当前我国滞胀风险与宏观调控背后的资本形成困境

当前我国通胀压力持续,经济增长放缓,面临"低增长、高通胀"的滞胀风险。除因国外因素影响外,我国经济体系中内在的资本形成困境也是导致当前局面的主要深层原因之一。本文对此进行了分析,并提出相应对策。     

中国经济滞胀风险的根源与防范探讨

当前中国通胀压力持续,经济增长放缓,面临“低增长、高通胀”的滞胀风险。究其根源,在于出口下滑与产能过剩、产权和分配制度的缺陷、人口红利消失、流动性过剩以及生产要素价格上涨。因此,必须采取综合性措施,既要防止通胀问题,又要避免因政策过分紧缩导致经济增长过快下滑,陷入经济停滞的困境。     

中国经济是否会出现“滞涨”？

本文在总结前人研究的基础上，通过计量分析预测未来三年我国GDP仍将保持9％左右的较高增速，CPI将在今年三季度达到本轮通胀的峰值，四季度将开始回落。本文认为中国经济在未来几年内不会出现‘滞胀”现象，一是我国尚处在发展的初级阶段，尚有经济潜力可挖；二是我国经济对外依赖度不高；三是政府财税收入增长较快，负债率在可控范围；四是中国政府拥有巨额外汇储备，可抵御外来风险。但是，要挚埸我国潜在经济‘滞胀”的风险，一是较高的通胀压力；二是逐步提高的劳动力成本；三是失衡的供需结构；四是动荡的国际形势。最后，本文提出防范和化解潜在‘滞胀”风险的四项政策建议。     

防止“滞胀”渐成宏观调控第一要务

经济增长停滞的同时通货膨胀却加剧——20世纪30年代带来美国乃至整个西方经济大萧条的“滞胀”会不会现身中国?中国的工业产能过剩从2005年开始进入集中释放期,投资需求增速已出现回落;同时, 结构型和输入型通胀未来几年又势难避免。在防止“滞胀”成为主要趋势的头等要务上,当前的宏观调控显然既缺乏经验又毫无准备。     

新自由主义经济下两次金融危机的启示

以20世纪70年代爆发的石油危机为导火线,整个资本主义世界陷入了高通胀、高失业、低经济增长的“滞胀”困境。面对“滞胀”,凯恩斯主义政策束手无策,新自由主义成为整个资本主义社会的新宠。金融自由化、减少金融管制在欧美以及许多发展中国家落地扎根。这些国家在实施新自由主义时面临的金融问题对我国现阶段的金融改革都具有十分重要的警示意义。     

抑通胀更需尽早预防经济滞胀

国际货币基金组织公布的数据显示．中欧和东欧部分国家、中东和北非国家、撒哈拉以南非洲地区CPI均明显上升。目前，我国经济不仅有通胀苗头，还面临经济下滑可能。这些问题的叠加，容易诱发经济滞胀。因此，对于我国来说．治理通胀是必需的。但通货膨胀问题并不是很严重．我们不能将通胀问题扩大化．更不能采取过度的紧缩性政策。否则．就会伤害实体经济。出现政策操作失误。     

抑通胀更需尽早预防经济滞胀

国际货币基金组织公布的数据显示,中欧和东欧部分国家、中东和北非国家、撒哈拉以南非洲地区CPI均明显上升.目前,我国经济不仅有通胀苗头,还面临经济下滑可能.这些问题的叠加,容易诱发经济滞胀.因此,对于我国来说,治理通胀是必需的,但通货膨胀问题并不是很严重,我们不能将通胀问题扩大化,更不能采取过度的紧缩性政策.否则,就会伤害实体经济,出现政策操作失误.     

