基于MS-VECM模型的我国货币政策非对称研究与启示

通过建立马尔可夫区制转移误差修正模型（MS-VECM）模拟我国货币政策对经济的非对称影响,以此分析我国货币政策的有效性。根据经济波动幅度,将我国经济划分为高波动和低波动两个区制状态,经济增长波动剧烈的区制下向均衡状态调整速度快于经济波动幅度较低区制下的调整,论证了我国货币政策对经济的影响在不同区制下存在非对称性。并用模型对我国经济状况进行了模拟预测,利用这种非线性的模型能够很好地预测货币与产出增长关系,表明现阶段我国经济运行状态是一低波动区制下的正常回落,目前不宜出台强扩张性的货币政策刺激经济增长。     

中国房价波动、股价波动对经济波动及居民消费影响的揭示

房价和股价波动如何影响宏观经济,又如何对居民消费产生影响?这是很多人都感兴趣却又让人迷惑的问题。本文运用相关性检验、方差分解和格兰杰因果检验对中国1998-2010年间中国房价、股价、居民消费和经济波动的特征及根源进行了较为全面的互动研究。结果发现,四者关系复杂,各变量均呈现出一定的顺周期特性且互相关联,房价和股价波动会早于经济波动和消费波动,这说明房地产和股票确实是宏观经济的晴雨表。但研究还发现,房价和股价波动对居民消费和经济波动冲击的影响力度不大,而居民消费与房价波动和经济波动之间均存在双向因果关系。而且,房价波动对经济波动的影响更为复杂,可通过消费和股价波动两个传导途径间接作用于经济波动。     

宏观经济景气波动对我国农产品价格的影响

我国农产品价格与宏观经济之间的联动性日益明显,宏观经济景气波动通过农产品产出、农产品需求和政府宏观调控等三种途径影响农产品价格,经济波动与农产品价格存在相互作用关系。在农产品产出传导路径上,经济波动刺激了农产品产出,影响了农产品价格的波动;在农产品需求传导路径上,经济增长促进了城镇居民收入的增加,购买力的加强,刺激了农产品价格的波动;在政府宏观调控传导路径上,经济增长使得国家广义货币供应量增加,货币的超发刺激了经济波动对农产品价格的冲击。     

随机货币冲击下的中国经济波动研究——基于RBC模型

中国居民消费存在明显的现金先行约束.在真实经济周期(RBC)模型中通过现金先行约束引入货币冲击符合中国经济运行特征.笔者在真实经济周期理论框架内分析了外生货币冲击对中国经济波动产生的影响.研究表明,货币发行冲击主要影响消费、投资和通胀率的波动,而其他主要经济变量(产出、就业等)的波幅基本不变.     

中国经济周期特征与财政政策效应——一个基于三部门RBC模型的实证分析

本文采用随机动态一般均衡方法,将政府支出作为外生随机冲击变量,构建中国三部门实际经济周期(RBC)模型,并对改革后的中国经济进行了实证检验,从而考察中国宏观经济波动的周期特征及财政政策的效应问题。研究发现,在包含政府部门的RBC模型中,技术冲击和政府支出冲击可以解释70%以上的中国经济波动特征,中国经济波动是技术因素、供给因素和需求因素综合影响的共同产物。此外,本文证实改革后政府支出对居民消费产生了一定的挤出效应。     

我国经济波动的特点及其成因简析

经济波动系指经济发展过程中高涨与低潮连续反复出现,即高涨→下降→低潮→回升→高涨的循环。我国自建国以来就一直存在经济周期波动。究竟我国经济波动的特点及其成因何在?回答这一问题,是我们制订经济战略和经济规划的重要前提。     

基于区制转移模型的国内外同业拆借利率联动性研究

本文应用Markov区制转移模型对上海银行间同业拆借利率(SHIBOR)和伦敦银行间同业拆借利率(LIBOR)的非线性联动关系进行研究.结果表明,可以将SHIBOR划分为三种区制,即“弱波动”、“中波动”和“强波动”;这三种区制的自身持续性均较好,区制与区制之间的转移具有非对称性;在“弱波动”和“强波动”区制中,LIBOR正向影响SHIBOR,而在“中波动”区制中则为负向影响;LIBOR在“强波动”区制中的影响最强,而在“中波动”区制中的影响最弱.因此,应进一步加强对国际金融形势阶段性的合理判断,加强金融政策的前瞻性和有效性.     

