting the population eligible for federal housing assistance

Microanalytic simulation techniques are used to show that, under a reasonable set of assumptions, the real income of elderly households can be projected to grow at a rate higher than that of other population groups over the next several decades. Simulation modeling also shows that current low marriage and fertility rates and high divorce rates, if continued, will lead to a future population that is proportionately more elderly and of smaller average family size. A number of federal, state, and local assistance programs restrict eligibility to low-income households. In an application to the major federal housing assistance program, it is shown that future growth in the number of elderly households may well be offset by their relatively high income growth, leaving the proportion elderly among those eligible for assistance essentially unchanged over the next 40 years. The findings imply that future changes in the demographic composition of the U.S. population may not be reflected in the composition of the low-income population. This possibility should be considered in planning assistance programs targeted on the poor.     

Income redistribution versus accelerated economic growth: a comparison of demographic effects

An attempt is made to identify the effects on fertility and mean expectation of life of varying rates of growth in aggregate income and of changes in the income share of the poorer segments of the population. The extent to which these effects vary among developing countries with different levels of mean income is also considered. An econometric model is developed to estimate the direction and strength of the structural relationships among the key variables, and simulation methods are used to predict the final demographic effects of altering either the growth rate or the size distribution of income. The results suggest that there is no general justification for income redistribution as a means of slowing rates of population growth in a developing country. It may be relevant in the more advanced developing countries, but even in those, more direct means (such as family planning programs, education, and health services) may be more effective. This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1983 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 49, No. 3, Fall 1983, p. 356).     

Development threshold,capital flows,and financial turbulence

We study capital flows in a panel of 130 countries, and derive the implications for the observed patterns of capital flows and capital controls before and into the crisis of 2008–11. We find that the size of capital flows is positively correlated with country's income level. In addition, capital flight has a non-linear relationship with the income level. Using the Hansen threshold estimation, we identify a three-stage threshold effect: for low-income countries (GDP per capita below US$ 3,000), capital flight increases as the income level rises; and only after the economy passes a threshold level (GDP per capita above US$ 5,000), capital flight declines with income. We conclude with a case study of Brazil and Korea, observing that the decisions to implement capital control measures tend to be pushed around by the feedbacks among economic growth, currency appreciation, and the global financial conditions.     

Global estimates of growth–inequality–poverty (GIP) triangle: evidence from World Bank’s classification countries

This study extended the concept of ‘growth–inequality–poverty (GIP) triangle’ by using the principle component approach which allows us to composite different poverty and inequality indicators into one single index that contains most of the useful information from the original dataset. Using the idea of GIP triangle, this study examines the long-run relationship among weighted poverty index (which comprises headcount ratio, poverty gap and squared poverty gap); weighted inequality index (i.e., Watts Index, Gini Index and MLD Index) and average monthly per capita income in the designated 138 countries according to World Bank’s classification over a period of 2005–2010. The data set mainly contain countries’ unit record household survey at least one which is conducted between the countries during the sample period. The regression model encompassing the impact of economic growth and income inequality on poverty reflects that income inequality increases poverty while economic growth decreases poverty. It indicates that the impact of inequality in increasing poverty is a somewhat greater than that of growth in average income in reducing overall poverty in a sample countries. The other regression model encompassing the impact of economic growth and poverty on income inequality showed that the poverty itself is also likely to be a barrier for poverty reduction; and inequality seems to predict lower future growth rates. The final regression model depicting the impact of poverty and income inequality on mean income of the household suggests that poverty itself reduces mean income of the household while income inequality increases economic growth. The results are interesting and simply suggest that whenever social institutions malfunction, the incidence of damage would usually be distributed unevenly over the society’s members.     

Family planning costs and benefits

Government sponsored family planning programs have had major success in declining birth rates in Barbados, China, Cuba, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Mexico, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, and Thailand. Non- government programs have had similar success in Brazil and Colombia. These programs have been estimated as preventing over 100 million births in China and 80 million in India. Research indicates that family planning programs can produce a 30-50% drop in fertility. Family planning information and some contraceptives can be best distributed through community organizations. Research also indicates male opposition has been a major factor in wider acceptance of family planning. Surveys indicate that 50% of the woman who want no additional children are not using any birth control. Many governments do not have the resource and money to implement programs. In the developing countries if those who were able to prevent the unwanted births had birth control, the population increases in those countries would have been 1.3% versus 2.2%. In earlier family planning programs foreign assistance paid over 80% of the cost, and national governments 20%; today this is reversed. The World Bank estimates that for major improvements in population growth and women's health, $7 billion will be needed yearly by the year 2000. The countries that have had the similar goals in development of human resources, social services, health, and education. They have attended to the status of women, female employment, and maternal and child health. Estimates are that 1.3 billion couples and individuals will need family planning services by the year 2000, and this will be a formidable task. This key elements of successful family planning programs are community participation, decentralization, and training.     

