The Return of the State: Neocollectivism,Agrarian Politics and Images of Technological Progress in the MAS Era in Bolivia

The Movement towards Socialism (MAS) party promised to break with neoliberal politics when it rose to power in Bolivia in 2006. Using the concept of neocollectivism to characterize MAS agrarian politics, this paper examines one of its key instruments for achieving rural development: the state enterprise EMAPA. This state company, which supports small producers, envisions a new agrarian structure of production and commercialization, one that will break the power of the Santa Cruz–based agro‐industrial elite. Drawing on a discussion of the mechanisms of governance employed by this state entity, we argue that new complexities in state–civil society relations and a low state capacity have constrained its ability to shift power relationships between the state and the agro‐industrial elites. Instead of reducing the dependency of small producers on agro‐industrial capital, the Bolivian state has increased it, thereby undermining its goal of redistribution. The paper also analyses different moments of politicization and depoliticization in the intervention process arising from the demand for political change, as well as for technically efficient and profitable agricultural production.     

Floods,food security,and coping strategies: Evidence from Afghanistan

In this paper, we assess the long‐term effect of floods on food security (as measured by calorie and micronutrient consumption) by applying an instrumental variable approach to data from the Afghanistan National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment survey. To identify the determinants of this effect, we also estimate how floods affect per capita yearly household income and poverty status. We find that exposure to flooding during a 12‐month period decreased daily calorie consumption by approximately 60 kcal while increasing the probability of iron, vitamin A, and vitamin C deficiency by 11, 12, and 27 percentage points, respectively. Controlling for price shocks and income only marginally reduces this flood effect on food security, suggesting that impaired livelihoods (rather than price hikes) are its primary driver. We further determine that exposure to this natural disaster decreases income by about 3% and makes flood‐affected households about 3 percentage points more likely to be poor. Lastly, we show that experience of floods is strongly and significantly associated with lower diet quality and quantity, and with engaging in consumption smoothing coping strategies, such as buying food on credit and taking loans. These findings underscore the serious direct impact of floods on both diet and effective behavioral responses to such shocks while emphasizing the need for targeted micronutrient supplementation in disaster relief and food aid measures even after the period of natural disaster emergency.     

德州市降水及旱涝灾害变化趋势分析

该文基于德州11县市1957～2009年降水量及全市范围内的所有旱涝灾害资料,分析了年降水量及旱涝灾害变化趋势,年平均降水量555.1mm,年降水量呈减少趋势,结果表明,平均每10年减少18.3mm。年平均旱灾2.5次,旱灾呈增加趋势,平均每10年增加0.235次,53年降水量与干旱次数的相关系数为-0.39,呈负相关。年平均涝灾2.5次,涝灾呈缓慢增加趋势,平均每10年增加0.05次,主要是由于特大暴雨等极端灾害性天气气候事件增加造成的,53年降水量与涝灾次数的相关系数为0.67,呈正相关。     

湄公河流域洪旱灾害损失分析

受海洋气候及气候变化的影响,湄公河流域洪旱灾害频发。澜湄合作及中国-东盟合作机制是我国发展周边外交的重要内容。搜集整理近几十年来湄公河流域洪旱灾害事件资料,分析了流域洪旱灾害损失情况、成因及影响因素,结果表明:洪旱灾害是湄公河流域的主要灾害形式,流域4国洪水发生次数占总自然灾害次数的50%左右;洪旱灾害对流域各国的人口、交通、农业、经济等方面的影响均比较显著;气候变化是引起湄公河流域洪旱灾害的主要原因。     

