国际贸易投资一体化对经济增长的传导机制

该文通过对新经济增长理论关于经济增长因素的分析，研究了国际贸易投资一体化对经济增长的传导机制，分析了国际贸易投资一体化对经济增长传导机制的障碍，提出了进一步研究的重点。     

金融发展对经济增长的缓释效应及其实现机制

使用系统广义矩估计方法,选取我国省级面板数据,通过实证检验刻画金融发展对经济增长的缓释效应及其实现机制。实证结果表明:在经济政策不确定性条件下,金融发展对经济增长的正向作用形成了独特的缓释效应,选择替代变量进行稳健性检验后依然显著存在。渠道检验显示:缓释效应主要通过金融摩擦渠道和投资渠道进行传导。进一步检验发现:不同经济发展水平和不同产业结构的地区的缓释效应存在差异,在中西部和东北地区的作用效果相对更大,第三产业占比较高的地区影响更强。为此,应重视我国各地区金融发展的积极作用,大力推进金融供给侧结构性改革,在新时代发挥好金融发展对经济增长的缓释功能。     

金融一体化对经济增长的影响

本文主要验证以本国持有的外国资产、本国的对外负债、本国对外国的直接投资和外商直接投资各自占GDP的比重衡量的金融一体化对经济增长的影响.在收集了72个国家1980-2005年的数据后,本文构造了一个动态面板数据模型.基于系统GMM的估计结果表明:(1)在衡量金融一体化的四个指标中,只有外商直接投资对经济增长有着显著的正向影响,其他三个指标均不能通过显著性检验;(2)对外直接投资更加有利于发达国家的经济增长,而外商直接投资则更有利于发展中国家的经济增长;(3)金融一体化程度高的发展中国家比金融一体化程度低的发展中国家在金融一体化过程中获得了更多的经济利益.     

外商直接投资在中国、美国的经济增长效应比较分析

外商直接投资(FDI)通过在短期内影响投资、消费、净出口等即期需求的变化和长期内影响生产能力和供给能力的变化,进而影响经济增长。本文通过理论模型、计量模型分析(SAS①软件)以及FDI在中、美两国经济效应的比较分析得出在短期内FDI对中国经济的影响大于美国,而在长期内两者都有不同程度的促进效应。通过比较本文还强调了FDI对中国经济带来的负面效应及其原因分析,并提出了一些建议。     

FDI对甘肃省经济增长的效应分析——基于1990至2009年数据的实证研究

FDI对东道国经济发展具有积极作用,加快吸收FDI是促进区域经济增长的一条重要途径。本文选取甘肃省1990至2009年的数据,研究FDI对其经济增长的短期和长期效应。结果表明：由于外商直接投资在总投资中所占比重较小,其短期内效应非常微弱。从长期效应来看,FDI对经济增长具有正向积极作用,是短期效应的3倍多,但这种促进作用与人们的期望值相差较大。     

美国经济波动对中国经济增长的影响及其传导机制研究

在开放经济条件下,一国的经济波动会通过国际贸易、国际投资等资本的跨国流动传导到别的国家。鉴于美国已经成为中国主要的贸易伙伴和FDI来源国,其经济的波动会对中国的经济产生很大的影响,因此本文运用基于VAR模型的广义脉冲响应函数法与方差分解法,在以双边贸易与投资为传导纽带,暗含汇率变化影响的基础上定量分析了美国经济波动对中国经济冲击的长期传导机制和短期动态影响特征。冲击响应分析结果表明,美国经济对中国经济的影响更大,美国经济的波动主要通过影响中国对美国出口的途径对中国经济增长造成冲击;方差分解结果显示,中国经济对美国经济的贡献更大。     

传统文化信念、社会保障与经济增长

本文就儒家传统文化信念对社会保障的经济增长效应的影响及其作用机理进行了经验检验。研究表明,社会保障对长期经济增长具有显著的抑制作用,儒家传统文化信念有助于遏制社会保障对短期经济增长特别是长期经济增长的不利影响。进一步的分析还表明,儒家传统文化信念对社会保障的短期经济增长效应的影响主要通过物质资本积累机制发挥作用,体现在其更有助于削弱社会保障对短期物质资本积累的不利影响;对社会保障的长期经济增长效应的影响则更多地是通过人力资本积累机制发挥作用,体现在其有助于遏制社会保障对长期人力资本积累的负向影响。     

