Is there a link between BRIC foreign direct investment and SADC export performance?

The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries have agreed to strengthen their economic ties, thus paving the way for enhanced trade and investment performance. South Africa's strategic value in BRICS is that it is a gateway to the opportunity-rich Southern African Development Community (SADC). By using South Africa as a production hub for exports to the surrounding region, foreign investors would have ready access to neighbouring markets. This article addresses the question of whether, and in what ways, foreign direct investment (FDI) from the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries to the SADC influences the SADC's export performance. A series of empirical analyses revealed a positive causation between BRIC FDI and SADC exports, offering a clear incentive for the SADC to rejuvenate its trade and investment policies and structures, and strengthen its ties with BRIC countries in the interests of attracting more FDI and building a strong and sustainable export sector.     

A review of trade trends: South Africa and the Indian Ocean Rim

Since 1990, intense diplomatic efforts have taken place to secure and negotiate trade treaties with South Africa's traditional trading partners (the European Union, in particular) and those countries in close geographic proximity. This article examines South Africa's trade links with some of its ‘non‐traditional’ trading partners, in particular the countries of the Indian Ocean Rim (IOR), in an attempt to ascertain the nature of the trade and its importance vis‐a‐vis the rest of the world. An examination of trade data for the years 1992‐5 indicates that trade with the IOR consists mainly of the mutual exchange of natural resource products and that this trade is growing much faster than South Africa ‘s trade in general. Given this trade dynamism, South Africa should pay increasing attention to international relations with these countries. South African trade with the Rim was also found to differ from trade with the rest of the world in that it comprises the mutual exchange of natural resource‐based products. This research shows that our imports and exports are positively related to the gross domestic product of our trading partners, and negatively related to their population size and distance from South Africa. Also, more open economies have absorbed more exports from South Africa. There is some ambiguity as to the role that distance plays in determining the level of imports into this country. The intensity indices computed in this article have to be viewed in the light of this research.     

Regional Integration,Bilateral Diplomacy and African Trade: Evidence from the Gravity Model

The paper examines the impact of two main instruments of economic diplomacy — regional integration and commercial diplomacy on export flows among African states. We test whether there is any evidence of a trade‐off or complementary interaction between these two instruments in trade facilitation using the gravity model for 45 African states over the period 1980–2005. The results show that bilateral diplomatic exchange is a more significant determinant of bilateral exports among African states compared to regional integration. We also find that the trade–stimulating effect of diplomatic exchange is less pronounced among African countries that shared membership of the same regional bloc.     

Key issues in regional growth and integration in Southern Africa

ABSTRACT

The decade to 2015 saw rapid growth in trade between Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. Much of this growth reflected South African exports to its neighbours of diversified manufactured goods to meet growing urban consumption and to supply inputs to mining and infrastructure. While most SADC countries, aside from South Africa, grew quite rapidly over this period, their exports remained oriented to a narrow range of minerals and agricultural commodities destined to go outside the region. Drawing from a series of sectoral studies, we assess key regional issues including the investment and production decisions of firms whose operations stretch across borders, and consider the implications for a bottom-up integration agenda that could build productive capabilities across countries. Our evaluation highlights the importance of the spread of supermarkets, the need to address transport and logistics, and value chains whose competitive advantages are inherently regional, as in the cases of poultry and mining.     

US and China aid to Africa: Impact on the donor-recipient trade relations

This paper investigates the impact of the US and China's foreign aids to Africa on trade flows between donor and recipient countries. Evidence from the gravity model estimates reveals that the two donors' exports are strengthened by their aids to African partners. Interestingly, China's aid shows a positive effect on its total volume of trade and imports from Africa, while the aid from the US exhibits little impact on the US-Africa total trade and its imports from Africa. A possible explanation for such a difference could be due to the dissimilar national interests of donors in Africa. This study finally suggests that African countries should accelerate the pace of advancing domestic economies and rely less on foreign assistance, in order to establish a fairer and more equal international economic order.     

