Convergence and transitional dynamics of China's industrial output: A county-level study using a new framework of distribution dynamics analysis

Many scholars have argued that the huge increase in regional inequality in China can be attributed greatly to the disparity in industrialization. This paper contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence on the transitional dynamics of industrial output by employing a new framework of distribution dynamics analysis, namely, the mobility probability plot (MPP), and a county-level database made up of counties and county-level cities. The new framework can address several inadequacies of the traditional display tools used in the distribution dynamics literature. Stochastic kernel analyses are performed for the nation, the economic zones, and the provinces individually so as to provide an in-depth understanding of the evolution and convergence of industrial output. This study fills the gap in the literature and provides information on mobility of the county-level units, which can greatly aid the policy making process.     

Decomposing Income Inequality and Policy Implications in Rural China

Using village data from samples covering 6 provinces,36 counties and 216 townships,the income inequalities within and between townships in rural China are assessed. The Theil index and the mean logarithmic deviation methods enable us to test income inequality at the township level,and to decompose it into intra-regional and inter-regional at county and provincial levels. In the present paper,we also decompose income inequalities between and within the nationally designated poor counties (NDPC). The results show that approximately two-thirds of the income inequality in rural China would be eliminated if measures and policies were targeted at the county level. This study also confirms the rationale that China's poverty alleviation strategy of focusing on poor counties based on the inequalities between NDPC and non-NDPC accounts for the most inter-province inequality.     

Convergence and Intercountry Inequality within Asia: A Combined Approach Using Decomposition Techniques and Transitional Dynamics Analysis

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of intercountry inequality and convergence in Asia by using a combined approach that is based on decomposition techniques and transitional dynamics analysis. The research is divided into three stages. First, decomposition by regional subgroups is conducted to estimate the contributions of the interregional component and the five spatial groupings to overall inequality to reveal the development of inequality in Asia. Second, the technique of decomposition by income sources is used to evaluate the relative significance of the agricultural, industrial and service sectors to facilitate formulation of industrial policy for economic development. Finally, the present study analyses the evolution of regional inequality and assesses the possibility of convergence.     

江苏沿海经济带经济发展的空间差异定量分析

江苏沿海经济带既是我国发达沿海中的“断裂带”，也是发达江苏省中的欠发达地区。文章首先构建用来定量分析经济发展空间差异的指标体系；接着运用因子分析等方法，对2005年这一经济带中17个样本（县、县级市、市区）的经济发展水平进行计算，得出各样本的得分；然后，以所有样本的3个公因子与各自贡献率之积为变量进行聚类分析，将其经济发展综合水平划分为4种类型，并相应作出评价；最后，将江苏沿海经济带与沿江开发地区作了扼要对比。主要结论有：江苏沿海经济带内绝大多数县（县级市、市区）的经济发展水平都不高，并呈由南向北递减的趋势；南通市区的经济发展水平较高，其后各县（县级市、市区）与其差距较大。     

Divergence or convergence?: Income inequality between cities,towns and villages in Japan

Researchers have emphasized different aspects of income inequality, including the statistical evidence of interregional per capita income convergence (following the economic growth theory) and the increase in individual income inequality. This study clarifies these issues, by analyzing the interregional income inequality of cities, towns and villages data in Japan from 1986 to 1999. The results of this empirical analysis show that the interregional income inequality decreases in the 1990s, in spite of the increase in individual income inequality.     

中国农村扶贫项目的目标定位

I. IntroductionHistorically, poverty is a rural phenomenon in China. The majority of the poor populationis still living in rural areas, although it is widely reported that the number of poor poeple hasdeclined dramatically since the end of 1978 when reform was initiated (The World Bank,2001; National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, 2001). The official estimate indicates that therewere 34 million of poor people in rural China in 1999 (NBS, 2001). However, it is argued thattheir dramatic reduct…     

Trade, convergence, and globalisation: The dynamics of the international income distribution, 1950-1998

This paper investigates the evidence for convergence in per capita incomes across 115 economies during the period 1950-1998 and examines the impact that international trade had on this process. Drawing on trade-conditioning within a distribution dynamics framework, that explicitly models frequency distributions of the cross sections of economies over time, this study suggests that trade patterns in the Golden Age were conducive to the formation of middle and high income groups or clubs of economies, but similar trade patterns (dominated by the rich economies) do not seem to explain the perpetuation of these group formations in the post-Golden Age period. If foreign trade is a key aspect of globalisation, why does it matter in accounting for the observed dynamics of the international income distribution during the Golden Age, but not during the decades since the first oil-shock? Further, the evidence from the ergodic (long-run equilibrium) distribution suggests that in the long term the established trade patterns favoured the growth of the rich at the expense of the poor economies across the world.     

