基于全寿命周期成本的输电网经济性智能规划

利用全寿命周期成本理论针对输电网经济性规划建立了规划模型,基于改进的猫群算法对输电网经济性规划模型进行了求解分析,并得到了较理想的规划结果,验证了全寿命周期成本理论以及改进猫群优化算法在输电网规划中的适用性及有效性。     

民用飞机全寿命周期成本管理分析

本文介绍了民用飞机全寿命周期阶段和成本构成,阐述了民用飞机全寿命周期成本管理的必要性,并对全寿命周期成本管理的关键控制点进行了分析,最后对中国民用飞机全寿命周期成本管理提出建议。     

基于消费者视角的电动汽车全寿命周期成本模型及分析

本文以全寿命周期成本理论为基础,从消费者角度对电动汽车全寿命周期内的成本进行了全面分析,建立了电动汽车的全寿命周期成本模型,为电动汽车的保有成本估算提供了方法依据。同时,将电动汽车与燃油汽车就成本进行了比较分析。结论表明,电动汽车的全寿命周期成本远低于燃油汽车,在同等条件下理性消费者会更倾向于选择电动汽车。     

变电站投资费用模型及敏感因素分析

本文结合变电站各阶段费用的特点,应用全寿命周期费用分析方法对变电站的建设进行决策分析。将变电站的全寿命周期费用分为一次投资费用、运行费用和中断供电损失费用,建立了变电站全寿命周期费用估算模型,基于运行年限、年利率和通货膨胀率对变电站的全寿命周期费用进行修正以及敏感因素分析。以220kV变电站为例,对其综合自动化系统和常规保护系统进行全寿命周期费用的分析和比较,从而验证了所建全寿命周期费用模型对变电站建设进行决策分析的实用性和可行性。     

发电工程项目全寿命周期成本分析方法研究

全寿命周期成本分析方法符合可持续发展思想,并以"顾客"为中心,它从项目的"出生"到"死亡"来考虑成本问题,涉及了项目的初始投资、运行维护和报废回收等方面,又兼顾考虑到项目的绿色环保等反映社会环境效益方面的因素。本文以全寿命周期成本分析方法理论对发电项目的全寿命周期成本构成进行分析和研究,建立了计算模型,并通过实例,说明该方法对发电项目经济性分析,不仅有效可行,而且全面科学,该方法是一种着重宏观、长期利益而非微观、短期利益的评价方法。     

简析基于全寿命周期分析的项目成本控制模型

本文对房地产进行建筑全寿命周期的开发过程中对各项目内容成本控制进行了分析与阐述。根据全寿命周期的控制目标进行各阶段项目工作内容的分析且对成本的控制带来的效益进行了综合阐述。     

全寿命周期成本管理实施的障碍和对策

全寿命周期成本管理作为一种全新的成本管理方法,能更好地适应现代企业管理的要求和社会发展的需要,但是在实际中并没有得到很好的推广和应用。本文首先阐述了全寿命周期成本管理的优势,然后分析了全寿命周期成本管理实施的障碍,最后提出了积极推行全寿命周期成本管理的对策。     

浅谈变电站土建全寿命周期设计

变电站全寿命周期设计的核心是运用全寿命周期理论和方法,将全部设计要素综合集成,进行专项设计和整体优化,实现变电站系统整体最优。为满足全寿命周期目标,本文重点对变电站土建设计中混凝土结构耐久性设计问题进行了分析,以供参考。     

资产全寿命周期管理方法简要评述

近几年来的大量研究成果表明,资产全寿命周期管理方法已经成为资产管理领域关注的焦点。通过文献梳理发现,该方法主要用于机器设备资产寿命周期内的全面管理。基于此,立足于资产全寿命周期的主要研究内容,即设备的可靠性、可维修性与经济性进行探讨,对机器设备资产的寿命周期成本与维修策略进行研究,对已有的比较有代表性的国内外资产全寿命周期管理的研究成果进行简要的评述。首先,对机器设备资产寿命周期内的费用估算和分析方法进行了总结和回顾,主要就设备资产寿命周期的费用划分、费用估算方法进行了总结和阐述,为以后寿命周期费用的估算方法的选择和改进提出了改进意见。其次,针对机器设备资产全寿命周期内的维修计划和维修策略进行了总结和陈述,分析了维修计划制定的原则和方法,并针对已有的维修策略特点进行对比分析。在总结已有研究成果的基础上,结合电网企业的实际应用,对未来研究的发展趋势进行展望。     

