Sustainable global automobile transport in the 21st century: An integrated scenario analysis

Transport represents a significant threat to long-term sustainable development, and is one of the fastest-growing consumers of final energy and sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, transport is heavily reliant on petroleum, a limited resource that is also associated with geopolitical risks to security of supply. Together, threats to the global environment and limited resource availability warrant a closer examination of possible pathways to a sustainable transport system. This study describes a sustainable automobile transport scenario based on the SRES B2 scenario, but with key demographic and economic drivers updated to incorporate developments between 1990 and 2000, and revisions to population projections. Multiple sustainable development objectives are incorporated, including: i) continuing economic growth, with a moderate reduction in disparities in income between different world regions; ii) maintaining a buffer of oil and gas resources to enhance security of energy supply, both globally and in vulnerable regions; iii) abating greenhouse gas emissions to ensure atmospheric CO₂ concentrations do not exceed double pre-industrial levels; and iv) ensuring global mobility demands are met, without resorting to assumptions about a large counter-trend shift to public transport or lower travel demand. We then explore the technological, economic, fuel production and infrastructure implications of realizing this scenario over the long term. This provides a number of policy insights by identifying critical developments required for the emergence of a sustainable global passenger transport and energy system.     

economic and environmental tradeoffs in agricultural sustainability: A Perspective

Concern for the economic and environmental impacts of production systems is at the heart of the debate on agricultural sustainability. Ideally, if a system is to be sustainable, it must also be economically viable, while not adversely affecting the environment. The appropriate balance between environmentally friendly systems and economic returns is not clear, as it depends on the period under consideration and hinges on the perspective used. Current evidence suggests that there are tradeoffs between achieving economic and environmental goals, at least in the short run, with given technology. Analysis suggests progress can be made by identifying agricultural systems and site-specific criteria associated with these systems, which eliminate the clearly unsustainable agricultural practices, rather than seeking a system that is defined as sustainable.The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the policies of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Economic Research Service, or the view of other U.S. Department of Agriculture or Economic Research Service staff members.     

The Political Economy of Energy Transitions: The Case of South Africa

This paper explores the political economy of energy transition in South Africa. An economic model based around a powerful ‘minerals-energy complex’ that has previously been able to provide domestic and foreign capital with cheap and plentiful coal-generated electricity is no longer economically or environmentally sustainable. The paper analyses the struggle over competing energy visions, infrastructures and political agendas in order to generate insights into the governance and financing of clean energy transitions in South Africa. It provides both a rich empirical account of key policy developments aimed at enabling such a transition and provides reflections on how best to theorise the contested politics of energy transitions.     

能源技术创新与经济理性增长的协同机制研究

以生态经济哲学为研究逻辑,认为能源技术创新与经济可持续发展是一种战略协同机制。构建了能源技术创新与经济可持续发展的研究框架,认为能源技术创新的能源效率系统与能源消费系统是构成能源经济可持续发展的两个子系统,必须整合两者与经济增长的协整机制才利于能源经济系统的良好运行。最后提出了相应的战略政策建议。     

Initial infrastructure development strategies for the transition to sustainable mobility

Within the Dutch transition policy framework, the transition to hydrogen-based transport is seen as a promising option towards a sustainable transport system. One aspect of such transition processes that is emphasized in transition management is learning about user behaviour and preferences. However, while earlier research on sustainable mobility acknowledges the importance of refuelling infrastructure, the question of how to unroll such an infrastructure and the role of user practices and user behaviour largely remains unanswered. In this paper we present an agent-based model to study the process of development from niche to market for hydrogen vehicles. We thereby focus on the role of users in this process and support our model by empirical data. Within this model the effects of different strategies for hydrogen infrastructure development on hydrogen vehicle fleet penetration are studied. More specifically, diffusion patterns for hydrogen vehicles are created through the interactions of consumers, refuelling stations and technological learning. The main result is that social network effects do influence the technological trajectory of hydrogen vehicles and thus should be taken into account by infrastructure developers and policymakers.     

