生产性服务业开放、行业异质性与制造业服务化

生产性服务业开放带来的信息、技术、资金等服务要素流动对制造业和服务业全球价值链的深度融合至关重要。本文基于边境内限制措施OECD STRI,构建服务开放渗透率衡量服务业开放水平。选取2000—2014年37个国家的制造行业的数据进行实证分析,探究生产性服务业开放对制造业服务化水平提升及其结构的影响,并依次分析批发零售、运输仓储、信息通讯、金融保险和专业科技等生产性服务业开放对制造业服务化的差异化影响。结果显示,生产性服务业开放对制造业服务化有显著的提升效应;区分服务来源后发现,生产性服务业开放显著增加了国外服务投入;就不同生产性服务业开放的影响效应而言,五类生产性服务业开放都显著促进了制造业服务化水平提升,批发零售开放带来的提升作用更为显著。影响机制检验表明,生产性服务业开放能够通过溢出效应和成本效应提升制造业服务化水平。本文的结论对中国服务业开放及制造业产业结构转型升级具有一定的政策启示。     

制造业服务化的就业效应：空间关联、影响机制与异质性

本文基于省级层面投入产出表测算得到的制造业服务化数据,与中国工业企业数据库匹配合并,得到2000—2013年省份-行业层面面板数据,采用动态空间杜宾模型实证探讨制造业服务化对中国制造业行业就业规模的影响效应。研究发现：制造业服务化会显著提升本区域的制造业就业规模,但对于空间关联区域的劳动力市场将产生“虹吸效应”,即降低空间关联区域的就业规模。机制分析发现,制造业服务化主要通过产品创新和市场规模两条渠道来影响制造业就业。异质性分析发现,对于东部地区以及非劳动密集型行业而言,制造业服务化对就业规模的扩大作用与负向空间溢出效应并存;对于中部地区以及劳动密集型行业而言,制造业服务化只存在负向的空间溢出效应;而对于西部地区来说,制造业服务化带来的就业效应尚未显现。拓展性分析发现,服务业集聚水平的提升以及服务业的不断开放,均能显著增强制造业服务化对本区域就业带来的提升效应,同时弱化对空间关联区域劳动力市场的虹吸效应。     

工业机器人应用对制造业就业的影响效应研究

研究目标:从不同维度测度工业机器人应用对制造业就业的影响效应。研究方法:在静态理论模型与动态面板数据相结合的分析框架下,探讨了工业机器人应用对制造业就业影响的短期效应、中长期效应和结构性差异。研究发现:从短期来看,工业机器人应用对制造业就业数量和工资水平均存在负向冲击,工业机器人渗透度每增加1个单位,就业人员总量减少0.391%,劳动者工资降低0.163%;现阶段机器人应用对就业的影响更多表现为替代效应,且对其上下游产业存在负向的溢出效应。从中长期来看,机器人应用对制造业就业数量会产生正向影响,而对其平均工资水平仍然会造成负面冲击,长期的就业影响更多地表现为创造效应。异质性分析发现,经济越发达、机器人渗透度越高、技术水平越高的地区其就业替代效应越显著。研究创新:丰富了人工智能对劳动力市场影响的经验研究。研究价值:科学评判“机器换人”,促进劳动力资源优化配置。     

高新区建设与制造业技术创新——基于区域异质性视角的实证检验

本文考察国家级高新区建设对制造业技术创新的影响效应的区域异质性，进而判断高新区是否异化以及在多大范围内异化为工业园区。研究结果表明：从全局效应而言，高新区的设立推动了制造业的技术创新水平，即高新区没有异化为工业园区。高新区对制造业技术创新的影响存在着区域异质性，设立高新区的政策对东部地区制造业技术创新水平的促进作用较为显著，该政策仅推动中部地区制造业技术创新的质量，但是对于西部地区和东北部地区而言，该政策并没有推动区域内的制造业技术创新，即西部地区以及东北地区的高新区异化为了工业园区。与中小型城市相比，高新区对中国大型城市的制造业技术创新水平的作用较为显著。虽然总体而言高新区促进了制造业技术创新的水平，但是该政策仅促进了低技术密集度制造业的技术创新。基于调节效应的机制检验，本文认为高新区通过集聚人力资本以及集聚生产性服务业等渠道推动制造业技术创新的数量。     

