On Decreasing Marginal Impatience,Stability and Monetary Policy in a Sidrauskian Economy

This paper analyzes the long‐run dynamics with which decreasing marginal impatience (DMI) is consistent with a saddle‐path equilibrium in a Sidrauskian economy. With exogenous growth, this occurs with a strong substitutability between capital and money. Otherwise, diminishing returns to capital have to be stronger than in a nonmonetary setting if capital and money are complements. With endogenous growth, saddle‐path stability ensues when the rate of time preference—the rate at which “impatience” is increasing—exceeds the rate at which the real economy is growing along a balanced growth path. Two monetary implications also emerge. One, DMI can be consistent with both a negative and positive long‐run inflation‐growth nexus. Two, under capital‐money substitutability, the Friedman optimal rule might even fail to hold.     

Are Human and Social Capital Linked? Evidence from India

This paper develops a two‐period Overlapping Generations (OLG) model of endogenous growth in which a two‐way relationship between social capital and human capital is studied. In order to illustrate the impact of public policies, the model is calibrated using the data for a low‐income country, India and a sensitivity analysis is reported under different parameter values. Based on the numerical analysis, this paper focuses on possible trade‐offs in the allocation of government spending between two productive components, that is, social capital‐related activities and education. The results of this paper show that an increase in the share of public spending on social capital‐related activities through a cut in spending on education or vice versa entails trade‐offs. However, the trade‐off fades away and the net impact on long‐run growth turns out to be positive for different parameter values in the case where a higher share of spending on education is financed by a cut in spending on social capital‐related activities but a policy in improving social capital accumulation at the expense of education is always detrimental to long‐run growth.     

Growth gains from trade and education

A multi-sector general equilibrium model is presented where education enhances general human capital, which is essential for increasing or maintaining the mobility of workers across industries. The paper shows that international trade, combined with education, can have a positive growth effect by allowing workers to move easily to, and specialize in, the industry with the greatest productivity in each period, which enables an economy to grow in the long run at the growth rate of the industry with the most rapid technical progress. Depending on the initial ratio of general-to-specific human capital stock, multiple equilibrium growth paths can exist including a poverty trap, and trade liberalization can allow an economy in a poverty trap to transform into one with continuous education and higher output growth.     

Profitability and Investment: Evidence from India's Organized Manufacturing Sector

Using a state‐industry panel data set of 55 industries for 19 major Indian states over the period 1983–84 to 2007–08, we analyze the contemporaneous and long run impacts of the rate of profit and its components—profit share, capacity utilization rate and capacity‐capital ratio—on investment using linear dynamic panel data models. Our results show that: (a) the rate of profit has both short and long run positive impacts on investment; (b) the profit share and capacity‐capital ratio have mainly long run positive impacts, but the capacity utilization rate has a more complex pattern of impact on investment.     

Youth unemployment in the Federal Republic of Germany

Although the youth unemployment ratio in Germany may appear low compared to other countries, it is regarded a severe economic and social problem. There is no doubt that it is an especially gross form of waste of resources and “disinvestment” of human capital. In the long run no country can afford to keep a considerable part of its population unemployed if future prosperity is to be maximized.     

Foreign aid and economic growth: evidence from Cambodia

This paper attempts to examine the growth impact of foreign aid in Cambodia over the period 1980–2014, using the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. The study also incorporates investment and trade openness into the model. The empirical findings show that trade openness has positive effects on growth in both the short run and the long run; investment has positively contributed to growth in the long run while foreign aid has positive impact on growth only for the short run. On the contrary, in the long run, it has negative impact on investment and growth. This can be suggested that dependence on foreign aid for long periods of time does not positively contribute to investment and growth in Cambodia. In order to achieve sustainable growth and enhanced industrialization, policy-makers should move from aid dependence to promote investments through elevating domestic and foreign capital in the country.     

Mortality,the Trade‐off between Child Quality and Quantity,and Demo‐economic Development

An economy is investigated where parents observe wage rates, interest rates and child mortality and decide about savings and the quantity and quality of their children. Expenditure on child quality causes human capital accumulation as an external effect. If mortality is high parents prefer to have many children and spend only essential rearing effort. Without human capital accumulation the economy may stabilize in an equilibrium of economic stagnation and high population growth. If mortality is low parents prefer to have only few children and spend comparatively large fractions of income on their quality. With human capital accumulation the economy is capable of long‐run growth. The paper also shows the possibility of an endogenously explained demographic transition and a development aid program on education is discussed.     