Aid-for-trade facilitation

‘Aid for Trade’ is an ongoing and high-profile discussion associated with the Doha negotiations of the World Trade Organization. It also relates to questions of how best to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. Questions remain, however, about whether foreign aid spent on trade facilitation increases trade flows of developing countries. Does it work differently from aid in general? Using detailed data on aid flows from the OECD, the analysis here estimates the relationship between specific types of aid and trade flows, both globally and of the aid recipients. The findings indicate that aid spent on promoting trade is positively associated with global trade. For most types of such aid-for-trade facilitation, it is relatively more strongly associated with recipient exports than their imports. In contrast ‘other’ types of aid are more strongly associated with recipient imports. Based on elasticities estimated over 16 years of trade and aid data for 40 donor countries and about 170 country trading pairs, our results suggest that a 1% increase in aid-for-trade facilitation (of about US220 million in 2008) correlates to about US 220 million in 2008) correlates to about US 290 million of additional exports from the aid receiving countries.     

International trade and agricultural production: Evidence from the Southern African Development Community sub-region

Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries have undertaken substantial reforms in market liberalisation policies and regional integration initiatives. Theory suggests that trade can affect output through the exploitation of comparative advantage, increasing return to scale, liberalisation policies and technology. This work investigates the impact of agricultural exports to, machinery and chemical imports from and tariffs on agricultural products by total partners to the Southern African Customs' Union, SADC, sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world on agricultural production. Following Hausman tests, three panel fixed-effect models are estimated. The first is for aggregate machinery imports, chemicals imports and agricultural exports. The second is for disaggregated exports and imports according to the respective destination and source regions above. The third is for aggregate imports and disaggregated tariffs implemented by the various export destination regions toward the SADC. The results agree with the theory that international trade is good for development. Agricultural market expansion through export opportunities and access to inputs are significant sources of agricultural production enhancement in the SADC region. Tariffs barriers to agricultural exports are found to be significant impediments to agricultural production. However, the disparity of effects by export destination and the insignificance of the impact of trade with the rest of Africa are worth emphasising.     

Trade effects of European Community preferences to Mediterranean countries: The case of textile and clothing imports

The European Community (EC)'s preferential trade agreements with Mediterranean countries have been subject to little ex post assessment. This paper analyses the preferences' impact on EC textile and clothing imports from Mediterranean countries. The preferred imports grew faster than world trade or OECD imports from developing countries, and as a proportion of EC imports and Mediterranean exports; EC preferences thus appear to have had a significant effect on Mediterranean countries' textile and clothing exports, although some recipients have taken greater advantage than others. Post-1977 EC protectionism in these products further benefited the preference-recipients, who were largely unimpeded by quatitative restrictions.     

Broadband use and trade facilitation: Impacts on bilateral trade of sub-Saharan countries

This paper investigates the direct and combined impacts of trade facilitation and information and communication technology (ICT) on bilateral flows of 25 sub-Saharan countries. For that purpose, we select time to export and import as specific trade facilitation indicators and broadband use to study ICT impacts. Our sample covers a total of 93 countries over the period 2004–2018. By preprocessing data analysis, we impute time costs missing values, an essential shortcoming of the available databases, to study trade facilitation over time. Lastly, we employ a gravity model and implement a Bonus Vetus Estimation. Our results show that broadband use exerts a positive and significant effect on trade, especially relevant for intra-African trade flows. Furthermore, the combined effects indicate that broadband also modulates the negative impacts of time to export and time to import in the case of intra-SSA countries' trade. The more significant result is found for time to export. Our results also confirm that time costs are not only particularly harmful to intra-African trade but also negatively impact trade flows from SSA countries to the rest of the world. These outcomes show the importance of coordinating trade facilitation and digital transformation policies, particularly those devoted to digitally transforming African customs.     