基于旅游产出体系的景区可持续发展测评模式

旅游业对地区的影响是全方位的,单纯从经济和环境的角度去评价一个景区的可持续发展状况往往会忽略旅游业的其他重要影响,从而导致评估的偏差。且目前国内通常使用的评估方法多采用一维指标体系,并通过数学模型得出评估值,这样做的不足在于评估时缺少客观的参照体系,也不易明确指出本景区在可持续发展上存在的主要问题。本文在引入旅游综合产出概念的基础上,设计出一种根据一个景区的实际产出,对照需要产出和潜在产出进行分项评估和综合测评的景区可持续发展测评模式。     

The role of farmer cooperatives in promoting environmentally sustainable agricultural development in China: A review

Environmentally sustainable agricultural development is an essential part of the Sustainable Development Goals proposed by the United Nations in 2015. This article systematically reviews studies on the role of farmer cooperatives in promoting environmentally sustainable agricultural development and uses China as a case study to analyze the measures and function mechanisms of farmer cooperatives in promoting the adoption and scaling of sustainable farming practices by farmers. Farmer cooperatives in China influence farmers’ farming practices and benefits by not only serving farmers with various information and technologies but also supervising farmers’ production processes. Nevertheless, farmer cooperatives, both in general and in China in particular, face challenges in effectively promoting the adoption of environmentally sustainable farming practices. A few policy implications are proposed based on these analyses.     

Demand-supply coevolution with multiple increasing returns: Policy analysis for unlocking and system transitions

Currently, there is much concern about how to make a transition away from environmentally unsustainable activities to sustainable ones, notably in agriculture, energy and transport sectors. The success of such a transition depends on whether one is capable of escaping the lock-in of the dominant, unsustainable technology, which is usually due to multiple lock-in factors. Here, we present a formal model to study the likelihood of market lock-in in the presence of multiple increasing returns. The proposed framework describes coevolving populations of boundedly rational consumers and innovating firms. On the demand side, we focus attention on the interdependence of consumer preferences. We examine the impact of alternative demand side specifications on the direction of innovative activities of firms. On the supply side, a technological trajectory arises from the interplay of incremental innovation, search for a new product design and marketing activities. Our framework provides a general and complete account of increasing returns on supply and demand sides, as well as their synergetic interactions. The model is used to study a number of policy instruments aimed at escaping lock-in.     

An Environmentally Extended Social Accounting Matrix

Although the social accounting matrix(SAM) approach has been widely used in nationalaccounting and development economics, it still neglectsimportant information, among which are theinteractions between an economy and the environment. This paper environmentally extends SAM to capture therelationships among economic activities, pollutionabatement activities, and pollution emissions. Anumerical example of the environmentally extendedsocial accounting matrix (ESAM) using Chinese 1990data is presented. The multiplier and structural pathanalyses are applied to the ESAM for assessingenvironmental impacts of pollution-related economicpolicies. The analysis results show that an ESAM canbe a useful tool for environmental policy analysis.     

Business incentives for sustainability: a property rights approach

Public and private demands for sustainable development put pressure on firms to develop strategies that include environmental concerns. Environmental effects from products often appear as externalities, outside the legal boundary of the producing company. These companies often possess the best competence to optimise the total life cycle environmental performance of its products. They are, however, neither obliged nor stimulated enough by policy incentives to do so from a sustainable development perspective. The policy instruments used today are mostly of a control-and-demand type, i.e. they do not create sufficient incentives to go further than hedging over set requirements. Environmental concerns and tightened environmental policy parameters have mostly been associated with the notion of additional costs and thus a restriction on economic performance. However, since the mid 1990s, several papers have called for corporate win–win situations as well as instruments giving up-stream incentives for change, but not enough abatement of environmental impacts has emerged in reality. Perhaps this is due to the lack of proper connection between economic theory on the one hand, and incentive advocating articles and instruments on the other. We propose a concept for trading of product life cycle (PLC) emission rights, based on property rights and transaction cost theories considering the problem with asymmetric information over the value chain. The initial financial impacts from such PLC instruments are shown to be significant for the system provider, since emissions—and resource use—become production costs. This provides economic incentives to take an increased responsibility for information flow as well as initiatives for product innovations.     

