国际收支失衡条件下我国货币政策的有效性研究

在开放经济条件下,国际收支活动对国内的货币供给将产生巨大影响。我国目前国际收支中存在经常项目和资本项目双顺差的情况。那么国际收支失衡的条件下,货币当局应该采用什么样的货币政策中介目标,采用什么样的政策工具才能保证宏观调控目标的时间,就成为亟待研究的理论和现实课题。     

国际收支顺差条件下 紧缩性货币政策对国际收支的影响

由于近来的通货膨胀，央行采取了紧缩性的货币政策。本文运用货币论的分析方法讨论在静态和动态条件下，紧缩性货币政策对国际收支的影响。并实证分析了近来人民币的利率水平、货币供应量，运用计量方法分析了外汇储备与货币供应量的关系。通过分析得出了结论并提出了政策建议。     

特朗普政策能否对中国资本项目开放度造成冲击?:理论与实证

中国是国际上少数尚未实现币种自由兑换的大国。2017年唐纳德·特朗普当选新一任美国总统,其三项主张"退出TPP、提高对华关税及指控央行操控汇率"与中国稳健开放资本项目密切相关。文章根据IMF《汇兑安排与汇兑限制年报》并结合特朗普政策,分析了人民币资本项目对外开放的现状和特征,并构建理论模型讨论了特朗普各项政策对资本项目开放性的影响机理,再运用1982~2016年度数据,结合Bayesian-VAR模型实证分析了特朗普政策对我国资本项目开放度长期协整关系和短期影响冲击。研究发现:(1)从退出TPP角度考虑特朗普政策会对人民币资本项目开放度产生正向冲击,而关税提高和汇率指控会对人民币资本项目产生负向冲击;(2)特朗普不同政策对我国不同技术行业和地区的影响冲击具有显著差异性,高技术行业受到冲击向均衡水平恢复的时间更长,而经常账户冲击对低技术行业影响更大,FDI和证券投资冲击对东部地区影响更大而对中西部地区影响相近,经常账户冲击对东西部地区影响相近而对中部地区影响较弱。     

特朗普政策能否对中国资本项目开放度造成冲击?:理论与实证北大核心CSSCISSCI

中国是国际上少数尚未实现币种自由兑换的大国。2017年唐纳德·特朗普当选新一任美国总统,其三项主张"退出TPP、提高对华关税及指控央行操控汇率"与中国稳健开放资本项目密切相关。文章根据IMF《汇兑安排与汇兑限制年报》并结合特朗普政策,分析了人民币资本项目对外开放的现状和特征,并构建理论模型讨论了特朗普各项政策对资本项目开放性的影响机理,再运用1982~2016年度数据,结合Bayesian-VAR模型实证分析了特朗普政策对我国资本项目开放度长期协整关系和短期影响冲击。研究发现:(1)从退出TPP角度考虑特朗普政策会对人民币资本项目开放度产生正向冲击,而关税提高和汇率指控会对人民币资本项目产生负向冲击;(2)特朗普不同政策对我国不同技术行业和地区的影响冲击具有显著差异性,高技术行业受到冲击向均衡水平恢复的时间更长,而经常账户冲击对低技术行业影响更大,FDI和证券投资冲击对东部地区影响更大而对中西部地区影响相近,经常账户冲击对东西部地区影响相近而对中部地区影响较弱。     

紧缩性宏观调控冲击商业银行经营

为抑制货币信贷过快增长，加强银行体系流动性管理，促进国民经济健康发展，今年来央行采取了适度从紧的货币政策。前10个月，央行先后5次上调存贷款基准利率，一年期存款基；隹利率由252％上调至3．87％，一年期贷款基准利率由612％上调至7．29％，发行央行票据3．84万亿元，1至11月央行还先后9次调升存款准备金率，将法定存款准备金率由9％调升至13．5％的历史高位。此外，相关部门还通过发行0．8万亿元特别国债等措施紧缩银行体系过剩流动性。尽管如此，由于经常项目和资本项目国际收支双顺差的持续，我国流动性过剩形势依然严峻，经济增长仍存在由偏快转向过热的苗头，紧缩性调控措施还会进一步出台，这无疑对还处于转型中的我国商业银行经营会产生重大影响。     

新型国际分工、国际收支失衡与金融创新

在20世纪90年代以后,世界上主要国家的国际收支失衡得到了非常广泛的关注.很多学者认为金融发展包括金融一体化、金融深化和国家之间的金融异质性是这次失衡得以持续的重要原因.本文认为金融创新作为金融发展的动力或源泉促进了国家在制造业和金融业的分工.具有金融业比较优势的国家容易产生经常项目的赤字,具有制造业比较优势的国家容易产生经常项目的盈余.全球数据的检验结果进一步验证了国际分工对全球国际收支失衡的影响.     