生产性服务进口对我国制造业技术进步的实证分析

本文构建了生产性服务进口的多边模型,分析了生产性服务进口对一国制造业技术进步提升的作用。模型结论显示,只有当母国制造业生产率达到一定的阀值之后,生产性服务业进口才能促进制造业的技术进步。随后,本文利用动态面板GMM模型实证研究了生产性服务进口对我国制造业的影响。研究发现,生产性服务进口可以显著促进我国制造业的技术进步。细分行业研究表明：金融服务进口贸易、研发服务进口贸易和商业服务进口贸易都可以促进制造业的生产率的提升。     

美国生产者服务业的变迁及启示——基于1997、2002、2007年投入产出表的实证研究

20世纪90年代起,美国以生产者服务业的快速发展掀起了新经济的浪潮。进入服务经济的美国,生产者服务业对国家经济的发展起到了巨大的推动作用。本文运用投入产出法分析美国1997年、2002年、2007年的生产者服务业发展现状,并与同期的制造业、消费者服务业和政府服务业的相互作用进行分析,从而揭示出美国生产者服务业在产业比重不断增加的同时,表现出与制造业分离的现状,对实际制造业投入率的趋小使现有的生产者服务业不再对美国制造业的进步起到如初的作用。这一现状的分析为我国正在兴起并将大力发展的生产者服务业起到了重要的启示作用。     

研究与试验发展业的宏观经济效应

本文使用投入产出模型研究了中国研究与试验发展业的宏观经济效应。研发业的就业效应在服务业中居于中等位置,其劳动报酬系数存在下降态势,对就业的带动能力在减弱。研发业投资回报率较低,产业没有形成内生发展能力,但是营业盈余系数有上升趋势。研发业最终消费系数在服务业中位于较前位置,是促进消费的重要服务业,但对其消费主要体现为政府消费,居民消费很少,其最终消费系数有下降趋势。研发业出口效应较弱,其产出对出口影响较小,但是其对出口影响增强的势头已经形成。研发业进口系数在服务业中居于首位,其对进口依赖较强,对进口依赖较强的态势已经形成,并将在较长时间内保持这种趋势。研发业的出口劳动直接消耗系数和就业乘数都较大。     

工业智能化对劳动力就业的影响——以甘肃省为例

就业是民生之本，欠发达地区如何利用工业发展解决就业问题是一个值得探讨的问题。因此文章聚焦西北地区的甘肃省，研究工业智能化对劳动力就业的影响，结论是：第一，工业智能化发展对甘肃省劳动力就业总量具有正向影响，根据机制分析可以知道，甘肃省工业智能化的就业创造效应比替代效应强；第二，工业智能化对甘肃省工业的劳动力就业具有显著的正向影响，甘肃省工业的就业创造效应较强，最终导致了劳动力就业总量的增加；第三，工业智能化对农业和服务业的劳动力就业影响不显著，可见工业智能化的应用范围还不够广泛，渗透性不强。根据结论提出建议：充分发挥甘肃省工业智能化的就业创造效应，增加总的就业水平，特别是对甘肃省发展较好的装备制造业进行智能化改造，促进劳动力就业；注重人力资本投资，加大对智能化人才的人力资本投资；增强工业智能化的渗透力，特别是向农业和服务业渗透，构建工业互联网平台，提高生产效率的同时增强与农业、服务业的关联度；政府给予资金支持进行工业智能化改造，提高智能化发展速度。     

生产者服务业FDI促进我国资本积累的理论与实证分析

院文章分析了生产者服务业FDI 促进资本积累的机制,并用理论模型加以论证.在理论分析的基础上,利用2005年~2011 年间省级面板数据实证检验了我国生产者服务业FDI 对我国国内投资的影响,发现前期生产者服务业FDI 在全国范围及东部地区对国内投资产生了促进作用,而对中西部地区的投资则产生了挤出效应.因此,我国应进一步加大生产者服务业FDI 的引资力度,进一步加强生产者服务业与制造业的产业关联度.     

国际服务外包对中国制造业生产率影响的实证研究——基于东道国的视角

本文基于东道国视角,研究了中国制造业承接国际服务外包的生产率效应.在分析跨国公司离岸外包影响东道国制造业生产率这一微观机理的基础上,本文构建了服务外包承接率指标,利用2006～2010年制造业行业面板数据,实证检验了中国承接国际外包服务对生产率的效应.Robust OLS和工具变量法的研究结果显示,中国承接国际外包服务对制造业效率具有正向影响,其中金融业和计算机信息技术服务业对制造业生产率的影响较大,运输业和其他商业服务业的制造业生产率效应较小,但均在统计上显著.     

