商品期货价格的期限结构:理论与实证的回顾

商品期货价格的期限结构是指商品期货价格与不同的到期期限的关系。因为期限结构综合了市场上所有能够获得的信息和操作者对将来的预期,因此,它为套期保值与投资决策提供了非常有用的信息,从而有利于现货市场的风险管理。市场可据此调整现货的存货水平和生产率,同时利用这些信息来进行套利交易,并以此给期货合约进行定价。近年来,随着市场日趋成熟,期货合约的到期期限不断延长。但在大多数的商品市场中,这类期货的价格是以远期价格给出的,由于远期合约并不是标准化的合约,而且它的价格也不是以公开竞价的方式获取,所以,以远期价格给期货定价是不合理的。商品期货价格的期限结构理论主要就是要解决不同到期期限的商品期货的定价问题。一、期限结构理论的起源与发展(一)现货与期货价格关系的传统理论1930年凯恩斯提出正常现货升水理论。该理论认为在正常情况下,远期价格低于现货价格(即现货升水),因此,他假设套期保值者倾向于做空头,而投机者倾向于做多头。期货价格与到期期货现价之间存在一个正的风险溢价,它是对投机者承担的风险的补偿,而投机者只有在预期期货价格上涨的情况下,才会买进期货。但是,Dusak(1973),Bodie and Rosanky(1980)...     

商品期货价格的期限结构:理论与实证的回顾

商品期货价格的期限结构是指商品期货价格与不同的到期期限的关系.因为期限结构综合了市场上所有能够获得的信息和操作者对将来的预期,因此,它为套期保值与投资决策提供了非常有用的信息,从而有利于现货市场的风险管理.市场可据此调整现货的存货水平和生产率,同时利用这些信息来进行套利交易,并以此给期货合约进行定价.     

卖空约束下动量策略在牛市中的盈利性分析

众多实证研究发现,通过持有赢者组合多头和输者组合空头的动量套利策略可以获取显著的超额收益。考虑到我国A股市场卖空约束,选取沪深300样本股和中小板股票设置不同的对照组和投资期限,采用假设检验方法分析了2005年股改以来两次牛市行情中单一赢者组合及输者组合多头策略的盈利性特征,并检验了A股市场中是否存在动量套利交易的盈利模式。实证显示,即使不考虑交易成本,两种多头策略也都很难有显著的高于样本总体的收益率。     

现货市场波动与商品期货合约定价

通过构建商品期货合约定价模型,证明商品期货合约价格由资本市场系统风险溢价和标的现货市场特有(非市场)风险溢价两个部分构成.商品期货市场价格影响标的商品期货价格的前提条件是存在足够多的参与商品期货市场的交易者.当标的商品现货市场需求增加.在预期商品期货合约价格为正值的情况下,都将会使商品期货合约的价格上升,扩大交易风险并增加多头收益.相反,在预期商品期货合约价格为负值的情况下,需求增长引起初级产品价格上升将使商品期货合约价格的绝对值下降,减少交易风险和引起多头损失.如果标的商品现货市场需求减少,在预期商品期货合约价格为正值的情况下,将引起商品期货合约的价格下降,减少交易风险并降低空头损失.相反,在预期商品期货合约价格为负值的情况下,商品期货合约价格的绝对值增加,扩大交易风险和增加空头收益.     

大连商品交易所大豆压榨利润套利的实证研究

本文首次利用大连商品交易所大豆压榨利润,对大商所大豆、豆粕和豆油之间的跨品种套利交易进行了实证研究,研究结果显示,三者之间存在套利机会:利用压榨利润20日移动平均线的交易策略多头套利和空头套利收益显著为正,但利用5日移动平均线的交易策略只有空头套利交易收益显著为正,两种情形下,空头套利交易收益平均大于多头套利交易。     

一种基于残差的单品种期货套利策略构建及有效性研究——以铜为例

选取上海期货交易所沪铜主力合约2011—2015年日收盘价及20日均线日收盘价作为研究对象,通过对铜期货合约样本内的价格序列进行协整分析,并基于协整回归方程的残差构建单品种期货合约的统计套利投资策略。利用Va R确定交易阈值和风控阈值,分别构造策略一和策略二,并构造有色金属期货指数买入并持有策略作为这两种投资策略的比较基准。实证结果表明:策略二无论是年化收益还是夏普比率均高于有色金属期货指数买入并持有的被动型投资策略,且能获得超额收益,表明单品种铜期货合约投资的策略二是有效的。这为投资者构建一种新的期货投资策略提供了决策参考与方法借鉴。     

