Is It Who You Know? Entrepreneurs and Bankers in Sao Paulo, Brazil, at the Turn of the Twentieth Century

This article examines the trust-producing mechanisms investorsand financiers used in São Paulo, Brazil, to determinewhere to invest their money in the late nineteenth and earlytwentieth centuries. The coffee boom that began in the 1880sspurred bursts of new domestic business development that transformedSão Paulo into Brazil's industrial leader. Using shareholderand director data from an array of business sectors, this articledemonstrates that early development (1856–1905) of theinstitutions that provided business finance was accompaniedby highly personal relationships between financier and entrepreneur.By the early twentieth century (1906–1920), rapid economicgrowth and business diversification rendered these personalconnections inadequate and hence less important to businessfinance. Investors and directors concentrated their energiesand their money, abandoning the practice of forming broad connectionsin general—and connections to a bank in particular—andturned to the stock market instead. By providing an alternativeto personal forms of trust production, the rise of impersonalintermediation promoted the significantly broadened market forcorporate business formation that underwrote São Paulo'seconomic transformation.     

The Aftermath of a Currency Collapse: How Different are Emerging Markets?

In currency crises, unlike in orderly devaluations, the financial markets dominate events. Previous research has shown that the output effects of a crisis tend to be worse in emerging markets, and the current account adjustment greater. This paper examines the evolution of a wider range of macroeconomic variables from two years before a currency collapse to two years afterwards. On the basis of twelve recent episodes, it is shown that currency collapses (crises followed by depreciations) have had a much greater adverse impact in emerging markets (defined as relatively high‐income developing countries exposed to international capital markets) than in developed countries. There is greater nominal and real depreciation, a substantial inflation shock, a much bigger output effect, and far greater import compression, whilst inflows of portfolio capital virtually cease. These differences are statistically significant. Nevertheless there is wide variation n the post‐collapse experience of the six emerging markets studied (Mexico, Thailand, Korea, Indonesia, Russia and Brazil). Although all six experienced a sudden stop or even a reversal of capital flows and very sharp nominal depreciations, inflation remained low in Thailand, Korea and Brazil, and output losses were comparatively small in Russia and Brazil. Previous studies of individual crises suggest that important factors are the state of the banking system and its vulnerability to currency movements, the ability of the authorities to establish a credible macroeconomic policy after the collapse, and whether the crisis triggers significant political instability.     

Measuring transparency and disclosure at firm-level in emerging markets

Transparency and disclosure are integral to corporate governance. In this paper, we use a new dataset to analyze Transparency & Disclosure scores (T&D score) in 19 emerging markets for 354 firms representing 70% of S&P/IFCI Index market capitalization over the 3 years ending in 2000. We analyze differences across countries, economic sectors and trend over the 3 years. We find that the Asian emerging markets and South Africa have significantly higher transparency and disclosure compared to the Latin American, Eastern European, and Middle Eastern emerging markets. The gap between the Asian emerging markets and South Africa over other emerging markets has increased over the last 3 years. We do not find any significant differences in T&D scores among economic sectors. Changes in the T&D scores over the last 3 years, however, differ by economic sectors for the 6 markets with the largest investable market capitalization and/or number of observations, viz. Brazil, Poland, South Africa, India, Thailand, and Korea. We then study the relationships between T&D scores and cross-holdings for the 6 emerging markets. For the 6 markets except Korea, correlation between cross-holdings and T&D scores is negative. For the 6 markets except South Africa, correlation between price-to-book ratios and T&D scores is positive. We conclude with a discussion on further research.     

Daniel Lederman. The Political Economy of Protection: Theory and the Chilean Experience. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 2005. ix + 191 pp. ISBN 0-8047-4917-5, $55.00.

