Elasticities of mode choice probabilities and market elasticities of demand: Evidence from a simultaneous mode choice/shipment-size freight transport model

This paper presents empirical estimates of market elasticities of demand and elasticities of mode choice probabilities in the intercity freight transport market. Results are derived from a mixed discrete/continuous choice model of mode and shipment size. The mode choice component of the full model was specified as a binary probit function. The two modes considered were rail and regulated common carriers (full truck load). Data was drawn from the US Commodity Transportation Survey consisting of individual shipments of manufactured goods identified at the most disaggregate level. Results obtained in this study are compared with those obtained in previous studies, and areas of similarities and dissimilarities in the magnitude as well as interpretation of the results are highlighted. The own-price and cross-price elasticities of mode choice probabilities were found to vary from 1.44 to 1.88, and from 1.54 to 1.75, respectively. The market price elasticities of demand were found to vary significantly across commodity groups and geographic territories. Among the 40 market segments considered, the truck price elasticity of demand ranged between −0.749 and −2.525; the rail price elasticity of demand was slightly larger, ranging between −0.956 and −2.489; and the rail–truck cross-price elasticity of demand ranged between 0.904 and 2.532.     

Price elasticities of demand for passenger air travel: a meta-analysis

The demand for air transport is largely determined by the spending capacity of customers. This paper aims to offer more insight into the determinants of price elasticities in the aviation sector. It seeks to identify both common and contrasting factors that influence the price elasticities, on the basis of a comparative analysis among a large number of empirical studies in this field. By means of meta-analytical methods, the relative importance of several driving forces such as distance, type of ticket and the nature of study is investigated.     

A weighted logit freight mode-choice model

The paper describes the estimation of a weighted discrete choice model applicable for analysing choice of mode and crossing for freight in the Oresund region. The study finds that, by applying a weighted logit approach, it is possible to establish a suitable decoupling of agents and shipments. Moreover, by assessing preferences on the basis of a representative baseline OD matrix it is possible to better reflect the dependence between mode substitution effects and geography/infrastructure. The paper presents demand elasticities with respect to monetary cost and travel time as well as value-of-time estimates for five modes and thirteen commodity groups.     

Accounting for differences in modelled estimates of RP,SP and RP/SP direct petrol price elasticities for car mode choice: A warning

Using a sample of 245 direct petrol price elasticities of car travel collected from 52 published mode choice studies, a random coefficient regression model is estimated to account for heterogeneity in the influence of the type of data used in the various studies (RP, SP and a combination of RP/SP). The focus on the type of data is designed to highlight a concern that has emerged in the way that an increasing number of researchers and consultants derive elasticities from stand-alone stated preference studies, and apply them. It is well known that this is not valid without model calibration (usually via the mode-specific constants), since the elasticity formula uses the probability of an alternative being chosen. To understand the extent of possible behavioural response bias when calibration is ignored is important, signalling a possible adjustment process to correct for the absence of calibration relative to calibrated RP and or RP/SP derived elasticities.     

铁路货运价格策略研究

运价是客户选择运输方式的重要因素。铁路货物运价存在着运价政策、运价管理机制与市场脱节等问题。应用铁路货运价格理论,借鉴美国铁路运价策略,提出我国铁路货运价格应实施以国家统一运价为基础,运输企业根据市场供求关系,掌握一定的运价浮动权,并实行多种形式的运输价格等策略。     

Temporal variance of revealed preference on-street parking price elasticity

This paper utilises revealed-preference parking trend data from parking meters ex ante and ex post of a general 50% price increase in the hourly cost of on-street parking to estimate the on-street parking price elasticity of demand in an area of Dublin, Ireland. Estimates are presented for the aggregate price elasticity of demand level and individual estimates for specific time periods and days of the week. In terms of reduced parking frequency, the average price elasticity of demand reported is −0.29. Daily average estimates are consistent, with one notable exception being Thursday, a ‘late night shopping’ day for which a lower price sensitivity is reported. Morning periods are also shown to be more responsive than other time periods in the test area, indicating some potential for influencing morning inbound peak traffic levels.     

A dynamic panel analysis of urban metro demand

A dynamic panel model is used to estimate the effect that fares, income and quality of service have on demand for a sample of 22 urban metros. The estimated price elasticity is −0.05 in the short run and −0.33 in the long run. The estimated long run income elasticity is small but positive (0.18), indicating that metros are perceived as normal goods. The quality of service elasticities are positive and substantially higher than the absolute value of fare elasticities. The implication is that quality of service improvements, rather than fare reductions, may be more effective in increasing metro patronage.     

