Efficiency in housing markets: Which home buyers know how to discount?

We test for efficiency in the Swedish co-op market by examining the negative relationship between the sales price and the present value of future monthly payments or ‘rents’. If the co-op housing market is efficient, the present value of co-op rental payments due to underlying debt obligations of the cooperative should be fully reflected in the sales price. However, a one hundred kronor increase in the present value of future rents only leads to an approximately 75 kronor reduction in the sales price. These inefficiencies are larger at the lower end of the housing market and in poorer, less educated regions and appear to reflect both liquidity constraints and the existence of more ‘sophisticated’ buyers in higher educated areas. Overall, our findings suggest that there is some systematic failure to properly discount the future stream of rent payments relative to the up front sales price.     

What moves international stock and bond markets?

We study the relation between international mutual fund flows and the different return components of aggregate equity and bond markets. First, we decompose international equity and bond market returns into changes in expectations of future real cash payments, interest rates, exchange rates, and discount rates. News about future cash flows, rather than discount rates, is the main driver of international stock returns. This evidence is in contrast with the typical results reported only for the US. Inflation news instead is the main driver of international bond returns. Next, we turn to the interaction between these return components and international portfolio flows. We find evidence consistent with price pressure, short-term trend chasing, and short-run overreaction in the equity market. We also find that international bond flows to emerging markets are more sensitive to interest rate shocks than equity flows.     

定向增发新股折扣率的影响因素及其与公司短期股价关系的实证研究——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

本文分析了影响中国上市公司定向增发新股折扣率的因素,并研究了中国上市公司定向增发新股折扣率对公司短期股价表现的影响。本文认为,影响中国上市公司定向增发新股折扣率的因素与外国不同,中国上市公司定向增发新股折扣率的高低与股东的身份有关,向控股股东及关联投资者定向增发新股的折扣率要低于向非关联投资者定向增发新股的折扣率。并且,中国上市公司定向增发新股的折扣率越低,投资者获得的超额累积收益率越高。本文运用中国证券市场定向增发新股的数据,对影响中国上市公司定向增发新股折扣率的因素及中国上市公司定向增发新股折扣率对公司短期股价表现的影响分别进行了实证研究,实证研究结果证明了本文理论分析的结论。     

Price Elasticity of Demand and an Optimal Cash Discount Rate in Credit Policy

While the provision of a cash discount is equivalent to a reduction in price, the role of price elasticity of demand in determining credit terms has been neglected in the extant literature. In this paper, this role is investigated and it is shown that the optimal cash discount rate is affected by the price elasticity of demand for the firm's product. The comparative effects on the optimal cash discount rate with respect to exogenous changes in the fraction of credit sales paid after taking cash discount, the cost of short-term funds and the bad debt loss ratio are investigated. A trade-off between the time value gain and the price elasticity of demand is established. We find that firms which sell in locations having different price elasticities for their products, and/or which face various costs of short-term funds in different locations, should vary their cash discount terms accordingly.     

The Impact of Housing Markets on Consumer Debt: Credit Report Evidence from 1999 to 2012

We estimate the response of consumer debt portfolios to pronounced housing market swings from 1999 to 2012 using Equifax‐sourced credit report data and a variety of identification approaches. We find: (i) the extraordinary climb in home equity debt from 2002 to 2006 is an expression of a stable, longer‐term relationship between house price growth and home equity borrowing; (ii) all preboom homeowners, and older and prime postboom homeowners, demonstrate near dollar‐for‐dollar substitution between (expensive) credit card and (cheap) home equity debt in response to home equity changes; and (iii) little evidence of substitution between home equity and student loan debt.     

Another Look at Effects of “Adults-Only” Age Restrictions on Housing Prices

This study reexamines the price effects of age restrictions on housing prices. Our data cover a period when the housing market is taking a steep downturn. We argue that, when housing prices are falling, seniors are more likely to avoid investing in housing for at least two reasons. First, seniors are relatively more sensitive to their immediate equity loss than younger homeowners, mainly due to the limited remaining lifetime over which they can afford to wait; second, age-restriction acts as a luxury good, with seniors not willing to pay for reduction in neighborhood uncertainty, eliminating buyer demand for this segment of the population. If this “larger demand loss” outweighs the positive externality of the reduction in neighborhood uncertainty during the market downturn, we would observe that age-restrictions reduce property values. Using data from Broward County, Florida for the years of 2005–2007, we find a significant discount in residential condominium prices due to age-restrictions. In particular, we find that imposing age-restriction on properties decreases housing prices by 17.9% during the period May 2005 to April 2006, while the discount is worse, 22.7%, during the later period May 2006 to May 2007.     