To anyone teaching the political economy of protection, Chilemust be among the closest "natural" experiments around. Thisbook provides a rich and very informative interpretation ofChilean trade policies that covers the period 1810–2000. Chapter 1 reviews the contributions by economists and politicalscientists to the public choice approach to the determinantsof protection. Contributions by the economics and politicalscience literature are grafted to a supply-demand frameworkof protection, with much of the discussion focusing on     

Madeleine Zelin, Jonathan K. Ocko, and Robert Gardella, eds. Contract and Property in Early Modern China. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 2004. vii + 398 pp. ISBN 0-8047-4639-7, $65.00.

In 1887 the Journal of the Royal Asiatic Society—ChinaBranch sponsored a symposium on "Chinese partnerships," in whicha number of eminent China hands such as E. H. Parker and ChalonerAlabaster shared their long experience with the subject. Thediscussants agreed, among other things, that liability for debtsof the firm was enforceable in Chinese courts, that this liabilitywas shared among the partners according to their contractuallydetermined shares in the business, and that a contractuallydesignated "managing partner" normally     

BRIC and the U.S. financial crisis: An empirical investigation of stock and bond markets

We examine empirical evidence of the behavior of stocks and bonds from BRIC nations by using daily data from January 2003 to July 2010. We present unconditional and conditional empirical results depending upon a simple measure of U.S. financial stress. In the long term, BRIC bond markets deviate much more from the U.S. financial stress measure than the BRIC bonds and stocks that deviate among themselves. Stock and bond return correlations for Brazil and Russia are significantly large and negative. The own correlations are more important in determining the evolution of the conditional correlations relative to unexpected news. Dynamic conditional correlations between stock returns, bond returns and U.S. financial stress increase after the Lehman Brothers' event in September 2008, except for the bond returns in India.     

Robert G. Angevine. The Railroad and the State: War, Politics, and Technology in Nineteenth-Century America. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 2004. xvii + 351 pp. ISBN 0-8047-4239-1, $65.00 (cloth).

Robert Angevine’s excellent monograph offers valuableinsights for historians of technology, business, and the military.This book details the "symbiotic" relationship of railroadsand the military, showing how the relationship evolved duringthe nineteenth century. Angevine lays out his story chronologically. The fact that theUnited States was going to need some sort of transportationinfrastructure in order to move troops in a timely manner wasfirst realized after the War of 1812. As a result,     

Terry L. Anderson and Peter J. Hill. The Not So Wild, Wild West: Property Rights on the Frontier. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 2004. xii + 263 pp. ISBN 0-8047-4854-3, $24.95 (cloth).

Adopting the approach of the "new institutional economics,"Terry L. Anderson and Peter J. Hill argue that grassroots, cooperativelydeveloped property rules in the nineteenth-century AmericanWest led to the peaceful resolution of most conflicts. To thedegree that cooperation trumped conflict and violence, the authorsinsist, "the ‘wild, wild West’ was really the ‘notso wild, wild West’" (p. 5). Institutional entrepreneurs,they contend, emerged to establish property rights governingaccess to rangeland,     

The information content of the S&P 500 index and VIX options on the dynamics of the S&P 500 index

Given that both S&P 500 index and VIX options essentially contain information about the future dynamics of the S&P 500 index, in this study, we set out to empirically investigate the informational roles played by these two option markets with regard to the prediction of returns, volatility, and density in the S&P 500 index. Our results reveal that the information content implied from these two option markets is not identical. In addition to the information extracted from the S&P 500 index options, all of the predictions for the S&P 500 index are significantly improved by the information recovered from the VIX options. Our findings are robust to various measures of realized volatility and methods of density evaluation. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

Bankers, Industrialists, and their Cliques: Elite Networks in Mexico and Brazil during Early Industrialization

