The long wave in economic life

Summary In this paper a review is given of the theory of the long wave or Kondratieff cycle. Five different categories of explanations are discussed, of which the most important ones are Schumpeter's innovation theory and the alternations in the growth of fixed capital, recently stressed again by Forrester. To these elements the concept of the industry life cycle and an explanation of clusters of basic innovations are added to complete an endogenous long wave mechanism. Using Schumpeter's four phases a long wave chronology is presented. This suggests that in the mid-1970s Western economies have entered the depression phase of the long wave.[/p]This article is a rewritten version of an inaugural lecture held at the Erasmus University Rotterdam, on May 12, 1977.     

论中国经济长周期波动的特殊性

本文的分析表明，技术创新和制度创新是长波运行的主要动力。中国经济长波存在超长的上升期，这一特殊性源自我国技术创新和制度创新的不断进展。我们应继续以持续的技术创新和制度创新来推动我国经济长波的高位平稳运行。     

网络关系强度与企业创新类型——基于不确定性环境下的实证分析

文章通过157家企业实证结果显示:网络关系强度与渐进式创新正相关而与突破式创新存在相对较弱的负相关。进一步研究发现,技术不确定性能够增强网络关系强度与突破式创新的负相关关系,同时减弱了网络关系强度与渐进式创新的正相关关系;与此相反,市场不确定性能够减弱网络关系强度与突破式创新的负相关关系,同时增强了网络关系强度与渐进式创新的正相关关系。     

论政府机关的效能问题

知识经济对企业生产经营方式、企业运行形式等产生诸多影响 ,企业管理观念必须创新。竞争企业之间关系的复合化、多样化是知识经济时代对企业提出的新要求 ,以合作竞争的方式寻找提高竞争优势的战略已成为趋势 ,企业的核心技术与市场推广体系应该达到完美的结合 ,技术创新和营     

基于联合建模匹配衰减技术的莺歌海盆地多次波压制方法研究

多次波是海洋地震勘探中最突出的问题之一,多次波的存在严重影响地震波成像的真实性和可靠性。为了有效压制多次波并突出有效波,开发了联合建模匹配衰减技术。思路是：基于原始波场尽可能准确地预测各种类型多次波,通过一次性匹配减去对多次波进行最大程度衰减,同时避免了多次匹配而产生的噪声,并且在稀疏域采用多道均衡匹配滤波技术对各多次波模型和地震数据进行联合匹配衰减。结果表明该技术在莺歌海盆地高温高压区东方区和乐东区的应用取得了显著的效果,可为中深层的勘探开发提供高质量的地震资料处理结果。     

Behavioral Economics and Institutional Innovation

Behavioral economics has played a fundamental role historically in innovation in economic institutions even long before behavioral economics was recognized as a discipline. Examples from history, notably that of the invention of workers' compensation, illustrate this point. Though scholarly discussion develops over decades, actual innovation tends to occur episodically, particularly at times of economic crisis. Fortunately, some of the major professional societies, the Verein für Sozialpolitik, the American Economic Association, and their successors, have managed to keep a broad discourse going involving a variety of research methods, including some that may be described today as behavioral economics, thereby maintaining an environment friendly to institutional innovation. Further, the broad expansion of behavioral economics that is going on today can be expected to yield even more such important institutional innovations.     

战后国营企业出售与“优先承购”的困境——上海中华烟草公司承购权纠纷案探研

国营企业的出售是战后国民政府在执政危机之下作出的重要经济决策。在国营企业出售的浪潮中,由经济部主管的中华烟草公司被列入原业主优先承购之列,引起各界关注,最终引发承购权纠纷。承购权纠纷案历时将近两年,中华烟厂产业工会一方与承购方华品烟公司互相斗法,国民政府经济部、苏浙皖区敌伪产业审议会、上海市总工会、市参议会等部门和机构不同程度卷入,一度上诉至行政院,成为战后上海烟草业内一大焦点。该案牵涉多方利益,旷日持久而最终不了了之,成为战后特殊环境下各种政治与社会力量间复杂博弈的一种体现。     

Retail revolution and the village shop,c. 1660–1860

Village shops have been largely overlooked in the recent literature on British retailing in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, which has sought to redefine the parameters and timing of retail transformation. While urban shops have been explored in detail, often in ways that highlight their role in a parallel transformation in consumption patterns, little attempt has been made to look inside village shops or examine the character and practices of rural retailers. This article addresses this lacuna and offers fresh insights into the shifting position of village shops in these broader economic, business, and social changes. Taking a long view of the period c. 1660–1860, it draws on a wide range of sources to examine the stock sold and the degree of specialization exhibited by village shops, and the changing trading practices of village shopkeepers, including the provision of credit, the pricing of goods, and marketing activities. In doing so, the article highlights both long‐term continuities and important innovations of the type that also characterize urban shops, and argues that village shops, while central to rural social and economic networks, were also intimately bound into broader retail systems.     