Strategic Interactions in a Growth Model with Infrastructure Capital

A dynamic game growth model with infrastructure capital is analyzed and it is shown that the pattern of growth can be either endogenous or exogenous depending on agents’ commitment behavior. If the agents commit their future actions, there is a unique Nash equilibrium with endogenous growth. However, if they cannot commit their future actions and they condition their actions on the state variable at each time, then for any level of infrastructure capital there exist infinitely many equilibria: some of them exhibit endogenous growth and others show no growth in the long run (or even in the short run).     

On the Causal Links Between FDI and Growth in Developing Countries

We analyse the Granger causal relationships between foreign direct investment (FDI) and GDP in a sample of 31 developing countries covering 31 years. Using estimators for heterogeneous panel data we find bi‐directional causality between the FDI‐to‐GDP ratio and the level of GDP. FDI has a lasting impact on GDP, while GDP has no long‐run impact on the FDI‐to‐GDP ratio. In that sense FDI causes growth. Furthermore, in a model for GDP and FDI as a fraction of gross capital formation (GCF) we also find long‐run effects from FDI to GDP. This finding may be interpreted as evidence in favour of the hypotheses that FDI has an impact on GDP via knowledge transfers and adoption of new technology.     

内生经济增长理论与财政政策的一般性研究

内生增长理论是现代经济增长理论中的一个核心内容。从长期经济增长所依赖的路径来看,人力资本和技术进步作为经济增长的内生因素,可以弥补因其他要素收益递减而带来经济增长停滞这一局面。如果经济增长率是由内生因素决定的,那么财政政策对经济增长的影响将再次成为人们关注的焦点。在国家财政政策干预下,以内生增长为动力,逐步形成有利于经济增长的物质资本投资向人力资本和技术进步等方面投资的转换机制。     

Financial liberalization,openness and convergence

All industrialized nations relied on capital account controls for significant periods of their economic development and relaxations of capital account restrictions thought to be an integral aspect of economic development. Economists long advocated the removal of capital controls as a stabilizing factor of the development process to improve efficiency and return economies from distorted factor prices to production frontiers. Empirically, however, financial liberalizations have become associated with capital flow reversals, where initial capital inflows at the onset are subsequently offset by capital outflows resulting in higher levels of accumulated indebtedness. We investigate how capital flow reversals caused by financial liberalizations affect the speed of convergence of an economy. We show that financial liberalizations reduce short run convergence speeds, implying that open economies should experience significantly less output volatility but also longer transitions. The increased smoothness in response to initial shocks comes at a cost: as foreign borrowing rises to smooth domestic income fluctuations causing an increase in the domestic interest rate OECD data confirms our findings.     

International Tourism,Higher Education and Economic Growth: The Case of North Cyprus

This study investigates the long‐run equilibrium relationship between international tourism, higher education growth, real income growth and the direction of causality among these variables for the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which is not recognised by any country other than Turkey. Results reveal that international tourism and higher education are in a long‐run equilibrium relationship with real income growth; international tourism and higher education have an inelastic, yet positively significant impact on real income growth in the long‐run period. Finally, the results of the present study reveal that both the tourism‐led growth and the higher education‐led growth hypotheses are confirmed for North Cyprus.     

Testing the human capital development model: the case of apprenticeships in Turkey

Human capital theory was developed to study how individual agents make rational choices or how they invest in human capital to maximize their welfare. One of the leading founders of this perspective, Becker, argues that schooling, on‐the‐job training, medical care, migration and searching for information about prices and incomes are different types of human capital as all these investments improve skills, knowledge or health, thereby increasing individual welfare. He states that education and training are the most important investments in human capital. Apprenticeship training is, thus, identified and treated as a type of investment in human capital. At first glance, it seems that apprentices who are being trained are acquiring skills in a specific vocation. One would suppose that the trainees are getting knowledge and skills and that they would become masters in their profession after a long training process. However, further enquiry is needed to see if this is the case in reality. The present small‐scale, exploratory study, based on 20 interviews – 10 with apprentices and 10 with their employers – aims to investigate the apprenticeship training system in Turkey. In doing so, it seeks to test the basic tenets of human capital theory against the facts discovered. The findings, if they could be generalized, suggest that the Turkish apprenticeship system is a form of child labour rather than a training process. Contrary to apprentice training being a human capital investment, the study finds that trainees do not rationally decide to enter an apprenticeship nor are they selected by a meritocratic system. All of them come from poor peasant families or low‐wage working families where the most pressing need is for the child to earn money.     