Prospects for the manufacturing exports of the non-candidate Mediterranean countries in a community of twelve

The paper examines the impact of the accession of Greece, Portugal and Spain on the exports of manufactures of the non-candidate, non-member Mediterranean countries (NCMC). The effects of the second enlargement of the EEC on the manufacturing exports of the NCMC are examined by looking at the changes in post-enlargement market access principally in two groups of markets, i.e. the markets of the European Community of Nine (EEC-9) and the markets of the new entrants. The structure of the manufacturing exports to the EEC-9 of the newly acceding countries is compared to the structure of the exports of NCMC to the Community in order to see the extent to which EEC-9 imports from NCMC will be replaced by sources from the new entrants. The potential for NCMC trade expansion and trade discrimination in the markets of the new entrants is also investigated. The paper concludes by pointing out the commodity groups where trade conflicts between the enlarged EEC and the NCMC can potentially arise.     

Informal retailing through home-based micro-enterprises: The role of spaza shops

The informal trade sector constitutes an important part of the South African economy, with estimated sales of R32 billion in 2002. Its emergence is largely attributed to the divergence between the growth in population, especially the urban population, and employment growth in the formal economy. Growth of informal enterprises, especially in the retail sector, is also thriving on the demand of less affluent households, whose household needs for unsophisticated and affordable products are aptly supplied by the informal sector. The aim of this article is to focus on one of the prominent sub-sectors of informal retailing, namely spaza or tuck shops, defined as small retail businesses which operate from a residential stand or home. Particular attention is paid to the size, role and characteristics of spaza trade in South Africa, which is estimated to account for nearly 3 per cent of South Africa's retail trade.     

增加值视角下金砖国家制造业的贸易利得与竞争力研究

基于贸易增加值核算的基本原理,对金砖五国制造业出口增加值进行分解,同时利用标准显示性竞争指数测算金砖国家制造业竞争力,研究发现：中国的贸易利得与庞大的出口总额严重不匹配,其他金砖四国的贸易利得远远高于中国;对中国、巴西和印度而言,基于国内增加值测算的NRCA值要高于基于出口总额测算的NRCA值,而俄罗斯和南非恰恰相反;金砖五国在低技术制造业上表现出各自的竞争优势,除了中国在电子通信和光学设备制造业及机械制造业有相对的竞争优势外,金砖五国整体上在高技术产业层面与美日德等发达国家存在较大差距。应从培育高级要素、产能合作、共建科技创新体系等方面来提高金砖国家制造业竞争力。     

Trade and the structure of South African production, 1984-97

With the onset of trade liberalisation, fears have been raised concerning the impact of trade on manufacturing output, employment and growth. Using an input–output methodology, this article decomposes South African output growth between 1984 and 1997 into final demand expansion, trade flows and technology. There are two main findings. First, trade liberalisation has not deindustrialised the manufacturing sector. Although import penetration has risen, export growth has matched and exceeded the potential import-induced losses in domestic production. South Africa's response thus conforms closely to international evidence. Secondly, a combination of strong growth in capital-intensive exports and import penetration in ultra-labour-intensive sectors has aided the structural shift in production towards capital-intensive sectors. However, capital-biased supply-side policies, as well as endemic problems within ultra-labour-intensive sectors, suggest that domestic factors and not trade liberalisation lie behind this shift.     

Impacts of the Rise of China on Developing Country Trade: Evidence from North Africa*

Abstract: Despite the global financial and economic crisis, China has continued to experience strong export‐driven growth and, indeed, became the world's largest exporting country in 2009. This rise of China in international markets presents African countries with growing competition in their home and export markets, but also with new opportunities. This paper focuses on the impacts of these developments on countries in North Africa, which are directly affected by the prominence of Chinese manufacturing. In particular, the analysis addresses two policy questions: First, is competition from China leading to substantial displacement of resources that incur significant adjustment costs while moving to new activities, or are there opportunities to exploit finer patterns of specialization that entail less disruption? And second, will policies that mitigate the impact of competition from China limit the longer‐term capacity to exploit new opportunities in the global market? The findings from the empirical analysis suggest that policy makers can support North African producers in the increasingly fierce competition with China by reviewing the regulatory and incentives environment, reducing trade logistics costs, and broadening trade promotion efforts to non‐traditional markets.     

