Estimating time-varying currency betas with contagion: New evidence from developed and emerging financial markets

This paper examines the conditional time-varying currency betas from five developed and six emerging financial markets with contagion and spillover effects. We employ a trivariate asymmetric BEKK-type GARCH-in-Mean (MGARCH-M) approach to estimate the time-varying conditional variance and covariance of returns of stock market index, the world market portfolio and bilateral exchange rate between the US dollar and the local currency. The results show that the world market and currency risks are not only priced in the stock markets, but also time-varying. It is found that currency betas are much more volatile than the world market betas, and currency betas in the emerging markets are more volatile than those in the developed markets. We find empirical evidence of contagion effect and spillovers between stock market and foreign exchange market during the recent global financial crisis, and the effect is stronger in the emerging markets than that in the developed markets. Two applications are provided to illustrate the usefulness of time-varying currency betas.     

CHANGE IN VOLATILITY REGIMES AND DIVERSIFICATION IN EMERGING STOCK MARKETS

A multivariate Markov-switching ARCH (MVSWARCH) model in which variance/correlations for stock returns is controlled by a state-varying mechanism is introduced and used to design a state-varying US-EM (emerging market) portfolio establishment strategy. Additionally, a conventional random-variance framework, the MVGARCH (multivariate GARCH) model, in which a time-varying technique is involved is employed and subjected to comparative analysis. The empirical results are consistent with the following notions: First, as being consistent with a study conducted by Ramchand and Susmel , the US-EM market correlations are higher when the US market is more volatile. However, this study further indicates that the US-EM market correlations increase relatively more when both the US and EM markets simultaneously experience a high variance condition. Moreover, the situation of both the US and EM stock markets at a high volatility state is associated with a minimum risk reduction benefit and a maximum cross-market correlation. Second, the state-varying portfolio loadings established by the MVSWARCH model could effectively enhance asset allocation effectiveness; however, this benefit arises more as a result of risk reduction than an increase in mean returns.     

基于金融周期视角下股票市场的联动效应研究

世界经济全球化已成为趋势,发达经济体的股市之间以及发达经济体与新兴经济体股市之间的联动性也在经济全球化的趋势中更加紧密。各国金融领域以及金融市场间的快速融合,不断形成统一规范的金融行为准则,也使得全球金融周期性特征越来越明显。文章选取世界五个主要股票市场指数为研究对象,按照已有研究对全球金融周期的划分,将该样本区间分成了繁荣期、衰退期和正常期三个阶段,然后基于这三个阶段分析了在不同金融周期五国股票市场指数收益率联动效应。基于实证研究结论,认为美国和欧洲股市联动性较强,与亚洲股市联动性相对较弱,且美国和中国股市之间联动性最弱,基本捕捉不到下尾相关。相关实证结论有利于国际投资者的投资组合管理,也有助于各国股票市场的风险规避。     

Stock market uncertainty and uncovered equity parity deviation: Evidence from Asia

Recently, many empirical studies document that a country's stock market performance relative to the US and its local currency units per US dollar tend to move in opposite direction over the short run, also known as the uncovered equity parity (UEP) condition. However, those studies have applied only to advanced economies to date. This study conducted the same tests to a sample of 18 Asian economies. To one's surprise, we found that the UEP condition reverses its sign among Asian currencies. In addition, measures of stock market uncertainty are suggested as a potential driving force behind this UEP reversal for Asian economies. This surprising result suggests that there might be other mechanisms behind the joint dynamics of equity and currency returns than the portfolio rebalancing caused by incomplete foreign exchange risk hedging. The reasoning is that Asian foreign exchange (FX) markets are even more subject to incomplete foreign exchange risk hedging. Thus, one should expect even stronger UEP evidence from Asian currency markets if the portfolio rebalancing mechanism was the only force at play.     