An economic estimate of the effect of a waterside location on property values

Since the rise of the railway, and the later development of road transport, the economic value of inland waterways in the UK as freight carriers has steadily declined. The reduction in the economic importance of canals has been somewhat offset by their growing popularity as a recreational resource, and by the amenity value which they provide to that part of the population living in close proximity to them. Focussing on two case study areas, this paper uses an hedonic price model to estimate the economic benefits which residents gain from a waterside location. These benefits may have important policy implications for those bodies who own undeveloped land bordering waterways.     

Financial‐industrial groups in Russia: Emergence of large diversified private companies

Slovenia is the most developed transition country and it is believed that this is due to the gradualist economic policy which has dominated the transition period. But what does the gradual economic policy mean for further development? Was the choice of gradual economic policy a good decision for the short term only, and not for the long term as well? This article provides some deeper insight into industry–science relations and competition policy in the context of gradualism, and shows that the results of such policy are ambiguous, sheltering some market participants at the expense of others. The consequence might be Slovenia lagging behind other transition countries in the future. In other words, the gradualist concept that was seen as a rational choice for policy makers at the beginning of transition has come to its end.     

交通基础设施与中国区域经济一体化

利用2008年中国交通部省际货物运输周转量的普查数据,本文在引力方程的基础之上引入交通变量,以此来验证交通基础设施对中国区域经济一体化的影响。实证结果表明:(1)2008年中国省际贸易的边界效应处于6—21之间,这一数值与发达国家之间贸易的边界效应值比较接近;(2)交通基础设施的改善对中国的区域贸易产生了显著的正向影响;(3)交通基础设施越发达,则边界效应越低,说明交通基础设施促进中国区域贸易量的增加主要是促进了省际之间的贸易增加。所有这些均表明交通基础设施的改善对区域经济一体化的促进作用。     

Regional and environmental impacts of expanding the heavy duty vehicle charge to the secondary road network in Austria

In road freight transport a particularly large share of the total social costs generated is not borne by road users. To correct for this, many European countries use pricing instruments specifically targeted at heavy duty vehicles, so far targeted almost exclusively at the primary road network. In line with the overall EU objective of greening the transport sector, we discuss the possibility of expanding the road charging system to a more comprehensive, area-wide one. The degree to which peripheral or disadvantaged regions are hit over-proportionally by such a measure remains an open question in the literature on heavy duty vehicle road pricing. We combine an input–output and a computable general equilibrium approach to analyse the case for Austria. We find that while it is not the sectors of highest economic importance in the periphery regions that are hit by the charge, those sectors that are hit are those which are relatively more important in peripheral regions (with up to a twofold share in value added) and for whom production price impacts tend to be relatively strong. The short term consumer price effect of extending the current primary road network charges to the secondary network is found not to exceed 0.15%. In terms of the principles of sustainable transport we find that extending charge coverage is compatible with most core principles, the exception being the principle of regional need. In terms of environmental impact, for example, expanding heavy duty vehicle charges to the secondary road network reduces heavy duty vehicle kilometres in the overall network (and related emissions) by roughly 2%. However, in order to comply with the needs principle, suitable complementary transfer policies need to be designed and implemented for peripheral regions.     

