Population policy: do we need it? Prospects and problems

A 1983 report by the Whitsun Foundation called upon the Government of Zimbabwe to recognize the urgent nature of that country's population problem and to devise and implement a comprehensive population policy aimed at reducing morbidity and mortality among women and children, reducing the population growth rate, and reducing the fertility level. This article challenges the Whitsun Foundation's view that population pressure is the primary cause of poverty in Zimbabwe and that family planning is a feasible remedy. It is argued instead that poverty in Zimbabwe can be traced to capitalist development policies that have removed from rural people the means to produce their own subsistence. More important that large-scale birth control programs are radical structural and institutional changes aimed at achieving social and economic progress and directly attacking poverty, unemployment, and inequality. Those countries where marked declines in birth rates have been achieved have usually been those that spread the benefits of development throughout their populations. Moreover, the Whitsun report implies that there is no family planning program in Zimbabwe. In fact, in 1982, an estimated 200,000 people received contraception through the Child Spacing and Fertility Association of Zimbabwe's program. It is unlikely that an expanded birth control program and educational campaign to persuade the rural and urban poor to practice family planning will be effective. Policy makers will have to address the cynicism brought about by the colonial regimes' genocidal efforts in the 1960s and 1970s to introduce birth control measures.     

Family planning in developing nations: a global concern,our concern

Rapid population growth is a serious problem in many developing countries and family planning policies developed in response to the problem raise many ethical issues; home economists can help the citizens in their respective countries increase their knowledge of population dynamics and help them assess the ethical implications of population and family planning policies. Most developing countries have high population growth rates. The annual population growth rates for 1975-79 were 2.8% for Africa, 2.6% for Latin America, and 2.1% for Asia. Population grows exponentially: a population growing at an annual rate of 3% increases. 1900% in a century. If current population trends continue the world's population will stablize toward the end of the 21st century at about 10 billion persons, compared to the world's present population of 4.3 billion. Rapid population growth not only threatens the future welfare of society as a whole, but currently impedes the economic development of the world's poorest nations. Consequently, the governments in many developing countries have adopted vigorous family planning programs. It is difficult to reduce population growth in developing countries because these countries have a high proportion of young people in their populations, i.e., a high number of persons of reproductive age. Barriers to family planning acceptance include 1) high illiteracy rates 2) high infant mortality rates 3) the high economic and socialvalue placed on children in developing countries and 4)religious beliefs. Methods used by governments to alter population growth include 1) manipulating access to contraceptives, 2)developing programs to alter social determinants of fertility, 3) using propaganda to encourage or discourage birth control and repressing information contrary to the government's policies, 4) offering incentives to those who further government policies and imposing disincentives on those who do not comply with government policies, and 5) exerting political pressure to force individual to comply with the govermnent's policies. The use of some of these methods raises ethical issues. When does pressure become coercion? Is coecion justified by the need to ensure the future welfare of the world? In India, sterilization was promoted by making payments to sterilization acceptors and promoters and to physicians who performed sterilizations. In Taiwan, savings deposits were made for children of couples with 1 or 2 children, and the deposits were decreased in additional childred were born. In China incentives, disincentives, and polititcal and peer pressure are used to promote the governt's family planning policies. Do these strong measures lead to infaticide and to the abuse of children whose births result in economic loss for other family members? Do they violate human rights? These issues should be discussed in home economics classes, and additional efforts must be made to ensure that male students are also provided with population information. Home economists can promote the critical assessment of the population problem and its solutions.     

Capital accumulation,income distribution and endogenous fertility in an overlapping generations general equilibrium model

A study is conducted in attempts to increase the understanding of the links between macroeconomic effects and causes of population growth in formulating policy. An overlapping generations general equilibrium model is employed aggregating household decisions about fertility, savings, and investment in the human capital of children with the objective of studying intertemporal relationships among population growth, income distribution, inter-generation social mobility, skill composition of the labor force, and household income. As a result of endogenous fertility, the equilibrium path attains steady state from the second generation. Income tax transfer, child taxation, and social security taxation policies are also examined in the paper. A structural explanation is given for the inverse household income-child quantity and negative child quality-quantity relationships seen in developing countries. In a Cobb-Douglas economy, these relationships hold in the short-run, potentially working over the long-run in other economies. Overall, the model shows that group interests may hinder emergence of perfect capital markets with private initiatives. Where developing countries are concerned, these results have strong implications for population policy. A policy mix of building good quality schools, or subsidizing rural education, introducing a formal social security program, and providing high-yield, risk-free investments, banking, and insurance services to the poor is recommended.     

