数字普惠金融发展与基本公共服务均等化：理论阐释与实证分析

提升基本公共服务均等化水平,是建设社会主义现代化的重要任务。文章通过理论分析发现,数字普惠金融对基本公共服务均等化具有直接和间接推动作用;实证研究发现,数字普惠金融能够显著促进基本公共服务均等化,并产生结构效应和收入效应。结构效应表现为数字普惠金融对教育、文化和医疗公共服务均等化具有显著推动作用,对社保公共服务均等化作用不显著;数字普惠金融的覆盖广度、使用深度和数字化程度等不同维度对不同类型基本公共服务均等化的作用性质也不相同。收入效应则表现为数字普惠金融可以通过提高居民收入水平促进基本公共服务均等化;收入效应具有地区异质性,体现为数字普惠金融在低收入水平地区对基本公共服务均等化不具有显著性作用,而在中高收入水平地区具有显著的推动作用。据此,文章提出推动数字普惠金融发展的政策建议。     

我国城乡基本公共服务均等化分析

我国存在明显的基本公共服务均等化城乡差异,城乡间基本公共服务呈现能力差异和水平差异,分析城乡基本公共服务不均等的现状及成因,对于推进基本公共服务均等化具有重要的理论及现实指导意义。本文将就此展开论述。     

我国城乡基本公共服务均等化分析

我国存在明显的基本公共服务均等化城乡差异,城乡间基本公共服务呈现能力差异和水平差异,分析城乡基本公共服务不均等的现状及成因,对于推进基本公共服务均等化具有重要的理论及现实指导意义。本文将就此展开论述。     

基本公共服务均等化水平评估——基于新生代农民工城市融合的视角

我国城市化背景下,农民工特别是新生代农民工迫切需要融入城市,而基本公共服务的供给不均是影响新生代农民工城市融合的主要障碍,政府应承担起基本公共服务均等化的职责,保障公民最基本的生存权和发展权。本文通过实地调研并估算基本公共服务均等化水平指数,发现当前新生代农民工享受到的基本公共服务均等化水平偏低,政府应有针对性地在社会保障、就业、子女入学、医疗卫生等公共服务领域实现均等化。     

陕西省城乡公共服务均等化水平变动趋势研究

推进城乡公共服务均等化是改变城乡二元结构,解决＂三农＂问题,促进经济发展和社会稳定的重要途径,本文依据城乡公共服务均等化的内涵,构建城乡公共服务均等化水平的评价指标体系,从陕西省现状出发,运用主成分分析方法,对2006-2012年陕西省城乡公共服务均等化水平变动趋势进行测度,并依据测度结果分析影响陕西省城乡公共服务均等化水平的基本因素,进而提出城乡公共服务均等化的实现路径,以期为陕西省推进城乡统筹发展提供借鉴。     

城乡基本公共服务均等化对劳动力转移、城乡收入差距的影响机理分析及实证检验——以新疆为例

城乡基本公共服务均等化水平的提高对新疆城乡居民收入差距的缩小有着重要的影响。文章在"乡村振兴战略"的背景下,剖析了城乡基本公共服务均等化对农村劳动力转移、城乡收入差距的影响机理,认为城乡基本公共服务的非均等化会造成城乡居民基本权力的差异,进而影响到劳动力转移和城乡收入差距。在通过对新疆数据的实证分析后发现:(1)新疆城乡基本公共服务均等化水平呈上升趋势;(2)城乡基本公共服务均等化对缩小城乡收入差距起正向作用;(3)城乡收入差距在一定程度上推动劳动力外移;(4)城乡基本公共服务均等化水平的提高对农村劳动力的向外转移还有着一定的抑制作用;(5)城乡基本公共服务均等化可以使农村劳动力外移的减少长期化,从而对缩小城乡收入差距起长期正向作用。文章发现城乡基本公共服务的供给面临着农村自然社会经济生态的影响以及"城市偏向"财政政策的制约,要达到基本公共服务、劳动力转移和城乡收入差距的良性循环,就要从以上两方面入手,建立起可行的基本公共服务供给机制。     

基本公共服务均等化说易行难——国际视角下的均等化“得与失”

从国际经验看,均等化是中央或联邦政府通过制定相关基本公共服务国家标准,在财政上确保负责提供服务的地方政府具有均等支付这些基本公共服务的能力,确保每个公民不分城乡、不分地区地能够有机会接近法定基本公共服务项目的过程。均等化包含了丰富的内容,公共服务均等化是其中的内容之一。     

地方公共服务水平均等化的衡量

本文通过因子分析模型,运用2000-2008年全国282个地级市数据对我国的基本公共服务均等化的水平进行了衡量,发现虽然我国地方基本公共服务水平差距仍较大,尤其是东部地区与中西部地区,应完善我国公共财政机制。     

区域内城乡基本公共服务均等化进程及实现机制分析——基于山东省3市6区县调查的经济学思考

城乡基本公共服务均等化实现的前提与关键在于农村公共服务水平的提高,而我国疆域辽阔、城乡与地区差距悬殊的国情则决定了均等化的实现必然要经历一个由小及大(实现空间范围)、从低到高(实现水平)、先易后难(实现难易程度)的过程。     

地方公共服务水平均等化的衡量

本文通过因子分析模型,运用2000-2008年全国282个地级市数据对我国的基本公共服务均等化的水平进行了衡量,发现虽然我国地方基本公共服务水平差距仍较大,尤其是东部地区与中西部地区,应完善我国公共财政机制.     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.