The Complementary Nature Between Technological Progress and Capital Accumulation in India's Long‐Run Growth Transitions

This article develops a multiple‐regime, learning‐by‐doing model, in which technological progress and capital accumulation are complementary factors in long‐run growth transitions. The model accurately predicts India's long‐run growth transitions over the period 1953–2007, with the first phase (1980–2002) being ‘technology’ driven and the second phase (2003–2007) capital accumulation driven. Given the complementary nature between technological progress and capital accumulation, one of the main challenges facing Indian policy makers in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis is to maintain high saving/fixed investment rates. The analysis also provides a critique of the ‘total factor productivity view’ of India's growth performance.     

Following the money: The globalization of capital flows and private equity

Global capital flows have long been the domain of the developed nations. The emerging markets, at best, have been nominal players. Today, the tables have begun to turn. The developing nations have become bigger players as global growth increasingly shifts toward the Middle East, Asia, Central Europe, and Latin America. Accordingly, global capital flows are slowly being reconfigured; in the future, flows will increasingly take the form of north‐south movements, or flows between the developed and developing nations. They will also become south‐south in nature, as well as south‐north. Private equity, long driven by U.S. players, will become less U.S.‐centric in the future. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

国际贸易、技术创新与人力资源的再配置

技术进步是长期经济增长的源泉,而技术进步很大程度上是市场选择的结果。技术具有外溢性,在开放经济条件下,国际贸易通过开辟知识的跨国流动途径加速国际知识交流,增加本国的知识存量;另一方面通过劳动力市场和产品市场的价格信号影响人力资源在传统工业部门和技术研发部门之间的流动,并对人力资本投资发生作用。这种人力资源的专业化及投资行为最终会对长期经济增长率产生影响。     

Human capital and entrepreneurial success: A meta-analytical review

The study meta-analytically integrates results from three decades of human capital research in entrepreneurship. Based on 70 independent samples (N = 24,733), we found a significant but small relationship between human capital and success (r_c = .098). We examined theoretically derived moderators of this relationship referring to conceptualizations of human capital, to context, and to measurement of success. The relationship was higher for outcomes of human capital investments (knowledge/skills) than for human capital investments (education/experience), for human capital with high task-relatedness compared to low task-relatedness, for young businesses compared to old businesses, and for the dependent variable size compared to growth or profitability. Findings are relevant for practitioners (lenders, policy makers, educators) and for future research. Our findings show that future research should pursue moderator approaches to study the effects of human capital on success. Further, human capital is most important if it is task-related and if it consists of outcomes of human capital investments rather than human capital investments; this suggests that research should overcome a static view of human capital and should rather investigate the processes of learning, knowledge acquisition, and the transfer of knowledge to entrepreneurial tasks.     

中国宏观经济运行总量指标互动影响的实证研究

本文利用Granger因果关系检验及建立向量误差修正(VEC)模型,从数量上对中国宏观经济运行总量指标之间的相互影响及关系问题进行实证分析,结果表明物价水平、经济增长和固定资产投资之间存在显着的相互影响。从短期看,固定资产投资与经济增长均对物价水平存在着滞后、正向的推动作用。从长期看,当期投资将在未来期内转化为供给,在反方向上促使物价下滑,因而固定资产投资在长期内对物价水平存在着一个显着的反向影响力。而且广义货币供给量通过固定资产投资与经济总产出的传导作用,对物价水平发生影响。     

Fertility,intergenerational transfers and economic development

This paper develops a model of endogenous growth where agents are altruistic and value both the utilities of their parent and of their children. Individuals endogenously choose the number of their children, and arbitrate between financing education, leaving them some bequest and offering some gift to their parents. We establish the existence of three types of long run regime. Starting from a low level of human capital, an economy converges towards a stationary state associated with a constant output per worker, a high level of fertility and ascendant transfers. If the initial level of human capital is not too low, another stationary state jointly exists with a lower level of fertility and no transfer. Finally, starting from a high level of human capital, the economy experiences a steady growth of output per worker associated with a low fertility level and descendant transfers. We then assume that an economy is initially in the stationary underdevelopment regime with ascendant transfers, and we study the power of different policies to push the economy toward the growth regime. We successively consider a fertility control policy, an education subsidies policy, and the introduction of a pension system for the elderly.