Major government customers and stock price crash risk

This paper studies whether government’s participation in product market, as a customer, affects supplier firms’ stock price crash risk. Using a sample of U.S. firms from 1980 to 2015, we find robust evidence that the presence of major government customers is associated with a lower level of stock price crash risk for supplier firms. Further, we show that government customers can lower suppliers’ crash risk by imposing monitoring activities on suppliers and/or reducing suppliers’ operational risk, leading to a reduction in supplier managers’ bad news hoarding behavior. Overall, our results indicate that government spending, as an important public policy, can significantly affect shareholders’ value by mitigating stock price crash risk.     

What role for social scientists in risk expertise?

When it comes to risks – health and environmental risks, like those linked to the use of nanotechnologies, pesticides, etc. – three main groups of actors are easily identified, brought together through boundary organisations such as environmental and sanitary risk agencies: the natural and technical scientists, who provide their expertise to assess risks (especially toxicologists, epidemiologists and microbiologists); the policy makers, who take decisions regarding risk management and risk regulation; the lay public, who are more and more involved in participatory frameworks. Sometimes three other groups of actors are added: the ‘economists’ who can for instance conduct cost–benefit assessments or multi-criteria analyses (especially ecological economists, public economists, political economists and social economists); the ‘philosophers’/‘ethicists’ who can use ethics to highlight moral choices and responsibilities in face of risks; and the ‘jurists’/‘legal experts’ who can justify authorisation or interdiction according to law. Inversely, there is a group of actors which is not clearly identified, that of social scientists, even though a considerable quantity of social science knowledge on risk has been produced. Why is there such a discrepancy? This article, based on a critical review of the literature, aims to make sense of the fuzziness surrounding the involvement of social scientists when it comes to risk expertise. The article shows that one reason for this puzzling situation is to be found in the gap between what social scientists often want to do when they are called in as risk experts and what natural scientists and public policy makers actually expect from them.     

People’s responses to risks of electromagnetic fields and trust in government policy: the role of perceived risk,benefits and control

Trust in government policy affects the way people perceive and handle risks. In our study, we investigated the relationships between trust in government policy regarding electromagnetic fields (EMF), perceived risk and perceived benefits of public and personal EMF sources, perceived control over exposure to EMF and responses to the possible EMF health risk (e.g. protest against placement of mobile phone base stations or power lines, or taking own measures against EMF exposure). Previous research indicated that perceived risk and benefits mediate the relationship between trust and people’s risk responses. Additionally, we suggest that perceived control over EMF exposure affects the relation between trust in government policy and perceived risk, and, consequently, the risk responses. We performed a survey among the Dutch population (n?=?1009), which contained questions about risk responses to EMF, perceived risk and benefits of several EMF sources, trust in government policy and perceived control over EMF exposure. Comparing public EMF sources, i.e. power lines and mobile phone base stations, to personal EMF sources, i.e. microwave ovens and cordless and mobile phones, we tested our hypotheses. Variations in risk responses to both public and personal EMF sources were mainly explained by risk perception. In addition, perceived risk partially mediated the relationship between trust in government policy and risk responses. For public sources, perceived control over exposure weakened the negative relationship between trust and perceived risk. We conclude that, especially in people with low perceived control, a lack of trust in government policy may enhance perceptions of health risks, thereby increasing their inclination for risk responses.     

A Relational Theory of Risk: a Case Study of the Asian Longhorned Beetle Infestation in Worcester,MA

Abstract

The rise of globalization and global increases in temperature have prompted the spread of invasive species, which poses a major threat to the ecosystem benefits provided by urban forests. Stakeholders such as urban residents, policy-makers, and forestry industry professionals deem these risks differently because they place value on threatened goods and services at different spatial and temporal scales. This article will use the frameworks of relational risk theory and relational place-making to connect ‘risk objects’ and ‘objects at risk’ to better understand how relationships of risk shape responses to threats to the environment. The data in this study comes from Worcester, MA, where discovery of the Asian Longhorned Beetle prompted the United States Department of Agriculture to remove 35,000 trees from streets and backyards in the quarantine zone. The three different stakeholder groups that were targeted for data collection were green industry representatives, government decision makers, and residents. Green industry representatives, decision makers, and residents were interviewed while additional residents responded to a survey. The results showed that greater understanding of the different objects and places at risk removed misconceptions between different stakeholders. Understanding is increased when each stakeholder recognizes the different spatial scales of the objects at risk. This improvement of transparency can lead to better communication of the variety of risks posed by invasive species and a faster and more unified response to the threats from invasive species or other natural disasters.     