Synchromodal hinterland freight transport: Model study for the port of Rotterdam

This paper develops a model that enables comparative analysis of intermodal and synchromodal operations from economic, societal, and environmental perspectives. The model captures relevant (day-to-day and within-day) dynamics in freight transport demand and supply, flexible multimodal routing with transfers and transhipments. The capacitated schedule-based assignment algorithm operating specifically at path level allows strategic modelling and evaluation accounting for the freight transport system at operational level. The Rotterdam hinterland container transport case study shows that synchromodal system is likely to improve transport service level, capacity utilization, and modal shift, but not to reduce delivery costs.     

The success story of Spanish suburban railways: determinants of demand and policy implications

Ridership of suburban railway services in Spain has experienced a 30% increase during the 1990s. This paper carries out the estimation of an aggregate demand function using panel data from eleven urban areas. Among other results, short- and long-run elasticities with respect to both prices and a quality measure are obtained. These results are used to discuss the policy alternatives that RENFE faces in order to increase its revenue in the future.     

Low-cost airlines and airport competition

An important question from the viewpoint of competition analysis in the air transport industry is the extent to which low-cost airlines operating from a secondary airport compete with full-service airlines serving a main airport in a multiple airport region. In this paper we address the issue of the competition between full-service and low-cost airlines serving adjacent airports in the Greater London using econometric estimation of demand structure (own- and cross-price elasticities). Our analysis follows the methodology in (Pels, E., Nijkamp, P., Rietveld, P., 2000. Airport and airline competition for passengers departing from a large metropolitan area. Journal of Urban Economics, 48 (1), 29–45, Pels, E., Nijkamp, P., Rietveld, P., 2003. Access to and competition between airports: a case study for the San Francisco Bay area. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 37 (1), 71–83). It is based on the nested logit model which we use to capture three key dimensions of passenger choice: air fare, surface-access costs and frequency. We obtained estimates of the own- and cross-price elasticities, which was the focus of our interest. On the basis of our understanding of the industry dynamics we find these estimates, especially of the cross-price elasticities, to be on the low side.     

On structural inelasticity of modal substitution in freight transport

At the European level there is an increasing focus on how freight transport can be moved from trucks on roads to more environmentally friendly modes such as rail and ship. A large proportion of the transport services between OD pairs, however, cannot be substituted since there is only one alternative available. The paper investigates the magnitude of this “structural inelasticity” of modal substitution in freight transport due to a sparser layout of rail and ship-based freight networks compared to road. In the analysis we use a recent Scandinavian freight demand model covering more than 800 zones. We find that the structural inelasticity is very significant - in particular for transportation over less than 500 km. Moreover, the inelasticity varies greatly with commodity groups and between OD pairs, and it depends strongly on the port and rail infrastructure. The results suggest that pure charging instruments (road pricing for trucks) in many regions will have limited mode substitution impacts. However, if combined with structural changes in terms of improved infrastructure for rail and ship, impacts may be greater.     

Effect of low-cost airlines on tourism in Spain. A dynamic panel data model

This article estimates the impact of low-cost airlines on Spanish tourism during the first decade of the 21st century looking tourist traffic from the principal EU-15 member states using a dynamic panel data. The expansion in low-cost airline activity has had significant, positive direct and indirect effects on the Spanish economy. The study also looks at some of the key elasticities of demand that have influenced this.     

云南铁路货运量增长问题研究

在分析国内外铁路货运需求增长模型的基础上,提出铁路货运需求增长过程的4阶段划分理论,结合云南铁路发展滞后的现状,建立了消除铁路货运能力限制的货运量增长模型。通过对云南铁路货运量和货运需求量的计算,应用MATLAB仿真技术验证了模型的正确性,并对云南铁路货运量和货运需求量进行了预测。     

Freight transportation demand elasticities: a geographic multimodal transportation network analysis

This paper presents direct and cross-elasticity estimates of the demands for three freight transportation modes: rail, road and inland waterways. They are computed for 10 different categories of goods with a detailed multimodal network model of Belgian freight transports. The model, which minimises the generalised cost of transportation tasks defined by O-D matrices, assigns traffic flows to the different modes, transport means and routes. Successive simulations with different relative costs permit the computation of specific arc-elasticities. In contrast with the usual methodologies, the present methodology is not based on a statistical analysis of disaggregate data on actual modal choices and transport tariffs. This is a particularly useful feature since such data are mostly not available for freight transports in Europe. Furthermore, it fully takes into account the detailed characteristics of the network, all available routes and combinations of modes, as well as the specific localisation of activities within the network. Its estimates are compared with previously published estimates, and, in particular, with Abdelwahab's results published (1998) in this journal.     

