进化博弈论对我国股市投资者类型动态均衡的深层透析

目前我国股市投资者多为非理性投资者,这使进化博弈论的"有限理性"比传统金融理论和主流博弈论的"完全理性"的假设更符合我国现实股市投资决策行为.用之对投资者类型进行动态均衡分析得出:经济利益是模仿投资行为的驱动力;非理性与理性投资策略的动态均衡比例取决于投资比例;投资者理性越高,达到均衡的速度越快.因此,证券监管部门应完善市场机制,大力培养发展机构投资者,创新与完善股市和证券市场的规章制度,开展投资者教育,创新投资工具,增加投资品种.     

个体投资者行为对股票市场的影响

我国正处于社会经济转型时期,体制和政策具有一定的特殊性,如果直接引用西方的金融理论来解释股票市场现状是不准确的。在此基础上,我们需要对我国的投资者进行有效的调查和研究。与发达国家相比,我国股市之所以不稳定,体现在资本市场的不稳定。我国股票市场的主要力量是个体投资者,个体与机构相比,缺乏投资经验和对股市的深刻认识。为此,我们对不同层次的个体投资者的市场行为进行了调查,这为研究投资者行为对市场的影响提供了依据。本文主要对影响股票市场波动的个体投资者行为进行了初步研究,机构投资者对股票市场的具体影响以及其他社会环境因素的影响则需要进一步研究。     

中国股市过度自信现象的实证研究

行为金融理论认为投资者存在过度自信的认知偏差,其投资决策会产生偏差。本文运用深圳和上海股票市场1995—2009年的股市指数日收益率和交易量研究我国股市投资者的过度自信现象。结果表明,中国股票市场的投资者存在过度自信的行为,在牛市阶段过度自信的程度要大于熊市;过度自信使投资者过度交易,从而导致市场交易量显著的增加;此外,市场行情迅速而剧烈的转变对投资者过度自信程度的改变有非常明显的影响。     

行为金融学角度下我国证券市场投资方法研究

阐述了行为金融的主要理论,比较分析了传统金融与行为金融的区别;基于行为金融学的行为投资分析方法从投资者心理和行为的角度来解释证券市场运行的行为特点,并介绍行为金融学在我国证券市场中的应用,为我国投资者提出一些有针对性的投资策略。     

机构投资者投资行为对我国证券市场稳定性影响研究

从机构投资者的一般投资行为特征来看,机构投资者的确能对维护证券市场的稳定起到积极的作用,然而我国证券市场投机氛围比较严重,机构投资者的不规范投资行为、投资理念的缺失,机构投资者之间的羊群效应以及内幕交易这些问题的存在,导致机构投资者不但没有对我国的证券市场起到稳定作用,反而加剧了市场的波动。降低市场准入门槛,引入竞争机制;指导机构投资者建立科学的治理结构;完善相关法律制度不失为一个明智的选择。     

股票市场的行为金融学分析

传统的金融学理论讲授了各种各样的方法来解释证券市场,但是从目前情况来看传统理论已经没办法解释证券市场的“异常现象”。所以,许多金融学家们打算另辟蹊径,换一个新的视角来分析引起股票等金融波动的投资者的心理状态,也就是说运用行为金融学的相关知识来解释股票价格的波动。本文也是运用行为金融学的一些相关基本理论,特别是股票投资者非理性心理现象,对这些心理因素进行分析,进而分析其对股票市场的影响,进而论述对我国股票市场的现象进行深入细致分析,提出解决问题的建议,给投资者提高参考建议。     

主力投资行为的残差分析

股票市场上的投资者可分为两大部分 ,一部分是各类机构投资者 ,或称为主力投资者 ;另一部分是广大散户投资者。无庸置疑 ,股市历来是二者博弈的场所 ,资本利得也是二者博弈的结果。因此 ,分析主力投资行为特征 ,掌握主力的炒作时间 ,对广大散户投资者来说意义重大 ,运用残差分析 ,将主力投资行为特征从股指影响中分离出来 ,定量研判 ,给散户投资者提供一种科学的投资分析方法。     