区域扩容能促进新进地区的经济增长吗?——以珠三角城市群为例的合成控制法分析

区域一体化是中国实现经济持续增长的有效途径,而扩容后新进地区能否获得更好的发展关乎区域未来进一步一体化的广度和深度。现有文献鲜少关注区域扩容对新进地区所带来的定量增长影响,且对增长效应的驱动原因及其动态变化尚缺系统的解释框架。结合扩散——回流效应,文章认为市场联系与产业分工是区域扩容影响新进地区的增长效应及其动态变化的重要渠道。以2008年珠三角城市群扩容为例,文章运用合成控制法定量分析对新进城市肇庆市与惠州市的经济增长效应,结果表明：扩容对新进城市的长期经济增长具有显著促进作用,但惠州市在扩容后短期内出现了负面效应。结合实际数据分析发现,惠州市短期出现负面效应的原因,主要是由于扩容后要素和产品市场面临原位城市较大的回流冲击,且产业转移短期效果不佳引起。但从长期看,新进地区可从市场联系和产业分工两个层面获得扩容的外溢增长效应。为降低短期可能的负面效应,应树立区域经济思维,建立统一组织框架,以原位城市产业转移为主要抓手,协调推进市场共建共享与产业优化布局,实现地区整体共赢发展。文章研究识别了区域扩容对新进地区所带来增长效应的一般规律,为推动城市群区域一体化发展提供实践依据。     

交通基础设施投资的经济增长效应研究——以西北5省区为例

基于多维要素对区域经济增长的协同作用,构建交通基础设施投资对区域经济增长的固定效应模型,利用1995—2015年西北地区省级面板数据研究发现:第一,从区域层面来看,1995—2015年间,西北5省区的交通基础设施投资显著,促进了经济增长,影响系数为0.09。第二,从西部大开发战略实施前后的不同阶段来看,交通基础设施的经济增长效应呈增强趋势。具体表现为,1995—1999年间,交通基础设施投资的经济增长效应为正但不显著;2000—2009年间,交通基础设施投资的经济增长效应显著,投资每增长1%,GDP提高0.67个百分点。2010年以后,经济增长效应依然显著并较前一阶段提高0.06个百分点。第三,交通基础设施投资的经济增长效应存在差异性。其中,宁夏的交通基础设施投资对其经济增长贡献度最大,其次,是陕西、甘肃和青海,新疆则出现了不显著的逆向影响。这对西北5省区紧紧抓住新机遇,加大交通基础设施投资力度,具有重要的启示和借鉴意义。     

FDI与经济增长:基于金融市场作用机制的研究——中美两国数据的实证检验

投资环境作为FDI的重要外部因素之一,是近几年FDI理论与实践研究的热点。在FDI的全球跨国经营活动中,其对于东道国经济增长的作用不可避免地受到东道国金融环境的影响。本文从理论上分析了金融市场因素对于FDI促进经济增长的影响,并对中美两国数据进行了实证检验,检验结果表明:由于资本积累效应,FDI对于中国的经济增长起到积极作用。对比美国而言,中国的金融市场未能有效发挥FDI促进经济增长的作用,而美国相对完善的金融市场在一定程度上支持了FDI对经济增长的促进作用。     

Linkages between Trade and Financial Integration and Output Growth in East Asia

The effects of trade, financial and other variables generally seen as indicative of the degree of economic integration on movements in industrial production growth among countries in East Asia are assessed using the common component of movements in industrial production growth in the ASEAN 5 + 3 countries as a business cycle benchmark for the region. The results show the dominance of trade-related variables, as well as the world price of oil, in driving regional industrial production growth. Financial variables, while important, are not as robust.     

Regional integration and cohesion—lessons from Spain and Ireland in the EU

The academic literature on regional integration suggests that the impact of integration is unevenly spread among countries and regions. There is, therefore, a case for some redistributive mechanism, and this is what the EU Structural Funds tries to do. This article considers the role of the EU Structural Funds in Spain and Ireland, of which both countries were major beneficiaries, in facilitating the regional economic adjustment and reducing regional disparities. The article suggests that there were positive redistributive effects, as well as growth effects, but concludes that national, institutional and political configurations determine the distinctive outcome in the two cases. Finally, it considers the wider lessons for regional integration in ASEAN, a regional community of countries with diversity in the levels of regional development.     

Income Convergence in African Countries: Evidence from a Stationary Test With Multiple Structural Breaks

This paper examines the catching‐up (stochastic convergence in real per capita income) hypothesis for 52 African countries with respect to the USA. over the 1969‐2011 period, using a highly flexible stationarity test. The empirical results show (i) that all African countries experienced at least one break, switching between catching‐up and divergence paths during the sample period; (ii) that structural breaks tend to coincide with political instability, trade liberalisation policies and terms of trade shocks; (iii) that among the 52 African countries studied, only five lie on the catching‐up path, while the remaining 47 diverge from the USA. Our results show that the economic performance of African countries fall far behind those of the USA and that the economic growth tragedy of Africa continues.     