Innovation and industrial renewal in Sweden, 1970–2007

This study explores the question of whether the Swedish innovation output of the 1970s and 1980s (and the following decades) indicates structural lock-in or renewal. It is motivated by inconsistent explanations in the current literature about the relation between the economic slowdown and subsequent industrial renewal, as well as a lack of research focusing, in this context, on the primary driver of economic growth and structural change: innovation. By observing the number and type of innovations as they hit the market, the data in this paper tell a real time story about micro level innovation activity during the time that the economic crisis unfolds. The analysis considers Swedish innovation output between 1970 and 2007, characterising the number of significant innovations, their novelty, and their origin (including size of firm and industry sector). Three central findings emerge, defined by both the time period and the character of innovations. First, the magnitude of innovation activity peaks in the late 1970s to early 1980s. Second, starting in the late 1970s, small firms begin to outperform large firms in terms of both innovation quantity and quality (i.e. world market novelties). Third, the 1980s saw a distinct shift in the industrial origin of innovations, with software and telecom becoming the leaders in innovation output. The findings suggest that the observed industrial renewal is more nuanced than what has emerged from previous research.     

The relevance of Chinese developmental experience to developing countries

The Chinese experience and success in economic development during the past 30 years are seen as a model by many underdeveloped countries. Since 1952 China has followed 2 different strategies: 1) the radical approach, emphasizing self-reliance, autarchy, and very limited foreign trade and bureaucracy, and, 2) the pragmatic approach, giving priority to heavy industry, sophisticated technology, and centralized control. Since Chinese politics became deeply intermingled with these 2 lines of thought, there is a certain degree of uncertainty about the final direction that will emerge with a degree of continuity. Obviously, evaluating China's developmental experiences for other countries' purposes is not the same as evaluating them for China's purposes. However, in its totality China has been able to demonstrate the validity of certain goals; the transplanting of Chinese strategies in foreign countries, or the mechnical imitation of Chinese innovations would not work every time; but the adoption of certain innovations, if the proper environment is available, would have a positive impact on developing societies.     

长波框架下美国经济走势分析

制度创新和技术创新是长波运行的主要动力。美国第五轮经济长波在2007年开始进入下降阶段,本轮美国经济长波下降期将会呈现出波动幅度小、下降持续期短的特点。我国应当借鉴并汲取美国的经验教训,继续以持续的制度创新和技术创新来推动我国经济长波的高位平稳运行。     

发展循环经济必须坚持七个“创新”

循环经济是一种新的经济发展模式,它的推进将是一个漫长的历史过程。在现阶段,必须坚持七个创新,即区域发展要创新境界、产业结构要创新格局、城乡建设要创新蓝图、优先领域要创新构想、技术推进要创新思路、经济理论要创新界面、和谐社会要创新开端。     

江苏自主创新能力与经济增长关系的实证研究

在分析江苏自主创新现状的基础上,运用协整检验、误差修正模型和Granger因果检验等计量方法,对江苏自主创新能力与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:二者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,自主创新能力是江苏经济增长的Granger原因。江苏应采取相关对策,促进自主创新能力的提升。     

Does rising consumer debt signal future recessions?: Testing the causal relationship between consumer debt and the economy

This paper examines the relationship between measures of the consumer debt burden and various economic indicators. The consumer loan delinquency rate is useful in predicting consumer spending on durable goods and retail sales, while various economic indicators are useful in predicting the ratio of consumer installment credit to disposable income. The results provide no evidence for the hypothesis that a rising consumer debt burden signals any slowdown in the growth of consumer spending and the economy. Instead, the results indicate that rising consumer indebtedness is a normal occurrence in an economic expansion. It remains to be seen whether innovations in credit card usage, along with the growing use of substitutes for traditional consumer loans, will have an impact on the causal relationship between consumer debt and the economy.     