‘RE‐OPENING THE BLACK BOX’: THE STORY OF IMPLEMENTING A RISK ANALYSIS METHOD IN A FRENCH LOCAL GOVERNMENT

This research is a study of the implementation of a risk analysis method (RAM) in a French local government. Based on the sociology of translation framework, this study shows that the success of the implementation of this management device is due to the transformation of its initial characteristics. Indeed, the RAM was initially designed to analyze the risks of outsourcing public services and thereby to aid elected officials with decision making. But in the hands of the actors in charge of its implementation, it progressively became a means for the members of the administrative services to inform elected officials about the consequences of their choices. This paper thus describes the ‘trajectory’ of this management device in a local government and, in doing so, emphasizes how it progressively became what it is (and what it is not) at present in this local government.     

The acerbity of the social: how to include the social in governmental risk assessments

This paper addresses the expansion of risk practices through a case study of a government led project in Sweden purposed to develop a method to include social events in mandatory risk practices. Social heterogeneity was to be transformed into straightforward causality in order to turn the social into a manageable object. In this regard, the project was quite successful. By inviting social scientists into the process, otherwise often marginalized within risk practice, causality and quantifiable risk factors could be established and the model became a rigorous and legitimate scientific model. Although experts were granted significant autonomy and became experts far beyond their own area of expertise, the success of the model lies rather in allowing experts authority within confined boundaries. Grand narratives and critical perspectives are disregarded as too abstract and if social scientists are to infuse aspects of social critique they must adapt to these circumstances: they must become instrumentalists.     

The interplay between risk adjustment and risk rating in voluntary health insurance

Many regulated health insurance markets include risk adjustment (aka risk equalization) to mitigate selection incentives for insurers. Empirical studies on the design and evaluation of risk-adjustment algorithms typically focus on mandatory health insurance schemes. This paper considers risk adjustment in the context of voluntary health insurance, as found in Chile, Ireland, and Australia. In addition to the challenge of mitigating selection by insurers, regulators of these voluntary schemes have to deal with selection by consumers in and out of the market. A strategy for mitigating selection by consumers is to apply some form of risk rating. Our paper shows how risk adjustment and risk rating interact: (1) risk rating reduces the need for risk adjustment and (2) risk adjustment reduces premium variation across rating factors, thereby increasing incentives for consumers to select in and out of the market.     

Public meetings about local cancer clusters: exploring the relative influence of official versus symbolic risk messages on attendees’ post‐meeting concern

Scholars have long lobbied for a view of risk communication that supplants a conventional ‘transmission’ model of risk communication with an alternative that considers the complex social environment that accompanies any risk communication effort. Along these lines, this study examines the relative influence of official health messages versus symbolic risk messages on public meeting attendees’ post‐meeting concern about cancer clusters in six US communities. As part of a larger study of cancer clusters, we obtained written responses from 125 individuals who attended a government‐sponsored public meeting in their community. We asked respondents whether attending the meeting influenced their concerns and, if so, why. The results found that, despite the largely reassuring messages that health officials were giving, most attendees reported feeling more concerned after the meetings in their communities. Regarding why, explanations that denoted symbolic risk messages – unofficial sources of risk information and procedural cues – outnumbered explanations that pointed to official risk messages – scientific presentations – by a score of three to one. The results lend support for a broader view of risk communication, which accounts not only for multiple sources of risk information but also for procedural cues regarding the trustworthiness of an investigation.     

Enterprise risk management: An empirical analysis of factors associated with the extent of implementation

Enterprise risk management (ERM) has emerged as a new paradigm for managing the portfolio of risks that face organizations, and policy makers continue to focus on mechanisms to improve corporate governance and risk management. Despite these developments, there is little research on factors associated with the implementation of ERM. Research is needed to provide insights as to why some organizations are responding to changing risk profiles by embracing ERM and others are not.This exploratory study examines factors associated with the stage of ERM implementation at a variety of US and international organizations. Based on data gathered from 123 organizations, we find the stage of ERM implementation to be positively related to the presence of a chief risk officer, board independence, CEO and CFO apparent support for ERM, the presence of a Big Four auditor, entity size, and entities in the banking, education, and insurance industries. We also find US organizations to have less-developed ERM processes than international organizations. We believe this paper will provide an initial foundation for more advanced research about ERM.     

Where to turn? The influence of information source on belief and behavior

When individuals face risks, they seek information to reduce uncertainty. This study examines where people turn for information and the effects this information seeking has on belief and behavior. Genetically, modified organisms pose a perceived environmental and health risk to society, creating worry and fear (negative affect) in many individuals. Though many people turn to personal sources, such as friends and family, for risk-relevant information, others turn to the news. Using structural equation modeling, the current research is able to analyze direct and indirect effects to construct a model of risk information seeking that differentiates these two forms of information seeking behavior. The results are intriguing, as personal information seeking and news information seeking have significantly different impacts on policy belief and avoidance behavior.     