从紧货币政策环境下的云南省法人金融机构债券交易策略

<正>2008年以来,我国货币政策全面转向从紧,宏观环境的变化对云南省法人金融机构银行间市场债券交易产生了一定影响。云南省四家参与全国银行间市场债券交易的法人金融机构(富滇银行、云南省农村信用社联社、玉溪城市商业银行、云南红塔农村合作银行)积极调整债券交易策略,改善债券持有结构,增强资产收益能力。为了解上述机构债券交易策略变化,评估债券持有风险状况,我们对云南省法人金融机构债券交易策略开展了调研,有关情况如下:     

本次经济危机主要大宗商品期货价格波动性研究

本文在分析本次次债危机以来主要大宗商品价格变动情况的基础上,建立了ARMA和E-GARCH模型及ARMA和TARCH模型来描述本轮经济周期中石油、铜、铝、黄金、大豆和玉米等大宗商品的期货价格收益序列的波动性特征。自相关分析发现不同商品期货市场的有效性略有差异,原油和铜市场更为有效;ARMA和非对称GARCH模型表明,主要商品收益波动均具有积聚效应,原油和铝收益波动具有杠杆效应,坏消息对原油收益波动的冲击大于好消息,好消息对铝收益波动的冲击大于坏消息。     

浅析企业应收账款的最佳持有量

在信用交易背景下,企业应收账款的持有规模水平是决定企业在日常经营和商品竞争中成败的关键。本文从企业应收账款持有收益和持有成本相互权衡的角度研究了企业应收账款的持有水平,并对应收账款的最佳持有量进行了举例说明,以期为企业的信用交易行为提供参考。     

浅析企业应收账款的最佳持有量

在信用交易背景下,企业应收账款的持有规模水平是决定企业在日常经营和商品竞争中成败的关键。本文从企业应收账款持有收益和持有成本相互权衡的角度研究了企业应收账款的持有水平,并对应收账款的最佳持有量进行了举例说明,以期为企业的信用交易行为提供参考。     

融资融券和股指期货对中国股市的影响：国别经验和初步评估

通过比较部分国家和地区推出融资融券和股指期货对股票市场的影响,并就中国融资融券和股指期货相关政策法规设计对股票市场的影响以及股票市场可能出现的问题和风险进行初步评估,结果表明融资融券和股指期货能够在一定程度上提高市场流动性,且在推出初期可能会加大市场波动;但长期而言必将有利于市场的稳定;也会带来市场结构调整的进一步深化以及交易策略、产品等的创新;同时还将对风险监管、指数权重股的交易监管带来新的挑战,     

Speculative Futures Trading under Mean Reversion

This paper studies the problem of trading futures with transaction costs when the underlying spot price is mean-reverting. Specifically, we model the spot dynamics by the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck, Cox–Ingersoll–Ross, or exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model. The futures term structure is derived and its connection to futures price dynamics is examined. For each futures contract, we describe the evolution of the roll yield, and compute explicitly the expected roll yield. For the futures trading problem, we incorporate the investor’s timing option to enter or exit the market, as well as a chooser option to long or short a futures upon entry. This leads us to formulate and solve the corresponding optimal double stopping problems to determine the optimal trading strategies. Numerical results are presented to illustrate the optimal entry and exit boundaries under different models. We find that the option to choose between a long or short position induces the investor to delay market entry, as compared to the case where the investor pre-commits to go either long or short.     

The Empirical Implications of the Cox,Ingersoll, Ross Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

The one-factor version of the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross model of the term structure is estimated using monthly quotes on U.S. Treasury issues trading from 1952 through 1983. Using data from a single yield curve, it is possible to estimate implied short and long term zero coupon rates and the implied variance of changes in short rates. Analysis of residuals points to a probable neglected tax effect.     

