Do High-technology Exports Cause More Technology Spillover in China？

The volume of China’s high-technology exports has grown sharply since the implementation of its export promotion strategy "Revitalizing Trade through Science and Technology" in 1999.This paper investigates whether technology spillover effects are greater for hightechnology exports than for primary manufactured goods exports.We present a generalized multi-sector spillover model to identify both between spillover effects from exports towards non-exporters and within-spillover effects among export sectors.Using panel data for 31 provinces in China over the period from 1998 to 2005,we find that although high-technology export sectors have higher productivity compared with other sectors,this productivity advantage does not lead to technology spillover to both domestic sectors and other export sectors,and export technology spillover mainly derives from traditional export sectors rather than high-technology export sectors.As such findings can be largely attributed to the fact that China’s high-technology exports depend significantly on processing trade by foreign- invested firms,policy implications are discussed in relation to how to best promote the role of China’s high-technology exports during economic expansion.     

Monitoring basic characteristics of various economic-geographic regions for economic integration possibility

Motivation of virtually all regional economic integration initiatives has been prospect of enhanced economic growth. Lower transaction costs for business, lower risks associated with investment, expansion of markets, pooling of regional resources, better utilization of economies of scale in production, and more efficient allocation of resources, are part of benefits of economic integration. However, it is indisputable that in order to achieve some of these benefits, strong national economic policies will need to be made by collecting accuracy and pure information about the possible economic partner region. Therefore in this study, the basic characteristics of various economic-geographic regions such as demographic trends, economic performance, structure of trade, technology diffusion ＆ creation and energy sources are investigated for economic integration possibility of these regions.     

Regionalism and East Asian economic integration

The wave of economic globalization moves to all the countries in the world to be integrated with multilateralism and by promotion of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization （GATT/WTO）. Meanwhile, the growth of regional economic integration has been one of the major developments in international economic relations, and undoubtedly regionalism is a part of the global economic environment. The objective of the paper is to review the trends and highlight the prospects for enhancing economic integration in East Asia. This paper has argued that the emerging East Asian economies have achieved sustained economic development and poverty reduction through domestic structural, institutional and governance reforms as well as through market-driven integration with the global and regional markets. Though this process was temporarily interrupted by the Asian financial crisis in 1997-1998, the economies have pursued further liberalization and reforms, deepened economic integration through trade, FDI and finance, and regained dynamic growth. The author argues that the reasonable choice for Eastern Asian countries is to deepen their economic integration and the optimal strategy is fostering economic integration with institutional cooperation.     

Impact of Cross-Strait Trade Liberalization： A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper applies a computable general equilibrium model to investigate the potential economic effects of trade liberalization across the Taiwan Strait. Our simulation results reveal that cross-Strait trade liberalization will have significant positive impacts on external trade, domestic investment and real GDP for the economies in this area in general and in Taiwan in particular. Furthermore, the negative impact from the formation of a free trade arrangement between Taiwan and Chinese Mainland on Hong Kong seems to be rather small. These results suggest that cross-Strait trade liberalization is very likely to bring about a win-win situation for the economies in this area.     

China＇s Regional Disparity and Its Policy Responses

The fruits of China＇s rapid economic development over the 3 decades have not been distributed fairly across different regions. Using data from a sample of 815 Chinese listed firrns during 1998-2004, our error-correction investment model showes evidence of different financial constraints on firms＇ investment in different regions. We argue that China＇s regional development policies have contributed greatly to the regional inequalities. To control the rising inequality, China has shifted its focus from the coast to the interior regions. However, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the government to direct the economy, as market mechanisms now have afar greater influence on the economy than the government does. The people-centered approach of the current leadership has meant that substantial attention has been placed on regional development disparities in an attempt to build a ＂harmonious society. ＂ China needs further extensive reforms if all the measures for reducing regional disparity are to be effective.     