人口和计划生育利益导向政策研究:回顾与前瞻

人口和计划生育利益导向政策的发展经历了从最初简单的节育手术等节制生育的服务措施,到明确将利益导向政策上升到国家制度层面,再到全面建设和发展利益导向政策体系的几个重要阶段。随着计划生育政策目标由降低生育率向稳定低生育水平、统筹解决人口问题、实现人口长期均衡发展的转变,利益导向方法、手段与措施的不断丰富与拓展,人口和计划生育利益导向政策也面临着人口和计划生育利益导向政策的科学评估、普惠政策与利益导向政策协调机制的建立与完善、人口长期均衡发展背景下计划生育利益导向政策走向的明确等-系列新的研究课题。     

Fertility and climate change*

A quarter of the total increase in emissions is attributable to the growth of emissions per capita, whereas three-quarters are due to population growth. This evidence notwithstanding, demography in climate–economy models typically follows exogenous trends. We develop a climate–economy integrated model with endogenous fertility through a quality–quantity trade-off. The decentralization of the social optimum requires two complementary instruments: a carbon pricing policy and family planning interventions. Global population increases and reaches a peak, depending on the scenario, between 11.6 billion in the social optimum and 14.6 billion if only carbon prices are implemented. Fertility costs (i.e., the net present value of the climate-related costs per child) are in 2020 estimated to be about 22,000 euros in the “social optimum” scenario, and about 88,000 euros in the “second-best with fertility taxes” scenario. Carbon pricing tends to have a rebound effect as it increases population growth leading to higher future emissions. Our results highlight the effects of fertility choices and global population on climate change, quantifying the cost of neglecting the interaction.     

World Population Growth; Past, Present and Future

Past, current and projected future population growth is outlined. Barring a calamitous pandemic, a further increase in the world’s population from 7 to between 8.8 and 10 billion by mid-century is unavoidable. This increase is driven by high fertility in sub-Saharan Africa whose population is forecast to more than double in the next 40 years and by a modest rise of 23 % in Asia’s huge population. Beyond mid-century, the range of plausible demographic destinations widens; much depends on fertility rates in the next few decades because they will determine the number of potential reproducers in the second half of the century. Vigorous promotion of family planning, particularly in Africa, is crucial to achievement of population stabilisation. Unchanged fertility implies a global population of 25 billion by the end of the century. In the next few decades the contribution of human population growth to global environmental change is moderate, because nearly all growth will occur in poor countries where consumption and emission of greenhouse gases is low. The implications for food production, and thereby water consumption, are greater. Much of the future need for food will be driven by increased numbers rather than changing diets. Loss of bio-diversity and natural habitats, degradation of fragile eco-systems due to over-exploitation and aquifer deletion are likely consequences.     

Growth,fertility and human capital: A survey

This paper surveys recent work on endogenous fertility and endogenous growth. These models provide the building blocks for a theory of development. They are capable of explaining income and fertility differentials between rich and poor countries. They can produce switching behavior, countries that transform themselves from no growth economies into high growth economies. The fertility and growth effects of social security programs are also examined. Finally models with increasing returns to population are presented. They are capable of reproducing very long term relationships between human capital, fertility and economic growth.     

中国未来生育政策的选择

近年来社会上对是否应该放开中国的计划生育政策有很多争论。争论的起因是由于一些调查数据反映的和某些学者估计出的我国目前生育率非常低;鉴于低生育率已经给比较发达的国家带来了很多问题,所以有人呼吁中国的生育政策应该放开。通过对放开生育政策和不放开生育政策两种情形可能导致的人口学后果进行估计,结合国外的经验和教训,从低生育率的长期后果来分析如何合理地选择生育政策。为了避免人口达到零增长后的快速负增长、快速老龄化和人口规模的迅速减少,国家应该密切关注人们生育意愿的变化,必须在适当的时候放开生育政策,使生育水平保持在2.0左右,从而尽可能地避免长期的、过快的负增长给国家和社会带来更为严重的人口与社会经济问题。     