The historiographies of Mexico and Brazil have implicitly statedthat business networks were crucial for the initial industrializationof these two countries. Recently, differing visions on the importanceof business networks have arisen. In the case of Mexico, theliterature argues that entrepreneurs relied heavily on an informalinstitutional structure to obtain necessary resources and information.In contrast, the recent historiography of Brazil suggests thatafter 1890 the network of corporate relations became less importantfor entrepreneurs trying to obtain capital and concessions,once the institutions promoted financial markets and easy entryfor new businesses. Did entrepreneurs in Brazil and Mexico organizetheir networks differently to deal with the different institutionalsettings? We examine whether in Mexico businessmen relied moreon networks of interlocking boards of directors and other informalarrangements to do business than in Brazil. Our hypothesis isconfirmed by three related results: (1) the total number ofconnections (i.e., the density of the network) was higher inMexico than Brazil; (2) in Mexico, there was one dense corenetwork, while in Brazil we find fairly dispersed clusters ofcorporate board interlocks; and most importantly, (3) politiciansplayed a more important role in the Mexican network of corporatedirectors than their counterparts in Brazil. Interestingly,even though Brazil and Mexico relied on very different institutionalstructures, both countries had similar rates of growth between1890 and 1913. However, the dense and exclusive Mexican networkmight have ended up increasing the social and political tensionsthat led to the Mexican Revolution (1910–1920).     

Market Price of Risk: A Comparison among the United States,United Kingdom,Australia and Japan*

This study examines and compares the market price of risk of the S&P 500, FTSE 100, All Ordinaries, and Nikkei 225 markets from 1984 to 2009 in the framework of Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM). We follow the Vector Autoregressive instrumental variable approach in identifying the risk and hedge components of market returns and argue that in the context of market integration, covariance with a world market portfolio is a better measure of market risk than conditional market variance. Evidence is documented in support of using covariance as a risk measure in explaining market risk premiums in the Australian and Japanese markets. CAY, the consumption wealth ratio from the US market is found to be a robust state variable that helps to explain both conditional variance and covariance processes in the four markets. The market prices of risk, after controlling for the hedging demands, are positive and significant with the United States having the highest price of risk. The results are confirmed using a series of robustness tests that include varying the sampling interval.     

The genesis of the electricity supply industry in Britain: A case study of NESCo from 1889 to 1914

A study of the Newcastle upon Tyne Electric Supply Company (NESCo) provides a micro-history of the emergence of the electricity supply industry in Britain up to the First World War. This research examines the role of social capital in the establishment and growth of NESCo, the only financially successful British electric power company. Temporal bracketing was adopted to evaluate two distinct time periods: emergence from 1889 to 1899; and growth from 1900 to 1914. Family, business and social networks together with geographical and political factors secured the company’s dominant position. The structural relationship with Merz & McLellan contributed to growth through acquisitions, joint ventures, and access to new markets.     

Index futures leadership,basis behavior,and trader selectivity

Employing intraday data for futures and cash values for the S&P 500 over the 1993–1996 period, we attempt to characterize the lead–lag relationship between these two markets and their basis behavior. Our findings show evidence of pronounced futures leadership when markets are rising, with no feedback from the cash market. However, when markets are falling, futures leadership is less evident and significant feedback from the cash market is noted. We also provide evidence of a positive relationship between the basis and return volatility. We offer an explanation, based on trader selectivity, for the leadership‐asymmetry and the basis–volatility relationship. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:649–677, 2002     

Soren Mentz. The English Gentleman Merchant at Work: Madras and the City of London, 1660-1740. Copenhagen: Museum Tusculanum Press, 2005. 304 pp. ISBN 87-7289-909-3, $25.00 (paper).

As the title aptly notes, in The English Gentleman Merchantat Work Søren Mentz explores merchant connections betweenIndia and London from the mid-seventeenth to the mid-eighteenthcentury. In particular, the book explores the organization ofprivate trade by East India Company personnel operating fromMadras on the Coromandel coast of India. Mentz argues that thesetrades should not be seen as merely part of an already existingIndian/Asian trade but rather as     

Mark Aldrich. Death Rode the Rails: American Railroad Accidents and Safety, 1828-1965. Baltimore, Md.: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 2006. xvi + 446 pp. ISBN 0-8018-8236-2, $59.95 (paper).