The US tech pulse,stock prices,and exchange rate dynamics: Evidence from Asian developing countries

This paper empirically investigates the economic relationship between the US and Asian economies after the Asian currency crisis in Indonesia, Korea, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, employing a cointegration methodology. Based on the empirical results, we conclude that the interdependence between the US and these Asian economies has intensified especially in information technology industries, and that their stock markets are integrated. On the other hand, the relationship between the domestic stock and foreign exchange markets is found to have a negative sign, interpreted by portfolio balance approach, in Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand. This result implies that the exchange rates of these countries are relatively vulnerable to fluctuation in international portfolio investments.     

Contagion in the stock markets: The Asian financial crisis revisited

This paper presents empirical evidence of herding contagion in the stock markets during the 1997 Asian financial crisis, above and beyond macroeconomic fundamental driven co-movements. We analyze the cross-country time-varying correlation coefficients among the stock prices for the countries of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, and the Philippines, between crisis and tranquil periods. Macromodels are constructed and implemented to capture the pure contagion effects on the markets. After controlling for the economic fundamentals for the five countries, the paper finds strong evidence of herding contagion.     

Efficiency,Cointegration and Contagion in Equity Markets: Evidence from China,Japan and South Korea*

This paper empirically examines whether three East Asian stock markets, namely, those of China, Japan and South Korea, are individually and/or jointly efficient, and whether contagion exists between the cointegrated markets. While individual market efficiency is examined through testing for the random walk hypothesis, joint market efficiency is examined through testing for cointegration and contagion. The present study finds that the hypothesis of individual market efficiency is strongly rejected for the Chinese stock market, but not for the Japanese and the South Korean stock markets. However, when testing for cointegration, market efficiency is strongly rejected for all these markets. We take a simple case of contagion and find that although there is a long‐term relationship among the three markets, the contagion hypothesis cannot be rejected only between Japanese and South Korean stock markets, indicating short‐run portfolio diversification benefits from these two markets.     

Does International Diversification Really Diversify Risks?

This paper demonstrates that large adverse shocks are more highly correlated with one another than positive shocks across national stock markets of industrialized economies. This finding is robust if we allow for an ARCH process or if we exclude the data of October 1987. It is shown that the negative skewness of the world market portfolio is primarily responsible for such time-varying correlations of national stock markets. We propose to model the world market portfolio return by using the extended QGARCH model of J. Y. Campbell and L. Hentschel (1992, J. Finan. Econ.31, 281–318). The finding suggests that the U.S. investors' benefit from international portfolio diversification could be far more limited than is commonly thought. J. Japan. Int. Econ., March 2002, 16(1) pp. 109–134. Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Kunitachi-city, Tokyo 186–8603, Japan; and Institute of Policy and Planning Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: F30, G11, G15.     

国家股比例对上市公司市场表现的影响研究

本文通过逻辑回归和线性回归模型,结合我国深沪两市的上市公司数据,对影响公司市场表现的因素进行了分析。在文中考虑的众多财务和股权指标中,国家股比例显著地影响了公司2003年被"ST"的可能性大小。同时,国家股比例对每股收益和市倍率这些对投资者预期产生重要影响的指标没有显著作用。本文有助于投资者理性的评估国家股在上市公司市场表现中的影响,避免盲目卷入国家股减持题材的股市炒作。     

零杠杆上市公司的股票长期收益趋势研究

与国际发达的资本市场类似,我国资本市场也存在企业零（低）杠杆现象。基于1992-2014年沪深两市全部A股上市公司的财务报表数据及股票收益数据,文章使用事件研究法与日历时间组合法,实证检验了零（低）杠杆公司的财务特征及股票长期收益情况。研究表明,我国A股市场中的零（低）杠杆现象呈现扩大化及增长趋势,且零（低）杠杆公司具有规模小、上市年限短、市账比高、投资水平低及盈利性好等共同特征。研究也发现相较非零（低）杠杆公司,连续三（五）年零（低）杠杆公司具有显著的长期超额收益,说明持续的极端财务保守政策对于股票收益具有重要的影响作用。     

Interdependencies among Asian bond markets

There is an ongoing intraregional attempt to develop bond markets in Asia. This is to some extent a result of the Asian financial crisis, which showed the need for well-functioning fixed income markets in the region. This paper analyzes the relationships among four Asian bond markets. Cointegration tests show that the markets exhibit strong long-term interdependencies. In addition, all markets show signs of short-run cross-dependencies in the mean. The correlations between the markets are time-varying and high, except for in short turbulent periods. The results indicate that a regional bond portfolio would allow for some level of risk diversification for investors and that policymakers need to pay attention to movements in different markets.     

