IMF救援方案的宏观经济绩效实证

“IMF的救援方案是否有效”是IMF改革,甚至是整个国际金融架构改革的核心问题之一。本文针对1982-2002年间,61个代表性发展中国家所接受的IMF附加一揽子条件的救援方案,对受援国宏观经济的影响从静态和动态两方面进行了较为全面的实证。实证结果表明:从静态来看,IMF救援方案在很大程度上还是一种短期外部失衡的调整方案,这种调整并没有对经济增长有明显的促进作用,对此分方案类型和分方案完成情况的实证结果基本一致;从动态来看,接受方案也并没有给受援国带来宏观经济和国际收支的长期稳定。     

论IMF与WTO对国际收支平衡案件管辖权之冲突及协调

IMF与WTO会造成国际收支平衡案件的管辖权冲突。现有调整IMF与WTO关系之协议仅具有框架性质，IMF与WTO应制定具体的协调程序与方法，亦可利用WTO贸易政策审议机制避免交叉条件冲突之产生。同时IMF应加强自身改革，以适应全球经济一体化之趋势。     

IMF和WB世界经济预测准确性的经验分析

本文首先考察1999～2007年期间IMF对世界经济和中国经济的预测数据,结果发现,IMF对世界经济的预测存在偏低倾向,对中国经济预测的悲观倾向更明显。其次,本文考察了世界银行的预测数据,结果发现,世界银行对世界经济的预测也存在偏低倾向,对中国经济的预测过于悲观。最后,本文比较了IMF和世界银行的预测,结果发现,二者在对世界经济的预测准确性上差别不大,IMF稍微优于世界银行的预测;二者对中国经济的预测均存在严重偏低倾向,世界银行对中国经济预测的悲观倾向更大。     

2009年全球经济继续萎缩

国际货币基金组织（IMF）警告称，全球经济今年可能萎缩1％，为二战来首度萎缩。IMF官员表示，经济成长预估面临“相当大”的下行风险，若这种风险增强，则IMF或需要再度下调其预估。尤其是发达国家的衰退更为严重。     

IMF：中国必须降低对出口的依赖，鼓励消费

国际货币基金组织（IMF）亚洲负责人5日表示，中国必须鼓励消费、降低对投资资金流入和出口的依赖，以平衡经济增长。     

浅析城市应急救援联动体系建设的问题及解决办法

构建以公安、消防、医疗为主体的城市应急救援联动体系是新时期建设和谐社会，积极应对各种突发公共事件的必然趋势。统计资料显示：中国城市化率已由1993年的28％提高到2008年的48．5％，随着我国城市化进程的加速，社会公共安全及突发事件能否高效、灵活处置是对我国社会发展水平的严峻考验。本文结合当前我国城市应急救援的建设现状及机制建设过程中存在的问题，借鉴国际社会紧急救援体系的发展经验，提出了我国城市紧急救援联动体系的建设策略。     

国际货币基金组织改革评析

国际货币基金组织(IMF)诞生50多年来，一直在成员国经济发展和世界经济的协调中扮演举足轻重的角色，而且IMF的目标也随着经济发展深入到更广泛的领域。在成立之初，IMF仅仅通过对成员国提供短期贷款来帮助调整国际收支。在布雷顿森林体系崩溃之后，IMF开始运用国际货币合作和有秩序的汇率安排来促进国际经济增长。到目前为止，IMF不仅承担着184个成员国宏观经济政策的监督并提供金融和技术支持，同时，还对世界上最贫困的国家提供援助，通过贷款、技术援助来帮助设计宏观经济政策体制。     

IMF：美经济或拖累全球

国际货币基金组织（IMF）首席经济师拉金日前说，美国的赤字、炽热的房地产市场和起伏不定的能源市场，都可能拖累全球经济增长。拉金说全球经济可望在今明两年都有4．3％的增长，不过愈来愈严重的经济不平衡构成“颇大”风险。     

加权投票制、投票力与美国的金融霸权

在加权投票制度中,投票人的实际投票力与其拥有的票数并不是线性关系。Banzhaf指数和Coleman指数可以用来衡量投票人的实际投票力。通过对国际货币基金组织(IMF)执行董事会成员实际投票力的计算发现,IMF的投票规则放大了美国的控制力,强化了美国的霸权地位。本文针对IMF投票规则的不合理之处,提出了改革IMF投票制度的建议。     