Housing Price Dynamics in Time and Space: Predictability,Liquidity and Investor Returns

It is widely accepted that aggregate housing prices are predictable, but that excess returns to investors are precluded by the transactions costs of buying and selling property. We examine this issue using a unique data set—all private condominium transactions in Singapore during an eleven-year period. We model directly the price discovery process for individual dwellings. Our empirical results clearly reject a random walk in prices, supporting mean reversion in housing prices and diffusion of innovations over space. We find that, when house prices and aggregate returns are computed from models that erroneously assume a random walk and spatial independence, they are strongly autocorrelated. However, when they are calculated from the appropriate model, predictability in prices and in investment returns is completely absent. We show that this is due to the illiquid nature of housing transactions. We also conduct extensive simulations, over different time horizons and with different investment rules, testing whether better information on housing price dynamics leads to superior investment performance.     

Government real estate interventions and the stock market

We study the spillover of government interventions in the real estate market to the stock market. We find that the more active mutual funds decreased ownership in equities with no short-term reversal. Furthermore, they increased ownership in the finance sector stocks without significant changes to their real estate equity holdings. The interventions affecting the riskiness of the finance sector stocks triggered a larger trading response than the ones focused on the real estate sector stocks’ cash flows. Overall, the spillover of the housing market shocks to the stock market seems to be materialized mostly through the discount rate channel.     

The Information Content Of Calls Of Debt: Evidence From Long-Run Stock Returns

We examine the long‐run performance of the common stock of firms following calls of both straight and convertible debt from 1945 to 1995. Using a sample of 718 calls of straight debt, we find an average abnormal return in the five years following the call of between 0.16% and 0.34% per month, which compounds to an economically and statistically significant 11% to 22% over the five‐year period. This evidence of overperformance following calls shows a distinct symmetry between the straight debt and equity markets. Issues of debt and equity are both followed by long‐term underperformance, whereas stock repurchases and debt calls are both followed by long‐run overperformance. For our sample of 713 calls of convertible debt, we find little systematic evidence of abnormal performance following the call. Some researchers suggest that calls of convertible debt provide negative signals to the market. Our results provide no support for this claim. In contrast, our evidence of marginal positive long‐run returns provides weak support for the model that calls of convertible debt signal the realization of profitable investment options, and for the price pressure hypothesis.     

Discount Point Concessions and the Value of Homes with Conventional versus Nonconventional Mortgage Financing

This is an empirical investigation on the impacts of certain seller concessions on home prices. Specifically, we examine the impacts of two seller concessions: discount point concessions (DPCs) and closing cost concessions (CCCs) on home prices. Using hedonic analysis, we find that DPCs are capitalized into home prices. We do not find that CCCs produce capitalization effects. DPCs appear to work in a manner similar to other creative financing techniques such as a buydown mortgage. DPCs enhance affordability by lowering interest costs and debt service payments. DPCs thus lead to increases in effective demand. CCCs will reduce out of pocket expenses but will not necessarily enhance long-term affordability, thus their price effects are less certain. We show that these price premiums are prevalent only when conventional mortgage financing is used. When FHA and VA loans are used, premiums disappear. Of course, governmental insured/guaranteed loans are much more subject to regulation than conventional loans, which may prevent homesellers from price premium maximization. The study establishes the relative significance of discount points versus closing costs as marketing incentives. It appears that the use of discount points as a marketing incentive produces more capitalization effects. The presence of such capitalization effects is consistent with results found in other creative financing studies.     

Tobin's Q, Debt Overhang, and Investment

Incorporating debt in a dynamic real options framework, we show that underinvestment stems from truncation of equity's horizon at default. Debt overhang distorts both the level and composition of investment, with underinvestment being more severe for long‐lived assets. An empirical proxy for the shadow price of capital to equity is derived. Use of this proxy yields a structural test for debt overhang and its mitigation through issuance of additional secured debt. Using measurement error‐consistent GMM estimators, we find a statistically significant debt overhang effect regardless of firms' ability to issue additional secured debt.     

INFLATION,SECURITY VALUES,AND RISK PREMIA

The impact of stochastic inflation on the cross-sectional structure of nominal securities yields is examined. The analysis indicates that equilibrium required returns on debt and equity securities are affected differently by inflation and that the “Fisher Effect” is more likely to hold for equity returns than for debt yields. Implications for empirical investigations of portfolio performance and the real interest rate are explored.     

The disciplinary role of debt and equity contracts: Theory and tests

We study how equity and debt contracts commit investors to discipline managers. Our model shows that the optimal allocation of debt, equity, and control rights depends on which disciplinary action is more efficient. When the efficient action is managerial replacement, then control rights should be allocated to equity holders, and capital structure should consist of equity and long-term debt. When the efficient action is liquidation, then control rights can be allocated to the manager, and capital structure should consist of equity and short-term debt. We find empirical support to the model's predictions in a sample of leveraged buyout transactions.     