我国玉米主产省自然灾害灾情分析

[目的]我国是一个多灾多难的农业大国,自然灾害给玉米生产带来重大损失,全面梳理我国各玉米主产省的自然风险,可为农业经营提供参考,有利于保障粮食安全。[方法]文章以玉米相对气象产量为研究基础,采用气象减产率和气象产量减产变异系数两个指标对各玉米主产省的受灾情况进行评估,使用灾损率和灾害异常指数对主产省主要灾种进行识别评价,最后通过灰度重心模型对水旱灾情的空间变动情况进行分析。该文选取地跨中国三大玉米带的11个玉米主产省份为研究对象,从全国和省际两个角度进行了对比分析。[结果]自然灾害对我国玉米种植的威胁较大,各主产省份的风险度高于全国平均水平,产量波动较大。从灾种情况来看,我国最主要的农业灾害有水灾、旱灾、风雹灾和冷冻灾4种,各玉米主产省受水、旱灾害的影响最为普遍,受旱灾的影响最大,且近年来其影响有扩大趋势。从空间尺度上看,我国水、旱灾害的空间分布呈东北—西南一线,和我国镰刀弯玉米带有很大的重合部分,给我国玉米种植的防汛抗旱工作带来了很大的挑战。[结论]自然灾害对我国玉米种植造成很大隐患,必须加强玉米防灾减灾体系建设,提升玉米灾情综合防控能力。     

Discipline,Governmentality and ‘Developmental Patrimonialism’: Insights from Rwanda's Pyrethrum Sector

An ongoing academic debate examines the implications of ‘developmental patrimonialism’ for African citizens. Rwanda is a key case study in this debate, with proponents of developmental patrimonialism and ‘party capitalism’ arguing that companies owned by the ruling party or the military play positive roles in economic development. This debate often focuses on macro‐level, elite politics. This paper instead uses a Foucauldian lens to examine the micro‐level politics of pyrethrum production in Rwanda, which is managed by a military‐owned company. The company utilizes incentive‐based governmental strategies, in line with state discourses, in addition to punitive, disciplinary regimes. The paper demonstrates that state agricultural strategies depend on multiple factors, including multi‐scale political tensions between the ruling party's desire for control and its discourse of ‘entrepreneurship’.     

怎样解决中国4大水问题

针对中国水资源面临的洪涝灾害、水资源紧缺、水土流失与生态变化和水污染严重4大问题，提出解决中国水资源问题的对策：给洪水以出路，建设节水型社会，充分发挥大自然的自我修复能力，发展绿色经济。     

基于ArcGIS的山西省暴雨灾害风险评估

选取山西省109个气象站1988—2018年气象资料,结合层级分析法和专家打分法,构建了山西省暴雨风险评估模型,并利用ArcGIS对山西暴雨风险进行评估。结果表明:山西省大部分地区年暴雨量占年降水量的比例都超过了10%,说明暴雨作为山西降水量的主要来源。山西南部大部分地区及中部吕梁、阳泉、太原地区处于高风险区,发生暴雨灾害的风险较大发生;北部大同、朔州地区处于低风险区,发生暴雨灾害的风险较小。实时开展暴雨灾害的危险性评价,有助于完善当地地质灾害气象风险评估模型,为地方政府制定防灾减灾措施提供依据。     

论明清时期苏北里下河自然环境的变迁

明清时期，黄、淮洪水屡屡倾泻苏北里下河。水走沙停，里下河地区的河湖港汉日趋淤塞，并最终导致射阳湖的消失。里下河自然环境亦因此而完成了从泻湖到平畴的巨大变迁，而自然环境的变迁又进一步加剧了水灾的肆虐性。水灾与自然环境变迁交相作用，将里下河引入赤贫的深渊。     

广东省政策性农业保险巨灾基金测算及管理模式分析

2012我国出台了《农业保险条例》,为我国政策性农业保险提供了法律保障,也为政策性农业保险发展奠定了基础。广东是农业自然灾害频发的地区,主要农业自然灾害风险包括热带气旋、洪涝灾害等,这些自然灾害给农业生产带来巨大损失,急需建立完善的巨灾损失风险分担机制。巨灾基金是分散巨灾风险的重要形式,国内部分地区,如：上海和浙江等地都建立农业政策性衣业保险巨灾基金。本文在分析广东农业风险的基础上探讨了广东省政策性农业保险巨灾基金的规模测度,同时分析了其管理模式。     

三峡库区地质灾害防治保险制度研究

文章分析了三峡库区地质灾害的发展趋势以及三峡库区蓄水175米以上时地质灾害防治工程面临的困境,提出以市场为依托,以风险利益为纽带,以保险作为手段建立地质灾害防治保险以及地质灾害防治工程环境责任保险,通过保险机制的作用和制度安排,达到减轻国家进行地质灾害防治时所面临的财政困境问题。     

Grain Marketing in Africa Under Conditions of Structural Adjustment

Agricultural marketing privatization has been a central feature of recent structural adjustment recommendations. This paper discusses approaches to the privatization of grain marketing and examines, in particular, possible future roles for state grain marketing agencies under a liberalized system. Steps which could be taken by governments to facilitate the introduction of new marketing policies are identified.     

