Usefulness of fair values for predicting banks’ future earnings: evidence from other comprehensive income and its components

This paper examines whether fair value adjustments included in other comprehensive income (OCI) predict future bank performance. It also examines whether the reliability of these estimates affects their predictive value. Using a sample of bank holding companies, we find that fair value adjustments included in OCI can predict earnings both 1 and 2 years ahead. However, not all fair value-related unrealized gains and losses included in OCI have similar implications. While net unrealized gains and losses on available-for-sale securities are positively associated with future earnings, net unrealized gains and losses on derivative contracts classified as cash flow hedges are negatively associated with future earnings. We also find that reliable measurement of fair values enhances predictive value. Finally, we show that fair value adjustments recorded in OCI during the 2007–2009 financial crisis predicted future profitability, contradicting criticism that fair value accounting forced banks to record excessive downward adjustments.     

The influence of accounting enforcement on earnings quality of banks: Implications of bank regulation and the global financial crisis

We study the effects of country-level accounting enforcement on earnings quality of banks and whether bank regulation substitutes or complements the effect of accounting enforcement on bank earnings quality. We also examine whether the influence of accounting enforcement on bank earnings quality changed after the global financial crisis. Using a sample of listed banks from 40 countries between 2001 and 2014, and abnormal loan loss provisions (ALLP) as our main proxy for earnings quality, we document a consistent and strong association between accounting enforcement and bank earnings quality. More specifically, an increase in accounting enforcement decreases the level of ALLP and decreases the propensity to manage earnings to avoid losses. Furthermore, we provide empirical evidence that bank regulation complements the effect of accounting enforcement on bank earnings quality. Finally, unlike in the pre-crisis period, we find a positive association between accounting enforcement and income-decreasing ALLP in the post-crisis period, which indicates that stronger accounting enforcement is associated with more conservative earnings and higher loan loss reserves. Overall, our results indicate that accounting enforcement reduces opportunistic earnings management.     

The impact of the new Accounting Standards for Business Enterprises (ASBE) on financial results of mainland Chinese listed companies

Effective 1st January 2007, 38 new Accounting Standards for Business Enterprises (ASBE) had become applicable to listed companies in mainland China. Research based on these latest standards will help us understand the current accounting harmonisation process in China. Previous studies, though rather scarce, had compared financial statements of companies simultaneously being listed on the mainland and Hong Kong. However, the very recent impact of the new ASBE has not been taken into account. Therefore, the present study focuses on domestic Chinese companies after implementation of the new ASBE. The financial figures of each item reported under the old Chinese Accounting Rules and Regulations and the new ASBE were collected in pairs and were analysed. Except for the test results on total assets and shareholders' equity, the other results revealed no significant differences between the paired figures of net assets per share, operating revenue, profit before tax, net profit, net profit after extraordinary gains and losses, basic earnings per share, net cash flow from operating activities and the per share value.     

Discretionary accounting choices: the case of IAS 19 pension accounting

Based on a sample of 3207 firm-year observations for the years 2005–2013, we investigate how stock-listed companies in France, Germany and the UK use two discretionary choices in their accounting for defined benefit pension plans under International Accounting Standard (IAS) 19 Employee Benefits. We first analyse companies’ decision whether to voluntarily early adopt the equity method of accounting for actuarial gains and losses. Second, we analyse companies’ choice to present pension interest cost and expected return on plan assets, or, in 2013, net pension interest cost, in operating or financial income. Our findings provide evidence that companies’ decisions to early adopt the equity method in 2005, the first year this accounting choice was available, were motivated by short-term effects on equity. Our analyses also indicate that the choice regarding where to present interest cost and expected return on plan assets in the income statement is associated with the resulting effect on Earnings before Interest and Tax. Finally, we document country-specific differences in the use of the discretion provided under IAS 19, suggesting that discretionary pension accounting choices may impede comparability.     

Interaction between securitization gains and abnormal loan loss provisions: Credit risk retention and fair value accounting

This study investigates whether managers use asset securitization gains to substitute loan loss provision (LLP) management for earnings management, and, if so, whether the percentage of credit risk retained affects such a relationship. The literature provides evidence that managers have used securitization transactions to boost earnings. Using 2001?2014 data for a sample of bank holding companies, I find that managers use securitization gains and LLPs as partial substitutes and that earnings management from securitization gains grows at an increasing rate to substitute income increasing LLP management as the level of risk retention increases. These findings are consistent with the argument that the higher the level of risk retention, the greater the potential impact on achieving earnings targets, given banks’ exercise of discretion over securitization gains through estimation of fair value of retained interest. In addition, I document that the substitution effect between the two tools is non‐existent in the post‐SFAS 166/167 period. Taken together, the findings have timely implications for accounting standards by informing the effect of risk retention that I measure through earnings management techniques. Moreover, my findings provide additional support for improved disclosures on assets‐backed securities.     