观点

经济滞胀更可怕 中国最怕的不是通胀，而是滞胀。要防止就业解决不好而导致滞胀发生。就业问题难解决，扩内需、经济改革等关键问题就无法进行下去。中国经济增速如果仅为6％，那么就业难问题就会大幅出现，而且失业问题会因为失业的发生而加剧。     

控制我国通胀:数量型工具与价格型工具的比较分析

控制通胀可运用价格型和数量型两类工具。数量型工具能控制需求拉动型通货膨胀,对货币需求的利率弹性要求低,不直接影响实体经济的运行,而价格型工具则比较适于控制成本推进型的通胀,要求货币需求有比较高的利率弹性,今后我国可能出现内生性的中长期滞胀问题,如果以价格型工具控制通胀,可能导致我国经济加速滑坡并带来混合型通货膨胀。     

通胀与失业并存的政策选择

治理通胀与治理失业(或就业)的政策往往是相互抵触的.可我国目前的情况经常是通胀与失业并存.在我国有几百万的大学生、近千万的城镇劳动力、近亿的农村剩余劳动力需要就业.就业不解决,社会就无法安定,社会不安定,经济及社会就无法发展.所以,就业是一个更为重要的问题;而不太严重的通胀则是一个次要的问题.拉动就业的是投资.在我国目前发展阶段,消费是投资增长的源泉.     

Social benefit expenditures and stagflation: evidence from the United States

Stagflation refers to the terrible economic malaise associated with declining growth, hyperinflation and high unemployment. Unlike previous cost-push explanations such as an overheated labour market and oil prices, this article suggests that social benefit expenditures are a potential cause of stagflation. We investigate the impact of social benefit expenditures on stagflation in the U.S. over the 1950–2014 period by employing an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration, which was developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith. The influence of social benefit expenditures on economic growth and inflation and unemployment rates is estimated. The empirical results from the U.S. suggest that economic growth responds negatively to social benefit expenditures, while inflation and unemployment rates are both positively associated with social benefit expenditures. Thus, government-led rigid welfare could contribute to stagflation in the U.S. Instead of increasing people’s happiness, the over-burdened welfare system could push people into economic malaise. This stagflation risk shouldn’t be ignored. These results are important for U.S. policymakers and can inform other governments characterized by high levels of well-being.     

就通胀风险与通缩风险交替出现的困扰来探讨宏观调控的走向

近几年,产能过剩日益严重,经济运行面临通货紧缩的危险.这颇令人关注.另一方面,在产能过剩的情形下,旨在拉动经济运行的投资扩张仍在继续.按照常理,投资持续扩张有可能导致通货膨胀.因而,经济运行面临投资扩张和产能过剩并存,以及通胀风险和通缩风险交替出现的困扰.那么,这些问题的产生是否意味着宏观调控出现了什么纰漏?笔者拟就两大经济风险与宏观调控的走向作初步探讨.     

Stagflation is Back

Three decades ago, in a bleak stretch of the 1970s, an economic phenomenon emerged that was as ugly as its name: stagflation. It was the sound of the     

中国通货膨胀问题研究——基于菲利普斯曲线的三因素模型视角

当前,中国的通货膨胀压力不断增大,研究发现,中国目前的通货膨胀主要是由供给推动所致,且以经济"滞胀"为显著特点。因此,决策者应通过扩大产出来抑制供给型通货膨胀,避免使经济由"滞胀"转向"衰退"的轨道。     

Nexus between economic sanctions and inflation: a case study in Iran

Conventional studies have applied dummy variables to analyse the relationship between economic sanctions and inflation while we construct an index which is called Trade-Financial Sanctions (TF index). TF Index is a liner combination of indices which includes trade openness and foreign investment by applying the principal component model. Through the TF index and market exchange rate the impact of economic sanctions on inflation is analysed in the three phases of sanctions; free sanctions, heavy sanctions, and light sanctions. The results illustrate that the TF index decreases inflation when the Iran’s economy experiences free sanctions or light sanctions relative to when the economy is in heavy sanctions. Heavy sanctions create instability in the market exchange rates and widening the gap between the market and the official exchange rates. Furthermore, economic sanctions increase expected inflation among the people and drive higher inflation. Therefore, these results suggest that the government should work more seriously to solve the main obstacles of trade and investment inflows imposed by the economic sanctions.     