货币紧缩政策对上市公司投资行为的影响——基于不同行业的研究

2006年以来,央行一直实行紧缩性货币政策,对我国不同行业上市公司的投资行为产生了一定影响。文章基于2007~2014年上市公司面板数据,研究发现紧缩性货币政策会降低公司内部流动性;对全部上市公司的投资行为无显著影响,但分行业研究时,会导致大部分行业上市公司投资行为的缩减;信息传输软件和信息技术服务业上市公司的投资行为对货币政策最敏感,其次为农林牧渔业和采矿业;公司内部经营活动产生的现金流对上市公司的投资行为影响更大。研究结果为央行使用宏观货币政策工具和企业调整微观财务政策提供了支持。     

中国内外均衡政策搭配研究——基于人民币篮子汇率制度

本文基于人民币篮子汇率制度,采用修正的M—F模型研究了在人民币升值时财政和货币政策的使用效果,得出财政政策的使用效果较货币政策更为明显,搭配使用财政和货币政策比单一运用一项政策的理论结果要好,并可以选择扩张性财政政策搭配紧缩性货币政策或者紧缩性财政政策搭配紧缩性货币政策。     

我国通货膨胀是长期记忆性过程吗?

通货膨胀过程平稳与否对央行制定货币政策会产生重要影响。本文以1986年1月至2005年12月我国月度CPI通货膨胀率为研究对象，利用ARFIMA—FI—GARCH模型，发现我国通货膨胀及其波动都是长期记忆性过程，表明通胀及波动冲击的影响均具有长期记忆性扣持续性，但都呈均值复归。央行在制定货币政策时以及分析价格传导机制时应考虑通货膨胀的这些特性。     

量化宽松政策对中美通货膨胀的差异影响研究

本文首先运用结构向量自回归模型(SVAR)证明了美国量化宽松政策对中美通货膨胀的影响差异,即量化宽松货币政策对中国通货膨胀的溢出效应强于对美国国内物价的直接影响;然后从资本项目和经常项目渠道发现,资本项目传导较快但经常项目传导时滞较长,而中国货币政策独立性弱和对外依赖度过高是造成其影响差异的主要原因。     

双重身份的困扰:贸易“大国”和金融“小国”

本文基于宏观经济学的基本原理揭示了今天中国货币流动性过剩的根本原因在于对外经济依存的经济结构这一问题的本质,同时阐明了目前还处于金融小国阶段的中国经济对改变目前这种现状的艰难性和受这种现状冲击的危害性。在比较了三种可选择的方案后,论文提出了和谐的国内经济结构调整和金融、汇率制度改革应先于资本账户开放的战略。     

Macro policy in the tropics: How sensible people stand

A model for macro policy analysis is set out, incorporating an inflation theory based on distributional conflict, output and current account adjustment mechanisms, and the money market. Classic structuralist results about contractionary devaluation and stagflationary monetary restriction are derived. Alternative closures of the model are considered — monetarism and external strangulation (or foreign exchange bonanzas) — and it is extended to deal with interest rate reform. Short-term stabilization issues are analyzed — monetary and fiscal policy, import quotas and export subsidies as opposed to devaluation, financial market complications, food subsidies and public sector pricing, and orthodox and heterodox anti-inflationary programs. Finally, medium-term processes of inflation, distribution and growth are described. An example of an irreversible contractionary shock which leads the economy from a distributionally favorable to an unfavorable steady state is presented.     

Vanishing of China's Twin Surpluses and Its Policy Implications

This paper argues that the twin surpluses in China's balance of payments will disappear in the future as a result of external and internal structural changes. China's current account surplus will diminish as a result of the decline in the goods trade surplus, the expanding service trade deficit and negative investment income. China's capital account might shift from surplus to deficit as a result of shrinking net direct investment inflows and more volatile short‐term capital flows. When the twin surpluses no longer exist, the normalization of the US treasury bond yields will be sped up, terminating the one‐way appreciation of the RMB exchange rate; the People's Bank of China's pressure to sterilize inflows will be alleviated, and new problems for the People's Bank of China's monetary operation will emerge; new financial vulnerabilities for the Chinese economy will arise. Finally, the present paper provides some policy suggestions for the Chinese Government to deal with the declining twin surpluses.     