Dragon Head Enterprises and the State of Agribusiness in China

This paper examines the political trajectory of agribusiness firms called ‘dragon head enterprises’ in China's ongoing agri‐food transformations. It starts from the premise that state and private elites in China are working together to consolidate a robust domestic agribusiness sector, as both an arena for national‐level rural and economic development, and a new frontier for access to resources and markets abroad. Through analyses of policy documents, market share data and ethnographic materials, I explore the organization and operation of dragon heads in the pork sector. My findings reveal that agribusiness development in China's pork sector is largely domestic, has a mixed state–private form and tends to marginalize the foreign‐based TNCs that have been the most powerful actors in the global agri‐food system to date. I argue that China is not only a destination for ‘external’ transnational capital, but also a site of agribusiness development in its own right. This has important implications for analysing capitalist transformations and for engaging global agri‐food politics.     

The politics of agrarian change in Bolivia's soy complex

This paper analyses the politics of agrarian change in Bolivia in the context of the development and expansion of the soy complex in Santa Cruz. It attempts to contribute to a better understanding of the nature and role of the state in relation to agrarian change through what is referred to here as the state–society–capital nexus. From an “agrarian” to a “productive” revolution in the countryside, this paper situates the rise of the Movement Toward Socialism (Movimiento al Socialismo, MAS) to state power and its ability to maintain control over the state apparatus by balancing both accumulation and legitimation interests through its neo‐extractivist development strategy. As extractivist rents fall with the commodities bust and smallholders' exclusion becomes more apparent, the MAS' overextension in facilitating capital accumulation is beginning to show signs of a legitimacy crisis. The politics of agrarian change remain as contested as the dynamics within the state–society–capital nexus.     

农业洪涝灾害研究进展

[目的]通过对农业洪涝灾害研究使用的数据源的分析,明确农业洪涝灾害研究的现状,归纳农业洪涝灾害研究的技术与方法,分析农业洪涝灾害未来研究方向。[方法]文章以农业洪涝灾害研究所使用数据源作为索引,对基于不同数据源开展的农业洪涝灾害研究进行概述。[结果]从农业洪涝灾害研究所涉及的数据源来分析,主要包括气象水文数据、遥感数据和统计数据,从农业洪涝灾害研究所涉及的内容来分析,主要包括洪涝灾害监测、风险预警和风险评估等3个方面的内容。[结论](1)我国农业洪涝灾害研究主要为区域和小流域洪涝灾害监测和风险评估,河流、暴雨和气候与洪涝灾害、自然灾害和社会要素的洪涝灾害以及水文模型、气候模型、土壤湿度等基础研究。通过不同研究方法研究洪涝灾害风险,高度重视洪涝灾害风险管理;(2)已经形成“天—空—地”一体化洪涝灾害立体遥感监测体系,但基于遥感数据开展的农业洪涝灾害研究,主要集中在洪涝灾害监测领域,格局分析以及预警评价的研究相对薄弱;(3)农业洪涝灾害风险预警主要从脆弱性、影响性、适应性等角度对风险进行分析,得到洪涝灾害综合风险区划并进行预警;(4)地理信息系统技术是农业洪涝风险评价中的热门方法;(5)农业洪涝灾害的评估体系缺乏统一的洪涝灾害风险理论模型与评估框架;(6)我国农业洪涝风险定量评估研究较少。     

三峡库区地质灾害防治社会效益评价框架设计

文章在三峡库区地质灾害防治总体规划和地质灾害防治项目社会效益评价理论研究的基础上 ,结合三峡库区地质灾害防治工程项目的特点 ,设计了地质灾害防治工程项目社会效益评价的内容 ,一是评价国家投资 40亿元进行地质灾害防治对保障库区人民生命安全的评价 ;二是地质灾害防治工程对减少水库淤积量的评价 ;三是地质灾害防治工程对三峡水库移民区社会影响分析。并提出了评价方法。     

