Barriers and levers to future exploration in practice experiences in policy-making

In this paper the first findings of a retrospective scan of the use of future exploration methods in strategic policy-making processes in the public domain in the Netherlands and Belgium will be addressed. The barriers and leverage points as experienced by the policy-makers involved will be assessed from their perspective as end-users who have applied foresight methods in their policy-making activities. By means of four case studies, the success factors and barriers that policy-makers encounter as they apply future exploration methods will be elaborated on. Attention will be paid to the different motives and intentions employed when opting for future exploration methods. The case studies are based on policy document analyses and in-depth interviews with users in the policy domain, all conducted in view of building empirical evidence.     

“Foresight process impacts: Beyond any official targets,foresight is bound to serve democracy”

Foresight is usually criticised for having a limited direct impact on policy-making. Although contexts play a significant role, this may be true to a certain extent. It is also true, however, that the value of foresight has been under-explored. The purpose of the paper is to show the value of foresight in contributing to the development of more participatory societies irrespective of the specific ‘official’ objectives it is designed to serve. The methodology included the creation of a specific impact assessment framework and the assessment of certain foresight exercises (FNR Foresight and eFORESEE Malta) in terms of contribution to more participatory societies through case studies. The assessment showed that although contributing to more participatory societies was not among the main aims of the particular exercises, they managed to achieve certain impacts facilitating increased public participation or directly improving democratic processes in policy-making. Foresight is ‘by default’ devised to promote democratic processes through inclusiveness, openness, transparency, public engagement, and multi-stakeholder approaches.     

Learning ahead of time: how evaluation of foresight may add to increased trust,organizational learning and future oriented policy and strategy

Evaluation of futures research (foresight) consists of three elements: quality, success, and impact of a study. Futures research ought to be methodologically and professionally sound, should to a certain extent be accurate, and should have a degree of impact on strategic decision making and policy-making. However, in the case of futures studies, the one does not automatically lead to the other. Quality of method does not ensure success, just as quality and success do not guarantee impact. This article explores the new paths for understanding evaluating of futures studies that are provided by the various articles in this special issue and sets out an agenda for next steps with regard to evaluation of futures research. The more structural and systematic evaluation can result in an increased level of trust in futures research, which may in turn lead to more future oriented strategy, policy and decision making. Therefore, evaluation should be seen as more than a burden of accountability – albeit important as accountability is – but as an investment in the credibility and impact of the profession. It may set in motion a cycle of mutual learning that will not only improve the capacity of futures-researchers but will also enhance the capacity and likeliness of decision-makers to apply insight from futures research.     

Continuity,contingency and context: Bringing the historian's cognitive toolkit into university futures and public policy development

This paper explores the affinities between the cognitive approaches of historical study and those of strategic foresight, specifically, scenario planning, drawing out their capacity to problematise perceived certainties and challenge deterministic beliefs. It suggests that “thinking with history” has the potential to enhance strategic understanding and decision-making. Two high-level decision-making contexts – university executives and Government Departments – are then discussed with regards to the barriers to such strategic thinking. The paper draws on a wider research project exploring the role for historical thinking in public policy development.     

Foresight tackling societal challenges: Impacts and implications on policy-making

Foresight activities are often conducted to anticipate major societal future challenges and provide support to current decision-making. Whereas the paper reports some findings on the future of challenges especially related to sustainability, security and information society, it mainly provides evidence on how foresight impacts on policy-making and societal developments. The paper elaborates a framework with key design dimensions related to foresight process and outcomes in order to characterise different kinds of foresight projects. The framework is applied for the empirically based ex post analysis of selected foresight projects around the world in order to clarify (i) different roles for foresight in the innovation system and society and (ii) its respective impacts and implications on policy.     

The co-creation of regional futures: Facilitating action research in regional foresight

This article presents the interconnected phases of a regional-foresight process in an AR perspective within the context of a complex regional dynamic of actors with distinct local and regional political presences. The analysis is based on a Norwegian case of AR on regional foresight. The article reflects upon and develops the concept of action research (AR) as it relates to regional-foresight practices in connection with regional planning strategies (policies), according to Norway's new Planning and Building Act (PBA, 2008). Both AR and regional foresight are broad terms within a number of domains, and several contributions have sought to show how these are interlinked Ramos (2006). The focus is on how AR and action researchers both contribute to the co-creation of regional and sub-regional formulation of planning by regional-foresight processes, which are driven by decision-making regional bodies. This article contributes to the understanding of how an AR strategy of ‘strategic facilitation’ may improve the overall foresight capacity of all regional actors, both in concert and as single stakeholders. Also it furthers the understanding of how an AR approach may assist in transforming the foresight practices and the strategic decision-making into a more transparent process.     