Vertical Spillover Effects of Multinationals on Chinese Domestic Firms via Supplier-Customer Relationships

Foreign direct investment （FDI） can benefit domestic firms in the host country. Using firm- level data for China, we find statistically positive vertical spillover effects of multinational enterprises on the performance of domestic firms through backward and forward supplier- customer relationships. The spillover effects are mainly from large multinational enterprises and are greater for state-owned firms and in poor regions. Our results are robust for both parametric regression and nonparametric matching techniques. Our findings have strong policy implications： while regulations relating to building business relationships with domestic firms when seeking foreign direct investment should be established, such policies should be aimed at private firms, big multinationals and less developed regions.     

Bank Lending and Economic Growth of Chinese Cities

Using a city-level dataset over the period 2004-2006,the present study investigates the relationship between bank lending and the economic growth of Chinese cities.Unlike past studies,we divide bank lending into loans from three types of banks:foreign banks,city banks and other banks.Our findings are threefold.First,the lending of foreign banks exhibits a strong and positive association with the economic growth of Chinese cities. Second,foreign direct investment in the sampled cities enhances the lending effects of foreign banks,but reduces the lending effects of other banks on the economy of Chinese cities.Third, the effects of city competitiveness are similar to those of foreign direct investment;that is,city competitiveness augments the lending effects of foreign banks but reduces the lending effects of other banks.     

Social-economic Development of Small West European Peripheral Countries

In the framework of different countries＇ international comparison, the objective of this paper reflects research topic of investigation--the identification of small countries, revealing features of economic development and business growth in economic history context of small economies classification. The object of investigation focuses on West European and Nordic countries＇ small economies. The hypothesis of the article is that small states under consideration are developing as the business competitive peripheries areas due to the special Scandinavian capitalist model development characterized by high level of social capital. The statistical data base includes Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development indicators, World Bank parameters and Nordic transnational corporation＇s annual reports. The paper considers the following research questions： （1） the critical overview of the mainstream academicians opinions concerning different-scaled economies, （2） classification of small states and clarification of different groups of the small-scaled countries role in the world and regional economy through historical context, （3） estimates and variants of small countries＇ social-economic development in accordance with different parameters, （4） consideration of Nordic European countries coming to the business model of the competitive peripheral social-economic development. The main summing up conclusion is that small economies of Nordic Europe are converting nowadays into the experimental laboratory of the European and world economy due to the specific model of their social-oriented economic and business growth, their geopolitical location between developed European integration complex embracing presumably small-scaled states from one side and large-scaled emerging market economy of Asian continent from the other side.     

is China＇s Economic Growth Extraordinary or Mediocre？ The Role of the Exchange Rate

Results derived from evaluations using different measures for China＇s economic growth are divergent, especially when the RMB exchange rate has experienced large depreciation. Focusing on the changes in the RMB exchange rate matching the demands of economic development, we offer some plausible explanations for the variations in the evaluation results. The significant gaps between different economic performance evaluation results before the mid-1990s, and evidence from international comparisons of factor productivity indicate that the quality of economic growth in China is different from that of other economies. Evaluation of economic development should take into account both quantitative expansion and qualitative improvement. From this perspective, evaluation results indicate qualitative improvement in the Chinese economy after the mid-1990s.     

China＇s Sustained Economic Growth： Do Direct R＆D Spillovers Matter？

Using data from 1986-2005, the present paper estimates the impact of direct knowledge spilled over from G-7 countries on China＇s economy. We use telephone line penetration rates andpersonnel flows to estimate the direct spillover effect. Our results show that direct knowledge spillovers through telecommunication networks and personnelflows are important components of international R＆D spillovers in China. These direct channels of spillover effectively accelerate China＇s economic growth. Therefore, China should invest more in human capital and in its telecommunication network to enhance the absorptive capacity of direct R＆D spillovers, and to increase communication with other nations, in particular the USA and Japan. More subsidies to domestic R＆D research and purchase of intermediate goods will help to raise China＇s R＆D intensity.     

