百名“三农”专家对农村基本公共服务现状的看法

为农村提供基本而有保障的公共服务是新农村建设的重要目标和广大农民的热切期盼。但是，广大农村居民生存状况的继续改善和生活水平的继续提高，最迫切需要哪些基本公共服务？这些基本公共服务的供给面临哪些体制、制度和机制性障碍？在学界和政策研究领域尚未完全达成共识。本文利用中改院组织的“农村基本公共服务现状与问题专家问卷”调查结果，从专家观点、专家分析和专家建议三个方面了解“三农”专家对农村基本公共服务存在的体制、机制性问题的主流见解和存在的分歧。     

Land-use conflicts in coastal tourism and the quest for governance innovations

Based on media content analysis this study examines 213 land-use conflicts in Danish coastal tourism to understand the formats of land-use struggles and the methods used to manifest discontent. It contributes to emerging, but still under-investigated risks of overtourism and spatial degradation and it addresses who is active in conflicts, with what means they communicate, and with what results. A typology of issues that kick off conflict includes “Construction and rebuilding”, Change in land-use”, “Infrastructure alteration”, “Illegal activity”, “Landscape modification”, “Climate change” and “Access permission”. These are issues raised most frequently by neighboring residents and holiday home owners, followed by nature associations and public authorities. Institutionalized channels of complaint are most often used, while more radical forms, such as demonstrations, protest movements and vandalism, are rare. However, successful multi-modal campaigns and national energy planning are affected by tourism-related protests. Overall, the Danish planning system proves capable of accommodating most tensions, and the settled power balance in the planning systems largely continues, although planning is a target for remonstration and activism. The article discusses the participatory deficits observed. It informs protesters and government bodies alike, and contributes to the ongoing scholarly discussions about the nature of spatial development.     

Agriculture's 'multifunctionality' and the WTO

Are the agricultural policy reforms embodied in the Uruguay Round consistent with meeting domestic policy objectives such as providing adequate food security, environmental protection and viability of rural areas? This article examines the claim that agriculture deserves more price support and import protection than other sectors because of the non‐marketed externalities and public goods it produces jointly with marketable food and fibre (agriculture’s so‐called ‘multifunctionality’). Do these unrewarded positive externalities exceed the negative externalities from farming by more than the net positive externalities produced by other sectors? To what extent are those farmer‐produced spillovers under‐supplied, and what are the most efficient ways to boost their production to the socially optimal levels? The article concludes that there is little trade‐off required to meet domestic policy objectives on the one hand and agricultural protection reform objectives as embodied in WTO rules on the other.     

Long-run Relationships Between World Vegetable Oil Prices

In the international edible oil markets, there is believed to be high substitutability between vegetable oils and fats produced under different conditions. In light of this, we consider the question: what is the nature of the long-run relationships between vegetable oil prices? Long-run co-movements among oil prices are analysed, based on a multivariate cointegration model. The empirical finding is that most co-movements are consistent with the predictions of market theory. Prices of oils tend to be grouped according to their different end-uses. Some policy implications of a buffer stock scheme are discussed.     

Mix and sequencing of economywide and agricultural reforms: Chile and New Zealand

Once committed to economywide and sectoral reforms – stabilization, structural adjustment, and trade liberalization – and companion reforms of institutions, how does government best proceed? With what reforms in response to initial conditions, and in what mix, sequence, strength, and speed? This study examines what factors were most critical to success during transition in two early reformers. The economies of Chile and New Zealand have undergone seismic reforms, starting in the mid-1970s and 1980s, respectively. Comparative analysis of their reforms look at the prior conditions that induced drastic action and the policy choices made in each country. Though similar in many respects, differences in initial economic conditions and implementation led to dissimilar, even contrary results. For Chile, the outcome was a vigorous, recharged economy and agricultural sector; for New Zealand, the economy and the sector are lagging still. How policy choice and implementation, as well as simultaneity of reforms, affected the outcomes is the major thrust of the study. The preeminence of trade and macroeconomic policies over sectoral interventions, and in particular the strategic nature of the real exchange rate in allowing agriculture to compete domestically and internationally highlight the discussion.     