Is Violation of the Random Walk Assumption an Exception or a Rule in Capital Markets?

Both the efficient market hypothesis and modern portfolio theory rest on the assumptions of the Gaussian probability distribution and independence of consecutive returns. This paper provides a brief excursion into the history of capital market research. A measure of long-range dependence (Hurst exponent) was applied to daily returns of selected stock indices and individual firms. The Hurst exponent was estimated using rescaled range analysis. The estimates are based on an unusually large sample of empirical-time series from capital markets. This method distinguishes whether the data-generating process follows random walk or exhibits antipersistent or persistent behavior. Both the efficient market hypothesis and modern portfolio theory assume that the data-generating process has no memory, i.e. follows Brownian motion. The random walk process is characterized by a Hurst exponent value of 0.5. Values greater than 0.5 and less than 1 indicate a persistence of local trends. Values between 0 and 0.5 indicate a process that reverts to the mean more often than a random process (mean-reverting process). The results indicated that the series of daily returns exhibit predominantly persistent or antipersistent behavior. Therefore, Brownian motion cannot be perceived as the norm for describing stock market behavior. These findings challenge the assumption of a random walk in stock prices, valuation models and assessment of risk.

     

股权制衡、代理成本与企业绩效——基于我国A股民营上市公司的实证分析

相互制衡的股权结构对完善我国民营上市公司治理机制,提高企业绩效水平具有重要作用。基于我国沪深A股民营上市公司2007-2013年度数据,采用面板数据回归模型实证分析了我国民营上市公司股权制衡度与两类代理成本和企业绩效之间的关系。研究结果发现,股权制衡对代理成本和企业绩效的影响具有异质性,主要表现在以下方面：(1)第一类代理成本与股权制衡度呈“N”型的三次曲线关系,股权制衡度位于区间(0．70,1．92)时,第一类代理成本处于显著下降阶段;(2)第二类代理成本与股权制衡度显著负相关,股权制衡度的提高能够抑制大股东对中小股东的资产侵占行为;(3)企业绩效与股权制衡度之间呈倒“N”型的三次曲线关系,当股权制衡度处于区间(1．14,1．78)时,企业绩效处于上升阶段;(4)既能降低两类代理成本,又能提高企业绩效的股权制衡度的区间为(1．14,1．78),企业的目标股权制衡度应为接近1.78。     

Short selling and stock prices with regime switching in the absence of market makers: The case of Japan

This paper investigates the relation between short selling and stock price at an aggregated market level. In order to study the differential impact of market microstructure on short selling, the data from Japanese stock markets are used. Both traditional regression and Markov switching models are used to compare Japanese results to those of U.S. and to admit non-stationary relation between short selling and stock price, respectively. Particularly, relatively long period (1978–2002) of analysis including bullish and bearish periods gives a good testable bed for studying the effect of short selling on stock price according to market condition. The empirical findings reveal that percentage change of short interests has a statistically significant positive relation with stock returns. It gives regulators policy implication that short selling is not a destabilizing activity, but an acceptable form of trading even in the absence of market makers. And short selling information cannot be used as an indicator for predicting future stock markets.     

