对中国国际贸易与FDI相互关系的重新检验

This paper studies the long-term relationship between FDI and imports and exports through evidence from China by using cointegration technology, and the Granger causality test shows that FDI had an obvious effect on imports and exports activities of foreign firms, and in the meantime, the imports and exports of foreign firms greatly promoted FDI. However, there is not a stable equilibrium between FDI and international trade in the long run for all firms in China. This paper provides some explanations for the possible reasons that cause the above difference in estimation results from the perspectives of both location and industry factors.      

On the relationship between intermediate input imports and export quality in China

This paper studies the connection between intermediate input imports and firms’ export quality using firm‐level data from 2000 to 2007. Our regression results show that intermediate input imports promote manufacturing firms’ export quality through ‘variety effects’ and ‘innovation effects’, though the effects are significantly different among firms with different characteristics, and the magnitude of these effects differs across import sources and the quality of imported intermediate inputs themselves. Moreover, we find that a good institutional environment is conducive to the strengthening of the positive influence of intermediate input imports on export quality. Furthermore, the dynamic decomposition demonstrates that the reallocation effect is the key force through which imported inputs boost industrial aggregate quality growth. Taken together, these results suggest that product upgrading facilitated by quality embedded in imported intermediate inputs, a good institutional environment and market share reallocation help Chinese firms to improve the quality of their export products.     

The new goods margin in new markets

We analyze the role of the new goods margin in the Baltic countries’ exports and imports growth during the 1995–2008 period. Using the methodology developed in Kehoe and Ruhl (2013), we define the set of least-traded goods as those that account for the lowest 10% of total exports and imports in 1995, and then trace its growth in several markets including the Baltics’ main trade partners, the European Union and Russia. We find that, on average, by 2008 least-traded goods accounted for nearly 50% of total Baltic exports to their main trade partners. Moreover, we find that increases in the share of least-traded exports coincided with the timing of the trade liberalization reforms implemented by the Baltic countries. Least-traded imports also grew at robust rates, but their growth was lower than that of exports, accounting for slightly less than a quarter of total imports, that is, about half of the exports value. Moreover, we find that the shares of least-traded imports from the EU 15 and from Russia started diverging around the time the Baltic countries joined the EU, with the EU 15 share increasing and the Russian one declining. We also find that the Baltics’ share of least-traded exports outpaced that of other economies in Central and Eastern Europe. Finally, exports of new goods from the Baltic countries suffered noticeably during the Global Financial Crisis. After the crisis ended, the restart in new goods exports growth displayed mixed patterns.     

Coffee exports and industrialization in Brazil

We investigate the dynamic relationship between coffee exports and machinery imports in Brazil from 1869 to 1939. Our tests reveal cointegration and bidirectional causality in the temporal sense. This evidence suggests that foreign exchange real revenues from coffee exports were important for the onset of industrialization, as machinery imports proxy for real investment demand. Capital growth, in turn, also helped to boost the country’s exports.     

Heterogeneous firms,corporate taxes and export behavior: A firm-level investigation for Italy

This paper analyses the effect of home corporate taxes on a firm’s decision to expand the scale of its activity through exports using a rich dataset on Italian firms. Starting out from the observation that firms’ export activity vary greatly among them and tend to be systematically related to firm’s characteristics, we relate differences in firms’ export choices to firm level incidence of corporate taxes. Our results suggest that (i) corporate taxes matter at both the extensive and the intensive margin and (ii) higher corporate taxes may increase the probability of new firms’ entry in the foreign market while they decrease the export intensity of incumbent exporters.     

Foreign market conditions and export performance: does ‘crowdedness’ reduce exports?

Abstract This paper analyzes the link between firm exports and the competitive environment in foreign markets. We derive a theory‐based econometric specification linking market‐specific exports to foreign demand and the degree of a market’s ‘crowdedness,’ which depends on the number and efficiency of firms competing there and the barriers impeding their access. Estimates on a large sample of Italian firms indicate that increased crowdedness has reduced Italian exports, but only by 0.2%–0.3% per year. This is substantially less than the contribution of other factors such as higher unit labour costs or weak demand growth in the EU15.     