Land use change in Britain

Data on land use change in the UK and its constituent nations is variable in scope and quality, but has improved in recent years. It shows that the popular image of cities spreading across the countryside is a false one. In fact most new housing is built within existing settlements or in small rural developments, whilst more crop and grazing land has been turned over to woodland in the past 25 years than into housing. It also shows that market forces, taxes and subsidies have a rapid effect on land use decisions by developers, farmers and others, for example on what type of housing to build, what crops to grow and whether to turn farmland into woodland.     

Modeling preference heterogeneity in stated choice data: an analysis for public goods generated by agriculture

Stated choice models based on the random utility framework are becoming increasingly popular in the applied economics literature. The need to account for respondents' preference heterogeneity in such models has motivated researchers in agricultural, environmental, health, and transport economics to apply random parameter logit and latent class models. In most of the published literature these models incorporate heterogeneity in preferences through the systematic component of utility. An alternative approach is to investigate heterogeneity through the random component of utility, and covariance heterogeneity models are one means of doing this. In this article we compare these alternative ways of incorporating preference heterogeneity in stated choice models and evaluate the sensitivity of estimated welfare measures to which approach is selected. We find that a latent class approach fits our data best, but all the models perform well in terms of out-of-sample predictions. Finally, we discuss what criteria a researcher can use to decide which approach is most appropriate for a given data set.     

Macroeconomic Determinants of Private Label Penetration

Private label market share is growing. Europe, long held to be near saturation in private label share, is showing surprising strength. Eastern Europe's private label share has grown to almost 1 in every 5 dollars spent in food stores for private label, and South America and Asia are showing unexpected strength. The issue is to what extent branded manufacturers can expect private label to grow within a country. This article investigates the relationship between private label penetration within a country and various macroeconomic/environmental variables. The most significant variable was the level of retail concentration followed by the level of social and economic development.     

基于ELES模型的广东省农户农业科技需求能力分析

运用扩展线性支出系统（ELES）模型测算2007—2011年？期间广东省农户农业科技需求能力的基本判断标准,并对照农民人均纯收入的统计数据进行分析。研究表明,目前广东省农户已经普遍具备良好的农业科技需求能力,今后更应该重视的是如何激发出农户强烈的需求意愿,同时还要通过政策扶持进一步提高低收入户的需求能力和技术采用速率,从而促进农业科技发挥出缩小农民内部收入差距的作用。     

Poverty, Risk Aversion, and Path Dependence in Low-Income Countries: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia

In most low-income countries, rural households depend on mixed rain-fed agriculture/livestock production, which is very risky. Due to numerous market failures, there are few ways to shift risks to third parties. The literature has focused on what determines the responses of households in such environments. Of special concern are path dependencies in which households experiencing failure are prone to further failure and potential poverty traps. This paper estimates levels and determinants of risk aversion in the highlands of Ethiopia. We find high risk aversion and evidence that constraints have important impacts on risk-averting behavior with perhaps significant implications for long-term poverty. The results also suggest the possibility of path dependence and offer insights into links between risk aversion and poverty traps.     

FROM CONSUMER CHOICE PROCESS TO AGGREGATE ANALYSIS: MARKETING INSIGHTS FOR MODELS OF MEAT DEMAND

The presence or absence of structural change in meat demand is critical to marketing decision making. If change is present, marketing bodies need to know what underlies the change so that the most appropriate response can be identified. Marketing theory is considered as a possible source of more explicit models of demand which may lead to a better understanding of consumption patterns and structural change.     

African Agricultural Development: Lessons and Challenges

This paper reviews what has been learned from experiences of African agriculture and hence what policy lessons may be. Views of African agriculture over the last 130 years have changed from optimism to pessimism and at least halfway back again as the performance of the sector has fluctuated. Fortunately it seems the deep pessimism about agricultural prospects expressed in the 1980s and 1990s has receded. The performance of African agriculture since 1990 suggests that neither those who doubt that any significant advances are taking place, nor those who see advances in some remarkable but perhaps isolated cases of rapid transformation of farming and agricultural supply chains, have sufficient evidence – either from national data or small‐scale studies – to support their positions. Hence policy has to rely largely on general principles and historic lessons, rather than more clearly proven propositions. Policy debates over African agricultural development may sharply divide on some topics, but there is little debate over the importance of basic conditions for agricultural development of an enabling investment climate and the provision of rural public goods. Beyond these basics, the challenge is to remedy the failings of markets that deny most smallholders access to inputs, financial services and insurance. Here opinion divides between whether to return to public provision, as with fertiliser subsidies, or whether private and collective institutional innovations will be sufficient. Recent initiatives to test and scale up the latter look promising, but most have yet to be evaluated. If agricultural development is first and foremost about establishing the basic conditions for growth, then most countries in Africa may be better placed than they have been in the past. Given the many examples that show African smallholders investing and innovating when they have the chance, then there are reasons to hope that the modest growth of production and productivity seen in the last two decades may accelerate in the future – thereby allowing African countries to make the transition from agrarian to urban economies.     