Analyzing Heterogeneous Stock Price Comovements Through Hybrid Approaches

This paper studies the hypothesis of stock price comovements between the US market and four different regions (the G6, the BRICS, the MENA (Middle East North Africa) during calm and crisis periods. Using different econometric approaches (BEKK-GARCH model, cointegration tests, and panel cointegration tests), we checked the interdependence of these markets in the short and the long term. Our findings point to the importance of heterogeneity linked to the stock price adjustment process, inviting individual analysis to be carried out according to market specificities in the aim of identifying countries that are sources of investment opportunities. We also highlighted the presence of time-varying stock price comovements that significantly increased after the subprime crisis. This enabled us to specify periods and regions that can still provide promising diversification benefits. Investigation of this issue is of interest for investors and bankers in order to improve their portfolio choices, diversification strategies as well as risk management.     

绝对离差风险测度模型与均值方差模型的比较研究

本文将绝对离差风险测度模型与马科维兹均值方差模型进行比较研究。分析它们之间的关系及各自的优越性；通过引入两种模型的估计误差、两种模型估计错误的机会成本等概念．在小样本股票组合下，比较了两种风险测度模型的有效边界、两种风险测度模型产生估计误差的大小以及产生估计错误的机会成本大小等。研究结果表明，在不同的股票组合样本大小下．两模型的性质和各自的优势会有一定的差异。     

国际资本流动与房地产、上证市场联动性研究

去年底以来,我国出现了国外短期资本出逃的现象,这直接导致了人民币兑美元汇率的连续"跌停"。一方面,作为国外资本的主要投资场所,房地产市场和上证市场的发展状况直接影响了国外短期资本的投资热情;另一方面,国外短期资本的流动也影响着房地产市场和上证市场的发展。鉴于此,本文从外汇储备、房地产市场以及上证市场三个角度,结合相关的实证分析方法,来深刻揭示这三者之间的相互影响关系。分析过程用到的方法包括ADF检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数分析、方差分析等。最后得出三者间存在较为明显的联动效应的结论。     

Portfolio modelling and growth in open economies

The standard BRANSON model is modified in a way which allows one to focus on the short term dynamics of foreign bonds markets, the money market and the stock market—or alternatively the oil market. This allows us to explain the dynamics of the exchange rate and the oil price within a portfolio choice model; also we identify critical expectation dynamics in a more conventional pricing approach to the oil market—expectations determine whether or not the oil market equilibrium is compatible with a stationary price or with sustained oil price inflation. Moreover, a straightforward innovative way to combine a portfolio approach with a growth model is developed. New results are obtained—through multiplier analysis—about the long term effects of changes in the savings rate, the process innovation rate, the product innovation variable and the money supply on the exchange rate and the stock market price; this raises many empirical issues. Finally, the analysis presented sheds new light on the global asset price dynamics in the context of the banking crisis. To the memory of Edward Graham, Petersen Institute for International Economics, Washington D.C.     

基于Copula-GARCH模型的原油市场和股票市场相关性研究

由于原油市场和股票市场之间的联动性日益增强,因此研究两个市场之间的关联特征,分析原油价格波动对股市的影响,有助于规避风险,保证经济持续平稳地增长.采用Copula-GARCH模型对WTI原油价格的收益率序列和NASDAQ股指的收益率序列进行实证分析.结果表明,GARCH(1,1)-t模型拟合两个序列的条件边缘分布效果最好,时变SJC Copula模型比常相关Copula模型能更好地刻画两个市场之间的相关关系.两个收益率序列之间存在正的相关关系,且相关关系具有时变性,相关结构具有一定的不对称性,上尾相关系数小于下尾相关系数,即两个市场同时出现价格极端下跌的可能性更大.这为中国金融市场风险管理,规避油价波动对股市的冲击提供一定的参考依据.     

The Role of Stock Markets in the Asian-Pacific Region

This paper identifies the role of stock markets in developing economies with a focus on the Asian-Pacific region. The region's markets generally do not play a major role in resource allocation. The stock exchanges of the region are primarily secondary markets facilitating portfolio construction by domestic and international investors. The paper concentrates on secondary market activity and the controls regulators use to contain excessive speculation and price volatility. It also covers the role of stock markets in the recent financial crisis in the region.