The effects of wage compression on unemployment and on the intersectoral distribution of employment: a dynamic model

A two-sector economy is modeled in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. If the steady state emerging in the absence of a minimum wage exhibits unemployment, the imposition of a binding wage floor lowers employment in the service sector without affecting employment in manufacturing. The wage differential between the two sectors shrinks and the quality of the service improves, but unemployment increases. In contrast, if this steady state exhibits full employment, a binding (but relatively low) minimum wage may bring about a more egalitarian income distribution and upgrade the quality of jobs in the service sector, without creating unemployment.     

Industry Dynamics and Competition from Low‐Wage Countries: Evidence on Italy

This article analyses the effect of competition from low‐wage countries on domestic activity, using data on 230 Italian manufacturing sectors between 1995 and 2007. It finds that low‐wage import penetration is negatively related to employment and other measures of activity. The effect is significantly smaller in more skill, capital and R&D‐intensive sectors and in more vertically differentiated sectors. There is also evidence of significant effects of low‐wage competition through inter‐industry linkages: employment is negatively related to low‐wage import penetration in downstream sectors but positively related to low‐wage import penetration in upstream sectors.     

贸易自由化与中国企业进口中间品质量升级

进口高质量中间品是发展中国家实现技术追赶的重要途径;贸易自由化会降低进口高质量中间产品的贸易成本和相对价格,促进企业进口中间品质量升级。基于此,本文利用细分关税数据、海关数据和工业企业数据,将加工贸易作为控制组、一般贸易作为处理组,采用倍差法经验分析贸易自由化对中国企业进口中间品质量的影响。结论发现：伴随关税下降,中国企业进口中间品质量整体增长,且一般贸易组增长速度远快于加工贸易组。同加工贸易相比,关税下降1%一般贸易进口中间品质量增长高出0.06%~3.74%。这一作用在持续进口企业中,在基础设施完善、市场化水平高、经济集聚程度高的地区更明显。上述结论通过了同趋势假设、内生性等一系列稳健性检验。     

The effects of dollar appreciation on sectoral labor market adjustments: Theory and evidence

We examine the extent to which exchange rate fluctuations affect sectoral employment and wages in the United States. We introduce a theoretical rational expectation model that decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. The model demonstrates the effects of demand and supply channels on the response of the nominal wage and labor employment to changes in the exchange rate. The evidence indicates that the deflationary effect dominates on industrial nominal wage in manufacturing and transportation industries in the face of dollar appreciation. More importantly, there is evidence of a decrease in employment growth in several industries in response to dollar appreciation, which is statistically significant in construction and at the aggregate level. This evidence is consistent with a decrease in labor demand given the loss of competitiveness of U.S. products following dollar appreciation. There are negative effects of dollar appreciation on labor market conditions in the United States. Nonetheless, dollar appreciation is consistent with an increase in employment growth in the mining sector where the share of imports is the largest among U.S. industries.     

The China effect: Evidence from data at firm level in Thailand

This study investigates how competition with Chinese imports affects firms in Thailand. Using World Bank data on Thailand and United Nations trade data from 2003 to 2006, the empirical results show that there is no significant impact of Chinese import competition on employment, wages, or labor income share. However, further checks show that for firms with lower productivity, the impact on employment and labor income share is more likely to be negative. The impact of Chinese import competition on profit margins is significantly positive. Considering the impact on labor income share and profit margins, we conclude that because of Chinese import competition, income distribution possibly goes in disfavor of labor. Our study shows that the impact of Chinese import competition on the skilled labor ratio is positive and significant. This result suggests that Thai firms are on the path to skill upgrading as a result of Chinese import competition, which is helpful for Thailand’s long-run economic growth. As firms with low productivity are more likely to be negatively affected by Chinese import competition, improving productivity is still an efficient way to counter such competition.     