The politics of multi-scalar action in river basin management: Implementing the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD)

Scholars of environmental governance are increasingly intrigued by issues of scale. Efforts to institutionalise river basin management represent a pertinent exemplar, as they aspire to strengthen hydrological vis-à-vis political–administrative scales of governance. The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) is one of the most ambitious policy initiatives worldwide to reconfigure water management planning around the hydrological scale of river basins. Whilst it is widely assumed that the WFD is rescaling water governance in Europe, few empirical studies have been conducted to ascertain how far this is the case, what scalar strategies and practices are emerging and to what effect. The paper addresses these open issues with a study analysing the multi-scalar actions of water authorities, water management organisations, local authorities and interest groups involved in implementing the WFD. It investigates how stakeholders are acting scalar from the local to the European scale and back to further their interests in the course of WFD implementation, focussing on the Wupper sub-basin in Germany. Drawing for conceptual insight on the human geography debate on the politics of scale and processes of rescaling, we demonstrate how all relevant stakeholders are increasingly working across scales to advance their interests but in very different ways, with different degrees of deliberation and to different effect. A typology of multi-scalar action is developed to interpret this diversity. The paper draws conclusions on how multi-scalar action is altering not only power relations between the actors but also the scalar configurations themselves.     

Farmers’ objectives as determinants of organic farming adoption: the case of Catalonian vineyard production

This article assesses the decision to adopt organic farming practices. We use Duration Analysis (DA) to determine why farmers adopt organic farming practices and what influences the timing of adoption. We extend previous studies by including farmers’ objectives, risk preferences, and agricultural policies as covariates in the DA model. The Analytical Hierarchy Process is used as a multicriteria decision‐making methodology to measure farmers’ objectives. The empirical analysis uses farm‐level data from a sample of vineyard farms in the Spanish region of Catalonia. Farmers’ objectives are found to influence the conversion decision. Moreover, farmers who are not risk averse are more likely to adopt organic farming. Results point to the policy changes that have been most relevant in motivating adoption of organic practices.     

Risk management in Canada's agricultural sector in light of COVID-19

The unexpected introduction and spread of COVID-19 has presented significant challenges for every aspect of Canadian society. Although the food and agricultural sector is positioned better than most, there are many risks that will need to be managed in the coming months. The suite of Federal-Provincial-Territorial Business Risk Management (BRM) programs delivered under the Canadian Agricultural Policy framework are meant to assist farmers in managing risks; however, there are no corresponding specialized programs for agribusinesses. The underlying structure of the BRM program was developed decades ago and certainly not with any thought to the possibility of a global pandemic. This article considers to what extent the BRM program and, more broadly, government programming will assist farmers in managing new risks. By default, the article is speculative in nature given that we are currently at the onset of the pandemic in Canada.     

