酒企“暴利”支点

消费税实际负担较低、白酒企业存货或存在价值低估、白酒行业高端化效应明显及整个白酒行业处于快速发展通道,构成了中国白酒上市公司的四大"暴利"支点。战略支点:白酒高端化的扩张效应明显白酒高端化是白酒"暴利"的根本原因。具体来说,主要有以下两个层次的体现:一方面,高端白酒销售毛利率奇高。有高端酒的8家白酒上市公司(即一线和二线8家公司)中,近5年平均销售毛利率最高的是茅台酒达     

酒企营销预算思路

近年来搭乘中国经济快速发展的红利,白酒行业得到迅猛发展。2011年全国规模以上白酒企业1169家;白酒类前10位上市企业2011年实现销售收入3746.7亿元,同比增长40.3%,利润增长51.9%。但是,随着我国经济转型的加快,白酒行业同质化、行业集中度低、竞争惨烈化加剧,特别是行业发展中广告与促销费用膨胀风险加速累积。1995年的央视"标王"孔府宴酒,其品牌"孔府宴"在2002年转让给山东联大集团;1996年的央视     

白酒上市公司股权划转"输血"效应研究——基于事件研究法分析

在划转国有资本股权充实社保基金背景下,贵州茅台、五粮液等众多优质白酒企业相继向地方政府无偿划转股权,白酒上市公司"输血"地方财政现象愈发明显,创新应用"茅台化债"模式成为社会各界关注的焦点.基于此,本文选取已完成向地方财政"输血"的白酒上市公司,基于事件研究法分析白酒上市公司无偿划转股权事件对公司短期价值的影响,并分析企业划转股权前后现金股利政策的变化情况,研究白酒行业无偿划转股权的市场反应及"输血"效果.研究发现,资本市场对白酒上市公司积极履行社会责任做出了正向回应,白酒上市公司对地方财政"输血"的效果也较为明显.在此基础上,本文对上市公司股权划转提出了相关建议.     

我国白酒上市公司的动态效率及其差异性分析

运用DAE-Malmquist方法,以我国以白酒为主要产品的12家白酒上市公司为样本,测算了2004~2013年我国白酒行业的动态效率,在基础上分析了行业整体效率变迁过程和白酒企业的个体差异。结果表明,虽然十年中呈现明显的波动,我国白酒行业整体的生产率仍呈快速增长态势,12家白酒上市公司表现出相同的增长路径,其动力皆源于技术进步,但存在较大的个体差异。     

基于DEA-Malmquist方法的白酒行业上市公司效率分析

本文利用Malmquist指数法对我国白酒上市公司2010~2015年效率变动情况进行了分析,结果表明,中国白酒行业2012年开始走进低谷,经过转型调整,2015年有所回转,与国内白酒行业实际情况相符,同时也说明白酒行业转型方式是有效的。再利用数据包络(DEA)模型具体分析16家上市公司的综合效率和冗余量,发现营业成本投入过多是影响白酒企业效率的重要因素,并为白酒行业转型提出建议。     

中高端白酒的O2O模式

目前,我国白酒产业受大环境影响持续低迷,中小企业关停尤为明显。2002年到2012年,白酒业经历了一个"黄金十年"。未来,中国白酒的消费特别是中高端白酒的消费将会迎来较长的下行周期,即中国中高端白酒的冬天来了。但这个下行只是一个"寒冬"周期,而非大趋势。当下,中高端白酒行业的生存环境已经发生变化,面对外部因素多重施压,中高端白酒行业的营销模式转型升级势在必行。线上线下深度整合的O2O模式,去中介化、轻资产、好周转、低库存,效率决胜,为转型中的酒企带来了福音。本文将深入分析现阶段中高端白酒营销的优缺点,并根据网络营销的思路,提出O2O模式的可行性方案。     

中高端白酒的O2O模式

目前,我国白酒产业受大环境影响持续低迷,中小企业关停尤为明显。2002年到2012年,白酒业经历了一个"黄金十年"。未来,中国白酒的消费特别是中高端白酒的消费将会迎来较长的下行周期,即中国中高端白酒的冬天来了。但这个下行只是一个"寒冬"周期,而非大趋势。当下,中高端白酒行业的生存环境已经发生变化,面对外部因素多重施压,中高端白酒行业的营销模式转型升级势在必行。线上线下深度整合的O2O模式,去中介化、轻资产、好周转、低库存,效率决胜,为转型中的酒企带来了福音。本文将深入分析现阶段中高端白酒营销的优缺点,并根据网络营销的思路,提出O2O模式的可行性方案。     