Who Trades with Whom? Exploring the Links between Firms' International Activities,Skills, and Wages

Using firm‐level data on the Italian manufacturing industry, we examine how trade activities are related to workforce composition and wages. We contribute to empirical research on these issues in three ways. First, we provide new evidence that is consistent with multi‐attribute models on firm heterogeneity and trade. We show that even after controlling for various company characteristics, including size and capital intensity, exporters still pay higher wages and employ more skilled workers than nonexporters. Second, we consider engagement in international transactions, either by means of exports, imports, or a combination of the two. We show that failing to control for importing activities may bias upward export premia. Third, we look at how the wage and the employment structures of trading firms change with the country of destination and origin of trade flows. We find that wage and skill premia are influenced by the characteristics of partner countries.     

Pricing to Firm: an Analysis of Firm‐ and Product‐level Import Prices*

We use Hungarian Customs data on product‐level imports of manufacturing firms to document that the import price of a particular product varies substantially across buying firms. We relate the level of import prices to firm characteristics such as size, foreign ownership, and market power. We develop a theory of “pricing to firm” (PTF), where markups depend on the technology and competitive environment of the buyer. The predictions of the model are confirmed by the data: import prices are higher for firms with greater market power, and for more essential intermediate inputs (with a high share in material costs). We take account of the endogeneity of the buyer’s market power with respect to higher import prices and unobserved cost heterogeneity within product categories. The magnitude of PTF is big: the standard deviation of price predicted by PTF is 21.5%.     

海外市场需求与跨国垂直并购——基于低端下游企业的视角

本文构建了一个产品从低端到高端分布的Hotelling模型,以探讨我国低端下游企业进行跨国垂直并购的时机选择和决定因素。研究表明,垂直并购国外高端上游企业能实现扩大市场份额、提升产品定位的双重效能。海外市场需求环境对低端下游企业拓展战略起关键性作用。在正常需求条件下,与直接出口及先并购国内上游企业再出口两种模式相比,跨国垂直并购并非最优选择。在遭受负向需求冲击时,国外上游企业生产成本的大幅上升以及国外下游竞争对手品牌价值的下降给跨国垂直并购带来了契机,此时在技术密集度较高的上游产业进行跨国垂直并购成为国内低端下游企业的最优选择。如果并购能实现足够大的品牌价值效应,还会改善被并购企业所在国的社会福利水平。     

Wage and Mobility Effects of Trade and Migration on the Austrian Labour Market

This study analyses the effect of trade and migration on wages and labour marketmobility. We estimate wage growth equations and a multinomial logit mobilityequation on an individual data set ranging from 1991 to 1994. We find substantialdifferences in the reactions of white and blue-collar workers wages and mobilityto trade and migration. In Austria exports have a positive and imports a negativeimpact on wage growth only for blue-collar workers. Migrants also reduce onlyblue-collar workers wage growth. Our results indicate that higher imports and aninflow of migrants reduce sectoral mobility of all types workers. The risk of beingout of work by contrast is increased by migration and imports only for blue-collarworkers, but reduced by exports for all types of workers. In general our results suggestenlargement of the EU would have only small effects on the Austrian labour market.     

Impact of regional interactions on China’s trade performance: evidence from a spatial econometric approach

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we examine the impact of regional interactions on China’s trade performance as supported by infrastructure development, using exports and imports of Chinese-owned and foreign-owned firms disaggregated for 28 provinces. Taking into account the disparities in the regional economic activities, we use five spatial weight matrices in a spatial panel lag and spatial panel error frameworks in the period 1996–2016. The spherical distance and the gasoline usage weight matrices measure the impact of ground connections on China’s trade flows. The nautical miles and the river distance weight matrices measure the impact of maritime and river connections on trade flows for provinces along the sea coast, in the Yangtze valley, and along Zhu river, respectively. We find significant cross border effects on provincial trade flows. The effects vary between areas and firms. Overall, our findings show positive influence of regional interactions on China’s international trade performance.     