International trade and economic growth: evidence from a panel ARDL-PMG approach

The purpose of this work is to study the impact of trade openness on the economic growth of the countries bordering the Mediterranean using a panel of eight countries from 1975 to 2016. We apply ARDL panel which is a technique recently developed. We study the effects of openness to international trade on economic growth while incorporating economic policy variables. The results show that the variables of commercial and financial openness favor economic growth. The free trade agreements that the European Union has signed with certain countries in the Mediterranean basin are designed above all to encourage greater regional economic integration and an increase in their potential growth. Therefore, our findings show that the financial sector is slow to affect economic growth in these countries. This study reveals that human capital and the investment rate support the economic growth of our sample. In addition, we conclude that a process of economic convergence has begun in these countries. A causal analysis was carried out we found an unidirectional causality ranging from economic growth to trade openness.

     

Regional Economic Growth and Spillover Effects： An Analysis of China＇s Pan Pearl River Delta Area

The Pan Pearl River Delta(PPRD) Regional Co-operation Framework Agreement was signed in 2004.It aims to bring prosperity through partnership among nine Chinese Mainland provinces and China ’s two special administrative regions.In this paper,we use a dynamic panel data model to examine the economic growth of the PPRD economies from 1985 to 2009.Our analysis confirms the existence of regional growth spillover effects in the PPRD area.Our results also show that economic growth spillover effects of non-PPRD regions on the PPRD regions are greater than those among the PPRD members themselves.These findings imply that economic integration between Chinese provinces has generated considerable spillover effects on regional growth.However, the anticipated benefits of the implementation of the PPRD agreement have not been realized thus far.Therefore,greater effort should be made to promote further economic integration among these members so that their local economies can benefit from the positive spillover effects.     

How does GVC reconstruction affect economic growth and employment? Analysis of USA–China decoupling

The state of USA–China relations has become increasingly strained. The term ‘decoupling’ has been frequently used within the narrative of USA–China relations to describe the possible outcome of the relationship. A ‘decoupling’ of the USA and Chinese economies would trigger the restructuring of existing Global Value Chains (GVCs). Given this possibility, we use the 2014 World Input–Output Database (WIOD) and the hypothesis extraction method to simulate several scenarios of GVC reconstruction on economic growth and employment. From the analysis, we find that: (1) GVC reconstructions caused by USA–China decoupling would have a greater impact on China than on the USA. If USA–China bilateral trade is replaced by the surrounding economies, China's GDP and employment would fall by 2.57% and 2.34%, respectively. (2) The effects on regional economies are synergistic, with the countries directly surrounding China and the USA being more affected than India and most European countries. (3) USA manufacturing may benefit from the manufacturing repatriation policy, but the overall impact on economic growth would be limited. (4) In all reconstruction scenarios, global GDP figures are lower than they are today, demonstrating the importance of maintaining existing GVCs.     

Dynamic Effects of Economic Integration: A Survey

This review article discusses recent models investigating the long-run effects of economic integration. Using endogenous growth approaches this literature looks at the channels through which integration policies (trade liberalization, liberalization of factor mobility, free flow of technological knowledge, etc.) might change the long-run growth rates and specialization patterns of countries involved. We distinguish between international integration, referring to the integration of a country in the world economy, and regional integration, i.e., the formation of regional integration blocs.     

东亚经济一体化可行性的分析

在全球化和区域化不断发展的国际政治经济环境下,欧盟和北美自由贸易区向东亚各国的一体化提供了示范效应,同时也提出了迫切的要求。因此,要实现东亚经济的长期发展,东亚经济的一体化已经成为关键因素。本文通过对东亚经济一体化可行性的分析,为以后的发展提出了思路,指出了在以后发展中要着重克服的问题。     

湄公河次区域整合发展的理论与实践

在经济全球化和区域一体化背景下,城市与城市之间、国家与国家之间的经济与社会联系不断增强,区域整合发展态势凸显,整合的深度与广度不断升级。本文将社会-空间统一体理论向前推进,延伸至国际区域整合问题的研究中,提出区域社会-空间整合的理论范式,赋予现存区域整合现象以新的理解,并以湄公河次区域为例进行了区域整合实例分析。     

欧盟区域政策实施效果研究

欧盟是目前各国实现区域经济一体化的典范,但其内部的发展差距也是很大的。欧盟内部发展不平衡既存在于各成员国之间,也存在于成员国内各地区之间。各地区存在着广泛的自然资源差距,不同的区位差异,不同的文化背景和种族差别,这种差别也体现在地区经济发展水平的不平衡上。经过三十多年的实践,欧盟区域政策无论在制度基础,区域划分还是政策工具等方面都是极为成熟和完善的,借鉴欧盟区域政策成熟的运行机理,对我国制定和实施区域政策,缩小地区经济差异有十分重要的意义。