Exchange rate volatility and agricultural trade under policy reforms in South Africa

Decades of government intervention have helped develop the South African agriculture sector to its present state. Policy reforms have included trade and exchange rate policies to increase the country's international competitiveness, reduce poverty and promote economic growth. These reforms are facilitating the growth in agricultural trade and South Africa's reintegration into the global economy. Annual agricultural exports and imports have increased. This paper uses annual data and a vector error-correction model to investigate the supply and demand relationships for agricultural trade flows in South Africa during the past four decades. The results show that prices, real exchange rates, domestic production capacity and real incomes have significant impacts on the country's agricultural trade. In particular, exchange rate volatility has negative impacts. This cannot be viewed solely as an exogenous source of macroeconomic instability in South Africa, as domestic policies play a crucial role in influencing the movement of exchange rates.     

Remedy or Poison: Impacts of China's Outward Direct Investment on Its Exports

During the past decade, China's outward direct investment (ODI) and exports have experienced rapid growth, drawing increasing attention to the relationship between them. Using the gravity model based on panel data on China's ODI and trade to 174 countries and regions during 2003–2012, the present paper investigates the impacts of China's ODI on exports. We find that China's ODI to a host country significantly promotes China's trade with that economy: a 10‐percent increase in ODI stock can lead to a 2.14‐percent increase in exports, a 2.07‐percent increase in imports and a 2.87‐percent increase in net exports. The scale of the host country's economy, its infrastructure and its distance to China also have significant impacts on China's exports. Therefore, growth in ODI will facilitate China's trade and integration into the global economy, and enhance industrial upgrading in China by transferring the low‐end industries abroad.     

Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa: Past Performance and the Way Forward

Abstract: Regional trade arrangements (RTAs) in Africa have been ineffective in promoting trade and foreign direct investment. Relatively high external trade barriers and low resource complementarity between member countries limit both intra‐ and extraregional trade. Small market size, poor transport facilities and high trading costs make it difficult for African countries to reap the potential benefits of RTAs. To increase regional trade and investment, African countries need to undertake more broad‐based liberalization and streamline existing RTAs, supported by improvements in infrastructure and trade facilitation. Early action to strengthen the domestic revenue base would help address concerns over revenue losses from trade liberalization.     

贸易便利化对中国-东盟贸易影响的实证分析

本文采用口岸效率、海关环境、国内规制环境以及电子商务应用4个指标对贸易便利化进行测度,利用引力模型定量分析贸易便利化对中国与东盟贸易流量的影响,同时分析不同的关税税率对推进贸易便利化并影响贸易流量的不同作用。最后,针对实证研究结果对贸易便利化改革提出可行性建议。     

A dynamic analysis of the impact of uncertainty on import- and/or export-led growth: The experience of Japan and the Asian Tigers

Increasing integration of the Asian Tigers with the world economy through trade has exposed their income and trade to greater uncertainty and volatility. This paper models uncertainty in trade and income and re-examines the stability of the trade-growth nexus for Japan and the Asian Tigers in a dynamic framework. We find that in a volatile environment Japan's GDP growth is only import-led while Hong Kong's GDP growth is both export and import growth-led. On the other hand, incorporating uncertainty breaks the causal link between Korea's GDP growth and trade but it does not affect Taiwan's mutually causative relationship between GDP growth, with exports and imports. Lastly, the varied qualitative and quantitative impact of volatility in imports and exports on income growth among the Asian Tigers provides further thought for policy making.     

Reviewing South Africa's marketing and trade policies for genetically modified products

South Africa is unique in that it has commercialised genetically modified (GM) crops and has a functional biosafety system, which allows for trade in both GM and non-GM crops, despite being surrounded by countries banning the use of GM products. This paper analyses the past achievements and evolving changes in marketing and trade policies for GM products in South Africa. A quantitative analysis of South Africa's GM imports and exports demonstrates the success of South Africa's flexible regulatory system. Yet a review of recent reforms indicates a trend towards more rigid trade and marketing regulations of GM products. This paper suggests five policy recommendations to improve rather than rigidify regulations and allow South Africa to adapt to global changes, manage risks and take advantage of potentially promising new GM technologies.