全球化背景下中国通货膨胀特征及化解

在全球化背景下对中国通货膨胀的产生及其对宏观经济的影响进行了剖析,认为中国通货膨胀产生的根源在于不合理的经济增长结构,其他诸如原油、粮食、矿产品价格的上涨以及美元贬值等因素对中国经济的影响不过是这一根本问题在全球化背景下所引发的连锁反应。因此,在全球经济陷入衰退的环境下,既要实现物价稳定又要避免经济衰退的根本途径在于调整不合理的经济增长结构,降低经济增长对出口和投资的依赖,使国内消费需求成为经济增长的主要推动力量。     

On structural stagflation

The theory of structural inflation explains movements of the money-price level via the variation of relative prices. The paper shows that this theory can be extended to provide a possible interpretation of the so-called stagflation paradox. The subject is treated both in general and with reference to economic development.     

中国GDP增长与CPI:关系、均衡与“十二五”预期目标调控

通货膨胀率和经济增长率之间动态关系的认识是宏观调控的基础,然而,目前在线性和静态的分析框架内未能揭示出通货膨胀和经济增长的复杂动态关系。本文运用1996—2009年GDP增长率、CPI与M2增长率的季度数据建立我国经济增长与通货膨胀的非线性动力系统模型(GDP-CPINLDS),揭示了我国最优的季度GDP增长率和CPI,以及零通货膨胀的季度GDP增长率。总体上,我国经济增长与通货膨胀处在次优化的非均衡运行状态,两者呈现出同向性变动的特点。最优调控实验表明,仅调节M2增长率不能完全实现"十二五"调控目标。文章建议"十二五"期间要以调控GDP增长为导向,以从紧货币政策为基础,配合多种调控手段,形成强有力的联合调控机制,以确保GDP增长率和CPI目标的最优实现。     

Inflation volatility,economic growth and monetary policy in Bangladesh

This article provides an overview of the trends and movements of CPI-inflation in Bangladesh since the early 1950s and examines the key issues in rule-based monetary policy for price stability, implying low and stable inflation, in this country. Under a fixed exchange rate system, inflation in Bangladesh was moderately high and volatile during the 1950s and 1960s. Since the country’s independence from Pakistan in 1971, inflation in Bangladesh has remained moderately high on average and highly volatile and persistent under a fixed-pegged exchange rate system or under a managed floating system since 2003. Using data from the early 1970s or earlier depending on data availability, the article undertakes both Granger-causality and the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) analysis with two models. The first model is comprised of such variables as inflation, the real interest rate, the real exchange rate and output growth, and the second model is comprised of the volatilities of money growth, real output growth and inflation. Then, based on the empirical findings, the article concludes that a rule-based monetary policy, namely monetary targeting or inflation targeting, remains appropriate for Bangladesh provided that it adopts a more flexible, if not freely floating, exchange rate system. The article suggests that the use of monetary policy to achieve multiple objectives under a fixed-pegged exchange rate system creates a time-inconsistency problem, reduces monetary policy credibility and makes it (monetary policy) ineffective in lowering inflation and its volatility. Low credibility of monetary policy in particular raises inflation persistence. Within the present monetary-policy framework in Bangladesh, the article illustrates how the fixed-pegged exchange rate system has generated money growth volatility in the presence of large-scale inflows of overseas workers’ remittances and readymade garments export earnings. This does not seem to be a concern of the central bank of Bangladesh (Bangladesh Bank); rather, it (Bangladesh Bank) pursues monetary-base targeting to keep inflation low and stable after considering economic growth. The consequent diminishing credibility of monetary policy has kept inflation volatile and persistent, which has adversely affected economic growth.     

Dynamic asset allocation and consumption under inflation inequality: The impacts of inflation experiences and expectations

Differences in spending patterns and in price increases across goods and services lead to the unequal inflation experiences of households (called inflation inequality). These differences then cause disagreements in inflation expectations and eventually have a significant effect on households’ asset allocation and consumption decisions. The asset allocation model in this paper explains how inflation experiences affect household investment and consumption through corresponding inflation expectations, which are characterized by long-term expected inflation, the impact coefficient of the expected inflation and the correlation between expected inflation and the risky return. Using China's economic data, the empirical results show that significant differences in inflation expectation arise from income gap, regional inequality, different inflation measures and economic sector spending differences. Using the estimated coefficients, the calibration results have policy implications that households need more financing channels to resist inflation, especially in rural areas and in the raw material sector.