Hölder continuity of the policy function approximation in the value function approximation

We show that given a value function approximation V of a strongly concave stochastic dynamic programming problem (SDDP), the associated policy function approximation is Hölder continuous in V.     

Evolution paths on the equilibrium manifold

In a pure exchange smooth economy with fixed total resources, we define the length between two regular equilibria belonging to the equilibrium manifold as the number of intersection points of the evolution path connecting them with the set of critical equilibria. We show that there exists a minimal path according to this definition of length.     

The relationship between revealed preference and the Slutsky matrix

This paper presents a method of calculating the utility function from a smooth demand function whose Slutsky matrix is negative semi-definite and symmetric. The calculated utility function is the unique upper semi-continuous function corresponding with the demand function. Moreover, we present an axiom for demand functions. We show that under the strong axiom, this new axiom is equivalent to the existence of the corresponding continuous preference relation. If the demand function obeys this axiom, the calculated utility function is also continuous. Further, we show that the mapping from the demand function into a continuous preference relation is continuous, which ensures the applicability of our results for econometrics. Moreover, if this demand function satisfies the rank condition, then our utility function is smooth. Finally, we show that under an additional axiom, the above results hold even if the demand function has corner solutions.     

Instability in the cobweb model under the BNN dynamic

The cobweb model where firms choose between rational and naive forecasting strategies has a 2-cycle when the slope of supply is greater than the slope of demand for a number of different dynamics describing the evolution of strategy choices. This paper proves that the 2-cycle is exponentially unstable under the learning dynamic of Brown et al. (1950). Issues arising in the analysis of piecewise smooth discrete time maps are discussed.     

Smooth inequality measurement: Approximation theorems

The main purpose of this paper is to prove that smoothness is not a restrictive assumption in inequality measurement as any inequality measure (preorder) can be approximated in a well defined sense by a smooth inequality measure (preorder).     

Deregulating the electricity industry in Nigeria: Lessons from the British reform

The Federal Republic of Nigeria has set out the modalities for launching a competition policy regime in its electricity industry in 2006. By analysing the factors that may inhibit a smooth transition to contestable regimes in generation (commodity and capacity) and in supply (metering, billing and customer services), this paper lays the foundation for the policy advisors to begin to re-think whether unbundling and deregulation is the best way for Nigeria to improve power supply. The paper concludes that, consistent with some of the other countries in sub-Saharan Africa, implementing a hastily convened competition policy will be a huge transaction cost, and one that will yield the country very little (if any) economic benefit.     

Monetary policy transparency in a forward-looking market: Evidence from the United States

Because unsatisfactory measures of the monetary policy transparency were used, the existing literature found mixed empirical results for the relationship between the monetary policy transparency and risk/volatility. This paper extends the literature by using a recently developed monetary transparency index [Kia’s (2011) index] which is dynamic and continuous. Furthermore, the existing literature ignores the fact that market participants can be forward looking and, therefore, not policy invariant. This study also finds that the agents in the market are not policy invariant and the more transparent the monetary policy is the less risky and volatile the money market will be.     

Defining efficient policies in a general equilibrium model: a multi-objective approach

Macroeconomic policy makers are typically concerned with several indicators of economic performance. We thus propose to tackle the design of macroeconomic policy using Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques. More specifically, we employ Multi-objective Programming (MP) to seek so-called efficient policies. The MP approach is combined with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We chose use of a CGE model since it has the dual advantage of being consistent with standard economic theory while allowing one to measure the effect(s) of a specific policy with real data. Applying the proposed methodology to Spain (via the 1995 Social Accounting Matrix) we first quantified the trade-offs between two specific policy objectives: growth and inflation, when designing fiscal policy. We then constructed a frontier of efficient policies involving real growth and inflation. In doing so, we found that policy in 1995 Spain displayed some degree of inefficiency with respect to these two policy objectives. We then offer two sets of policy recommendations that, ostensibly, could have helped Spain at the time. The first deals with efficiency independent of the importance given to both growth and inflation by policy makers (we label this set: general policy recommendations). A second set depends on which policy objective is seen as more important by policy makers: increasing growth or controlling inflation (we label this one: objective-specific recommendations).     

货币供应量对价格体系的传导效应分析

货币作为中间目标变量存在于经济生活中的任何一部分。国民经济的健康运转离不开货币,而货币政策作为重要工具在宏观经济调控中起着举足轻重的作用。本文选用2004年1月-2014年3月货币供应量与价格指数的季度时间序列数据,通过非线性平滑转换模型,实证研究了货币供应量与价格体系之间的动态关系,得出我国货币供应量对价格体系具有较强的传导效应。在基于以上研究结果的基础上对我国货币政策提出了相关的政策建议。     

The 3‐day Week of 1974 and Earnings Data Reliability in the Family Expenditure Survey and the National Child Development Study*

In early 1974, an energy conservation policy limited the British workweek to 3 days. Researchers fear that earnings reports given by survey respondents during this period may not be comparable with those given in more typical circumstances. This study uses responses during and after the 3‐day week policy to estimate the degree of misreporting in the National Child Development Study (NCDS) and the Family Expenditure Survey (FES). The estimates show that very few respondents gave ‘incorrect’ 3‐day figures. In the FES, the estimated fraction of misreports is no larger than 3.2%; in the NCDS, the best estimate is 0.     