"二孩政策"与学区房溢价——基于人口政策变化的政策评价分析

我国人口生育政策的调整是政府在我国经济进入中高速发展阶段之后做出的重大决策,对社会经济各个方面会产生重要影响.文章着眼于政策调整、家庭规划和政府公共产品需求,以上海市住房数据为基础,分析了我国"二孩政策"对现阶段学区房价格的影响.文章以特征回归模型为基础,讨论了人口政策变化对学区房价格的影响.研究发现,在人口新政出台后,与临近的普通住房相比,学区房的相对溢价程度更高.文章进一步采用固定边界法,发现优质学区房的溢价涨幅(约为8.6%-11.8%)高于普通学区房(约为2.49%-3.97%),充分说明在人口政策调整后,我国部分家庭对优质教育更加渴望.文章采用匹配回归进行了稳健性检验,仍支持上述研究结论.     

现行生育政策研究

现行生育政策最初是在1982年中央11号文件中提出来的。它对于纠正从1978年开始提出并逐渐形成的“一胎化”生育政策的偏差,起到一定的积极作用。但是,在控制人口效果方面,现行生育政策对于抑制农村妇女的早婚早育和多胎生育、调节和疏导我国第三次生育高峰却没有多少实际意义。相反,由于现行生育政策同广大农民的生育意愿之间的差距过大,在长期执行过程中一直在给农民造成巨大的伤害,所以,迅速改变现行生育政策,彻底纠正“一胎化”生育政策给社会稳定带来的隐患,是一件刻不容缓的事情。     

Perspectives on International Trends and Dynamics in Population and Consumption

There are increasing concerns that global environmental limits may soon be met as a result of increasing numbers of people coupled with increasing consumption of resources. However, the current level and rates of growth in both consumption and population vary systematically among countries grouped according to income levels. Many high income countries have population growth rates at close to replacement levels, but their per capita consumption is consistently several times higher than low income countries. Low income countries need to grow out of poverty and have high population growth rates. Using current population structures for India and the USA in an age-structured demographic model, and simple projections of annual reductions in fertility or consumption per capita over the next 50 years, we show that while reductions in both consumption and fertility are necessary to stabilize impacts, there are short term gains from consumption reductions in high income countries such as the USA, and long term gains from early fertility reductions in growing economies such as India.     

Population growth and economic growth: a reconsideration

The relationship between population growth and development has long been a controversial topic in the economic development literature. Early work by Hoover and Coale and more recent work by Blanchet suggest that high fertility suppresses per capita income growth. However, recent work by Kelley and Srinivasan are ambivalent about such a neo-Malthusian relationship between population growth and economic growth. The authors examine these conflicting positions. They emphasize that the rates of both population growth and income growth are endogenous variables within a general equilibrium framework. An endogenous growth model with endogenous fertility is then developed. It is found that when all exogenous variables are controlled for, there exists an inverse relation between population growth and economic growth. However, when some exogenous factors change, such as an improvement in technological progress, the relation becomes ambiguous. This suggests that the conflicting findings in the literature may be because of the presence of substantial heterogeneity in unobserved variables across countries and over time in cross-country panel data sets.     

The demographic transition revisited: lessons for foreign aid and U.S. immigration policy.

"The completed demographic transitions in industrialized countries inspired a model which underlies many well-meant policies affecting the Third World. However, the model's postulate--modernization and prosperity will lower fertility rates--has exacerbated rather than helped control worldwide population growth and the associated environmental degradation. Here we show that perceived economic opportunity leads to raising family size targets and to discarding elements of traditional cultures which formerly held fertility rates in check. Conversely, fertility rates fall when limits are recognized. These observations imply that a liberal immigration policy and large-scale foreign aid are counterproductive for restoring balance between population size and carrying capacity."     

TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS AND POPULATION GROWTH: DO WE HAVE TOO FEW CHILDREN?