Deficit Estimation and Welfare Effects after the 1994 Fiscal Reform in China： Evidence from the County Level

Using simple statistical analysis of count-level budgetary data from across all of China＇s counties, the present paper examines whether the post-1994 fiscal decentralization has affected redistribution at the count-level. The new fiscal system has been less able to narrow inter-county dispersion in ftscal imbalances than the old one, even after taking intergovernmental transfer payments into account. Although with the post-1994 system there has been a modest increase in per capita welfare spending in all counties on average, much of the new-found fiscal resources have been spent on salary and administrative expenses rather than spending on public goods. Therefore, it is imperative that the reform of China＇s tax system is intensified.     

Beneficial Inequality in the Provision of Municipal Services: Why Rich Neighborhoods Should Get Plowed First

This paper provides an explanation for the common observation that higher income neighborhoods typically receive better public services compared with lower income neighborhoods. Intuitively, one might expect that lower income groups, which usually form the voting majority of cities, would object to an unfair allocation of this nature. Wealthy individuals, however, have the option of moving to the suburbs. As we learn from the tax competition literature, mobile factors are generally able to command a premium. Since institutional constraints prevent regressive taxation and public goods are by definition consumed in equal quantity by all agents, only public services remain as an instrument for municipalities to use to keep wealthy agents in their tax base. We show that both rich and poor agents benefit from this differential access to public services and explore how factors like the ratio of rich to poor and the differences between their incomes affect the equilibrium allocation.     

城市倾向经济政策对农民收入的影响——基于河南省县域截面数据的实证分析

由于城乡之闽发展绩效的差异，为经济增长而竞争的地方政府，存在着实施城市倾向经济政策的制度激励，忽视了农村经济发展，这对农民收入产生了严重的负面影响。文章使用河南省108个县（市）截面数据建立计量模型。研究表明，加大投资力度或增加社会总投资中农村投资所占的份额，都对增加河南县域农民收入有显著正向影响。     

百强县农产品全域电商发展模式及融合路径

中国百强县数量占全国县域经济单位总数的5.57％,2019年百强县地区生产总值总量占全国县域经济的26.60％.在脱贫攻坚决胜年和乡村振兴开局年,县域电商在高速发展的同时正面临物流、人才、品牌、资源等瓶颈限制,构建农产品全域电商发展模式需求愈发强烈.在探究农产品全域电商发展模式和融合路径时,选取百强县为对象,旨在全域电商构建的领域内打造领军县市,带动周围县市发展.农产品的全域电商发展需要采取以工促农的发展方式,推动农村一二三产业融合发展,丰富乡村经济业态,提升农民增收空间,这样才能有效破解县域电商的发展瓶颈进而构建起全域电商.     

苏南地区县域经济发展与对策研究

文章首先通过聚类分析法对具有代表性的苏南地区14个县级市的经济发展水平进行层次分类,接着结合县域经济的发展趋势,选取并收集各市的相关数据,运用面板数据模型归纳分析了苏南地区县级市经济发展的主要影响因素.最后依据实证结果,文章为苏南地区县域经济发展提出了政策建议,希望能为全国其他地区县域经济发展提供借鉴.     

长三角地区县域经济发展差异及其动态收敛研究

文章以长三角地区60个县（不包括区）1998—2009年间的人均GDP数据为基础,首先采用标准差系数和锡尔系数分析该地区内县域经济发展差异水平现状,然后根据经济增长收敛理论进一步对其动态收敛趋势进行实证分析。研究结果表明,长三角地区县域经济差异在1998—2009年间逐渐增大,并且基本不存在动态收敛的趋势,仅部分地区内县域经济存在俱乐部收敛。根据研究结果提出了初步的政策建议。     

Do the Rich Get Richer,Do the Poor Get Poorer? East Java,Two Decades,Three Villages, 46 People

Based on village observation over a span of 20 years, this paper details changes in the per capita income distribution of 46 families from three representative villages in East Java. It presents two separate measurements of the “rich”, “middlerdquo; and “poorrdquo;, showing changes in the distribution of wealth both in cohorts comprising unchanging groups of families and in percentile wealth groupings. Relative cohort inequity decreased markedly, with the poor improving their position much faster than the rich. Relative percentile inequity increased slightly. In terms of buying power, both the poor cohort and the poor percentile became significantly wealthier. These data indicate that the view that the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer is clearly over-generalised. These poor became significantly richer.     