Public sector risk managers and spending cuts: mitigating risks

This paper reports case study research, the results of which are used to consider whether councils have recognised the potentially substantially increased social risks they may create as they seek to reduce their spending in line with the UK Government’s programme of public sector austerity. It discusses the conceptual shift in the public sector risk management literature towards social risk management (SRM), presents empirical evidence of social risks and considers the approach to SRM developed by other organisations. It finds no evidence of SRM within the case study authorities and so advocates a shift in the public sector risk management culture from a preoccupation with defensive-institutional risk management practices to a more proactive social dimension. In so doing, it discusses the goals of SRM, the constraints limiting their achievement, metrics for measuring social risk, tools for mitigating social risk and the problems faced when operationalising SRM.     

Shifting risk to the frontline: case studies in different contract working environments

An extensive body of safety literature and research discusses the integral role of rules and procedures in managing workplace hazards, ensuring worker safety, and safeguarding the environment. Nevertheless, organizational accidents and workplace injuries continue to occur, and individual employees often bear the brunt of responsibility. This paper examines how risk becomes shifted to individuals at the bottom of supply chains, focusing on two different groups of contract workers. Specifically, it draws on case studies conducted in Australia – one on civil contractors working around hazardous infrastructure and one on athletes who are subject to anti-doping requirements. A comparison of the two cases and their distinctive elements illuminates the ways in which structural pressures, organizational dynamics, and context-specific conditions influence the risks shouldered by individuals. Our analysis shows that, in both cases, adverse outcomes are widely seen as the responsibility of contract workers, prompting other actors to judge them as blameworthy. In doing so, risk in various forms (e.g. safety, financial, reputational) becomes shifted onto workers who are constrained by contracts and away from away from higher level actors and organizations that are generally in more powerful positions than frontline workers. This finding suggests that the burden of accountability and potentially liability is borne primarily by frontline workers. Because of this focus, it is easy to lose sight of organizational and structural conditions that contribute to the risks revealed at the individual level. Through an analysis of 57 interviews across both sectors, complemented by participant observations and a media review, this paper underscores the importance of critically considering not only individual worker actions, but also how regulation can support the diversion of risk, responsibility, and liability onto frontline workers.     

财政风险与国债结构管理--从国债再融资角度的分析

国债风险是财政风险中的核心内容，控制风险的思路不能囿于国债总量的控制，还要注重国债结构管理所能发挥的作用。本文从国再融资资风险的角度，分析了国债结构管理在防范财政风险中的作用，并对我国国债现状进行了实证分析。最后，笔者提出，为降低我国财政风险，目前应该增加长期债券比例，形成一个均衡的债务期限。     

论保障公立医院公益性的主要条件

导致公立医院偏离公益性、出现市场化"逐利行为"的原因是多样的,办院理念的失误、管理体制和运行机制不合理、法律缺位、医德医风和医疗环境问题都是促使公立医院偏离公益性的原因。因此,在我国新时期的医疗体制改革过程中,实现国家卫生经费的大量投入是保证公立医院公益性的一项重要条件,但不是决定性条件,更不是唯一条件,要真正发挥出公立医院的公益性,必须从多方面、多角度、多环节入手,调整公立医院的办院理念、完善管理机制和运行机制、健全法律规范、倡导道德风尚、净化医疗环境,才能真正保障公立医院公益性的实现。     

Great deeds or great risks? Scientists’ social representations of nanotechnology

Nanotechnologies are becoming a larger presence in everyday life and are viewed by governments and economic actors as a key area for development. The theory of social representations suggests that specialist views eventually disseminate to shape representations among the public. Yet nanotechnologies remain relatively little known to the general public. The media emphasize potential benefits, while potential risks get less attention. The literature has not yet addressed whether representations by a well-informed population (scientists) are indeed structured in terms of the risk–benefit polarity that dominates research framing to date. We attempted a systematic assessment of how background knowledge about nanotechnology may influence experts’ perception. Study 1 delivered the first demonstration derived from a qualitative analysis confirming the existence of a polarized representation of nanotechnologies, contrasting opportunity (medical, economic, and technological) and risk. Interestingly, risk was distinguished at two levels: that associated with nanomaterial characteristics (toxicity, reactivity) and at the larger scale of impact (health, environment, legislation). Does this polarity indicate a ‘yes, but’ logic (nanotechnology carries opportunity but also risk), or two clusters of specialists (sensitive, respectively, to opportunity or to risk)? Study 2 surveyed a larger sample of experts who self-described their scientific background and role viz. nanotechnology. Role had no influence. Specialists consensually viewed that nanotechnology represents opportunity, but depending on scientific background they did not agree to the same extent that nanotechnology also constitutes a risk. Participants with a physics and chemistry background tended to represent nanotechnologies predominantly in terms of opportunities and not in terms of inherent risks or impacts. In contrast, toxicologists, life and social scientists appeared to explicitly incorporate both benefits and risks in their representation of this new technology. Environmental scientists were a more diverse group, divided between the two patterns of representation.     