Disentangling barriers to internationalization

Abstract. Recent literature on multinational firms has focused on low productivity as a barrier to the internationalization of firms. But labour market frictions or financial constraints may also hamper internationalization. In order to assess the importance of these barriers, we present new empirical evidence on the extensive and intensive margin of exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) based on micro‐level data of German firms. First, we find a positive impact of firm size and productivity on firms’ international activities. Second, labour market frictions can constitute barriers to foreign activities. Third, self‐reported financial constraints have no impact on firms’ internationalization decisions. JEL classification: F23, G2     

Market structures in small open economies: Evidence from Denmark

This paper provides some stylized facts about market structure in Denmark, a country exhibiting high rates of exports and imports as is common in small developed economies. Utilizing disaggregated data at the firm-product level for manufacturing industries, we highlight the widespread presence of industries that are neither purely oligopolistic or monopolistically competitive; rather, they contain a few domestic leaders with numerous firms having insignificant domestic market shares. We also document that, relative to the latter type of firms, leaders have greater labor productivity, are more capital intensive, and pay higher wages; additionally, they are more likely to export and import, although they exhibit a greater domestic intensity relative to exporters with negligible domestic market shares. Finally, through a model of leaders and followers, we investigate how leaders can benefit from acting strategically against small firms and quantify its potential impact on industry outcomes through a numerical exercise.     

Young startup firm exports and productive efficiency

We employ the United States Census Bureau’s 2007 Survey of Business Owners to examine the relationship between the productive efficiency of startup firms and their level of exports. We find, consistent with previous work in the literature, that a small firm’s exports are positively related to their level of productive efficiency. This result holds after controlling for various individual owner, as well as firm, characteristics. Our results are also robust to the inclusion of a two-stage estimation strategy to control for the effects of endogeneity in the efficiency–exports relationship.     

Chinese competition and product variety of Indian firms

Using detailed firm-product-year data across manufacturing industries in India, and exploiting the exogenous nature of China’s entry into the WTO in 2001, we investigate the link between the impact of import penetration from China on the product variety of Indian manufacturing firms. We find: (i) robust and significant effects of product drop, with the effect coming only from competitive pressure in the domestic market; (ii) robust evidence of product drop or ‘creative destruction’ only for firms belonging to the lower-half of the size distribution; (iii) firms drop their peripheral/marginal products and concentrate on the core ones; and (iv) the result is strongest for firms producing intermediate goods. For an average Indian manufacturing firm, a 10 percentage point increase in India’s Chinese share of imports in the domestic market reduces the product scope of firms by 1.7–4.4%. In contrast, we find positive effects on product scope when firms are importing intermediate goods. We also find evidence of significant productivity effects and within-firm factor reallocation. Our results are consistent to a battery of robustness checks and IV estimation.     

Value-Added Erosion in Global Value Chains: An Empirical Assessment

In the period from 1995 to 2008, many countries experienced what we call the “value-added erosion.” It describes the decline in the sectoral shares of domestic value-added in a country’s exports as the country becomes more integrated into the global value chains (GVCs). We argue that the decline of the domestic value-added share in a country’s exports is likely to be caused by the expansion of high value-adding activities performed by foreign lead firms in the upper stream of the GVCs. The variables of interest — the domestic value-added share in exports and foreign high-skill labor embodied in a country’s exports (a proxy for foreign lead firms’ high value-adding activities) — are estimated using a multi-regional global input-output model. Using these results and other control variables, we apply a panel cointegration model to explain and assess the likelihood of value-added erosion and its possible determinants.     