国际货币基金组织的改革动因及目标评述

本文从国际货币基金组织(IMF)的宗旨、职能以及运作机理出发,剖析了IMF职责与权能间的内生冲突,并从IMF的内部控制权问题、最后贷款人角色、对危机的预警和挽救功能、特别提款权的困境与改革以及IMF的监督和磋商机制等五个方面对国际货币基金组织亟需改革的动因和目标进行了较为全面的评述。     

Penetration and Post-infection Development of Meloidogyne Incognita on Tobacco as Treated by Rhizobacteria Pseudomonas Fluorescens Strain P-72-10

The bio-control potential of rhizospere bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens against plant-parasite nematode had been demonstrated. P. fluorescens had shown the effect to enhance tobacco resistance to root-knot nematode Meloidogyne incognita. Inoculation with P. fluoreseens in tobacco could lead to significant reductions in the number of juveniles that penetrated tobacco root and further life stage development of the juveniles. The number of juveniles penetrated into tobac- co root in treatment with P. fluorescens is significantly different from CK at 2DAI, 6DAI, 8DAI and 10DAI. Significant reduction and delayed development of juveniles that penetrated into tobacco root and treated were observed in treatment at 14DAI, 21DAI, 28DAI and 35DAI. In addition, P. fluoreseens treatment leads to a significant reduction in the number of eggs per egg-mass at 35 DAI. The results show P. fluorescens induced a continuously suppression on root-knot nema- tode M. incognita throughout their entire early infection phase of root penetration, subsequent life stage development and reproduction.     

On the Major Transformation of the Asia-Pacific Regional Structure北大核心CSSCISSCI

Recent years have witnessedsignificant changes in the Asia-Pacific regionalstructure featuring the shift in power balance among related countries as well as adjust-ments in their respective regional strategies. So what is the prevailing trend in thistransformation and what kind of regional order will likely emerge in the future？ To an-swer these questions, the paper tries to explore the following dimensions： the evolvingregional context, shift in power balance and power conversion, geo-political and geo-e-conomic developments and interactions between them, and evolving regional order. Asthe study shows, the broadening of regional geographical scope, the rise in the numberof actors involved, as well as changesin the relations among them, have combined tocast a pluralistic and complex flavor to the regional structure. While the power balanceamong China, the United States and Japan shifts, and power conversion is also occur-ring. China and Japan are paying increasing attention to their security roles, whereasthe United States under the Obama administration laid more stress on expanding itsgeo-economic clout. In spite of the intensifying geopolitical competition among China,the United States and Japan in recent years, a Sino-US strategic compromise-whichholds the key to regional geopolitics-isother front, some kind of geo-economicmore likely to take place in the future. On thecooperation will probably emerge. In the longerterm, it will be the geo-economic trend thatwill prevail over the geopolitical trend inthe region. Finally, the future evolution of regional order wiI1 mainly follow the eco-nomic logic, accompanied by the dilutionof its hegemonic and hierarchical nature.Hence, a pluralistic and complex regional community will emerge.     

The German Hanse and Bergen – new perspectives on an old subject

Abstract

The Hanseatic League and her kontors (trading posts) were an integral part of the medieval trade system in Northern Europe. Hanse merchants dominated many markets in this region and managed to maintain a monopoly-like role in towns like Novgorod and Bergen for many centuries. Consequently, one focus of historical research about the Hanseatic League lay on the mechanisms that enabled the Hanse merchants to keep that strong of a position for such a long time.

This article is part of the discussion about this topic. Based on Lübeck merchants with business interest in the Norwegian town of Bergen, the so-called Bergenfahrers (Bergen travellers), it will give new insights into the Hansards' economical and social organization. The three main points are (a) the integration of the Bergen market in the Hanseatic trade network as an intermediary trading place on the vivid East–West route of Hanse trade; (b) the importance of the Bergenfahrers within the Hanse merchants' economical, social and political networks; and (c) the structure of the Bergenfahrers network patterns in the late Middle Ages.

In addition to new insights into the important role of Bergen and the Bergenfahrers within Lübeck's and the other Wendish Hanse towns' trading system, this articles provides further proof for the usefulness of the methods of Social Network Analysis in medieval economic research.     

Organization and incentives in the age of sail

The British Navy in the age of sail was the most successful bureaucracy of its time. Its organization and incentive structures differed importantly from contemporaneous private sailing ventures, but closely resembled those of today’s large corporations. To induce efficient effort, the navy used a hierarchical tournament, in which sailors competed for higher pay that came with promotions based on relative performance. Promotion probabilities, the option value of future promotions, and the higher effort required of men in higher ranks and on larger vessels, combined to yield a highly skewed pay structure.     

