汇率制度是否影响失业率?——基于全球经济体的面板数据之经验分析

论文使用172个经济体在1991-2010年间的面板数据,研究了汇率制度对于失业率的影响。研究发现,在其他条件保持不变时,相对于中间汇率制而言,在发达经济体中,浮动汇率制会降低失业率,而钉住汇率制则会提高失业率;在新兴市场经济体中,浮动汇率制会提高失业率,而钉住汇率制则会降低失业率;在不包括新兴市场外的发展中经济体中,中间汇率制下的失业率最低,而钉住汇率制下的失业率最高。     

Leading Indicators of Currency Crises: Are They the Same in Different Exchange Rate Regimes?

We investigate whether leading indicators of currency crises differ across exchange rate regimes using data for 88 countries in the period 1981–2010. Our estimates suggest that in fixed exchange rate regimes external indicators, such as deviations of the real exchange rate from trend and the growth of international reserves, have the strongest predictive power. In contrast, in floating exchange rate regimes monetary policy and credibility indicators, such as domestic credit growth and inflation, are the best leading indicators of currency crises. Both credibility and external economic indicators have predictive power in intermediate exchange rate regimes.     

The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes: Evidence from Hong Kong and Taiwan

This paper investigates whether the macroeconomic performance of a small- open economy depends on the choice of exchange rate regimes. Hong Kong and Taiwan - two economies with many similar macroeconomic characteristics, but different in their choices of exchange rate regimes - provide a good setting to study the relation between the choice of exchange rate regime and macro-economic performance. We examine the basic facts of growth and inflation and the coefficients' stability of their vector autoregression (VAR), as well as cyclical characters of other aggregate variables in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Our empiric finding indicates that macroeconomic performance is not systematically related to exchange rate regimes.     

Fear of Floating Needn't Imply Fixed Rates: An OCA Approach to the Operation of Stable Intermediate Currency Regimes

The criteria of the theory of optimum currency areas suggest that many countries are not good candidates for either of the poles of genuinely fixed exchange rates or freely floating exchange rates. Thus, many countries should have an interest in intermediate exchange rate regimes. However, in a world of substantial capital mobility most forms of intermediate exchange rate regimes have proven to be highly crisis prone. This essay argues that the unholy trinity paradigm doesn't imply that intermediate exchange rate regimes are inherently unstable, but rather that exchange rate and monetary policies need to be jointly determined. The difficulties of maintaining such consistency are as much political as economic since temporarily pegged or managed rates create a time inconsistency problem. It is argued that OCA theory provides the framework for determining the appropriate weights and limits on the amount of sterilized intervention to maintain the consistency between exchange rate and monetary policies necessary to avoid currency crises. The paper also considers a number of the issues involved in integrating this approach with the literature on open economy aspects of inflation targeting.     

Exchange Rate Regimes in the Asian-Pacific Region

This survey is designed to complemenl Treadgold's on Macroeconomic Manugement (APEL March 1990) by reviewing the literature on exchange rate regimes with reference to the Asian-Pacific region. After a brief typology of exchange rate regimes, the article discusses the choice between currency system, the relationship between choice of regime and policy objectives, constraints on choice of regimes, the distinction between 'traded' and 'non-traded' goods, the 'booming' export sector case and finally the relevance of regulatory distortions and the related question of transition from one regime to amiher.     

International monetary transmission in East Asia: Floaters,non-floaters,and capital controls

This paper analyzes the impacts of the United States (US) monetary shocks on East Asian countries using structural vector-autoregression (VAR) model. We find that the impacts of the US monetary shocks on East Asian domestic interest rates and exchange rates contradict conventional wisdom. The conventional exchange rate channel is unlikely to play much role in the transmission of the US monetary policy shocks to floaters in East Asian countries, excluding Japan. In these countries, the domestic interest rates respond strongly to the US interest rate changes, by giving up monetary autonomy, probably because of fear of floating. However, the domestic interest rate does not respond much in countries with fixed exchange rate regimes and capital account restrictions, such as China and Malaysia. This may suggest that the countries with fixed exchange rate regimes enjoy a higher degree of monetary autonomy, most likely with the help of capital account restrictions.     

Exchange rate regimes and real exchange rate volatility: Does inflation targeting help or hurt?