基于金融衍生工具视角的长寿风险管理

长寿风险已成为养老保障发展所面临的重要风险,而作为养老保障产品供给者的政府、年金和寿险公司等机构难以持续、有效地管理长寿风险。本文在分析长寿风险发展态势和现有管理方案的缺陷后,研究了最近的长寿风险管理工具创新及其发展动向,即死亡率巨灾债券、EIB/BNP长寿债券和远期等,并在此基础上分析了基于资本市场的长寿/死亡率风险相关衍生品设计与交易,包括长寿债券、死亡率互换、死亡率期货和死亡率期权,最后是长寿/死亡率衍生品交易市场建设的启示。     

Analysing the risks of individual and collective intentionality

The risk assessment of complex systems often seems to neglect the way in which intentions, collective and individual, are central to our explanations of how risk arises in such systems. Contradictions among the intentions of different actors, for example, are typically an important part of our understanding of how organizations break down. Moreover, risk assessment practice pays little attention to the reflexive problem of how intentions for the risk assessment itself can themselves become problematic. This study was an attempt to develop a framework to support reasoning about intentionality, both individual and collective, during risk assessment. The framework broadly follows a process of 1) identifying the main social objects in a system, 2) asking what are the collective intentions for these objects in terms of the functions that are conferred on them, 3) asking what obligations and powers these create, and 4) asking what risks of organizational dysfunction can then arise. The approach was applied in a case study of aviation ramp operations. Its main value is as a formative rather than a summative kind of analysis.     

A new method for early detection of mass concern about public health issues

During a public health crisis, risk communication professionals and other risk managers need timely and reliable information about the public reaction as soon as possible in order to effectively carry out their responsibilities. Based on a data-set of microblog news posts, this article presents a method that can forecast to what extent news about a public health issue will be disseminated. The study makes advances in rapidly tracking citizens’ reaction towards public health issues by monitoring news media on microblog sites. The findings show that the proposed method can detect early on the intensity of social reaction on a public health issue as well as provide alert signals. The method can also complement existing risk detection systems and help in the design of other powerful risk analytics tools.     

Focal points for improving communications about electromagnetic fields and health: a mental models approach

Central to the precautionary policy is the provision of information about electromagnetic fields (EMF) technology, exposures, potential health risks and exposure management actions to the public. To meet this need at the broadest level, beyond the specific technology foci of previous research, a research project was commissioned as part of Dutch Electromagnetic Fields and Health Research Programme. This study provides an assessment of Dutch EMF information needs from an ensemble of sources by addressing people’s existing ideas and beliefs, using a mental models approach. A summary expert model of influences on and consequences of exposure derived from search of the relevant literature is informed by interviews with 15 scientists and professionals with diverse expertise. Although the professionals characterize the physical characteristics and psychological aspects of exposure to EMF in daily life similarly, there is no consensus regarding potential health effects. Interviews with 12 lay people followed by a confirmatory survey of the general Dutch public (n = 403) reveal not only wide variation in beliefs regarding potential health effects of EMF, but also overestimation of the amount of radiation from public sources relative to personal sources of EMF. People do not feel adequately informed by the government about EMF, and knowledge of government policies on EMF is limited. Together, the evidence suggests three focal points for improving EMF risk communications: providing more clarity regarding the uncertainty of evidence for health effects, illuminating personal EMF exposures in daily life and providing more accessible and transparent information on governmental policies.     

How does competition affect bank systemic risk?

Using bank level measures of competition and co-dependence, we show a robust negative relationship between bank competition and systemic risk. Whereas much of the extant literature has focused on the relationship between competition and the absolute level of risk of individual banks, in this paper we examine the correlation in the risk taking behavior of banks. We find that greater competition encourages banks to take on more diversified risks, making the banking system less fragile to shocks. Examining the impact of the institutional and regulatory environment on bank systemic risk shows that banking systems are more fragile in countries with weak supervision and private monitoring, greater government ownership of banks, and with public policies that restrict competition. We also find that the negative effect of lack of competition can be mitigated by a strong institutional environment that allows for efficient public and private monitoring of financial institutions.