This is an excellent narrative of the evolution of public andindustry focus on industrial safety. It is subtitled "accidentsand safety" because accidents played a very public role of focusingattention on particular problems (e.g., brakes, bridge design,rail failures, and explosions of hazardous materials). By lookingat accidents and safety, Aldrich develops four key themes thathe weaves throughout the narrative. Aldrich’s economicanalysis, much of which is contained in the notes and in thirtypages of     

Spillover Effects among European,the US and Moroccan Stock Markets before and after the Global Financial Crisis

ABSTRACT

This paper assesses return and volatility spillovers among stock markets in Morocco, the US, UK, France and Germany represented respectively by MASI, S&P 500, FTSE 100, CAC 40 and DAX 30 indices, both before and after the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008. The daily frequency data cover the period from January 2nd, 2002 to June 30th, 2016. Using the Diebold and Yilmaz approach, the results show varying financial connectedness between the Moroccan and the above mentioned developed stock markets. In fact, the significant increase of spillover index during the post-financial crisis period demonstrates that the US and European stock markets were the most affected. On the other hand, despite a relative increase of spillover effects coming from the US and German equity markets, our results show decline in the total net spillovers experienced by the Moroccan market after the recent financial crisis. These findings may provide some useful information to support decision-making and trading strategies for international investors.     

The implied volatility smirk of commodity options

This paper studies the implied volatility (IV) smirks in four commodity markets by adopting Zhang and Xiang's methodology. First, we document the term structure and dynamics of IV smirks. Overall, the commodity IV curves are negatively skewed with a positive curvature. Then we analyze the commodity and S&P 500 returns' predictability based on in‐sample and out‐of‐sample tests and find that the information embedded in IV smirks can significantly predict monthly commodity and S&P 500 returns. For example, the risk‐neutral fourth cumulant (FC) from the crude oil market outperforms all of the standard predictors in predicting the S&P 500 returns.     

Doing business in Brazil: A strategic approach

Brazil has the largest economy in South America, and the second largest in Latin America, offering one of the most promising markets in the world. Along with China and India, Brazil is ranked among the nations with the highest predicted development rates in the next 25 years. In the early 2000s, Brazil accounted for 56% of all foreign direct investment flows to South America and 52.5% of the foreign direct investment stock in South America. Brazil is also a key player in the design and development of the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA), which is scheduled to be effective by 2005. The FTAA is expected to be the world's largest regional trading block. In 2002, Brazil was ranked twelfth amongst the largest economies in the world. Brazil is one of the world's “Big Five” emerging markets, along with China, India, Mexico, and Indonesia. In the past decade, Brazil was second to China among emerging economies for received foreign direct investment. This article elaborates on the main aspects of doing business in Brazil and discusses some of the challenges and opportunities facing the Brazilian economy. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

China Calls for Overhaul of International Monetary System

After the outbreak of the global financial crisis, there has been an outcry .from developing countries, especially the so-called BRIC （Brazil, Russia, India and China）, that a “diversified”international monetary system should be put in place. At their first formal summit meeting held on June, the leaders of Brazil, Russia,     

Kathleen Thelen. How Institutions Evolve: The Political Economy of Skills in Germany, Britain, the United States, and Japan. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 2004. xv + 333 pp. ISBN 0-521-83768-5, $75.00 (cloth); ISBN 0-521-54674-5, $29.99 (paper).

Kathleen Thelen has written an incredibly fascinating book thatshould be obligatory reading for anyone interested in the historyof skill formation or the evolution of institutions in general.For those working on the "varieties of capitalism," path-dependency,punctured equilibrium, or historical institutionalism, thistext should feature prominently in their work. Thelen’sgoal in this book is to discover why Germany, Britain, the UnitedStates, and Japan pursued different "paths" of skill formation.She traces the origin of each path