Foresight and long-term policy-making: An analysis of anticipatory boundary work in policy organizations in The Netherlands

Public policy is founded on analysis and knowledge. However, knowledge – and especially knowledge about the future – is not a self-evident element of public policy-making. This paper conceptualizes the problematic relationship between anticipatory policy-making and anticipatory knowledge. Our study identifies possible key-variables in the linkage between foresight and policy, such as positioning, timing interfaces, professional background, instrument usage, procedures and leadership. We describe the organization and flow of policy and futures knowledge. Furthermore, we generalize these findings toward a theory concluding how ‘goodness of fit’ between knowledge about the future and policy can be achieved, so that the likelihood of informed future-oriented policies might increase.     

A look at the public policy conflict regarding the discovery of accountants' tax accrual workpapers

This article focuses on the conflict in public policy between the need to provide the investing public with accurate information with regard to corporate financial statements and the need to provide the IRS with the necessary tools in order to assure corporate compliance with the tax laws of the country. The conflict arises because of the contention of the IRS that it is entitled to have access to an independent auditor's tax accrual workpapers on the one hand, and the contention by CPAs that such access will prevent adequate disclosure to the independent auditor. The article examines the policy questions on both sides of the issue and concludes that regardless of any decision by the Supreme Court in a pendingcase, Congress should pass legislation to resolve the conflict and clearly identify the scope of any previlage accorded with regard to tax accrual workpapers.     

Organizing strategic foresight: A contextual practice of ‘way finding’

Strategic foresight as a derived outcome of corporate foresight exercises has led to the dominant discourse on strategic foresight as an episodic intervention encompassing a proliferation of organizational foresight methodologies. We argue that such an approach is flawed, consigning strategic foresight to a narrow function in a planning perspective. To move the field into more fertile pastures for research, we draw on the practice theoretical lens to provide an alternative viewpoint on strategic foresight as a bundle of everyday organizing practices. In keeping with the practice approach to strategic foresight, we delineate strategic foresight as a continuous and contextual practice of ‘wayfinding’, that manifest in everyday situated organizing. We offer an integrating framework that contributes to the ongoing discussions about alternative approaches to theorizing strategic foresight.     

Strategic Complementarity,Stabilization Policy,and the Optimal Degree of Publicity

This paper examines the welfare implications of public information dissemination within a model in which information is heterogeneous across agents and where a strategic complementarity is present. The focus of the analysis is on how the presence of stabilization policy affects the case for transparency. In considering this issue, it extends James and Lawler's (2011) contribution by incorporating an alternative payoff function and by employing a different representation of public disclosure. The study's key finding is that the conclusions drawn in its precursor are robust to these modifications; specifically, in the presence of optimally designed policy intervention zero transparency maximizes welfare.     

Causes and consequences of the lack of strategic foresight in the decisions of multinational enterprises to enter China

Strategic foresight, in the sense of ‘understanding the future’ [R.A. Slaughter. Futures studies as an intellectual and applied discipline. American Behavioral Scientist 42(3) (1998) 372-385; A.N. Whitehead. Modes of Thought. Free Press, New York, 1966], can play a significant role in the long term success, or failure, of business corporations. However, in understanding the development and management of strategic foresight within business enterprises, instances where lack of foresight was exhibited, can be equally instructive, especially when these business organizations are some of the world’s largest multinational corporations and they are faced with a situation they had met before: new market entry.By drawing on 42 in depth interviews, conducted by one of the authors with executives from Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) currently operating in China, this paper identifies the causes and consequences in the lack of foresight exhibited by many MNEs in their China-market entry strategies. In this way the foresight failure is distilled into two factors: Failure of understanding, and Failure of anticipation.     

The reflective futures practitioner: Balancing salience,credibility and legitimacy in generating foresight knowledge with stakeholders

This paper explores how foresight researchers involved in environmental, nature and planning issues attempt to balance salience, credibility and legitimacy while generating knowledge in interaction with policy-makers and other social actors. Engaging stakeholders in foresight processes can increase the robustness of foresight knowledge, broaden the spectrum of issues addressed, and create ‘ownership’ of the process. While in foresight practices stakeholder participation becomes more and more popular to resort to as enabling factor for generating salient, legitimate and credible foresight knowledge, participation can also compromise these qualities. We analysed two foresight projects conducted at the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, one that developed future visions for Dutch nature policy and another that focused on future pathways for Dutch urban sustainable development policy. We illustrate that the dynamics of the research setting – changes in the socio-political context and the internal dynamics of the participatory efforts – complicated the balancing process. We conclude that one of the main challenges for futures practitioners is, therefore, to work within the dynamics of the research setting, and to position themselves strategically in this setting; by acting as ‘reflective futures practitioners’.     