机构投资者的羊群行为与中国股票市场动向相关性研究

投资者的羊群行为一直被认为是导致股票市场剧烈波动和引发市场系统风险的一个重要原因。我国股票市场机构投资者也存在较严重的羊群行为,并且给我国股市带来很大的负面影响。     

行为金融理论对我国股票市场证券投资影响研究

从20世纪90年代起步至今中国股票市场已经有十余年的发展历史。中国股票市场经过十余年的快速发展已经具有相当的规模,其中对资源的有效配置起着日益重要的作用。与西方股票市场相比,我国的股票市场仍然是一个新兴的市场,而且在许多方面尚未成熟。运用已有的行为金融理论来检验我国证券市场中是否存在行为金融现象,提出相应的投资策略是本文研究的出发点。     

机构投资者投资行为与股票价格波动相关性分析

机构投资者是现代资本市场的重要参与者,与一般的中小投资者有着显著的差别,其投资行为对股市稳定性的影响也不同于小投资者。通常的观点,小投资者入市更多是一种投机心理,容易导致市场的大起大落,不利于股票市场的稳定,而机构投资者对股票市场稳定性的影响就有更多的可能。     

浅析价值投资

本文介绍了价值投资理论的主要内容,指出了普通投资者对该理论的误解之处,并且结合中国股市的实际情况讨论了价值投资在中国应用的局限性,指出了中国股市的设计缺陷,导致股市一直无法健康发展,希望能对普通投资者有所帮助。     

The asymmetric effect of warranty payments on firm value: The moderating role of advertising,R&D,and industry concentration

Changes in firms’ warranty payments are informative signals that enable investors to form timely expectations about potential changes in product quality. The authors’ survey shows that warranty payments affect potential investors’ product quality assessments and stock investment likelihood. Their quantitative analysis reveals an asymmetric stock market reaction: unanticipated increases in warranty payments (which signal quality “losses”) lower stock returns but unanticipated decreases do not affect stock returns. Two important factors moderate this relationship. First, boosting advertising spending attenuates the negative stock return effect of unanticipated increases in warranty payments. Second, unanticipated decreases in warranty payments, which signal quality “gains”, translate into higher stock returns when the industry has become less concentrated. Interestingly, changes in R&D spending do not moderate investors’ response to unanticipated increases or decreases in warranty payments. The authors advise firms to use advertising to lessen the harm from warranty payment increases and to strongly communicate warranty payment decreases in the face of intensified competition. The authors also caution that offering warranties in general does not ensure greater firm value as declining quality firms that myopically offer warranty programs experience lower firm value than those that do not provide warranties.     

机构投资者实地调研与投资-股价敏感性——基于管理层学习效应视角

文章利用2013-2018年深圳证券交易所上市公司的数据,实证检验了机构投资者实地调研对投资-股价敏感性的影响。研究发现机构投资者实地调研提高了公司投资-股价敏感性,在股价信息含量越高时,机构投资者实地调研对公司投资-股价敏感性的影响越显著,表明投资者实地调研通过信息反馈效应中的“挤入渠道”增强了管理层向市场的学习行为,机构投资者实地调研对投资-股价敏感性的影响在管理层持股的上市公司中更为显著。研究结果表明机构投资者实地调研可帮助上市公司管理层获取更多决策有用信息,提升资源配置效率,对于完善机构投资者调研制度、提升我国资本市场信息效率具有一定的实践价值。     

我国股市过度投机下个体证券投资者行为分析

过度投机是我国股市的现状,而研究这种状况下投资者采取何种投资策略,对于其能否克服投机行为带来的风险,并进而利用其他投资者的行为来获取收益至关重要。文章从行为金融的角度去研究个体投资者的交易行为,深入考察了中国个体证券投资者行为的主要特点,并分析其行为的决定因素。在此基础上提出个体证券投资者在交易中应该采取的有效投资策略。     