Industry contagion effects of internal control material weakness disclosures

This study examines whether there is an industry contagion effect for negative market reactions to internal control material weakness (ICMW) disclosures. From a sample of companies experiencing market share price declines to disclosures of ICMW over the years 2005–2014, results indicate that peer industry companies also experience market share price declines. We also find that the decline in share prices is related to accounting quality in that peer industry companies with higher accrual, relative to cash flow, components of earnings have larger negative market reaction compared to companies with lower accrual components of earnings. Our study contributes to the literature streams examining accounting information transfer and internal control quality.Data availability: Data are publicly available from sources identified in the paper.     

Using Available-for-sale Securities to Smooth Earnings: Evidence from China

Utilizing a large sample of non-financial public firms in China from 2009 to 2016, we find robust evidence that non-financial firms smooth their earnings through realized gains and losses on available-for-sale (AFS) securities. This effect is more pronounced for firms with weaker internal and external corporate governance. Firms with an incentive to manipulate up their earnings are also less likely to smooth earnings through AFS securities. Moreover, firms with more accrual earnings management or real earnings management tend to smooth earnings to a greater extent through AFS securities. Firms smooth earnings only when their net income is positive or when net income is negative and the gains from AFS securities are large enough to offset negative earnings. We do not find supporting evidence for engaging in big bath earnings management through the realization of losses on AFS securities. These findings suggest that gains and losses on AFS securities allow non-financial firms to actively smooth their earnings. Last, the accounting standards amendments in 2017 that essentially disable earnings smoothing through AFS securities increase price efficiency.     

Bank earnings and regulatory capital management using available for sale securities

Based on a large sample of publicly listed and non-listed US commercial banks from 1996 to 2011, we find robust evidence consistent with banks using realized available for sale (AFS) securities gains and losses to smooth earnings and increase low regulatory capital. We also find that (i) banks with positive earnings smooth earnings, and banks with negative earnings generally take big baths; (ii) regulatory capital constrains big baths; (iii) banks with more negative earnings and more unrealized beginning-of-quarter losses (gains) take big baths (smooth earnings); and (iv) banks with low regulatory capital and more unrealized gains realize more gains. Also, banks with negative earnings take big baths (avoid or reduce the earnings loss) if their unrealized gains are insufficient (sufficient) to offset the negative earnings. Our inferences apply to listed and non-listed banks, which indicates that the earnings management incentives do not derive solely from public capital markets. Our findings reveal that the accounting for AFS securities gains and losses enables banks to manage regulatory capital and earnings in a variety of ways.     

中国亏损上市公司盈余管理手段有效性研究

本文选取我国沪深A股亏损上市公司为研究样本,对2010年首次亏损而在2011年扭亏的上市公司是否会在扭亏年度内进行盈余管理,以及运用何种手段进行盈余管理及并对其有效性进行分析.运用模型以及多元线性回归方法进行实证研究发现：首次亏损上市公司财务报表中的营业外收支、资产减值准备、营业成本、投资收益及管理费用等更容易受到企业的操控.因此建议,为提高各方对会计信息的识别能力,企业的股东、债权人和监管机构等利益相关者要警惕此类指标的异常变动.     

Editorial

IAS 19: Employee Benefits (2004) enables a choice between three accounting methods of recognising actuarial gains and losses: profit or loss, equity and corridor methods. The objective of this paper is to identify the accounting method of actuarial gains and losses followed by companies after the mandatory adoption of International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) standards. Information was collected about that accounting method adopted by 523 European companies, in the first year of mandatory IASB standards adoption. It was found that most of European companies included in the sample adopted the corridor method or the equity recognition method. The results also show that the equity recognition method is more used in the United Kingdom (UK) and Ireland and the corridor method is more used by financial companies.     

The effect of non-recurring items on analysts’ earnings forecasts

This article discusses the effects of non-recurring profits and losses on statement users’ decision-making processes from the perspective of securities analysts. We examine the relationship between analysts’ forecast revisions and firms’ non-recurring earnings. We find that 1) non-recurring gains and losses can influence analysts’ earnings forecast revision; 2) compared with non-recurring items resulting from policy changes, analysts are more concerned about those attributed to changes in business scope; 3) if listed companies use non-recurring items to turn losses into gains during earnings management, it will weaken the effects of non-recurring items on analysts’ earnings forecast revision. The results suggest that non-recurring items that result from changes in business scope incorporate information that users need for the future operation of the business. This article verifies the information relevance of non-recurring items and provides evidence for the necessity of non-recurring item disclosure.     