New development: Breaking out or hanging on? Internal audit in government

Public audit is in transition. On the one hand, professional organizations claim it is time ‘to break out’ and develop new roles for auditors that ‘add more value’. On the other hand, critics are concerned about public sector accountability deficits necessitating more control and urging auditors to hold on to their traditional role. This article discusses tensions and relevance between these positions and their implications for auditing in government. The article will help policy-makers in their strategic decision-making on the role and focus of internal audit in government.     

Strategic foresight in a high-speed environment

This paper explores how a top management team developed strategic foresight and decided to launch an Internet bank in a context of uncertainty about the future take up of e-commerce. For this purpose, a single inductive case study is used. The settings are those of the UK financial services industry, characterised by rapid change, mainly driven by the new technology. The focus of analysis is Sunshine, a stand-alone Internet bank. The study, which is part of a broader project on the management of innovation in financial services, is based on qualitative data captured from semi-structured interviews undertaken with a number of Sunshine’s directors.The case study reveals that developing strategic foresight is a learning process, which takes place within a broad vision, and enacts the future by a mechanism of probing it through cheap multiple devices. At a more general level, the data suggest that in turbulent environments the retention of the unity of the whole organisational system is a challenging task, particularly when its physical dimensions grow too quickly. In this context, the data suggest that nimbleness, visible and structured processes, extensive communication glued together by a focused and eccentric management team form an important core capability that impacts on the firm’s ability to develop strategic foresight and innovate continuously without falling apart.     

Why Does Poor Performance Get So Much Attention in Public Policy?

Abstract: This article explores why information on poor performance often gets most of the attention in public policy. In order to illustrate the discussion this paper analyses the case of educational policy for secondary schools in Norway, and in particular the policy of participating in the OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) which measures educational outcomes for 15‐year old pupils regarding reading, mathematics and science. Governments, researchers, interest groups and the media await the regular release of the PISA results every third year with great interest, and participate in the strategy of ‘naming and blaming’ based on the relative national performances. The practice of identifying poor performance and the subsequent public discourses has become an institution. Despite the negativity‐bias the strategic use of information associated with these processes may have positive impacts on decision making, policy innovation and democratic accountability.     

Fear of foresight: Knowledge and ignorance in organizational foresight

We discuss the changes occurring in the field of organizational foresight. The analysis results from viewing foresight from two different perspectives: as centered on the future or on the present; as macroscopic analysis or microscopic practice. The combination of these factors results in four different modes of organizational foresight: strategic planning, visioning, scenario thinking and planned emergence. These different perspectives are examined. We contribute to the literature by presenting foresight as a complex process, amenable to different understandings. Foresight is often portrayed as a technical and analytic process. We discuss it as a human process permeated by a dialectic between the need to know and the fear of knowing.     

The Public Clock: Temporal Ordering and Policy

This paper proposes a model for thinking about public policy that is holistic and inclusive. Using a ‘temporal lens’ it is argued that much that is taken for granted about modernity and progress is rooted in temporal structures that privilege certain social processes and interest groups. For community to be engaged in deliberative policy that is relevant to local contexts and imbued with social foresight requires current temporal practices to be challenged and renegotiated in order to allow for flexible policy processes that speak to the needs and concerns of the public sphere.     

Sovereign risk,public debt,dollarization, and the output effects of fiscal austerity

The goal of this paper is to investigate effects of fiscal policy on output as a response to an external shock at different levels and currency compositions of public debt. Central to our analysis is the mutual relationship between sovereign risk and public debt on the one hand, and the linkage between sovereign risk and private credit spreads on the other. We show that fiscal austerity is conducive to real economic activity when initial government debt is high, its foreign currency share is important, and the link between sovereign and corporate spreads is strong.     

Extending foresight: The case for and nature of Foresight 2.0

This a programmatic paper with all of the frustrations thereof [1]. We point beyond the well-tilled ground of foresight as commonly practiced (called Foresight 1.0) to an emerging understanding of the work and character of foresight (called Foresight 2.0). By definition, as of today, this new territory is not well mapped, much less carefully worked-over. The question that drives this commitment to Foresight 2.0 was the heart of the 2007 Strathclyde Organizational Foresight Conference—Learning the Future Faster: “Can foresight as commonly practiced enable us to learn the future fast enough to meet and deal with the unique strategic challenges of the 21st Century?” The view taken is that Foresight 1.0 cannot meet this challenge; that it leads to small victories and major disasters. An explanation is offered: Foresight 1.0 was developed, and is still largely practiced, with the eyes and mind of management, whereas sustained success in the unique conditions of the 21st Century requires Foresight 2.0—seeing, thinking and acting with the eyes and mind of Leadership. This distinction is explained. Evidence is offered that futures research and foresight are slowly moving towards this new practice. The hope is expressed that, if we grasp the need for it, the nature of it and have explicit mental maps of the journey to it, we who are professional foresight researchers and practitioners will move faster and more effectively to develop Foresight 2.0. Several steps towards this end are outlined.