China＇s Construction Land Expansion and Economic Growth： A Capital-output Ratio Based Analysis

Since 2003, the Chinese Government has included land policy as an important component of macroeconomic policy. The present paper analyzes the impact of the expansion of construction land on economic growth in terms of the capital-output ratio. Using provincial panel data for China from 1999to 2005, we conclude that the excess expansion of China＇s construction land led to an increase in the capital-output ratio. Therefore, expanding construction land has made little contribution to economic growth. This paper argues that contractionary land policy does not deter high economic growth, and is a necessary condition for sustainable economic growth.     

Inter-industry Technology Spillover Effects in China： Evidence from 35 Industrial Sectors

The present paper calculates 35 industrial sectors’ similarity matrices for the period of 1997-2008 using China’s input-output tables for 1997,2002 and 2007,and uses these to measure inter-industry technology spillover to analyze the spillover effects on industrial sectors’ labor productivity.The empirical analysis shows that inter-industry technology spillover has a significant positive effect on the labor productivity of each industry.The elasticity of productivity effects of inter-industry technology spillover is not only larger than that of direct R&D input,but also increases over time.We group the industries into four major categories and find that the inter-industry technology spillover effect within the categories is,on average,greater than that between the four categories,indicating that technology spillover occurs more easily between similar industries.This research shows that the interindustry technology spillover effect in China has begun to increase,and the government should take advantage of this effect.     

External Dependent Economy and Structural Real Estate Bubbles in China

This study explores the relationship between external dependent economic structure, surplus monetary liquidity and real estate bubbles in China. Employing monthly data from 28 Chinese provinces over the period 2004-2005, we test whether real estate bubbles are caused by structural surplus monetary liquidity, ccontrolling other possible factors. Our empirical findings show that the growth of private savings in the banking sector, as an index of surplus monetary liquidity, ferments real estate bubbles regardless of the different development level across the 28 provinces.     

China as a Global Manufacturing Powerhouse： Strategic Considerations and Structural Adjustment

This study examines the nature and consequences of China＇s rise to the center of world economic affairs through manufacturing-led development. Our historical analysis shows that China is still well short of the point in its developmental process where its growth might be reasonably expected to slow, or the energy, resource and carbon intensity of growth to recede. The study argues that the current trajectory of industrialization will have to be altered when China becomes more actively engaged in dealing with structural issues at home and abroad against the background of the unwinding of global imbalances. One profitable strategy that China might employ wouM be to approximate the incredibly fruitful mass-market integration efforts of the USA that eventually elevated it to its position of global primacy. The cyclical re-emergence of excess capacity in Chinese heavy industry, serious questions about the medium term ability of other major regions to accommodate further large gains in Chinese market share, and the stark conflict between the contemporary style of industrial development and the health of the biosphere indicate strongly that now is the time to catalyze the required adjustment and reform processes that will underpin sustainable long-run prosperity.     

Do China＇s Outward Direct Investors Prefer Countries with High Political Risk？ An International and Empirical Comparison

This paper focuses on a conventional debate regarding whether Chinese outward direct investors tend to invest in countries with high political risk. Using 2003 -2011 data from the World Bank, the Heritage Foundation and the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, we investigate China ＇s political risk distribution and political risk index （PRI）. Our results indicate that China ＂s political risk index was ranked 48th among 153 economies in 2011, in the lower risk level of the PRI spectrum. In an international comparison of political risk distribution, the proportion of Chinese outward direct investment （ODI） among countries with high political risk is less than the world average. The Chinese ODI political risk index has significantly improved and remains lower than the world average. To improve Chinese ODI PRI, the Chinese Government should continue to implement differentiation strategies and to offer official development assistance to improve the investment environment in developing countries and reduce political risk.     