高速公路工程集成管理的关键理论及方法

针对高速公路工程的特点,提出了高速公路工程集成管理模式。重点介绍了实现集成管理的三项关键理论及方法:通过项目分解结构技术进行项目系统分析;运用工程全寿命周期设计的理论和方法实现全部工程要素的全寿命周期集成;应用全寿命周期费用矩阵分析模型实现工程费用集成管理。上述成果已应用于某高速公路扩建工程实践。     

秸秆气化发电系统的生命周期评价研究

本文以2MW秸秆简单气化—内燃机发电系统为具体研究对象,建立了基于生命周期分析方法的数学模型和支撑数据库,对系统边界、环境影响指标、决定系统环境性的重要参数进行了讨论。同时,对秸秆气化发电系统进行了生命周期评价,全面分析了秸秆气化发电过程中不同排放物和能源消耗对环境的影响。最后,得出秸秆气化发电是一种环境友好型的能源生产方式,发展秸秆气化发电要注意对其排放物的处理等结论。     

考虑风光出力不确定性的含电制氢装置的电-气耦合配网系统经济运行分析

高效节能的电-气耦合配网系统能够同时考虑经济效益和环境成本,对提升配电网系统的经济性具有重要作用。本文提出了一个两阶段分布式鲁棒优化模型来解决经济运行问题,运用Wasserstein测度刻画风光出力预测误差概率分布的模糊不确定集,并构建了考虑风光出力不确定性的含电制氢装置的电-气联合系统分布式鲁棒优化运行模型。仿真结果表明：①电制氢装置的引入可以有效改善配网系统的电-气耦合,提高系统运行的稳定性和经济性。②考虑到环境成本,含电制氢装置的电-气耦合配网系统的污染物排放显著降低,保证了系统的低碳运行。③分布式鲁棒优化（distributionally robust optimization,DRO）模型能够抵抗不确定风电和光伏输出的干扰,保守性和计算复杂度相对较低,具有数据驱动的特点。     

Separating early-adopters from the majority: The case of Broadband Internet access in Korea

This paper examines key static determinants and dynamic diffusion processes to develop a diffusion model of network products from the case of rapid growth of Broadband Internet in Korea. In the competitive environment of shortening product life cycle, there have been few studies on the key factors affecting the rapid and dynamic diffusion of network products. This paper identifies that market and technological factors have had a great impact on the explosive diffusion speed, while government and socio-cultural factors moderately contributed to the rapid diffusion. This paper also explores the dynamic diffusion processes: diffusion for the early-adopter and diffusion for the majority. Finally, theoretical propositions are developed on the diffusion of innovation for network products and practical implications for expediting the diffusion of emerging technologies are discussed.     

The industrial life cycle of wind energy electrical power generation: ARI methodology modeling of life cycle dynamics

This innovation assessment addresses the factors that have influenced the exceptionally lengthy industrial technology life cycle of wind electrical power generation since its inception in the late 19th Century. It then applies the recently developed Accelerated Radical Innovation (ARI) Model to understand the dynamics of this innovation compared to those of other major 18th-20th Century innovations.Despite market pull in the late 19th Century to link small DC electrical generators with hundreds of thousands of existing wind mills used for mechanical water pumping, several factors prevented this from happening. These include the intermittent nature of wind electrical generation requiring low cost battery storage and DC-AC conversion, and the shift in the 1890s from DC to superior AC electrical generation making possible economies of scale for delivering AC electricity long distances over the grid from large hydroelectric and coal fired plants. As a consequence, wind generated electricity remained primarily a technological development until the first energy crisis in the 1970s.Development of an extensive science and technology base for wind turbine dynamics, and deployment since 2000 of commercial scale wind turbines (> 1MW) have elevated wind electrical power generation to commercial practicality, as described in two earlier papers by the authors applying technical cost modeling and experience curve projections of cost of energy (COE) to explore the economic viability of large scale wind electricity generation.. Strongly promoted by wind energy communities of practice in Europe, North America and Asia, normative COE projections suggest that by 2020 wind electrical power will be cost competitive, without tax incentives, with electricity from conventional fossil and nuclear fuel sources.Overcoming technological, business, market, societal, networking and political hurdles to date has required 120years of development to establish wind electricity generation as a breakthrough innovation with the capability to capture 20% of the world electricity market by the mid-to-late 21st Century. Further growth and maturation is expected to continue to 2100, corresponding to a projected ≅ 210year overall industry life cycle at market saturation. This finding has profound implications for innovation theory and practice, since the length of this life cycle exceeds by a factor of ≅ 4 the average life cycle diagnosed for five industrial revolutions and four key 20th Century innovations. The new ARI model provides a holistic approach to understanding the dynamics of the industrial technology life cycle for a wide variety of radical innovations as well as wind electrical power.     