微笑曲线与中小制造企业商业模式的转变

2008年,国际国内经济环境发生了巨大变化,国外贸易壁垒增加,国内生产成本的变化、人民币持续升值、国家金融和税收政策调整等,使得处于微笑曲线底部的中小制造企业面临严峻的考验。本文结合对微笑曲线的讨论。研究中小制造企业商业模式的转型,讨论中小制造企业可持续发展的方向。     

改革开放以来长江三角洲经济结构变迁与城际联系特征分析

文章对长江三角洲1985—2000年各城市客、货运量进行分析,总结出改革开放以来该区域空间运输联系的时空演化特征。长江三角洲客运量分布的廊道效应逐渐显著,货运量极化效应减弱。空间运输联系的时空演化反映了长江三角洲经济结构的推移特点。长江三角洲走廊经济凸显,成为区域经济发展的有力带动轴;区域内浙东北经济崛起,成为与苏南地区相抗衡的经济板块;长江三角洲区域经济发展天平已出现向南倾斜的趋势。因此长江三角洲地区应加快综合交通运输网络的建设;培育具有强大辐射效应的走廊经济;省、市之间协调合作,共同发展。     

东北经济区综合运输通道建设与区域可持续发展研究

东北经济区综合运输通道的形成与发展是社会经济系统发展的必然产物，各级地方政府与东北亚各国未来对区域经济发展的热切愿望与建设交通设施的追求必然对社会生态系统产生更为深刻的影响，因此，东北区综合运输通道建设与可持续发展将是我们的长期研究课题。本文在综合分析东北经济区运输通道发展现状与特点的基础，对东北经济区域综合运输通道对社会生态系统的下面与负面影响作了战略性与历史性的评价。进而从区域经济联系与国际合作开发的角度，探讨其未来发展格局及其对社会生态系统的可能影响。最后，提出了综合运输通道可持续发展所需注意的若干问题和建议。     

Exploring technology paths: The development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 2007-2020

By using socio-technical scenarios, we investigate how present policy choices may affect the development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden. One important choice for policy lies in the balance between general tax exemptions stimulating the market for alternative fuels, and funding of research and development more directly promoting new technology. The implications of this choice are illustrated with four diverging development paths until 2020. In the market-oriented scenarios, we illustrate consequences of breaking the dominance of entrenched technologies and demonstrating a growing market potential for alternatives, but also the risks with a large focus on first generation renewable fuels. In the technology-oriented scenarios, we point out the value of keeping variety among niches in this stage of the transition. In conclusion, if policy is implemented without taking the dynamic forces within the system into account, there is a risk that any measure leads the system into a dead end. But if policy strives to balance the development in different parts of the technological system while making use of various prevailing forces of change, a multitude of different efforts can contribute to the development of a more sustainable transport system.     

Growth versus equity: A CGE analysis for effects of factor-biased technical progress on economic growth and employment

With factor-biased technical progress described as labor-saving and skill-biased technical changes, there are concerns that technological innovation can lead to unemployment and widen inequality in the economy. This study explores impacts of factor-biased technical changes on the economic system in terms of economic growth, employment, and distribution, using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that technological innovation contributes to higher level of economic growth with productivity improvements. However, our analysis suggests that economic growth accompanied by skill- and capital-biased technical progress disproportionately increases demand for capital and high-skilled labor over skilled and unskilled labor. This shift in the value-added composition is found to deepen income inequality, as more people in higher income groups benefit from skill premium and capital earnings. Our results suggest that policymakers should prepare a wide range of policy measures, such as reforms in educational programs and taxation systems, in order to ensure sustainable growth.     

美、日住房金融体系的功能比较及启示

本文从金融功能的角度比较分析认为,美国的住房金融体系以动员储蓄为核心功能,服务于美国经济增长的总体目标,其顺利运行的条件是资产证券化、发达的资本市场和美元强势地位,具有不可复制性;日本的住房金融体系以风险管理为核心功能,其政策性金融通过引导家庭自动分化,对整个住房金融体系风险控制和稳健运行作用重大。我国经济经过30多年的快速发展后,微观主体和住房属性都发生了显著变化,要优化住房金融的功能结构,防范"住专事件"和"次贷危机",促进住房市场持续健康发展。