Turnovers and Housing Price Dynamics: Evidence from Singapore Condominium Market

Recent real estate literature has not only proposed a few theories to explain the puzzling macro feature of the positive correlation between price and transaction volume, but also attempted to identify the causal relationships between them. However, there is little empirical evidence to explicitly illustrate how housing price dynamics measured by both past price changes and price volatility at housing unit level affect housing turnovers. Using a unique housing transaction database from Singapore condominium market, this paper reveals an interesting housing turnover pattern in response to past housing price dynamics. The results illustrate that the rise and fall of a dwelling’s price can significantly affect housing turnovers in the same direction. Higher volatility reduces housing turnovers. The effects are stronger in the domain of losses and are weakening as the cumulative housing equity rises, implying that a seller withholds the sale in the downswing of a real estate cycle in the hope that the market will rebound. The findings offer some additional micro empirical evidence to the interactions between housing price and transaction volume and imply upwardly biased repeat sales indexes.     

Asset Quality Misrepresentation by Financial Intermediaries: Evidence from the RMBS Market

We document that contractual disclosures by intermediaries during the sale of mortgages contained false information about the borrower's housing equity in 7–14% of loans. The rate of misrepresented loan default was 70% higher than for similar loans. These misrepresentations likely occurred late in the intermediation and exist among securities sold by all reputable intermediaries. Investors—including large institutions—holding securities with misrepresented collateral suffered severe losses due to loan defaults, price declines, and ratings downgrades. Pools with misrepresentations were not issued at a discount. Misrepresentation on another easy‐to‐quantify dimension shows that these effects are a conservative lower bound.     

Consistent valuation of project finance and LBOs using the flows‐to‐equity method

The flows‐to‐equity method is used to value transactions where debt amortizes according to a fixed schedule, requiring a formula that links the changing leverage with a time‐varying equity discount rate. We show that extant formulas yield incorrect valuations because they are inconsistent with the basic assumptions of this method. The error from using the wrong formula can be large, especially at currently low interest rates. We derive a formula that captures the effects of a fixed debt plan, potentially expensive debt, and costs of financial distress. We resolve an important issue about what to use as the cost of debt.     

Revisiting corporate dividends and seasoned equity issues

Information signaling is regarded as an important motivating factor in corporate payout decisions, particularly with regard to cash dividends and the costly information signaling which they provide. Although Loderer and Mauer (1992) find little evidence to suggest that the announcements of firms’ equity offers are timed to arrive just after dividend declarations as a means of supporting the offer price. Using updated data, we determine that the dividend declaration does have a positive effect on the market reaction to equity offering announcements. We find that the abnormal returns from the announcement of seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) were −1.45 per cent for those SEO firms which had already made dividend declarations, whereas the returns for those SEO firms where the equity issue did not immediately follow a dividend declaration were −1.83 per cent. In this study, we interpret the changes in the impact of the dividend declaration on the equity offering announcement using the ‘tax regulation hypothesis’ and the ‘information asymmetry hypothesis’, and find that while our empirical results provide strong support for the latter, they provide only weak support for the former.     

Selectivity,Quality Adjustment and Mean Reversion in the Measurement of House Values*

This paper develops a model of price formation in the housing market which accounts for the non-random selection of those dwellings sold on the market from the stock of existing houses. The model we develop also accounts for changes in the quality of dwellings themselves and tests for mean reversion in individual house prices. The model is applied to a unique body of data representing all dwellings sold in Sweden's largest metropolitan area during the period 1982–1999. The analysis compares house price indices that account for selectivity, quality change and mean reversion with the conventional repeat sales models used to describe the course of metropolitan housing prices. We find that the repeat sales method yields systematically large biased estimates of the value of the housing stock. Our comparison suggests that the more general approach to the estimation of housing prices or housing wealth yields substantially improved estimates of the course of housing prices and housing wealth.     

The effect of interest rate volatility and equity volatility on corporate bond yield spreads: A comparison of noncallables and callables

This research investigates the impact of interest rate volatility upon corporate bond yield spreads. We first consider the impact of interest rate volatility upon noncallable bond spreads. Because greater interest rate volatility likely increases the volatility of the firm's debt, we hypothesize that the relation will be positive. Given that we do find a positive relation, we thus investigate whether the positive effect of interest rate volatility on yield spreads is stronger or weaker for callable bonds. We find that the effect is weaker for callable bonds. This result indicates that there is a negative relation between default spreads and call spreads, which is consistent with the theory of Acharya and Carpenter (2002), but in contrast to the theory of King (2002). Furthermore, our results for the relationship between equity volatility and yield spread tend to support Acharya and Carpenter (2002) more than King (2002).     

Information Transfers across Same–Sector Funds When Closed–End Funds Issue Equity

This study examines the reaction of non–issuing, same–sector funds when a closed–end fund announces a seasoned equity offering. The non–issuing, same–sector funds have a significant, negative announcement–day abnormal return. The abnormal returns for U.S. debt funds are less negative than U.S. equity and international debt funds. The abnormal returns for international debt funds are more negative than international equity funds. Announcement–day abnormal returns are directly related to the announcement–day abnormal return of the issuing fund and the premium/discount of the issuing fund. Announcement–day abnormal returns are inversely related to the premium/discount of the non–issuing, same–sector funds.