工业经济周期波动特性及影响因素研究

一、引言在我国社会主义经济发展过程中，经济增长的变化往往是始料不及的，它提醒人们必须重视经济波动问题的研究，我国经济体制正在经历从计划体制向市场体制过渡。通过对历史数据的分析发现，不论是在计划体制时期，还是在当今过渡时期，我国经济增长过程中始终存在着周期推波动现象。这是不以人们的意志为转移的客观存在。二、研究方法1．经济变量波动指标处理。对经济变量波动指标的处理方法有多种，如环比法、乘法公式、加法公式和频谱法等：在此采用环比法（又称直接法），其公式为：CIt＝Yi／Yi－1式中：CIt为第t年的周期性及不…     

国家区域开发战略对区域经济增长与波动的影响分析

文章从区域经济波动位势(平均增长速度)、区域经济波动位势差距和不同区域在国家经济运行中的地位变化三个角度考察了区域经济增长、波动与国家区域开发战略演变的关系。得出了“全国和各区域经济波动位势与国家区域开发战略的均衡倾向逆向相关”、“国家区域开发战略的均衡倾向和区域经济波动位势差距缩小之间存在滞后正向相关关系”等重要结论,并对相关结论给予了合理解释。     

工业经济周期性波动及其特性研究

一、引言在我国经济发展过程中，经济增长的变化往往是始料不及的，它提醒人们必须重视经济波动问题的研究。通过对历史数据的分析发现，不论是计划经济体制时期，还是社会主义市场经济体制时期，在我国经济增长过程中始终存在着周期性波动现象。二、研究方法1．变量波动指标的处理。对经济变量波动指标的处理方法本文采用球比法，即：式中：CIt为第t年的周期性及不规则变动相对数；Yt为第t年的经济变量数值；Yt-1为第t-1年的经济变量数值。2．对波动系数和相对波动系数。本文用绝对波动系数。和相对波动系数V。描述经济波动程度。式中：…     

House price dynamics: Evidence from Beijing

To study the house price dynamics in China, this paper extends the traditional life-cycle model by incorporating land supply, regime shifts and government regulation factors. The models are estimated with an error correction framework using quarterly data from 2000 to 2007 in Beijing. The conclusions are as follows. (1) There exits a stable co-integration relationship between house price and fundamentals; land supply and financial regimes are also important determinants of long-run equilibrium house prices. (2) Short-run dynamics depend on changes of fundamentals and the adjustment process of housing market. Land supply has a significant impact on house price fluctuations while demand factors such as user costs, income and residential mortgage loan have greater influences. The adjustment speed of real house prices to the long-run equilibrium has been reduced significantly since 2005 which means exogenous shocks can cause prolonged deviation of real house prices from the equilibrium level.     

Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric across bull and bear markets in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model

This paper examines asymmetries in the impact of monetary policy on the middle segment of the South African housing market from 1966:M2 to 2011:M12. We use Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) model in which parameters change according to the phase of the housing cycle. The results suggest that monetary policy is not neutral as house price growth decreases substantially with a contractionary monetary policy. We find that the impact of monetary policy is larger in bear regime than in bull regime; indicating the role of information asymmetry in reinforcing the financial constraint of economic agents. As expected, monetary policy reaction to a positive house price shock is found to be stronger in the bull regime. This suggests that the central bank reacts more in bull regime in order to prevent potential crisis related to the subsequent bust in house prices bubbles which are more prominent in bull markets. These results substantiate important asymmetries in the dynamics of house prices in relation to monetary policy, vindicating the advantages of generating regime dependent impulse response functions.     

China’s house price: Affected by economic fundamentals or real estate policy?

Many theory and empirical literature conclude that house price can reflect economic fundamentals in the long-term. However, by using China’s panel data of 35 main cities stretching from 1998 to 2007, we find that there is no stable relationship between house price and economic fundamentals. House price has deviated upward from the economic fundamentals since government started macro-control of the real estate market. We consider that the mechanism between the house price and economic fundamentals is distorted by China’s real estate policy, especially its land policy. Meanwhile the policy itself is an important factor in explaining the changes of China’s house price. Then we estimate the dynamic panel data model on house price and the variables which are controlled by real estate policy. The result shows: land supply has negative effects on house price; financial mortgages for real estate have positive effects on house price; and the area of housing sold and the area of vacant housing, which reflects the supply and demand of the housing market, has negative effects on house price. We also find some differences in house price influence factor between eastern and mid-western cities. Finally, we propose policy suggestions according to the empirical results.     