人民币升值对中国制造业影响的动态CGE研究

本文设计四种不同的汇率升值情景,利用一个中国经济的动态CGE模型—MCHUGE模拟分析了人民币升值对我国制造业的影响。研究结果表明:在人民币汇率升值的过程中,各行业进出口量的增长具有缩小效应,且人民币汇率升值依然会使制造业各行业产值有所上升;在相同的进口替代弹性下,出口商品数量的减少与国内商品转换弹性正相关;当人民币汇率升值,食品、纺织、化工、金属、机械行业的国内商品价格增幅随进口替代弹性的增大而降低。     

Does economic globalization affect the level and volatility of labor demand by skill? New insights from the Tunisian manufacturing industries

The central aim of this paper is to assess the effects of economic globalization on the level and volatility of labor demand for different skill groups in Tunisia. Using a panel dataset covering six manufacturing industries between 1983 and 2009, three main findings are reported. First, exports and imports exert a positive impact only on the semi-skilled and skilled labor demand while foreign direct investment flows increase the demand for semi-skilled and unskilled workers. Second, the regional analysis suggests that exports to the European Union boost the demand for the semi-skilled and skilled labor. Imports from the rest of the world exert similar effects on the demand for these two categories of workers. It emerges also that imports from the European Union lead to a higher demand for skilled labor, which gives support to the validity of the skill-enhancing trade hypothesis in Tunisian industries. Finally, our findings suggest that both exports and imports rise the employment volatility associated with skilled workers. On the other hand, there is a weak evidence of increased employment volatility as a result of foreign direct investment flows.     

Spatio-temporal determinants of the structural and productive transformation of regions in Central and East European countries

This paper investigates the determinants of the structural (between-sectoral) and productive (within-sectoral) transformation of 56 NUTS2 regions in Central and East European (CEE) countries over the 2008–2014 period. Over the analysed period, a transformation of the analysed regions has taken place towards the tertiary sector and high value-added activities. The results from a spatial panel Durbin analysis reveal the existence of product-space linkages and point to a productive transformation towards high technology-intensive activities as an important driver of industrial development. Equal access to digital infrastructure in urban and rural areas and transfer of skills, knowledge and resources through the inflow of foreign investment and imports of production inputs increase the contribution of manufacturing to regional employment. The effect of profit tax reductions on the share of manufacturing employment is about five times larger than the effect of government subsidies to production.     

Briefing Paper Import Penetration in the United Kingdom

There is widespread concern about the growth of imports in the United Kingdom. British industry is said to be ‘bleeding to death’ as a result of foreign competition and calls are heard for protective measures such as import controls to save the economy. There are three elements in the case for protection. The first is that trends in Britain's foreign trade in manufactured goods have been extremely adverse and that there are no good grounds for believing that they will change spontaneously. The second is that the growth of the economy is constrained by the balance of payments and that consequently a serious and growing depression will develop throughout the 1980s which could reach catastrophic proportions towards the end of the decade when North Sea oil production declines. The third is that import controls are an effective way of coping with the problem. It is recognised that the second two elements are controversial. As it happens we disagree with both of them. However, it is generally assumed that the first element - the view that increasing import penetration will destroy British industry - is common ground and that no-one disagrees with it. Our aim in this Briefing Paper is to challenge this view. There is no doubt that import penetration (which we measure as the share of imports in GDP) has growth rapidly, especially over the past two decades. In 1960 imports amounted to 25 per cent of GDP. By 1970 this proportion had risen to 28 per cent and in 1979 it had risen to 35 per cent. However, we shall argue that the economic processes that have been responsible for this development have on the whole been poorly understood. We reject the popular view that Britain is structurally unable to compete in world markets. Instead we propose an alternative interpretation of import penetration which explains UK trade performance in terms of the broader pattern of the world trade order. In the light of this theory we argue that import penetration in the UK is not an inexorable trend reflecting the relative weakness of the UK in international trade. On the contrary, UK import penetration has been adjusting to a new world trading environment and now that this process of adjustment is nearing completion the rate of increase of import penetration seems likely to abate. Moreover, the British people have benefited from this greater degree of free trade and any protective measures designed to inhibit the economic forces that we describe below would damage the economic welfare of the British public as a whole.     

基于产业互动视角的生产者服务业发展研究

随着产业结构由"工业型经济"向"服务型经济"转变,生产者服务业对制造业和国民经济增长的促进作用愈发明显.为此,基于产业互动视角下研究生产者服务业具有较强的现实意义与理论价值.研究表明,发展生产者服务业有利于地区产业结构优化,推动产业竞争力提升和加快地区经济发展;生产者服务业与制造业之间相互影响、相互依存,呈现唇齿相依的双向互动关系;生产者服务业集聚化和制造业服务外包能够更好地带动各产业的发展,促进地区经济快速增长.