This paper revisits the comparison of the effects of inflation targeters versus hard fixers and intermediate exchange rate regimes. In particular, we are interested in exploring the impact of inflation targeting (IT) on real effective exchange rate (REER) volatility for a panel of 62 developing countries over the period 2006–2012. We also analyze the impact of IT regimes on REER in terms of its two component parts, i.e. relative tradable prices across countries as well as sectoral prices of tradables and nontradables within countries. The paper accounts for self-selection concerns regarding policy adoption and examines the effects of commodity exports and foreign exchange intervention. Notably, IT regimes seem to have experienced greater REER volatility, largely driven by external prices in developed countries. For developing countries, IT regimes show no difference in REER volatility, though there is some evidence that they have lower volatility in internal prices.     

货币锚的选择与退出:对最优货币规则的再考察

百年来,无论是传统的固定与浮动之争,还是现代的中间与两极之争都无法解决什么才是最好的汇率制度这一难题。基于此,本文从什么才是最优的货币规则这一新的视角对基本的货币问题进行探讨,并得到一系列结论:(1)货币不可无锚,而锚的选择取决于网络外部性;(2)不同的下锚规则本质上决定了货币政策工具和政策目标的界定,原则上,一个国家、货币区甚至全球货币体系可选择黄金、单一或一篮子货币、一篮子商品、货币供给量作为固定的货币锚;(3)相对较高的外汇储备和适度的资本管制为一国货币锚有序退出提供了条件。     

汇率制度选择和宏观经济绩效——基于面板数据的分析:1990～2005

学界曾普遍达成共识,对熨平资本市场波动而言,固定汇率制度表现更优;而浮动汇率制度更有利于商品市场层面的波动调整。然而在亚洲、俄罗斯、巴西及阿根廷经历金融危机后,对不同汇率制度属性的研究重新兴起。伴随着30多年的对外开放,我国汇率制度实质上经历了4个阶段的演变。基于国内外学者的相关研究,作者分别应用面板数据分析和Probit模型对各种汇率制度的表现和我国政府的汇率选择行为展开实证研究。我们认为,对人民币汇率制度选择的研究首先应建立在深入考察中国宏观经济现实的基础之上,中国的汇率制度改革应与宏观经济运行的基本面相契合。     

新兴市场经济国家通货膨胀与汇率制度选择

本文利用23个新兴市场经济国家20年间的面板数据,对汇率制度和通货膨胀的关系进行实证研究,对我国汇率改革实践进行了考察。从我国的实际情况看,汇率波动的幅度越大则通胀率均值越大,2005年实行管理浮动以来我国通胀率处于明显的上升趋势。我国应该限制人民币升值幅度,发挥汇率的"名义驻锚"的作用,以此遏制通胀的进一步发展。     

Managing in the Middle: Characterizing Singapore's Exchange Rate Policy*

It is by now common knowledge that there can be a significant divergence in the de facto versus de jure exchange rate regimes operated by economies. Although much of the recent published literature in Asia has focused on the crisis-hit economies, Korea and Thailand in particular, scant attention has been paid to Singapore, which officially targets its nominal effective exchange rate (around a band). The present paper examines the degree of exchange rate intervention for Singapore using various methods of assessing de facto exchange rate regimes. In the main, we show that although the Singapore dollar is primarily influenced by the US dollar, in keeping with its de jure classification of a basket pegged regime, other major currencies, such as the yen and the euro, also impact the Singapore dollar. There is also evidence to indicate that Singapore uses the nominal effective exchange rate strategically as a policy instrument to satisfy domestic inflation objectives.     

人民币汇率对进出口贸易的影响研究——基于汇改前后的比较分析

本文运用Johansen协整方法对不同汇率制度环境下人民币汇率对我国进出口贸易的影响效应进行了比较分析,发现汇改前,无论是进口额还是出口额,均与人民币汇率不存在长期均衡关系,而汇改后的出口额却与人民币汇率存在显著的长期协整关系,且人民币汇率升值对出口的抑制效应非常显著。这意味着在研究人民币汇率对进出口贸易的影响效应时尤其不能忽略不同汇率制度环境的影响,所反映的政策含义表明政府当局在制定汇率制度时要保持审慎的态度,以避免人民币升值过快引起对我国出口的抑制效应。     

The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime： The Relevance of International Experience to China＇s Decision

The Chinese exchange rate has been the focus of discussion for many months, with both internal and external considerations seemingly pointing to the desirability of a currency revaluation. This paper draws from the lessons of international experience with exchangerate regimes in the period since Worm War Two. It lays out the conditions necessary to validate a fixed exchange rate and some intermediate regimes that might work when a fixed rate is inappropriate. It then discusses what the analysis implies for contemporary China.     