Distributional effects of social security reforms: The case of France

This paper assesses the impact of two social security reforms using a calibrated, dynamic life cycle model. It quantifies the long‐run distributional impact of two sets of reforms in France: (1) the 2013 reform of Prime Minister Ayrault, which modified the parameters of a defined benefit (DB) plan, and (2) a hypothetical reform that changes the system to a notional defined contribution (NDC) plan, similar to that in Italy. First, on aggregate welfare, the Ayrault reform and the hypothetical switch to NDC yield contrasting results. The Ayrault reform improves aggregate welfare, which is not the case for the NDC reform. Welfare comparisons are made with respect to the “benchmark economy,” where increases in life expectancy occur and are dealt with only through a higher contribution rate. Second, both reforms yield unequal distributions of welfare changes, with low‐skill workers on the losing end. Under the Ayrault reform, low‐skill workers delay retirement by two years, to age 62. Under NDC reform, pensions for low‐skill workers fall substantially as inequalities during the work life translate directly into inequalities in pensions. The switch to an NDC scheme leads to a more unequal society in terms of asset and welfare distribution.     

基于BARY曲线的基本电价测算模型研究

本文针对目前两部制电价中基本电费按容量计费导致基本电价水平偏低、不能合理配置电力资源的问题,以长期边际成本理论为基础,结合描述电力系统负荷特性同时率与负荷率关系的BARY经验曲线,构建了容量成本在基本电费和电度电费中的分摊模型,并用某市电力局提供的有关数据,依据该模型测算了按电压等级和负荷特性划分的分类用户的基本电价。结果表明,该模型是确定基本电价的一种可行工具。     

基于全寿命周期分析的电力设备费用模型

针对我国供电企业的实际情况,将电力设备费用分为一次投资费用和运行维护费用两部分,建立了电力设备全寿命周期费用定量模型。针对一次投资费用的特点,建立了基于时间分摊的一次投资费用模型;针对运行维护费用长期发生的特点,建立了基于灰色关联度确定分布类型的运行维护费用模型。同时,将两个费用模型综合考虑,建立了供电企业电力设备全寿命周期费用模型,据此可计算电力设备全寿命周期最小费用和最佳使用寿命。最后,以某变电站综合自动化项目为例,验证了该模型的有效性。     

基于ANFIS和GA的多级分销链预测模型

为提高分销链企业的预测水平,优化分销链中各级企业库存管理,提出了基于自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)的单级预测模型和成本目标函数的多级预测模型。利用ANFIS模糊推理机制实现了其输入层与输出层间的非线性映射及该神经网络的信息存储和学习能力。从分销链整体成本优化的角度建立了多级预测模型并应用遗传算法(GA)进行求解。仿真结果表明,ANFIS与BP神经网络相比具有较高的准确性;在一定程度上改善了分销链中订货信息多级放大的现象。     

电力产业化解两难困境的经济学研究

从供需均衡角度分析了长期困扰中国电力产业的两难困境(电力短缺和电价过高),而产生两难困境的根源在于垂直一体化垄断;尽管电力体制改革在一定程度上打破了这种垄断,但是电网公司的输配售一体化垄断仍然成为化解两难困境的梗阻;通过网售分开,在电力产业构建充分竞争的电力市场,有效降低电力的生产和零售成本,成本的降低推动供给曲线向右下方平移,在其他条件不变的前提下实现既降低电价又增加电量的目的,从而有效化解两难困境。