Stabilization, adjustment, and the poor

This paper attempts to survey the recent literature on the impact of stabilization and adjustment programs upon the poor and to consider some of the key issues in the context of a particular equity-oriented low-income country. Tanzania. After looking at some of the approaches of earlier studies, this paper analyzes the effects of restructuring policies, macroeconomic restraint, and strategic policy change. The author then reviews available evidence on the recent experience of Tanzania with external shock, efforts at stabilization, and relations with the IMF.In conclusion, the author argues that in order to better understand their impact on poverty we need more detailed analyses of specific countries' experience with different kinds of macroeconomic imbalance and different short- to medium-term policy responses. However, he does indicate with some certainty that when equivalent external blows impact upon very low-income countries, there must be a presumption that, other things being equal (including the distribution of income), the proportion of households and people pushed over the line into “absolute poverty” will be greater than in middle-income countries. The international community should provide external finance to aid these low-income countries in limiting the negative impact on the poorest.     

Energy, the Environment, and Innovation

In this paper we review the theoretical and empirical literatureon the role of policies in stimulating innovation that is designedto produce greener and more energy-efficient technologies. Firstwe review the theoretical literature on the role of purely environmentalpolicies in inducing firms to undertake environmental innovation.The conclusion is that for a wide range of policies and in awide range of circumstances one cannot prove that these policiesnecessarily induce greater innovation. We then consider theempirical evidence, which suggests that the effect of thesepolicies is weak but that the largest effects come in the longrun when, through learning-by-doing, firms better understandthe scope and potential for new energy-efficient technologies.Finally we consider the design of both environmental and technologypolicies, and show that the interaction of these policies iscomplex and warrants considerable further research.     

Globalization, Growth, and the Poor

This paper discusses the possible causal relationships and empirical associations between globalization and growth, growth and poverty reduction, and, finally, globalization and poverty reduction. We argue that globalization can contribute much to poverty reduction both directly and by accelerating growth. Second, the contributions of redistributive policies are very likely to be less than the contribution of greater access to markets, more competitive insurance and financial markets, and improved institutions to poverty reduction. The potential effect of greater international integration on poverty reduction, however, is limited by domestic policy failures in developing countries and also by continued protectionism, particularly in developed countries.     

Trade,FDI, migration,and the place premium: Mexico and the United States

Large wage differences between countries (“place premiums”) are well documented. Theory suggests that factor price convergence should follow increased migration, capital flows, and commercial integration. All three have increased between the United States and Mexico over the last 25 years. This paper evaluates the degree of wage convergence between these countries during the period 1988 and 2011. We match survey and census data from Mexico and the United States to estimate the change in wage differentials for observationally identical workers over time. We find very little evidence of convergence. What evidence we do find is most likely due to factors unrelated to US–Mexico integration. While migration, trade, and FDI may reduce the US–Mexico wage differential, these effects are small when compared to the overall wage gap.     

House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy

This paper assesses the links between money, credit, house prices,and economic activity in industrialized countries over the lastthree decades. The analysis is based on a fixed-effects panelvector autoregression, estimated using quarterly data for 17industrialized countries spanning the period 1970–2006.The main results of the analysis are the following. (i) Thereis evidence of a significant multidirectional link between houseprices, monetary variables, and the macroeconomy. (ii) The linkbetween house prices and monetary variables is found to be strongerover a more recent sub-sample from 1985 to 2006. (iii) The effectsof shocks to money and credit are found to be stronger whenhouse prices are booming.     

Options,premium contracts,and the EOE

Summary The article examines the development of options trading in Amsterdam from the seventeenth century to the present time. It shows how the market for traditional options, or premium contracts, was restricted by a number of limitations and how a new form of option — the exchange traded option, and a new options market — the European Options Exchange (E.O.E.), were introduced to overcome these limitations. It examines the first two years of operation of the E.O.E., analyzes some of the problems faced by the E.O.E., and looks at the future development of this new market.     

Money,Velocity, and the Stock Market

This paper provides a study of the relationship between money growth variability, velocity, and the stock market, using recent advances in financial econometrics. We estimate a trivariate VARMA, GARCH-in-Mean, BEKK model to quantify the effects of financial market and money supply instability. We investigate the robustness of the results to different definitions of money using monthly Divisia indices for the United States from the Center for Financial Stability (CFS). Empirical evidence supports significance of financial market and money supply volatility, and we conclude that Friedman’s money supply volatility hypothesis is alive and well.     

Modeling and predicting the development of the CES of Russia,Belarus, Kazakhstan,and Ukraine

The paper describes new approaches to the prediction of integration processes in the post-Soviet space and to the macroeconomic evaluation of the integration effect with the use of a cross-country model of structural interactions.     