白酒行业 醉过方知酒浓

前期市场对高端白酒年内提价存在较多质疑,使得白酒板块整体出现一些调整,茅台提价完成,五粮液等竞争对手必定跟随,由此将掀起一波春节白酒行情。     

损益

近日,白酒行业三季报陆续披露。截至10月29日,A股的13家白酒类上市公司总市值为3213亿元。这13家白酒上市公司在一年前的同样时间,总市值还高达6849亿元,在13家白酒上市公司当中,过去1年时间里有8家公司的市值缩水超过了一半,其中,市值缩水幅度最大的酒鬼酒,目前的市值只有48亿元,而去年同期公司的市值则是178亿元。     

白酒行业研究

截止2006年，全国共有1．8万家白酒生产企业，白酒行业竞争激烈，特别是中低档白酒品牌，竞争进入白热化。2006年，白酒产量397万吨，销售收入971亿元，利润总额100亿元，同比分别增长10．62％、31．08％和34．20％。近年来，白酒行业的利润总额增长率一直高于销售收入增长率。现阶段发展特点有四：第一，销量增长放缓，[第一段]     

The effect of payday lending restrictions on liquor sales

We exploit a change in lending laws to estimate the causal effect of restricting access to payday loans on liquor sales. Leveraging lender- and liquor store-level data, we find that the changes reduce sales, with the largest decreases at stores located nearest to payday lenders. By focusing on states with state-run liquor monopolies, we account for endogenous supply-side variables that are typically unobserved. Further analysis of consumer-level data indicates that the lending restrictions reduce alcohol expenditures without affecting total household spending. This is consistent with a distinct relationship between payday lending access and alcohol purchases, and suggests that present biased motivations underlie some loan use. The finding is significant because it shows that payday loan access is associated with unproductive borrowing, and directly links payday loan access to public health issues.     

The intoxicating brew of black liquor and son of black liquor: Deciphering the tax planning,research, policy and financial statement implications of tax credits via financial reporting income tax disclosures

In 2007, a change in the law regarding the alternative fuel mixture credit opened the door for paper mills to qualify a byproduct of paper manufacturing, black liquor, as a fuel eligible for the credit. The credit is a refundable credit of $0.50 per gallon. Paper mills can produce hundreds of millions of gallons of black liquor per year and qualified for the credit in 2009. In addition, in 2010 the IRS determined that these firms qualified for the cellulosic biofuels producer credit. Paper mill companies could amend their 2009 tax returns and swap their alternative fuel mixture credits for cellulosic biofuels producer credits worth $1.01 per gallon. The catch was that the alternative fuels mixture credit was refundable; the cellulosic biofuels producer credit was nonrefundable.     

现金股利政策影响因素实证分析——以中国酒业上市公司为例

股利政策作为现代公司理财的核心内容之一,不仅关系着公司股东的利益还关系着公司的稳定发展,因此合理的股利分配政策无论是对于股东的利益还是对于公司的稳定发展都有着重要的意义。而影响股利政策的因素也有很多,不同的因素对其影响也不同。文章选取了中国酒业上市公司为研究对象,根据2009、2010两年派发现金股利的情况和上市公司年报的财务数据资料,通过实证研究找出影响中国酒业上市公司现金股利政策的主要因素,并通过具体地分析,进一步为该行业股利政策的制定和规范提出具有合理性和可取性的建议,以提高企业的价值,实现股东财富最大化的目标。     

股权制衡与内部控制有效性——基于2008—2010年酿酒类上市公司的案例分析

基于中国特殊的公司治理环境,早前研究内部控制主要集中在概念框架、影响因素辨析以及公司治理失效案例的研究,然这些研究鲜有将股权制衡作为重要因素之一加以考虑。本文通过对三家酿酒类上市公司的案例分析,从控股(制衡)股东性质、股权制衡效果等角度剖析了提高中国上市公司内部控制有效性的机理路径。研究结果表明:在实际控制人为国有时,引入非国有制衡股东能达到较优的内部控制状态,而引入国有制衡股东仅微弱地优于无制衡股东的高度集中的内部控制状态,且两者并不明显。     