Nonrecurring Accounting Transactions and Stock Option Grants

Abstract:  We examine the effect of nonrecurring accounting transactions on stock option grants for a sample of US companies. After controlling for both the economic and corporate governance-related determinants of option grants, we find that the aggregate value of stock option grants is more positively related to nonrecurring gains than to nonrecurring losses. We also examine whether the asymmetric treatment of nonrecurring gains and losses arises because (1) information contained in the nonrecurring transactions is related to firms' long-term prospects, (2) weak corporate governance fails to curb more favorable executive pay arrangements, (3) executives possess superior bargaining power in the labor marketplace, and (4) firms have significant growth opportunities. While we find no support for the first explanation and some support for the third, we find more consistent support for the growth explanation and two factors related to the corporate governance explanation: director-executive duality and the frequency of board meetings.     

Cash holdings and earnings quality: evidence from the Main and Alternative UK markets

In this paper we investigate the importance of earnings quality as a determinant of cash holdings by companies, exploring among other factors the nature of earnings (positive or negative) and the level of financial disclosure, proxied by the market where firms are listed (Main or AIM-Alternative Investment Markets in the United Kingdom). Based on a sample covering the period of 1998–2015, we provide evidence that as earnings quality decreases, firms tend to hold more cash except when firms are facing losses in both Main and AIM markets. In addition, we document that information conveyed by earnings quality is a more important determinant of cash reserve levels for Main Market than for AIM firms (where the level of financial disclosure and oversight is lower). Overall, our evidence suggests that cash balances are positively influenced by the presence of greater information asymmetries arising from poor earnings quality but also from the existence of lower levels of regulatory oversight and the occurrence of losses, both of which reduce the importance of earnings quality as a determinant of cash levels. Our results also imply that companies with higher levels of earnings opaqueness seem to benefit from having higher cash holdings so as to avoid dependence from costly external funding.     

The Behaviour of Earnings,Accruals and Impairment Losses of Failed New Zealand Finance Companies

This study examines the behaviour of earnings, accruals and impairment losses of failed finance companies in New Zealand. It draws on conservatism in the development of research hypotheses about accounting variables that are likely to contain clues to future failures of finance companies. The hypotheses are tested by examining the trend of earnings after tax (EAT), accruals and impairment losses of 32 finance companies that failed from 2006 to 2011. Data were collected from the annual reports of the sampled companies and the first reports of receivers of failed companies. The study finds that EAT and accruals declined, and impairment losses increased significantly in the last two financial statements prior to failure, when compared with other years. This suggests that changes in EAT, accruals and impairment losses may provide indications of impending failure.     

Why do managers avoid EPS dilution? Evidence from debt–equity choice

Survey evidence reveals that managers prefer to avoid dilution of earnings per share (EPS), though financial theory suggests it is irrelevant in firm valuation. We explore contracting and behavioral explanations for this apparent paradox using a large sample of debt–equity issuers. We first provide evidence that firms with greater agency conflicts between managers and shareholders are more likely to use EPS as a performance measure in bonus contracts. After controlling for possible endogeneity related to compensation contract design, we find that managers are more likely to avoid earnings dilution when their bonus compensation explicitly depends upon EPS performance. This effect is increasing in the magnitude of bonus compensation for this subset of firms; we document no such associations for the firms that do not use EPS in setting bonus pay. Additional tests of firms’ speed of adjustment to target leverage ratios and firms’ debt conservatism levels indicate that explicitly rewarding executives on EPS performance helps to resolve underleveraging problems. We also find that clientele effects are associated with managers’ aversion to earnings dilution. Our findings provide a deeper understanding of the factors that underlie the use of accounting performance in compensation contracts and new evidence on the implications of the contracting role of accounting in firm decision-making.     

CAP Forum on Enron: Former Audit Firm Personnel as CFOs: Effect on Earnings Management*

Corporate hiring of former audit personnel to fill key financial positions is a practice that has attracted attention from the media, the accounting profession, and regulators. The concern is that the former external auditor who now holds a key position with the client may be able to circumvent the audit or exert pressure on the audit team and adversely influence audit quality. We compare a sample of 172 test companies that appointed to the position of chief financial officer (CFO) personnel who are former employees of the companies' auditors, with a control sample of companies that appointed new CFOs who were not affiliated with their auditors. We investigate whether the level of discretionary accruals is greater for the test sample compared with the control sample during the two years following appointment of the CFO. Both univariate and multivariate results for signed discretionary accruals suggest some support for the hypothesis that firms with affiliated CFOs are associated with greater earnings management than firms with unaffiliated CFOs. Furthermore, the results for signed discretionary accruals suggest that the association is stronger for nonpartners who moved from the audit firm to the client with little or no time gap. On average, the results for absolute discretionary accruals do not suggest differences in earnings management between affiliated and unaffiliated CFOs. However, they do indicate some earnings management relative to unaffiliated CFOs by CFOs who had little or no time gap between leaving the audit firm and joining the client firm, although at a weaker level of significance.     