Self-employment in Rural China:Its Development,Characteristics,and Relation to Income

Changes in the employment structure in rural China were studied with a focus on off-farm self-employment.Data from the Chinese Household Income Project surveys were used,covering the same 14 provinces from 1988 to 2018.We found that the proportion of adults in rural China with self-employment as their primary form of off-farm employment increased from only 2 percent in 1988 to 11 percent in 2013,with no further increases through 2018.In 1988 and 1995,the rate of self-employment was highest in the eastern region but this regional pattern subsequently disappeared.The probability of being self-employed in rural China was higher among married males than among unmarried persons.Having a migration experience increased the likelihood of being self-employed.Since 1995,self-employed households have had a higher average income than other categories of household.Based on estimates of income functions,we conclude that the income premium from being self-employed increased rapidly from 1988 to 1995 to become remarkably large when only a few adults were self-employed.However,as a larger fraction of the rural population entered self-employment,the payoff from being self-employed has rapidly diminished,although it was still substantial in 2018.     

Business Cycle in China since the Lehman Crisis： Interaction among Macroeconomic Policy,Economic Growth and Inflation

The major objectives of China＇s macroeconomic policy are to stabilize economic growth and inflation, which, in turn, are important factors determining key prices, such as the policy interest rate, the renminbi exchange rate and stockprices. In a framework that distinguishes different phases of the business cycle based on whether the current period＇s economic growth rate and inflation rate are above or below their ＂＇normal＂ values, this paper analyzes the interaction among macroeconomic policy, economic growth and inflation in China since the Lehman crisis, and the implications for these key prices. The path of China＇s economy indicates that stimulus measures taken by the government during the recession phase and tightening measures implemented during the overheating phase have helped minimize the fluctuation over the business cycle. Our analysis shows that Chinese authorities tend to rely more on adjusting the exchange rate than the interest rate to stabilize the economy. Comparing with conditions at the time of the post-Lehman recession, the current slowpace of economie growth in China may reflect not only weakening demand, but also a lowerpotential growth rate associated with the arrival of the Lewis turning point.     

Has China Crowded out Foreign Direct Investment from Its Developing East Asian Neighbors？

This paper applies a gravity model to investigate the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in East Asia. Economic fundamentals, such as market size, per capita income and country risk indicators, economic and cultural ties, exchange rate volatilities and information asymmetry are found to be important determinants for FDI. Globally, the inward FDI among high-income OECD economies declined significantly on average over the period of 1990-2003, whereas the inward FDI of the high-income OECD economies in emerging market economies gained substantially. In the East Asian region, the ASEAN-4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) received above-average inward FDI from the high-income OECD economies after controlling for their economic fundamentals. By contrast, China's FDI from the high-income OECD economies is below average relative to its economic fundamentals. Therefore, it is difficult to establish that China has crowded out FDI from its developing ASEAN neighbors.     

Decomposing the Effects of FDI on Guangdong＇s Economic Growth

Guangdong has been experiencing rapid economic growth, while this rapid growth was accompanied by a boom in inward foreign investment and the establishment of a direct link with the outside world. Using city-level panel data from 1996 to 2002, the four-year moving fixed effects FDI-led growth model empirically shows that Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan （HMT） investment will not continue to make up the bulk of FDI in Guangdong for long, and that its dominant influence on Guangdong＇s economic growth will be gradually replaced by other sources of investment in the near future due to various political and economical reasons.     

Regional convergence and migration： The case of Mongolia 1989-2004

This paper investigates the convergence of GDP per capita across Mongolia＇s twenty-two aimags and five regions. According to international and domestic surveys, one third of the Mongolian population is living under the poverty line. Specifically, poverty is deeper in rural areas than in urban areas. Thus, one main objective of economic growth should be reducing the cross-regional income differences and maintaining real long-run per capita income growth. However, in Mongolia there is almost no research on regional economic development and regional income disparities. It is the first time that the speed of convergence to the steady state has been estimated, using a Mongolian cross-regional data set （1989-2004）. The results show that there is convergence across all Mongolian aimags and regions. The speed of convergence towards the steady state position is 3 percent in the Solow model and 4.3 percent in the Ramsey model. That is substantially higher than other convergence studies. The study also finds that migration has played an important role in the evolution of regional disparities.