Do we have too few children? We intend to address this question. In developed countries, the fertility rate has declined since WWII. This may cause a slowdown in the growth of GDP in developed countries. However, important factors for the well‐being of individuals are per capita variables, like per capita growth and per capita consumption. In turn, the rate of technological progress determines the growth rates of per capita variables. If the population size is increasing, the labour inputs for R&D activity increase, and thus speed up technological progress. As individuals do not take account of this positive effect when deciding on the number of their own children, the number of children may become smaller than the socially optimal number of children. However, an increase in the number of children reduces the assets any one child owns: that is, there is a capital dilution effect. This works in the opposite direction. We examine this issue using an endogenous growth model where the head of a dynastic family decides the number of children.     

Growth and poverty in developing countries

Despite the developing countries' impressive aggregate growth of the past 25 years, its benefits have only reached the poor to a very limited degree. Not only have the poorest countries grown relatively slowly, but growth processes are such that within most developing countries, the incomes of the poor increase much less than the average. Although many policies have been proposed to counter these trends, little has been done to estimate the possibilities for significantly reducing world poverty within a reasonable period. This paper develops a quantitative framework to project levels of poverty under different assumptions about GNP growth population growth and changes in income distribution. Although the interactions among development processes and policy instruments are not modelled in any detail, the results serve to clarify the nature of the problem. The policy simulations demonstrate that the elimination of absolute poverty by the end of this century is a highly unlikely prospect; even to achieve a substantial reduction will require a combination of policies designed to accelerate the growth of poor countries, to distribute the benefits of growth more equitably, and to reduce population increase.     

Growth and welfare effects of monetary policy with endogenous fertility

This paper investigates the economic growth and social welfare implications of monetary policy in an endogenous growth model with endogenous fertility. We show that, in the money-in-the-utility-function framework, endogenous fertility governs the validity of money superneutrality, the transitional dynamics of an anticipated monetary policy, and the optimal monetary policy. Along a balanced growth path, monetary growth increases fertility and reduces the economic growth rate if consumption and real balances are complements or are independent. However, monetary expansion may decrease fertility and increase economic growth if consumption and real balances are substitutes. Generally speaking, the superneutrality of money does not hold in the presence of endogenous fertility. More importantly, with endogenous fertility, the Friedman (1969) rule is no longer a welfare-maximizing monetary policy. We also show that an anticipated inflation induces the transitional dynamics of fertility and the economic growth rate even though the intertemporal elasticity of substitution equals unity. This differs from the conventional notion in the existing literature.     

低生育稳定期:中国特色的人口转变阶段

从人口转变角度审视和分析当前中国人口发展的形势,提出中国的人口转变有一个独特的阶段,即低生育稳定期。分析了低生育稳定期的阶段性特征。这个时期问题复杂,趋向明朗,是主要矛盾转换期和生育政策调整期。还分析了这一时期中国人口发展战略目标的转换及相应的对策。     

论生育政策的制定与调整——一个过程论的分析视角

生育政策主要以立法、行政决策和党的规范性文件为表达形式。生育政策在生育数量、社会抚养费和对违反法律、法规生育者行政处分等方面面临着一系列问题,产生这些问题的重要原因之一便是生育政策制定和调整过程中科学性和民主性的缺失。良好的生育政策的制定与调整,需要多领域专家的论证,以专业性和中立性来保证政策的科学性;同时也需要广大公众的积极参与,以通过组织化的基本权利之利益诉求的表达来保证政策的民主性。     

Land reforms and population growth

One of the greatest puzzles in demographic history is why in the rich and urbanized England, fertility declined much later than in the poor and rural France. We consider the effects of a land reform on demographic growth by a family-optimization model where relative per capita wealth generates social status and welfare. We show that tenant farming is the major obstacle to escaping the Malthusian trap with high fertility and low productivity. A land reform provides peasants with higher returns for their investments, inducing them to increase their productivity and status rather than their family size. Consequently, the population growth rate slows down, but the productivity of land increases.     

二孩政策地区经验的普适性及其相关问题——兼对“21世纪中国生育政策研究”的评价

在仔细研读"21世纪中国生育政策研究"课题系列研究报告的基础上,认为二孩政策试点成效卓著,试点经验具有普适性,但同时也存在某些局限。国家与学者应切实承担起指导中国基层人口与计划生育工作实践的责任。生育政策、生育水平、出生性别比、计划生育工作之间并非简单的线性关系,在生育政策制定与调整中价值判断与事实判断两者不可偏废。部分省份某些计划生育利益导向政策缺乏正当性,应该予以废除。