Society's attitudes to and preferences for land and landscape

The relationship between society, land and landscape is deeply complex. Attitudes are reflected in behaviour, notably patterns of consumption through recreational activity, as well as in expressed preferences. Society attaches great importance to land. A large proportion of the population engages directly with it, through gardening and involvement in the management of allotments, community gardens and other public spaces. There is increasing evidence of the benefits of such engagement for individuals and communities. Society's attitudes and preferences have traditionally been dominated by expert or professional views, which have evolved over time and now place emphasis on everyday as well as special landscapes, and on urban greenspace and green infrastructure as much as on rural landscapes. The general public also seems to value the countryside as well as parks and green spaces nearer to home. Public attitudes are shaped by a number of different factors. Age, social and economic status, ethnic origin, familiarity, place of upbringing and residence, particularly whether urban or rural, are especially significant. Perhaps most important are environmental value orientations. At present, society seems to be polarised. At one extreme are older, more affluent, better educated, more environmentally aware people, often in social grades AB, who are often the most active users of the countryside and greenspaces. At the other extreme are younger age groups, ethnic minorities, and those who are in the DE social grades, who are often much less engaged. These groups have very different values and attitudes. But most people need to access and enjoy different types of landscape at different times and for different purposes, accessing what has been called a ‘portfolio of places’ that is particular to each person. It is by no means clear how the various factors that influence people's attitudes and preferences will play out in the future. Society may continue to become more detached from nature and landscape, and less caring about its future. Or there could be a rekindling of society's need to engage with the land and an increased desire to ensure that all sectors of society can benefit from green spaces and rural landscapes. This is likely to require interventions through education and campaigns to change attitudes and behaviour. Whether such initiatives can be effective in the face of competing drivers of attitudinal and behavioural change and over what timescale, may well determine how society's relationships with land and landscape evolve over the next 50 years.     

Emergence and influence of a new policy regime: The case of forest carbon offsets in British Columbia

The most significant carbon mitigation policy currently targeting BC’s forests is the Forest Carbon Offsets Protocol (FCOP) that outlines the rules regulating forest carbon offsets. By applying the Policy Regime Framework to the FCOP, this paper addresses the following specific questions: what is the extent of the policy change brought by FCOP, and what are the main factors that influenced and shaped this policy change? The paper concludes that policy did change: an offset regime was established and FCOP was adopted to steer the development of forest carbon offsets. It is the executive branch of government, and especially Premier Gordon Campbell, that was most influential during problem definition and the decision making around forest carbon offset policy. In addition, environmentalists and First Nations, by advocating for a conservation economy, and the private sector, by lobbying the government to prioritize their economic interests, also influenced the policy making process. However, the actual magnitude of policy change that occurred with the emergence of the forest carbon policy regime is quite limited. Apart from a few conservation and improved forest management projects that mostly benefited First Nations, very few projects have been successfully implemented to date. This limited policy change was caused by various economic, social and political limitations. In particular, the shift in government in 2011 that led to the decision not to implement a cap and trade program significantly reduced marketing opportunities for BC-based forest offsets. In addition, the negative public opinion towards the credibility and effectiveness of forest carbon offsets, the low international price of carbon, the high transaction costs and the lack of financing options strongly restrained their development.     

Rules, Policy and Rent Seeking: A Cross-border Comparison

The United States and Canada are similar in many ways, yet they have taken different approaches to agricultural policy. This paper discusses what affect the different constitutional arrangements have had on the development of agricultural policy. Constitutions can affect the policy bargaining process in several ways: they determine who has access to the bargaining process, what is the legal set of policy options and what is the admissible coalition. The two countries' Constitutions differ in where regions have access to the bargaining process, the use of the courts and the size of the admissible coalition. These differences have led to divergent policies, which are evidenced by the response to the recent drop in commodity prices.     

Sustainable development of forest resources in industrialized countries

There is no general consensus about what sustainable development means. We seek to clarify the meaning and utility of the concept by focusing on forest resources in countries possessing higher levels of per capita incomes. The meaning of sustainable development becomes complex when one asks what social goals are being pursued, what types of stability are permitted, whether amenities and commodities should receive equal consideration, and to what landbase the concept should be applied. A simulation/linear programming model of California's private forest resource is used to demonstrate that strict decade-to-decade ‘even-flow’ stability of production may result in lower aggregate levels of output over a prolonged planning period, with ending levels of the stock resource that are scarcely greater than when output is permitted to vary over the planning period. The model was also used to show that greater levels of output and ending stocks are possible when the land base for sustainability assessment is not a restrictively small geographical area or a single class of ownership. In the case of National Forests and other public lands, the application of the sustainable development concept is significantly more complex because of the importance of amenity values and because of the inherent conflict between development and the preservation of ecosystems in a pristine state.     

退耕还林政策执行差距——以县林业局角色分析为例

政策执行差距是我国公共政策执行中普遍存在的一种现象。以退耕还林政策为例,从县林业局在执行该政策过程中所具有的动力、协调权力、问责机制和能力四个方面剖析了产生政策执行差距的诱因。在此基础上,认为建构和谐的中央和地方分权结构,鼓励社区和民众的参与是缓解政策执行差距的重要因素。