Who else is bidding? The Pareto optimality of disclosing bidder identities

This paper examines whether the seller of an object should reveal the identities of the participating bidders before bids become due. It is shown that when bidders experience identity dependent externalities and auction participation is exogenous, then for a large class of standard auction mechanisms, a policy of revelation serves to realize a higher surplus because it improves the accuracy of each bidder's estimate of her ex-post willingness-to-pay, and therefore changes the auction allocation in a more ex-post efficient manner. Furthermore, it is shown that the policy of revelation increases both the expected seller revenues as well as ex-ante expected bidder payoffs. Received: 4 February 2000 / Accepted: 15 November 2000 An earlier version of this paper had the title 'Disclosure of Bidder Identities'. I thank an anonymous referee and an Associate Editor for suggestions that improved the paper. I also acknowledge comments made by participants of the Auctions session during the North American Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society 2001 held in New Orleans. I remain solely responsible for any errors.     

会计政策选择本质探讨

比较传统会计与现代会计本质差异，透视会计政策选择的本质，指出会计政策选择行为实质是经济后果的不断博弈。研究结果表明可以通过发挥会计政策选择行为的信号显示作用，不断促进我国资本市场的健康发展。     

宏观经济调控执行绩效的一个数量评价:1985～2005年

有效实施宏观经济调控是各国政府的一个中心职能,其目的在于熨平经济周期波动,维持经济总量大体平衡,从而为市场有效配置资源,实现经济的长期增长创造有利条件。客观评价宏观经济调控的执行绩效有助于政策当局反思政策制定过程中的不适当行为,不断改进宏观经济管理水平,从而更好地实现政策目标。在本文中,我们忽略宏观经济调控政策的内部构成,视其为一个整体,基于政策当局的损失函数,设计了一个新的模型框架,对宏观经济调控执行绩效进行数量评价。     

Sprumont's characterization of the uniform rule when all single-peaked preferences are admissible

Sprumont (1991) has established that the only allocation rule for the division problem that is strategy-proof, efficient, and anonymous is the uniform rule when the domain is the set of all possible profiles of continuous single-peaked preferences. Sprumont's characterization of the uniform rule is shown to hold on any larger domain of single-peaked preferences. Received: 15 December 1998 / Accepted: 12 April 1999     

Nonlinear effects of monetary policy on stock returns in a smooth transition autoregressive model

This paper employs smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models to investigate the nonlinear effect of monetary policy on stock returns. The change in the Federal funds rate is used as an endogenous measure of monetary policy, and the growth rate of industrial production is also considered in the model. Our results show that the relationship between the monetary policy and excess returns on stock prices is positive and nonlinear. A decrease in the Federal funds rate causes a larger increase in excess returns if excess stock returns are located in the extreme low excess returns regime.     

Common agency with risk-averse agent

In a common agency model with a risk-averse agent and private information distortion in the equilibrium policy from the first-best is greater compared to the case of a risk-neutral agent. The principals are unable to screen completely the agent’s preferences if he is sufficiently risk-averse: there is bunching in the contract. The contribution schedules keep track of informational externality. However, when the coefficient of risk-aversion goes to zero the contributions become truthful as in the complete information case.     

Green public procurement: An empirical analysis of the uptake of organic food policy

This paper analyses the uptake of a voluntary green public procurement policy in Sweden. The policy, decided in 2006, stated a national goal for the public sector to increase its share of organic food purchases to 25% by 2010. The overall purpose was to increase organic farming. Municipalities, which are highly independent authorities with self-determination, were encouraged to formulate own political goals. Based on survey data on organic food purchases for the period 2003–2016, supplemented with data on municipality characteristics, we analyse the determinants of the local uptake of the national policy, accounting for potential selection bias. The main finding is that local political goals are set and that these have in turn, a significant and positive effect on the share of organic food purchases. This suggests that there is an uptake of the voluntary policy. Also, we find that the increase in expenditures per capita devoted to organic food is quite substantial following the adoption of a local policy.     

Policy change and learning in the RBC model

What is the impact of surprise and anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations? We examine this issue using the standard stochastic real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes. Agents combine knowledge about future policy with econometric forecasts of future wages and interest rates. Dynamics under learning can have large impact effects and a gradual hump-shaped response, and tend to be prominently characterized by oscillations not present under rational expectations. These fluctuations reflect periods of excessive optimism or pessimism, followed by subsequent corrections.     

Solving endogenous regime switching models

This paper solves rational expectations models in which structural parameters switch across multiple regimes according to state-dependent (endogenous) transition probabilities. Assuming small shocks and smooth transition probabilities, we apply a perturbation approach. We first provide for conditions under which a unique bounded equilibrium exists. We then compute first- and second-order approximations. In a new-Keynesian model with monetary policy switching, we document new effects of monetary policy switching when transition probabilities depend on inflation.