Exchange‐rate Effects on China's Trade*

Though China's share of world trade exceeds that of Japan, little is known about the response of China's trade to changes in exchange rates. The few estimates available have two limitations. First, the data for trade prices are based on proxies for prices from other countries. Secondly, the estimation sample includes the period of China's transformation from a centrally‐planned economy to a more market‐oriented one. We address these limitations with an empirical model explaining the shares of China's exports and imports in world trade in terms of the real effective value of the renminbi. The specifications control for foreign direct investment and for the role of imports of parts to assemble exports. Parameter estimation uses disaggregated monthly trade data and excludes China's decentralization period. We find that a 10 percent real appreciation of the renminbi lowers the share of aggregate Chinese exports by nearly one percentage point. However, the estimated response of imports is negligible and lacks precision.     

Multi-product firms,heterogeneous quality and exporting behaviour: product-level evidence from the movie industry

This article examines how quality affects heterogeneous multiple-product firms’ exporting behaviours. We develop a structural model of the global movie market, including both consumers’ movie demand choices and firms’ exporting decisions. A movie studio is a multi-product firm that releases many movies within a year. We model movie quality as a combination of firm-level appeal and product-level attractiveness. We find that both studio-level and movie-level heterogeneity affect demand for movie, and movie-level heterogeneity is relatively more important. We also explore the counterfactual effects of quality improvement and trade liberalization on trade. Our results show that improvement of quality increases both intensive margin and extensive margin of trade. By elimination of quota, we find that trade liberalization increases movie exports to a foreign market by 19%. The results of our study can also help improve understanding of trade in the service industry. For instance, we do not find a positive correlation between the foreign entry costs and the geographic distance, as in the case of manufacture goods.     

外商投资企业进出口贸易的地区特征及演变路径分析

外商投资企业在我国进出口贸易发展中起着十分重要的作用,而已有文献较少涉及其对我国进出口贸易的影响及其演变特征.文章分析了1992年至2005年我围外商投资企业进出口贸易的演变路径与特征,结论表明,外商投资企业进出口贸易在东部地区占据不断增强的绝对优势,中西部地区劣势加剧,具有显著的"马太效应".     

EXCHANGE RATE PROBLEMS IN NATIONAL ACCOUNTING OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES*

Developing countries which typically have import surpluses and inflationary pressures because of insufficient savings are prone to use indirect taxes on imports (Tm) and subsidization of exports (Sx) in order to prevent deterioration of the balance of trade. If these substitutes for devaluation are included in the net indirect tax component of product at current market prices (Ym) the import surplus is likely to be understated, and Ym upward biased. This distortion will be avoided if imports and exports are measured at effective exchange rates (ER), that is, at official rates (OR) plus Tm and Sx respectively, and if (Tm - Sx) is deducted from the net indirect tax component of Ym. Only in this manner become imports and exports consistent with the other uses and resources at market prices and can be articulated with them. At base-year prices the volume index of product at OR diverges from that of ER to the degree that the composition of imports and exports in regard to tax and subsidy rates computed ad valorem significantly changes. Such a case is similar to that of the price indexes of imports and exports moving in diverging proportions: the trade balance at base-year prices will differ from that at current prices. The resulting discrepancies in national accounts have led to proposals of deflating, for example, exports by the price index of imports. Suchlike approaches are incompatible with the principle of national accounting that prices are supposed already to measure substitution values. Deflating exports by import prices means reintroducing substitution values, as does, for example, deflation of incomes by a consumer price index. Correspondingly, since the trade balance at ER conceptually expresses the value of imports at domestic market prices as compared to the corresponding domestic market value of exports, and if at ER the trade balance diverges from that at OR, the former balance has an important meaning (as has the trade balance at base-year prices as compared to that at current prices) and the resulting discrepancy between the two measures should not be removed merely for the sake of accounting smoothness. In contrast to the market price approach, the measurement of product at base-year factor cost is indifferent to the measurement of the trade balance at ER and at OR. It is, therefore, proposed in countries in which part of import taxation and export subsidization substitutes for devaluation, to record imports and exports in the national accounts at effective exchange rates, and to correct the net indirect tax component of product correspondingly. Imports and exports at official exchange rates should be shown within the balance of payments, and the latter separately as a memorandum item.