Long‐term trends in economic inequality: the case of the Florentine state,c. 1300–1800

This article provides an overview of economic inequality, particularly of wealth, in the Florentine state (Tuscany) from the early fourteenth to the late eighteenth century. Regional studies of this kind are rare, and this is only the second‐ever attempt at covering such a long period. Consistent with recent research conducted on other European areas, during the early modern period we find clear indications of a tendency for economic inequality to grow continually, a finding that for Tuscany cannot be explained as the consequence of economic growth. Furthermore, the exceptionally old sources we use allow us to demonstrate that a phase of declining inequality, lasting about one century, was triggered by the Black Death from 1348 to 1349. This finding challenges earlier scholarship and significantly alters our understanding of the economic consequences of the Black Death.     

Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of International Trade: A Vector Error-Correction Study

This study examines various claims that in the U.S., international trade has contributed to a loss of manufacturing base, an increased gap between unskilled and skilled wages, lower employment, and a loss of productivity. Cointegration tests indicate that in the long run and at the macro level, the ratio of trade to output and FDI to output are correlated with the manufacturing share of output, the ratio of unskilled to skilled wages, labor productivity, and the employment rate. However, Granger causality tests reveal that, with one exception, causation does not run from trade to the domestic variables, the only exception being that FDI Granger causes productivity. When the focus is shifted to the manufacturing sector, the results support the proposition that openness to trade has had adverse effects on this sector.A slightly different version of this paper was presented at the Fifty-sixth International Atlantic Economic Conference, October 16–19, 2003 in Quebec City, Canada. The research reported in this paper is partially funded by a grant from the Institute for Global Economic Affairs at Marquette University.     

收入分配理论创新:缘由·方法·突破点

党的十九届四中全会审议通过的《决定》提出了"三位一体"的中国特色社会主义基本经济制度新论断,"按劳分配为主体、多种分配方式并存"的分配制度成为基本经济制度的重要组成部分。坚持和完善"按劳分配为主体、多种分配方式并存"的分配制度这个政策命题映射到经济生活实践中就转化为"分配制度如何、何以能促进逐步实现共同富裕"这个实践性命题。实践结果与政策主张之间的巨大落差使我们不得不聚焦分配理论创新这一基础性问题。贫富分化抑或两极分化的历史性、普遍性、必然性以及中国贫富差距持续拉大是分配理论创新的实践需要,从抽象到具体是收入分配理论创新的方法论,科学的逻辑起点(元范畴)是收入分配理论创新的突破口,构建与中国特色社会主义市场经济具有内在一致性的分配理论体系和制度体系是分配理论创新的终极目标。     

Multi-agent modeling of economic innovation dynamics and its implications for analyzing emission impacts

In this elaboration we focus on the role of multi-agent systems as a tool for modeling economic dynamics. Hence, at the beginning the specific features of this tool are considered. Taking the example of explaining the relationship between innovations and economic growth it will be shown after that how the tool of multi-agent modeling can be used for the following purposes: (1) for explaining the occurrence of innovations, (2) for specifying the effects these innovations have on economic growth, (3) for linking emission impacts to this growth and finally (4) for exemplarily assessing political options to reduce these impacts.     

The causes of the recent financial crisis and the role of central banks in avoiding the next one

The recent financial crisis revealed that in a world of large asymmetries of information, of complex financial innovations and incomplete regulatory frameworks “self regulation” obviously does not work. But we have also seen that the governmental stabilisation policies have not worked well either. This paper argues that there have been, at least, two main contributors to the recent financial crisis. The one is supervision and regulation policy, the other is monetary policy. Easy monetary policy designed to ward off perceived risks of deflation in 2002–04 contributed to the boom in the housing market in 2004 and 2005 by keeping interest rates too low for too long. Particularly the US-Fed has played a crucial role by fuelling the asset-price, boom-bust cycle that led to the sub-prime crisis and the following global financial crisis. Moreover, this paper analyses what central banks can do to help avoid a next financial crisis. In particular, the role and limits of supplementary macro-prudential instruments are discussed.     

Dutch Economic Growth in Comparative-Historical Perspective, 1500–2000

Our knowledge of nineteenth century Dutch economic performance has been greatly improved by recent research. However, the interpretation of long-run Dutch economic development requires a reexamination of the concepts and generalizations used by economists, which derive mostly from the study of other nations, especially Britain. This article proposes both a reassessment of Dutch economic performance in the very long run, and a reconsideration of the concept of modern economic growth.