For Better or for Worse? Local Impacts of the Decentralization of Indonesia’s Forest Sector

This paper quantifies the local impacts of mechanized logging on forest-dependent communities in Indonesia, before and after decentralization. A conceptual framework incorporates financial, social, enforcement, rent-seeking, and environmental impacts. Using data from 60 communities in East Kalimantan, the empirical results suggest that significantly more households received financial and in-kind benefits after decentralization compared to before. Many communities engaged in self-enforcement activities against firms both before and after decentralization. Post-decentralization, a significantly higher proportion of households perceived community forest ownership. There were few significant differences in perceived environmental impacts. Little evidence exists of a post-decentralization trade-off between environmental and financial contractual provisions.     

以资本管理为核心的银行治理综合评价指标研究

商业银行的特殊性体现在风险性、外部性和多重治理目标上，尤其集中体现在风险管理的本质上。风险管理日益成为现代商业银行的主体活动和核心职能，资本管理成为现代商业银行风险管理的核心。在整合EVA和RAROC指标的基础上。文章构建了以资本管理为核心的银行治理的综合评价指标，以求真实反映银行经营的成果，有效衡量风险收益和风险成本的对比关系，从而反映以资本管理为核心的银行风险管理的过程、能力和效率。     

Financial Reporting and Trade Credit: Evidence from Mandatory IFRS Adoption*

We investigate the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption on trade credit. We document that firms in countries that adopt IFRS receive more trade credit from their suppliers, consistent with improved financial reporting quality and comparability playing a role in facilitating informal financing. This increase is larger for countries with a low level of societal trust, a poor pre‐IFRS‐adoption information environment, and stronger legal enforcement. These cross‐sectional results suggest that the conditions under which higher‐quality information is made publicly available affect suppliers' decisions to provide trade credit. This increase is also larger for firms with greater exposure to foreign markets, a finding that highlights the importance of more comparable international financial reporting standards in facilitating cross‐country trade credit. We also find that IFRS adoption has a stronger positive effect on trade credit for firms with greater liquidity needs. Finally, we find that firms in countries that adopt IFRS also extend more trade credit to their customers. Overall, our results support the notion that financial reporting can have a causal effect on trade credit.     

Markteintrittstiming von Telekommunikationsdiensteanbietern

Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Studie analysiert für 87 Neuprodukteinführungen (NPE) und Auslandsmarkteintritte (AME) von Telekommunikations(TK)-Diensteanbietern in Deutschland, zu denen 42 Schlüsselinformanten in einer schriftlichen Befragung Auskunft gaben, (1) inwieweit deren zeitliche Eintrittspositionierung durch Marktcharakteristika und Unternehmensressourcen erkl?rbar ist sowie (2) inwieweit und gegebenenfalls unter welchen unternehmensexternen und -internen Situationsbedingungen deren Markteintrittstiming mit dem wahrgenommenen Eintrittserfolg assoziiert ist. Ein früher Markteintritt wurde dann realisiert, wenn die Wettbewerbsintensit?t im adressierten Gesch?ft niedrig und das Budget für den Expansionsschritt überdurchschnittlich ausfielen. Zwischen dem Markteintrittstiming und der Beurteilung des Eintrittserfolgs bestand ein nicht monotoner, umgekehrt U-f?rmiger Zusammenhang: Frühe Folger wiesen signifikant bessere Erfolgswerte auf als Pioniere und sp?te Folger, deren Erfolgsniveaus nicht signifikant divergierten. In einer Industrie, die durch starke externe Netzeffekte gepr?gt ist, fallen offenbar die Nachteile eines Markteintritts als Pionier oder sp?ter Folger st?rker ins Gewicht als die Vorteile dieser beiden zeitlichen Eintrittspositionierungen. Unabh?ngig vom Markteintrittstiming wurden NPE/AME von TK-Unternehmen als erfolgreicher eingestuft, wenn sie sich in einen Markt mit stark wachsender Nachfrage und aufeinander abgestimmt (re)agierenden Wettbewerbern mit qualitativ überdurchschnittlichen, abw?rtskompatiblen, erprobbaren und wenig erkl?rungsbedürftigen TK-Diensten engagierten.