Tracking farmland investment in Australia: Institutional finance and the politics of data mapping

Tracking farmland purchases is central to interpreting transnational finance's growing power in agrarian restructuring. Australia's public Register of foreign land ownership reveals little about agrarian change, however. In presenting the first comprehensive mapping of farmland purchases made between 2008 and 2020, this paper examines the ways that financial investments are altering farm ownership patterns in Australia. First, we show that most foreign owned land has been purchased by only 10 pastoral companies, which are implicated in speculative development activities. Second, foreign investment in cropping and horticulture is more significant than it appears in the Register, with investments in agricultural infrastructure increasingly driving land use change. Third, we illustrate the deepening entrenchment of institutional finance. By engaging with the findings from our dataset as well as with the politics of data that have shaped the availability of information, the paper progresses understandings of the financialization of farmland in both its material and ideational aspects.     

‘Freedom from Poverty is Not for Free’: Rural Development and the Microfinance Crisis in Andhra Pradesh,India

Within neoliberal development discourse, the poor are represented as entrepreneurial subjects for whom integration into formalized financial systems can facilitate their escape from poverty. This paper examines how the 2010 microfinance crisis in Andhra Pradesh reveals significant fault lines that underlie this narrative. It argues that the crisis of microfinance in Andhra Pradesh needs to be placed within the context of severe agrarian dislocations stemming from the impact of trade liberalization, drought cycles and a transformation of rural social relations. The contradictions are most strikingly represented in increasing rural differentiation and a generalized crisis of social reproduction among land‐poor farmers and landless labourers. A massive influx of microfinance – driven by both state‐operated programmes and private‐sector institutions leveraged with cross‐border financial flows – found a ready clientele among various agrarian classes seeking to bolster consumption and roll over debt in conditions of significant uncertainty and distress. Yet in banking on this vulnerability, microfinance institutions socialized the contradictions of rural Andhra Pradesh and have ultimately been thrown into limbo through the unleashing of political and social forces unforeseen in neoliberal narratives of agrarian change.     

Risk communication,women’s participation and flood mitigation in Vietnam: An experimental study

Flood risk management has become important more than ever, because an escalating threat of unpredictable and extreme weather is affecting flood-prone communities. People-centred risk communication has been proposed as an effective strategy that can stimulate people to protect themselves against flood risks. However, little research with a sound theoretical underpinning has been done to examine the effectiveness of such a strategy in developing countries. We use a field experiment to analyse how risk communication can influence households’ intentions to implement mitigation measures. Our results show that communicating about the risk of floods and how to cope with floods significantly increased both threat and coping appraisals, and thereby motivated households to take more non-structural measures. While formal risk communication had certain direct effects on mitigation intention, informal risk communication percolated through psychological variables. Risk communication should focus on coping capacities for financial measures and address the problems of wishful thinking and disaster subculture of flood-prone households. Furthermore, women’s participation in risk communication did not change the intentions to take mitigation measures of the male household heads in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta.     

Public support effect on natural disaster management: A case study of ice storms in forests in Slovenia

In the last decade Slovenia has experienced more frequent natural disasters in forests. The most severe and widespread one that affected Slovenian forests, which cover more than a half of Slovenian territory, was a large-scale ice storm in early February 2014. This study aims to investigate the effect of the public support on the recovery of forest farms affected by the 2014 ice storm. Analyses focus particularly on the ability of Slovenian forest farms’ income recovery in a short-time period. The economic resilience of forest farms in the absence of forest disaster payments due to the absence of legal certainty for disaster aid in 2014 and 2015 provides an interesting framework for identifying the income effect of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) payments. The Farm Accountancy Data Network has been used with applied statistical and regression methods to estimate the public support effect on selected woodland area size samples. Results suggest a positive effect of CAP payments on farm income recovery. The magnitude of the effect is high and significant for the less favoured area and disaster payments that were given for farm production loss in the 2013 drought. Although the magnitude of the effect is weak, investment payments show a significant positive effect on farm income recovery for all studied forest farm samples.