Cash transfers versus jobs programs

This paper uses a microsimulation computer model to compare the work incentive and distributional implications of public service employment programs and direct transfer programs. The simulation findings suggest that a pure direct transfer program would diminish poverty and inequality by somewhat more than an equal cost plan than combined direct transfers with a jobs program. Moreover, the results imply that a redistribution scheme based entirely on direct transfers is at least as effective per dollar of tax expenditure in raising incomes as a combination of direct transfers and jobs. Furthermore, the simulated job and direct transfer combinations were predicted to cause reductions in private sector earnings that are at least as large as those that would result from comparable schemes that relied solely upon direct transfers.     

Boom, bust, and the poor: Poverty dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa, 1970–1999

This paper analyzes changes in poverty and inequality in the Middle East and North Africa. It finds that the structural relationship between poverty reduction, income growth and distribution is the same for MENA and other developing economies. Prior to 1985 rapid growth sharply reduced poverty. After 1985, despite very low income growth, a rising share of income accruing to the lowest quintile meant that the average income of the poor rose more rapidly than that of the non-poor. These unusual poverty dynamics were primarily due to international migration. Remittances both increased per capita incomes in labor exporting countries and increased the share of income accruing to the poor.     

Bridging Africa’s income inequality gap: How relevant is China’s outward FDI to Africa?

This study examines whether: (i) the remarkable inflow of Chinese FDI to Africa matters for bridging the continent’s marked income inequality gap, (ii) Africa’s institutional fabric is effective in propelling Chinese FDI towards the equalisation of incomes in Africa and (iii) there exist relevant thresholds required for the various governance dynamics to cause Chinese FDI to equalise incomes in Africa. Our results, which are based on the dynamic GMM estimator and macrodata for 48 African countries, reveal the following. First, although Chinese FDI contributes to fairer income distribution in Africa, the effect is weak. Second, although Africa’s institutional fabric matters for propelling Chinese FDI towards the equalisation of incomes across the continent, governance mechanisms for ensuring political stability, low corruption, and voice and accountability are critical. Finally, the critical masses required for these three key governance dynamics to cause Chinese FDI and other income inequality-reducing modules to reduce income inequality are 0.8, 0.5 and 0.1, respectively. These critical masses are thresholds at which governance is necessary but no longer sufficient to complement Chinese FDI to mitigate income inequality. Hence, at the attendant thresholds, complementary policies are worthwhile. Policy recommendations are provided in the conclusion.     

中美两国经济实力与潜力的比较分析

改革开放以来,经过30多年的发展,中国已重新成为全球经济大国之一。本文利用C-D生产函数和索洛增长模型对中国中长期经济发展进行预测,在国内外研究成果的基础上对美国中长期经济发展进行预测,探讨了在不同情况下中美两国经济的对比分析和追及问题。本文预测结果表明,中国经济只要保持平稳增长,将在2030年前实现多个目标：一是GDP总量超过美国;二是人均GDP超过1.7万美元;三是人均国民总收入接近高收入国家行列;四是商品零售额、商品进口额等宏观指标赶上美国。     

The Foundations of Rapid Economic Growth

A bstract The fast pace of economic growth of the East Asian nations known as the " Four Tigers "– South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore –has become a legend It is usually claimed that the export-oriented industrialization (EOI) strategy was the basic cause of that rapid growth However, it is contended that the growth strategy of these countries was the result of certain unique historical and geo-political factors The colonial government had created the necessary infrastructure and international linkages which set the stage for initiating the EOI strategy Furthermore, because of the political support accorded to them from foreign governments, these countries, with the exception of Hong Kong, excluded major oppositional groups from sharing political power, and thus they were able to pursue effectively growth and export-oriented policies South Korea and Taiwan also received a large amount of foreign aid from the U S This aid, and the fact the U S laid open its huge market for cheaper Asian exports without insisting on reciprocity , prepared the conditions for export-led growth in those countries