外国企业来我国上市的必要性及其法律准备

中外股市都存在着三大定理,即"会有越来越多的公司上市"、"会有越来越多的资金入市"和"牛市总比熊市长"。这给我们的启迪是:要使越来越多的公司上市以扩大供给,要使越来越多的资金入市以扩大需求。为使越来越多的公司上市以扩大供给,为了建立中国的国际金融中心,就应该允许外国企业来我国上市。未来牛市格局为外国企业来我国上市提供了经济上的可行性,为此,我国要做好一系列的法律准备,包括制定专门的规范性文件,规定外国企业境内首次公开发行并上市的各种条件和程序;对外国企业在我国境内发行证券实行注册制;完善保护投资者的法律制度等。     

Openness, profit opportunities and foreign banking

Using new data from the World Bank and OCC surveys, we show correlations across a wide range of countries between foreign banking and domestic economic, financial and bank regulatory conditions. Foreign banking tended to be more prevalent in countries that were more open to foreign ownership of their banks, more open to banks’ engaging in a wider range of financial activities and more open to international trade. Restrictions on foreign ownership of domestic banks that were in place in the late 1970s reduced the current extent of foreign banking. Foreign banking was negatively correlated with current restrictions on banks’ securities, insurance and real estate activities. Countries that had more international trade tended to have more foreign banking. Foreign banking was more pervasive in countries where banking was more profitable and where the domestically-owned banking sector was smaller relative to GDP.     

Investment cycles and startup innovation

We find that venture capital-backed startups receiving their initial investment in hot markets are more likely to go bankrupt, but conditional on going public, are valued higher on the day of their initial public offering, have more patents, and have more citations to their patents. Our results suggest that VCs invest in riskier and more innovative startups in hot markets (rather than just worse firms). This is particularly true for the most experienced VCs. Furthermore, our results suggest that increased capital in hot times plays a causal role in shifting investments to more novel startups by lowering the cost of experimentation for early stage investors and allowing them to make riskier, more novel, investments.     

The Size and Structure of the World Mutual Fund Industry

This paper analyses the mutual fund industry for 20 countries using a new database of more than 50,000 mutual funds. The results suggest that more developed industries provide more benefits to investors as they diversify more internationally, charge lower annual charges and present more product sophistication. The results also have important policy implications by emphasising the role of competition and contestability in industry development. Fewer barriers to entry are positively associated with a larger industry, and concomitantly with more efficiency in terms of returns and fees.     

TARP’s deadbeat banks

This paper tests whether poorly capitalized banks with troubled loan books are more likely to miss their bailout dividends. Privately held banks with weaker core capital ratios, more charged off loans, more allowances for loan losses, and more non-performing loans are more likely to miss their Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) dividends. Banks that issue non-cumulative preferred stock are also more likely to be TARP deadbeats. In addition, banks that missed a bailout dividend in the prior quarter are significantly more likely to miss the next bailout dividend.     

Corporate social responsibility,country-level predispositions,and the consequences of choosing a level of disclosure

We study the different levels of corporate social responsibility (CSR) disclosures of the largest European firms. We find that firms are more predisposed to disclose more CSR information in countries with better investor protection, higher levels of democracy, more effective government services, higher quality regulations, more press freedom, and a lower commitment to environmental policies. Our analysis of the association of different levels of CSR disclosure with share prices indicates that a high level of CSR disclosure is associated with higher share prices, whereas a low level of CSR disclosure in sensitive industries is associated with lower share prices (compared to no disclosure). These results are also present when we analyse changes in CSR disclosure and are robust to the inclusion of an accounting quality measure in our model. The overall effect of the association of higher levels of CSR disclosure with higher share prices is stronger in countries with more democracy, more government effectiveness, better regulatory quality, and more press freedom. Therefore, market participants find CSR disclosures more informative in countries where investors are in a better position to voice their concerns and where there is better regulation and more effective government implementation of regulations.