VIX futures term structure and the expectations hypothesis

Tests of the expectations hypothesis reveal that the slope of the VIX futures term structure predicts the direction but not the magnitude of the evolution of the short-end of the curve, but predicts neither the direction nor the magnitude of short-term changes in the long-end of the curve. Relative value seeking spread trades, constructed to exploit such violations, deliver excess returns with annualized Sharpe ratios equal or greater than those of volatility-writing strategies deployed by VIX ETN's for a majority of the 32 spread trade combinations tested. I demonstrate that profits from beta-neutral variations of the spread trades, which are not compensation for taking on equity downside risk by design, are propagated by inflows of capital into VIX futures markets, after controlling for factors that measure changes in the availability of hedge fund capital, risk appetite, and momentum. At the heart of profits, and by extension the term structure anomalies, is a disproportionally elevated basis propagated by long VIX demand that enters the futures market through ETN channels.     

How important is the term structure in implied volatility surface modeling? Evidence from foreign exchange options

We claim that previously proposed parametric specifications that linearly approximate the term structure of the implied volatility surface (IVS) in option prices fail to capture important information regarding the expectations of market participants. This paper proposes a parametric specification for describing the IVS that allows flexible modeling of the term structure through a Nelson and Siegel (1987) factorization, recently proposed by Diebold and Li (2006) in the context of yield curve modeling. The specification is tested on implied volatilities from the over-the-counter foreign exchange options market, where contracts with long expiries are actively traded and thus the term structure dimension of the surface should be very important. We first show that the proposed volatility specification can consistently and remarkably improve our ability to describe the surface on any given day. We then establish the economic relevance of the incremental information captured by our proposed specification by showing that it can produce more accurate forecasts of implied volatility that can support long-term profitable trading strategies in the absence of transaction costs.     

Pricing the term structure with linear regressions

We show how to price the time series and cross section of the term structure of interest rates using a three-step linear regression approach. Our method allows computationally fast estimation of term structure models with a large number of pricing factors. We present specification tests favoring a model using five principal components of yields as factors. We demonstrate that this model outperforms the Cochrane and Piazzesi (2008) four-factor specification in out-of-sample exercises but generates similar in-sample term premium dynamics. Our regression approach can also incorporate unspanned factors and allows estimation of term structure models without observing a zero-coupon yield curve.     

Continuous overreaction,insiders trading activities and momentum strategies

The paper investigates the influence and explanatory power of aggregate insiders trading activities on momentum trading strategies. We find that insiders trading activities can predict cross-sectional returns and can strengthen the naı̈ve momentum effects. The risk factors such as size and BM cannot explain the strong momentum effects in our refined momentum strategies. We interpret our findings as that the continuous overreaction causes the mediate term momentum effects and over pricing. In the long term, these overly priced stocks will be corrected with passing time. The correction of over pricing causes long-term reversals.     

省思与规制:我国跨境期货交易法律困境及应对

我国推进期货市场"走出去"及国际化战略须以跨境期货交易法律机制构建为前提。文章通过厘定跨境期货交易内涵边界及监管正当性,省思主要法律困境及应对思路,提出应致力于跨境期货交易立法监管理念创新,确立跨境交易监管认同机制,提升跨境期货衍生品交易经纪能力,适度扩大衍生品跨境投资参与主体范围,逐步取消QDII投资品种限制,并从跨境期货交易运行保障、立法监管、风险控制以及解纷机制等方面建构系统法律保护体系,切实保障跨境交易整体性金融安全。     

A new strategy using term-structure dynamics of commodity futures

The term structure of commodity futures is important information for traders and investors. Traditional term-structure strategies are static; they tend to use the slope of term structure at a given moment. Instead, our trading strategy uses the change of term structure and generates statistically significant return. It also produces significant abnormal return in excess of the traditional two factors, i.e. the returns from static-slope strategy and daily momentum. Thus, its return includes orthogonal information or excess return that standard static-slope and momentum strategies cannot explain. This suggests a novel risk factor in the asset class of commodity futures or robust trading opportunities.     

Order Imbalance in the FTSE Index Futures Market: Electronic versus Open Outcry Trading

Abstract:  This study examines trading activities before and after the transfer of the FTSE 100 index futures contract from open outcry to electronic trading. Daily order imbalance exhibits strong serial persistence in the electronic limit order market, but not in open-outcry trading. Both excess buying and selling reduce liquidity. In the electronic venue, prior market movements barely affect investors' buying or selling decisions. Excess buy orders do not generate any price impact, but sell orders do. Positive imbalances are more strongly autocorrelated than negative imbalances. No trading elements, such as order imbalance, volume, or open interest, are associated with volatility. Moreover, excess buying decreases volatility. Such evidence suggests that the development and growth of electronic trading has changed the dynamics of trading activities in many important ways.