Accounting Quality in Private Firms During the Transition Towards International Standards

We study the historical development of Slovenian Accounting Standards (SAS) and their association with accounting quality (AQ). We focus on private firms where the financial reporting process is characterised by low demand for high-quality reporting. We investigate three distinct editions of SAS since 1994 and test how their development towards international standards is related to AQ. Aggregate earnings management measures indicate that the use of accounting discretion decreases with less earnings smoothing over time. The main features of AQ have been consistent throughout historical development. Asymmetric timeliness of earnings, the ability of earnings to predict future cash flows, and the ability of accruals to mitigate mismatching are all present throughout. We also document typical departures from properties of high AQ. For example, accruals do not (always) facilitate timely recognition of losses. However, these can be attributed to the overwhelming influence of reporting incentives (e.g. taxation, debt, size) rather than to the (lower) quality of accounting standards.     

Accounting Losses and Earnings Response Coefficients: The Impact of Leverage and Growth Opportunities

This paper investigates how accounting losses affect the relationship between accounting earnings and stock returns, i.e. earnings response coefficients (ERCs), in different leverage and growth categories. In a sample of NYSE firms between 1975 and 1990, the exclusion of losses improves the ERCs considerably. While the impact of losses on ERCs is highest in the subgroup including high growth opportunity firms, the exclusion of losses does not improve ERCs as significantly among firms with low growth opportunities. The results further support the hypothesis that the impact of losses on ERCs is different in different financial leverage subgroups. The measured increase in ERCs is most significant among the least levered firms. The observation that the impact of losses on ERCs is related to growth opportunities and financial leverage is clearly observable also in different size categories. The effects of growth opportunities and financial leverage are also incrementally important with respect to each other. In general, the results indicate that the impact of growth opportunities and financial leverage on ERCs is clearly observable especially when losses and profits are analyzed separately.     

The Effects of Taxes,Agency Costs and Information Asymmetry on Earnings Management: A Comparison of Public and Private Firms

The realization of securities gains and losses to manage earnings in publicly-traded bank holding companies has been documented in a large number of studies, but very little is known about why managers engage in this behavior. Two possible explanations for earnings management put forth by Warfield, Wild, and Wild (1995) are that managers engage in this behavior either to circumvent accounting-based contracts designed to mitigate agency problems, or to reduce information asymmetry.We compare public and private banks' realizations of securities gains and losses to determine how their earnings management differs. We find that public banks consistently engage in more earnings management than private banks, and that the portion of their current period securities gains and losses attributable to earnings management is more positively associated with next period's earnings before securities gains and losses. These findings are consistent with earnings management occurring due to greater information asymmetry in public firms, and suggest that earnings management may not necessarily lead to the erosion in the quality of earnings suggested by Levitt (1998).     

Usefulness of comprehensive income reporting in Canada

In January 2005 the Canadian Accounting Standards Board (AcSB) issued three new accounting standards that require Canadian firms to mark-to-market certain financial assets and liabilities and recognize the holding gains and losses related to these items as other comprehensive income or as part of net income. The Board’s objectives for issuing the new standards are (i) to harmonize Canadian GAAP with US and International GAAP, (ii) to enhance the transparency and usefulness of financial statements, and (iii) to keep pace with changes in accounting standards in other countries that are moving towards fair value accounting. This paper investigates empirically whether requiring Canadian companies to report comprehensive income and its components provides the securities market with incremental value-relevant information over the traditional historical-cost earnings approach.Previous empirical studies provide mixed evidence on the value relevance of other comprehensive income and its components. This mixed evidence may be attributed partially to the use of as if methodology to construct an ex-ante measure of other comprehensive income prior to the implementation of SFAS 130, which introduces measurement error. In contrast, this study uses actual data on other comprehensive income for a sample of Canadian firms cross-listed in the US in the period 1998–2003. We find evidence that available-for-sale and cash flow hedges components are significantly associated with price and market returns. We also find that aggregate comprehensive income is more strongly associated (in terms of explanatory power) with both stock price and returns compared to net income. However, we find that net income is a better predictor of future net income relative to comprehensive income. Our findings suggest that mandating all Canadian firms to adopt the new accounting standards is expected to enhance the usefulness of financial statements. Our findings, therefore, should be of interest to Canadian accounting policy makers as they provide ex-ante evidence on the potential usefulness of mandating firms to report comprehensive income and the components of other comprehensive income in their financial statements.