量变中寻求质变——对基金市场扩容的一点认识

近期基金市场迎未了第三次扩容,基金规模也迅速扩大。这次扩容管理层目的在于大力扶持机构投资者,增强证券市场稳定性,然而从目前二级市场表现看,这一政策值得商榷,在量变中寻求质变,加强外部环境的改善以及基金管理公司内部的整合是主要关键。     

The gambling preference and stock price: Evidence from China's stock market

Considering the strong gambling preference of retail investors in emerging markets and using the data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2000 to 2018, this paper constructs an index of investor's gambling preference based on the theory of explicit preference and develops a factor model to capture the risk premium of gambling by introducing gambling factors. The results show that the factor model not only fits the gambling characteristics of the Chinese stock market well but also has strong explanatory power for common market anomalies. Through the index of capital gains over-hang (Wang et al., 2016), this paper further finds that facing different degrees of losses, investors will show different gambling preferences. The factor model also shows stronger explanatory power in the sample with more losses, revealing the investment characteristics of retail investors that the more you gamble and the more you lose. This study would be meaningful for exploring behavioral pricing factors, understanding emerging stock markets and supporting investment practice.     

中国证券投资基金羊群行为研究

羊群行为是金融市场上一种特殊的非理性行为,证券市场上的羊群行为会影响证券的价格,带来了证券价格过度的波动和市场的脆弱性。通过对证券投资基金投资行为进行测度,发现证券投资基金中有较重的羊群行为。单纯发展机构投资者并不能起到平抑股价,恢复市场理性的作用。     

机构投资者的羊群行为能降低投资风险吗?——来自中国上市公司的证据

机构投资者的羊群行为对投资风险影响的实证分析结果表明: 机构投资者存在羊群行为,卖出羊群行为的程度大于买入羊群行为的程度,而且卖出羊群行为加大了投资风险、降低了投资回报率; 买入羊群行为减少了投资风险、提高了投资回报率。因此,加大监管机构投资者卖出羊群行为有利于降低投资风险,并促进证券市场稳定发展。     

Influence of dividend tax policy tied to investment horizon on stock price stability: Evidence from the 2015 dividend tax reform in China

We examine how the dividend tax cut policy tied to the investment horizon enforced on September 8, 2015, influences stock price stability in China's A-share market. As the new dividend tax policy waives the tax on cash dividends for investors holding a stock for more than a year, it encourages long-term investment behavior. From 2013 to 2017, we find that stock turnover, return volatility, and turnover volatility decrease after the policy enforcement, especially for stocks with high dividend yields. This result shows that dividend tax reforms increase investors' stock investment horizons and help stabilize the market. However, our findings demonstrate that stock crash risk increases after policy enforcement. Further analysis shows that earnings management through real activities manipulation for stocks with a higher dividend yield contributes to an increase in stock crash risk. Therefore, one externality of the dividend tax cut policy tied to the investment horizon is that top managers of firms with a higher dividend yield may take advantage of investors' passive longer-term investment behavior and engage in more earnings management. This result suggests that regulatory agencies should pay attention to top managers' earnings management behavior after enacting policies that encourage long-term investment.     

The Economic Psychology of Stock Market Bubbles in China

The Chinese stock markets were extremely volatile during the period 2005–08. The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Composite Index increased more than sixfold from 1,012 in 2005 to 6,124 by the end of 2007. It then declined continuously to reach a low of 1,929 on 17 September 2008, or a drop of 70 per cent from its peak in less than 10 months. Although the market downturn may have been affected by the financial crisis in the United States and the rest of the world, the extreme fluctuations of stock prices signify a big market bubble, and the burst of that bubble must be explained by intrinsic characteristics or the economic psychology of Chinese investors. Based on a detailed market data analysis, this paper attributes the development of the stock market bubble to three key psychological factors: ‘greed’, ‘envy’ and ‘speculation’, and the burst of the bubble to three contrasting factors: ‘fear’, ‘lack of confidence’ and ‘disappointment’. It concludes that only after Chinese companies become really commercialised and profitable and investors become rational can the stock markets become stable without extreme volatility as seen in the past. Government policies can play a role in soothing market volatility detrimental to shareholders and the wider economy, but investors should not depend on government for making their own investment decisions.