中国小额信贷可持续发展分析

小额信贷的可持续发展不仅有利于小额信贷机构自身的生存发展,而且有利于完善农村金融市场,促进贫困地区经济发展以及帮助贫困地区人口脱贫。文章根据我国小额信贷发展的实际情况,提出了小额信贷发展中面临的问题以及实现小额信贷可持续发展的对策建议。     

落后地区农村金融服务创新的有益尝试——基于甘肃省徽县“文池模式”小额信贷的调查

甘肃省徽县的"文池模式"小额信贷,为创新落后地区农村金融服务方式,建立适应落后地区"三农"特点的多层次、广覆盖、可持续发展的农村小额信贷模式探索了一条很好的途径。是落后地区农村金融改革的有益尝试。本文从徽县农村小额信贷主体;小额信贷风险监督机制;风险控制的主要方式;以及落后地区农村金融改革的发展方向等角度进行了积极的探索。     

吕梁市两种民办小额信贷组织发展模式的比较研究

发展小额信贷组织,是当前农村金融体系改革的重要举措,课题组通过对吕梁市两种小额信贷组织一小额贷款公司和富平基金会的发展模式的比较研究,提出了完善和加强民办小额信贷组织准入、监管、鼓励、补贴制度的建议,对进一步推动民办小额信贷组织发展,建立新型农村金融体系,促进中小企业与家庭经济持续发展等方面有一定的借鉴价值。     

江苏省小额信贷保险的发展与思考

江苏作为保险大省和小额信贷发展较快的地区，小额信贷保险的发展状况具有一定的代表意义。本文通过对江苏小额信贷保险发展状况的调查，剖析了当前江苏小额信贷保险发展中所暴露出的产品风险较高、设计不尽合理、政府政策支持力度不强、社会受众保险意识不足与宣传引导不到位、银保合作不规范等发展瓶颈，并从完善产品设计、建立有利于小额信贷保险可持续发展的风险分摊机制、增强保险公司风险管理能力、营造有利于小额信贷保险发展的外部环境等四大方面提出了相关政策建议。     

因地制宜发展我国非政府组织小额信贷

本文介绍了目前非政府小额信贷机构的发展状况,比较分析了非政府小额信贷机构与三种新型农村金融机构各自的优势与局限性,提出各地需要因地制宜发展非政府组织小额信贷,并对它今后的良性发展提出政策建议。     

从国外经验看农村小额信贷市场策略调整

从国际农村小额信贷的成功案例来看,小额信贷是填补贫困地区农村金融服务空白的较好选择.但是,我国现有的小额信贷实践模式还存在许多问题有待进一步探讨和研究,相关策略需要改革和调整.本文通过借鉴国外小额信贷市场发展的先进经验,分别从宏观和微观方面提出了关于我国小额信贷市场的调整策略.     

对我国小额信贷可持续发展的思考

当前,小额信贷对建设社会主义新农村、构建和谐社会的积极作用正日益显现。本文对我国小额信贷的发展历程进行了思考,提出我国小额信贷可持续发展的建议。     

我国农村信用社小额信贷可持续发展研究

农村信用社小额信贷可持续发展不仅是指小额信贷机构的持久生存,也包括小额信贷市场份额的持续增长,还包括小额信贷通过金融创新和服务创新以增强生存能力的功能。从当前我国农信社开展的小额信贷业务来看普遍存在利率低、期限短、额度小、小组联保未能得到有效实行等问题,再加上农业生产自身存在的弱质性,使小额信贷的持续发展屡遇瓶颈。本文从当前农信社小额信贷发展状况出发,深入分析了利率、信贷制度设计、贷款周期和贷款额度、风险保障对象和贷款支持对象几方面存在的问题并提出未来发展策略和扶持方案,为其进一步发展以更好地服务于"三农"提供参考。     

小额信贷批发基金的新视角-国际经验及对我国的政策思考

资金短缺问题一直是我国小额信贷机构,尤其是公益性小额信贷组织生存和可持续发展的瓶颈,建立小额信贷批发基金是解决其资金难题的有效途径。论文首先以全球视角分析了小额信贷批发基金的新特点和发展趋势,同时选取六家批发基金机构进行重点案例研究,明确批发基金在促进小额信贷组织和行业发展方面的作用,阐述了国际专家的相关建议。最后,结合中国小额信贷发展实际,分析建立小额信贷批发基金的现实性和重要意义,提出设立、运营和发展批发基金的可操作性建议。     

我国农村信用社小额信贷可持续发展研究

农村信用社小额信贷可持续发展不仅是指小额信贷机构的持久生存,也包括小额信贷市场份额的持续增长,还包括小额信贷通过金融创新和服务创新以增强生存能力的功能。从当前我国农信社开展的小额信贷业务来看普遍存在利率低、期限短、额度小、小组联保未能得到有效实行等问题,再加上农业生产自身存在的弱质性,使小额信贷的持续发展屡遇瓶颈。本文从当前农信社小额信贷发展状况出发,深入分析了利率、信贷制度设计、贷款周期和贷款额度、风险保障对象和贷款支持对象几方面存在的问题并提出未来发展策略和扶持方案,为其进一步发展以更好地服务于"三农"提供参考。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…