Exchange Rate Disconnect in a Standard Open-Economy Macro Model

This paper demonstrates that the well-documented exchange rate disconnect can be explained within traditional exchange rate models. It is shown that even if the underlying fundamentals are invariant across exchange rate regimes, equilibrium real exchange rates are more volatile under flexible nominal exchange rates than under fixed rates. In particular, fixed rates reduce the requisite adjustments of the real exchange rate in response to both nominal and real shocks relative to a floating-rate scenario.     

从变迁历史看人民币汇率制度改革新思路

本文介绍了人民币汇率制度的变迁历程,主要包括改革开放前的起步阶段、可调整固定汇率钉住制、钉住货币篮子和改革开放后的汇率双轨制及两种不同的有管理的浮动汇率制度。通过对历史上汇率制度的探讨和我国现状的分析,笔者认为我国汇率制度的改革应沿着"有管理的浮动汇率制—爬行钉住制—浮动汇率制"这条道路稳步发展,随着人民币汇率波动的逐步加大,人民币汇率制度最终过渡到浮动汇率制度。     

Why clashes between internal and external stability goals end in currency crises, 1797–1994

We argue that recent currency crises reflect clashes between fundamentals and pegged exchange rates, just as did crises in the past. We reject the view that crises reflect self-fulfilling prophecies that are not closely related to measured fundamentals. Doubts about the timing of a market attack on a currency are less important than the fact that it is bound to happen if a government's policies are inconsistent with pegged exchange rates. We base these conclusions on a review of currency crises in the historical record under metallic monetary regimes and of crises post-World War II under Bretton Woods, and since, in European and Latin American pegged exchange rate regimes.     

汇率制度的选择:国际经验与中国决策的相关性(英文)

I. IntroductionWhether a country should choose a fixed or flexible exchange rate, or some intermediateregime, is one of the oldest policy questions in economics. It is also one of the mostimportant. Many countries have encountered crises that interrupted their growth becausethey made a bad choice. Others have never got growth going because of misguideddecisions. Obviously this is not to say that exchange rate policy is the only thing thatmatters, but it is to claim that a flawed exchange rate…     

The Swedish real exchange rate under different currency regimes

This paper presents evidence on the behaviour of the Swedish real exchange rate relative to Germany under different currency regimes during the period 1973:1–2001:4. The results suggest that the real exchange rate is cointegrated with Swedish and German productivity, which is consistent with Balassa (1964) and Samuelson (1964). In the short run, the exchange rate regime has mattered for the dynamics of the real exchange rate. Deviations from long-run equilibrium have been adjusted more quickly when the nominal exchange rate has been allowed to float freely. JEL no. C22, E31, F41     

The optimal exchange rate regime for a small country

This paper examines the welfare comparisons between a freely floating, a managed floating, and a pegged exchange rate regime. We compare the expected loss under these regimes by modifying and generalizing Hamada’s (2002) model to accommodate intervention policy. We consider the de jure and de facto classifications, where the former is defined by the officially stated intentions of the monetary authorities, while the latter is based on the actually observed behavior of the nominal exchange rate. We first examine the exchange rate regimes from the central bank’s policy stance and the actual exchange rate policy. Next we assume that the regime which the private sector perceives according to an official announcement may be different from the one adopted actually by the central bank. We examine nine combinations of the de jure and de facto regimes. We interpret that, whenever they are different, there is informational friction between the central bank and the private sector. We show that the welfare level of a small country under freely floating is no less than that under other regimes, and that with some restrictive conditions, the de facto pegged or de facto managed floating is close to freely floating. This partly explains “Fear of floating” and “Fear of pegging”.     

新兴市场的汇率制度选择、金融约束与经济增长

本文通过构造一个基于金融环境约束的开放经济体跨期模型,对不同汇率制度面临不同名义冲击下的经济绩效进行了比较,结果发现由于浮动汇率对于宏观经济的冲击吸收能力依赖于该国金融环境的发展条件,因此新兴市场的汇率制度退出和转轨决策应当着眼于克服金融约束的关键性门槛.本文的跨国经验分析也进一步证实了模型的结论.