Direct and Spillover Effects of Unconventional Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

This paper explores the direct effects and spillovers of unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies. We find that official purchases of foreign assets have a large positive effect on a country’s current account that diminishes considerably as capital mobility rises. There is an important additional effect through the lagged stock of official assets. Official purchases of domestic assets, or quantitative easing (QE), appear to have no significant effect on a country’s current account when capital mobility is high, but there is a modest positive impact when capital mobility is low. The effects of purchases of foreign assets spill over to other countries in proportion to their degree of international financial integration. We also find that increases in US bond yields are associated with increases in foreign bond yields and in stock prices, as well as with depreciations of foreign currencies, but that all of these effects are smaller on days of US unconventional monetary policy announcements. We develop a theoretical model that is broadly consistent with our empirical results and that highlights the potential usefulness of domestic unconventional policies as responses to the effects of foreign policies of a similar type.     

Will the Sarb always Succeed in Fighting Inflation with Contractionary Policy?

The conventional view is that a monetary policy shock has both supply‐side and demand‐side effects, at least in the short run. Barth and Ramey show that the supply‐side effect of a monetary policy shock may be greater than the demand‐side effect. We argue that it is crucial for monetary authorities to understand whether an increase in expected future inflation is due to supply shocks or demand shocks before applying contractionary policy to forestall inflation. We estimate a standard New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with the cost channel of monetary policy for the South African economy to show that whether the South African Reserve Bank should apply contractionary policy to fight inflation depends critically on the nature of the disturbance. If an increase in expected future inflation is mainly due to supply shocks, the South African Reserve Bank should not apply contractionary policy to fight inflation, as this would lead to a persistent increase in inflation and a greater loss in output. Our estimation results also show that with a moderate level of cost‐channel effect and nominal rigidities, a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with the cost channel of monetary policy is able to mimic the price puzzle produced by an estimated vector autoregressive model.     

Taiwan's External Imbalance and Structural Adjustment: A General Equilibrium Analysis*

Taiwan's trade surplus reached about one-fifth of GNP by 1986, becoming the source of attention and criticism from the international community. Realizing it is to her own benefit to reduce the surplus, and also in order to ease outside pressure, Taiwan started to take measures of macroeconomic adjustments, including currency appreciation and expansionary fiscal policies. Trade surplus was reduced to 8.1% of GNP by 1989, as a result of increases in domestic demand accompanied by decreases in demand from abroad. At the same time the sectoral structure of Taiwan's economy changed: the share of non-tradable sectors (mainly construction and services) expanded while that of the tradable ones (agriculture and manufacturing) shrank. This paper uses a 27-sector computable general equilibrium model to investigate the comparative statics of changes in Taiwan's fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies in 1989. Results of the model's counter factual policy simulations indicate expansionary fiscal and monetary policies are effective in reducing the external imbalance. In particular if public investment and money supply were raised by respectively 20% and 10% above the actual values, current account surplus as a percentage of GNP could be reduced from 8.52% to 6.91% in that year, and resources shifts from the tradable to the non-tradable sectors would be strengthened. They also indicate that to achieve a given target of reduction in external imbalance, there are trade-offs between expansionary fiscal policies and currency appreciation and between expansionary monetary policies and currency appreciation. For instance to reduce the current account surplus ratio to 5.04 of GNP, a 15% (10%) increase in public investment (money supply) would have to be accompanied by a 31% (29%) appreciation of the nominal effective exchange rate.     

Monetary Policy and the Diversification–Profitability Linkage in Banking: Evidences from Emerging Market Economies

In previous studies, the stance of monetary policy is proven to associate with banking profitability or activities. This paper provides empirical evidence aiming at the influence of monetary policy, including stances of expansionary and contractionary monetary policies, on the relationship between banks' income diversification and their profitabilities in emerging market economies. We find the significant evidence that expansionary monetary policies can raise banks' diversification efforts, whereas contractionary monetary policies weaken the efforts of banking diversification, for which our most robustness tests support these findings. There are some relevant implications and suggestions for bank managers and policymakers.     

Devaluation, Capital Formation, and the Current Account

This paper re-examines the effects of devaluation and a rise in the rate of devaluation on capital formation and the current account in an optimizing monetary model of a small open economy with endogenous labor, investment with adjustment costs, and perfect capital mobility. It is shown that devaluation leads to capital accumulation and a current-account deficit in the long run and during the adjustment process, whereas a rise in the rate of devaluation has an ambiguous impact on capital formation and the current account depending on the relationship between consumption and real balances in the utility function. If consumption and real balances are separable or complements, then a rise in the rate of devaluation produces capital decumulation and a current-account surplus in the long run as well as on the transition path. These results stand in sharp contrast with Calvo (1981). JEL Classification Numbers: F41     

我国紧缩性生货币政策的局限性

本文分析了紧缩性货币政策在人民币升值预期下对抑制流动性过剩、通货膨胀、资产价格上涨的作用及其对实体经济产生的影响,提出在货币政策调控存在着两难选择的情况下,应以市场手段促进资本市场的发展,以优先保护实体经济的正常发展。