Agricultural Productivity Growth and Escape from the Malthusian Trap

Industrialization allowed the industrialized world of today to escape from the Malthusian regime characterized by low economic and population growth and to enter the post-Malthusian regime of high economic and population growth. To explain the transition between these regimes, we construct a growth model with two consumption goods (an agricultural and a manufacturing good), endogenous fertility, and endogenous technological progress in the manufacturing sector. We show that with an exogenous increase in the growth of agricultural productivity our model is able to replicate stylized facts of the British industrial revolution. The paper concludes by illustrating that our proposed model framework can be extended to include the demographic transition, i.e., a regime in which economic growth is associated with falling fertility.     

Conditional Markov regime switching model applied to economic modelling

In this paper we discuss the calibration issues of regime switching models built on mean-reverting and local volatility processes combined with two Markov regime switching processes. In fact, the volatility structure of these models depends on a first exogenous Markov chain whereas the drift structure depends on a conditional Markov chain with respect to the first one. The structure is also assumed to be Markovian and both structure and regime are unobserved. Regarding this construction, we extend the classical Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm to be applied to our regime switching model. We apply it to economic data (Euro/Dollar (USD) foreign exchange rate and Brent oil price) to show that such modelling clearly identifies both mean reverting and volatility regime switches. Moreover, it allows us to make economic interpretations of this regime classification as in some financial crises or some economic policies.     

HOUSING PRICE AND FUNDAMENTALS IN A TRANSITION ECONOMY: THE CASE OF THE BEIJING MARKET

This article develops a dynamic rational expectations general equilibrium framework that links house value to fundamental economic variables such as income growth, demographics, migration, and land supply. Our framework handles nonstationary dynamics as well as structural changes in fundamentals that are commonplace in transition economies. Applying the framework to Beijing, we find that the equilibrium house price and rent under reasonable parameterizations of the model are substantially lower than the data. We explore potential explanations for the discrepancies between the model and the data.     

Switching error-correction models of house prices in the United Kingdom

This paper develops error-correction models of real house prices in the UK in which the adjustment coefficient switches stochastically between a stable regime where disequilibrium correction takes place and an unstable regime where such a correction does not occur. The generating mechanism of the shifts is modelled as a Markov process with transition probabilities which are either time-invariant or depend on the extent to which the system is out of disequilibrium. Estimation of error-correction models for the UK reveals that the observed booms in real house prices are associated with an unstable regime. We also find that the probability that the system remains in an unstable regime decreases as deviations from equilibrium increase.     

Explaining House Prices in Australia: 1970–2003*

This paper aims to explain changes in real house prices in Australia from 1970 to 2003. We develop and estimate a long-run equilibrium model that shows the real long-run economic determinants of house prices and a short-run asymmetric error correction model to represent house price changes in the short run. We find that, in the long run, real house prices are determined significantly and positively by real disposable income and the consumer price index. They are also determined significantly and negatively by the unemployment rate, real mortgage rates, equity prices and the housing stock. Employing our short-run asymmetric error correction model, we find that there are significant lags in adjustment to equilibrium. When real house prices are rising at more than 2 per cent per annum, the housing market adjusts to equilibrium in approximately four quarters. When real house prices are static or falling, the adjustment process takes six quarters.     

中国房地产价格波动区域差异的实证分析

本文首先定性地比较了各地房价的波动,发现其波动具有明显的地区不平衡性。进一步,本文基于误差修正模型形式的paneldata模型讨论了房价区域波动的差异,并分析了造成各地区房价波动差异的原因,尤其是货币政策效应的区域差异。结论如下:无论是房价的长期趋势还是短期波动,信贷规模对东、西部地区影响都比较大,中部地区较小,表明政府实施的信贷政策对调控东、西部地区的房价是有效的。实际利率对各区域影响差异不大,且影响较小。人均GDP无论长期还是短期对中部地区房价影响都比较大,表明中部地区房地产市场的发展更多地依赖于该地区的经济发展状况。房价的预期变量在东部地区对房价的短期波动有较大影响。     

广佛两城房价变动的生态共生性研究——基于误差修正模型的实证分析

自改革开放以来,广佛两地强大的经济势能有力地推动了广东经济的发展。为了更好地发展两地的经济,两地政府适时地提出了＂广佛同城化＂战略。在经济一体化的研究中,对房价的研究一直是学术界的热点。本文通过建立误差修正模型来检验广佛两地房价指数之间的关系,并验证出两地的房价具有直接的相互影响作用,据此指出,要充分发挥＂同城化＂对佛山房地产市场的拉动作用,关键在于降低＂广佛人＂的生活成本。