提升新疆棉花综合生产能力的新思路：南疆地区棉花主体功能区建设

本文依据综合生产能力的投入产出理论建立指标体系,运用聚类分析法把新疆南疆棉花主产区的42个县市划分为四类区域,并对各个区域农业综合生产能力进行排序、归类,即I类区域为棉花综合生产能力最强的区域,依次类推。分析结果显示,I类区域有3个县市,占7．1％;II类区域有12个县市,占28．6％;III类区域有18个县市,占42．9％;IV类区域有9个县市,占21．4％。该研究旨在加快新疆南疆地区棉花主体功能区建设,即对优先发展棉区、重点发展棉区和限制发展棉区的县市“对症下药”,并进一步建立生态补偿机制,促进新疆棉花产业新发展。     

Income inequality and access to housing: Evidence from China

Economic theory suggests that income inequality predicts housing price and housing affordability for low-income households. Employing Chinese urban household survey data, this paper examines empirically the relationship between income inequality and access to housing for urban low-income households. The empirical results demonstrate that higher income inequality within cities is significantly related to a higher housing cost burden, a smaller per capita living space, and lower housing quality for low-income households. Further studies demonstrate that the negative impacts of income inequality could be moderated by product differentiation in housing markets, as a higher degree of differentiation in the size of housing units corresponds to a smaller effect of income inequality on housing affordability.     

浙江省县域经济发展差异时空演变分析

文章以浙江省69个县域单元为研究对象,利用非参数核密度估计和探索性空间数据分析方法,采用1991-2011年县域人均国内生产总值数据,定量揭示浙江省县域经济发展的时空演变差异、空间相关性及其演化趋势。结论显示：浙江省县域经济发展水平整体提高的同时,县域经济发展差异逐渐加剧;全局自相关分析显示浙江省县域经济发展存在显著空间自相关性,并且表现出典型的高高集聚与低低集聚空间分布类型;局域自相关分析表明浙东北县域经济发展水平显著高于浙西南地区,整体上呈现明显的城乡二元空间经济结构,高高集聚与低低集聚对全省县域经济发展空间格局演化贡献程度最高。     

基于面板数据方法的泉州市居民收入收敛性实证研究

利用1999-2008年泉州市各县(市、区)的人均收入面板数据,应用多种面板单位根检验方法对泉州市城镇及农村居民人均收入是否存在区域收敛性进行实证检验。结果发现,城镇在岗职工平均工资既存在β-绝对收敛,也存在β-条件收敛,而农村居民人均纯收入只存在β-绝对收敛,而不存在β-条件收敛。     

重点生态功能区转移支付改善生态环境了吗?——基于PSM的结果

重点生态功能区转移支付是维护国家生态安全、实现"美丽中国"采取的重要举措。文章采用倾向值匹配法（PSM）实证检验重点生态功能区转移支付的生态效果、效果的动态变化以及转移支付标准高低异质性对生态效果的影响。基于广东省是实施该政策较早、又具有投入资金多等特点,因此选取广东省2011-2017年县级层面统计数据为样本,以生态环境状况指数作为生态效果的衡量指标进行效果分析和评价。研究结果表明,生态转移支付政策的实施有效地改善了重点生态功能区所在县市的生态环境,该类地区生态环境状况指数平均提高约3.42个单位,生态环境质量显著提高4.5%。另外随着生态转移支付拨付年份的增加,该项政策对生态环境质量的改善效果呈现增大的趋势,但在2017年前未达到显著性水平。进一步的政策异质性分析结果表明转移支付标准会影响政策的生态效果。因此建议我国长期实施重点生态功能区转移支付政策,适当加大转移支付拨付力度,提高生态补偿标准,加快建设横向生态补偿机制,发展生态绿色经济,以促进生态环境质量改善。文章采用倾向值匹配法（PSM）验证重点生态功能区转移支付改善生态环境的效果,并在此基础上进行异质性分析,丰富了生态补偿的实证研究成果,为进一步发挥重点生态功能区转移支付维护生态安全的作用、完善我国生态补偿体系提供参考依据。