Capital-market Liberalization, Globalization, and the IMF

One of the most controversial aspects of globalization is capital-marketliberalization—not so much the liberalization of rulesgoverning foreign direct investment, but those affecting short-termcapital flows, speculative hot capital that can come into andout of a country. In the 1980s and 1990s, the IMF and the USTreasury tried to push capital-market liberalization aroundthe world, encountering enormous opposition, not only from developingcountries, but from economists who were less enamoured of thedoctrines of free and unfettered markets, of market fundamentalism,that were at that time being preached by the international economicinstitutions. The economic crises of the late 1990s and earlyyears of the new millennium, which were partly, or even largely,attributable to capital-market liberalization, reinforced thosereservations. This paper takes as its point of departure a recentIMF paper, to provide insights both into how the IMF could havegone so wrong in its advocacy of capital-market liberalizationand into why capital-market liberalization has so often ledto increased economic instability, not to economic growth.     

Inflation, the credit market, and economic growth

This paper presents a model which predicts a negative, non-linearrelationship between the rate of inflation and rate of outputgrowth, as observed in many empirical studies. The model describesan economy in which credit market imperfections arise due toasymmetric information between lenders and borrowers. Withinthis environment, two types of lending regime are possible—arationing regime, where high and low risk borrowers are separatedby means of credit rationing, and a screening regime, whereseparation takes place through costly information acquisition.An increase in the inflation rate alters lenders' behaviourin such a way (by increasing the incidence of rationing or thelevel of costly screening, or by switching the lending regimefrom screening to rationing) that adverse growth effect of inflationis magnified. The analysis provides a basis for the empiricalfinding that growth effect of inflation may be strongest insome specific range of inflation.     

Devaluation, Capital Formation, and the Current Account

This paper re-examines the effects of devaluation and a rise in the rate of devaluation on capital formation and the current account in an optimizing monetary model of a small open economy with endogenous labor, investment with adjustment costs, and perfect capital mobility. It is shown that devaluation leads to capital accumulation and a current-account deficit in the long run and during the adjustment process, whereas a rise in the rate of devaluation has an ambiguous impact on capital formation and the current account depending on the relationship between consumption and real balances in the utility function. If consumption and real balances are separable or complements, then a rise in the rate of devaluation produces capital decumulation and a current-account surplus in the long run as well as on the transition path. These results stand in sharp contrast with Calvo (1981). JEL Classification Numbers: F41     

Trade,Social Values,and the Generalized Trust

The present paper investigates, empirically, whether global economic integration can lead to national social disintegration, as proclaimed by Rodrik. One can perhaps conjecture that a drop in the generalized trust in a country may signal a rise in social disintegration. Using the survey data on the generalized trust provided by the World Values Surveys, the present paper finds that, in general, there is a positive openness-trust relationship. However, when globalization undermines domestic income distribution, it will weaken this openness-trust relationship. There is also evidence of a threshold inequality above which the openness-trust relationship turns negative.     

Reflexivity,business cycles,and the new economy

Conclusion Markets are not efficient as that term is currently used in academic finance. Rather, markets are reflexive in that market behavior and the fundamentals reflect each other via a two-way, interactive feedback loop. Free markets remain reflexive unless market participants close the feedback loop, which they can do, and have done, to justify and perpetuate a boom. Practical finance theory was clear on the market behavior boom-bust cycles generate, but it was silent regarding the cause of such cycles. Austrian business cycle theory, on the other hand, provides a clear theoretical explanation of the cause and effects of business cycles. By utilizing both theories in a unified manner it is possible to track each stage of a business cycle, which was demonstrated in an analysis of the recent new economy business cycle. Such an approach could be enormously beneficial to both academicians and practitioners during the next business cycle. A Second Vice President of the General Star Management Company, a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway. The opinions expressed in this paper are mine, and do not necessarily represent the views of General Star Management Company or Berkshire Hathaway.     

Economic Organization, Innovation Systems, and the Internet

How can public policy best promote successful innovation inthe Internet sector? This paper creates a typology of differenttypes of Internet software firms. Institutions associated withthe ‘Silicon Valley Model’ are a strong driver ofsuccess for some key Internet technologies. However, patternsof human-resource development and knowledge management varywidely across Internet technologies, necessitating the developmentof very different commitments between managers and employees.Institutional frameworks associated with ‘organized’economies, such as Germany or Japan, might provide superiortool-kits to help some types of Internet firms to innovate.Furthermore, our analysis suggests that the creation of institutionalincentives is not the only way to promote patterns of technologicallyintense innovation associated with Silicon Valley. Technologicalstrategies of dominant firms are often equally important. Regardlessof institutional environment, the development of entrepreneurialsoftware firms can be strongly influenced by the activitiesof large firms working within core network telecommunicationtechnologies.