The geography of freight-related accidents in the era of E-commerce: Evidence from the Los Angeles metropolitan area

Due to the burgeoning demand for freight movement in the era of e-commerce, freight related road safety threats have been growing in both urban and suburban areas, despite the improved general traffic safety over the past decades. The empirical evidence on how freight trucks related crashes are distributed across neighborhoods and correlated to spatially varying factors is, however, highly limited. This article uses data from the Los Angeles region in 2018 to analyze the spatial patterns of freight trucks related traffic crashes and examines the major factors that contribute to those patterns using spatial econometric models. Maps show that freight trucks related crashes are highly associated with major freight generators but less clustered than the overall traffic crashes. Results from the spatial Durbin model indicate that access to freight generators, economic attributes, land uses, road infrastructure, and road network variables all contribute to the spatial distribution of freight trucks related crashes. The findings could help transport planners understand the dynamics of freight trucks related traffic safety and develop operational measures for mitigating the impacts of growing goods movement on local communities.     

Estimating local car ownership models

Many studies in the transport demand literature have shown that income is an important factor in determining how many cars a household owns. When the models used to measure the strength of this relationship are estimated on cross-sectional data, they typically yield one overall value as the estimate. Local circumstances will, however, vary. This paper illustrates the use of the Geographically Weighted Regression technique to estimate the individual strength of this relationship for each of the United Kingdom electoral wards. Use of this type of model enables a wards’ income elasticity to be based on both the local estimate of the strength of this relationship and the current local level of car ownership. How the use of this local elasticity changes future forecasts of the size of the vehicle fleet is illustrated.     

竞争性综合运输中公路货运定价的研究

利用双层优化方法,将公路货运企业的经营目标函数和客户的选择函数统一考虑,分析了在客户选择最优基础上的公路货运定价问题,通过构建模型,求解得到货运价格。该价格是满足消费者福利剩余最大化的价格,有利于社会资源的优化配置和公路货运企业、综合运输市场的发展。     

铁路集装箱运价策略研究

在市场经济环境下,运输价格是客户选择运输方式的重要因素,但目前我国铁路集装箱运输在运价方面还存在一些问题。通过分析铁路集装箱运输的特殊性,并将其运价划分为3类,提出对不同附加值的货物采用不同的运输费率、实行折扣运价和合理确定运行基价等建议,并建立了铁路集装箱最优运价模型。     

The effect of travel cost on frequencies of shopping and recreational trips in Sweden

This article focus on how the cost of travel affects travel behavior. A trip frequency model for recreational and shopping trips is suggested and used to investigate this. The data that is used comes from a Swedish travel habit survey where the respondents’ trip frequencies of both types of trips on a certain day are recorded. This is likely to introduce a correlation structure, which is incorporated in the model. Special attention is paid to the effect of travel cost on trip frequencies for different regions and income groups. As a measure of the sensitivity of cost changes, elasticity of demand is calculated. The precision of the elasticities are evaluated with simulated p-values.     

Seasonality patterns in dry bulk shipping spot and time charter freight rates

This paper investigates the nature of seasonality (deterministic and/or stochastic) in dry bulk freight rates, and measures and compares it across freight rates of different vessel sizes (Capesize, Panamax and Handysize), contract duration (spot, 1-year and 3-year time charters) and market conditions (peaks and troughs). Although, there is no evidence of stochastic seasonality, deterministic seasonality in freight rates is found to be varying from −18.2% to 15.3% in individual months within a year. Spot rates for larger vessels exhibit higher seasonal fluctuations compared to smaller vessels, although differences in seasonal fluctuations between sectors are eliminated as the contract duration increases. Also, for each vessel size, the seasonality declines as the contract duration rises. Asymmetries in seasonal fluctuations in freight rates over different market conditions are attributed to the high and low elasticities of supply expected under the respective market conditions. The results have implications for tactical shipping operations such as timing of dry-docking, chartering strategies and switching between freight markets.