日韩贸易摩擦的原因、影响及趋势分析

日本对出口韩国的生产半导体零部件的3种核心原材料采取管制措施,其根本目的在于掌握半导体乃至高技术领域的主导权。出口管制实施后,部分日本企业试图通过拓展其他国家市场来弥补因对韩出口管制造成的损失,也有些企业计划在海外设厂以便避开政府管制向韩国供应原材料。出口管制还导致日本产品在韩遭到抵制、韩国赴日游客锐减等。韩国通过半导体核心部件国产化、进口来源地多元化等对策,在一定程度上减少了贸易制裁对半导体行业的负面影响,使日本被迫放宽出口管制。由于日韩处于半导体全球价值链分工不同环节中,存在紧密的"一荣俱荣,一损俱损"的依存关系,因此,日韩贸易摩擦的缓和存在内在必然性。另外,RCEP签署以及中日韩自贸区谈判等外部因素会进一步促进日韩贸易关系改善。     

The other trade war: Quantifying the Korea–Japan trade dispute

In mid-2019 a new trade war between Korea and Japan started heating up, while the U.S.–China trade war held the spotlight. This paper documents the recent Korea–Japan trade dispute and quantifies its economic impacts. We consider a set of non-tariff distortions—Japanese export controls combined with Korean boycotts of Japanese goods. We simulate the impact of these actions using a multi-region general equilibrium model calibrated to the GTAP version 10 accounts and observed trade responses in the Korea Customs Service data. We find a welfare loss of 0.144% ($1.0 billion) for Korea and 0.013% ($346 million) for Japan. Sectoral impacts include a 0.25% reduction in chemical production in Japan. In Korea the reduction in imports from Japan is offset by increases in domestic production and imports from other countries.     

THE ROLE OF HONG KONG IN SINO-TAIWAN AND SINO-KOREA TRADE, 1981-87

Sino-Taiwan and Sino-Korea trade through Hong Kong has been growing steadily since early 1980's. Direct trade is impossible because of the lack of diplomatic relations between China and Taiwan and China and S. Korea, Thus, an intermediary is essential to carry out the transactions. Then, there is the issue of why Hong Kong is chosen as the major intermediary. This relates to the transportation costs and transaction costs advantages that Hong Kong possesses as an entrepot. As the major intermediary in Sino-Taiwan and Sino-Korea trade, Hong Kong is playing multiple roles. It is serving as an entrepot in commodity trade; as an agent in the export of technology from Taiwan and S. Korea to China; as a mediator in trade disputes; and as the middle-man in some trade related issues such as the application of patent protection and the establishment of trade offices. Above all it is observed that Hong Kong has major roles to play not only in the case of indirect trade, but also in the case of direct trade. In the future, there might not be much chance for the legalization of direct trade. Nevertheless, the recent change in the trade and investment policies of Taiwan and S. Korea has shown that the future prospect of indirect trade is very bright.     

Do Free Trade Agreements Increase the New Goods Margin? Evidence from Korea

We analyze the changes in the composition of bilateral trade—and more specifically, in the new goods margin—following the free trade agreements (FTAs) signed by Korea between 2004 and 2008. We find that new goods trade increased disproportionately after the FTAs came into effect, and that least-traded goods (LTG)—those accounting for the lowest 10% of trade prior to the FTAs—ended up accounting for 37% of post-FTA trade with FTA partners. In contrast, the corresponding share for a comparable group of countries that did not sign FTAs with Korea was only half as large, averaging close to 20%. We also find that only less than 2% of all least-traded products accounted for most of the growth in LTG trade, and that those goods tended to be clustered in the same industries as the intensively-traded goods. Furthermore, a larger fraction of LTG became heavily traded for the case of FTA partners than for non-FTA countries. Finally, we find evidence that least-traded imports were subject to higher pre-FTA tariff protection than other products.     

TRADE PATTERNS AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES: TESTING THE ASIAN CURRENCY BASKET USING AN INTERNATIONAL INPUT‐OUTPUT SYSTEM

This paper aims at analyzing exchange rates and trade patterns of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, China, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan in relation to Japan and the United States, with reference to the Asian currency crises in 1997. In order to analyze these issues, we constructed an international input‐output model linked with macroeconometric models of the ten countries/regions. Analyses on the Asian exchange rates with a currency basket peg framework show that the Asian exchange rate policy was the de‐facto dollar peg policy. As for trade patterns in relation to the yen‐dollar rate; when a country/region's industrial structure is similar to that of Japan's and the yen is weak, the appropriate change of the yen's weight proves to hold its competitiveness. By contrast, the weak yen shows a decrease of its imports, regarding complementary structure. In either case, however, effects are limited.     

中韩日自由贸易协定(FTA)的可行性及其经济效应

本文首先回顾中韩日对自由贸易协定(FTA)的认识及其政策的转变、以及至今所进行的研究和谈判的进程,在此基础上分析各国的立场及其政策。其次,从短期静态效应和长期动态效应的角度研究FTA将给各国带来的效应与冲击,指出中韩日FTA的经济效应将更多地体现在促进相互贸易及经济增长等长期的动态效应上。第三,分析推进三国FTA所面临的问题以及各国必需进行的战略调整,强调中韩日FTA应该成为促进东亚经济合作的重要一环,并提出中国在这过程中应采取的战略步骤。     

TOWARD A PAN‐ARAB FREE TRADE AREA: ASSESSING TRADE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF THE AGADIR AGREEMENT

On February 25, 2004, a free trade agreement (FTA) was concluded between Jordan, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia, as a first step toward the implementation of a larger Pan‐Arab FTA. This paper proposes an estimation of the trade potential among these countries. Based on new developments of the gravity equation, we estimate a static and dynamic panel data model, using respectively the Hausman and Taylor, and the Arellano, Bond, and Bover's estimators. Results show that trade flows remain dramatically low between these countries, as a result of high trade costs. In particular, the estimated border effects clearly reflect a significant trade integration deficit in this area. However, there is only a limited export potential between these countries, due to the lack of trade complementarity between them. As a consequence, the Agadir Agreement may only have limited trade effects.     

China＇s Import-exchange Rate Linkage： Evidence from the China-bound Exports of Japan and Korea

This paper examines how the China-bound exports of Japan and Korea are related to exchange rates, motivated by the fact that processing trade makes up a large proportion of China＇s trade, and that Japan and Korea are the leading source countries for processing imports. Because processing imports are inputs for exports, the link between such imports and China＇s exchange rates are ambiguous. We estimate export functions that include China＇s RMB real effective exchauge rates （REER） along with bilateral real exchange rates （B RER） using Johausen ＇s cointegration method aud find that the RMB REER significantly affects Japanese and Korean exports to China, even more so than BRER in most cases examined. These two exchange rates appear in the export equations with opposite signs. Subsequently, we use the estimated model to illustrate the importance of accounting for a concurrent change in B RER when analyzing the effects of a hypothetical RMB revaluation on China＇s trade balances despite the apparently weak imports-B RER linkage.     

Do Export Promotion Agencies Increase Exports?

In this paper, we examine the role of export promotion agencies (EPAs) in promoting exports from Japan and Korea. Looking at two home countries enables us to tackle endogeneity issues by controlling for both country‐pair time‐invariant characteristics and importing‐country time‐varying characteristics. Our empirical results indicate that EPA has a positive and significant effect on exports even when we control for endogeneity. However, the size of the effect becomes substantially smaller, implying the importance of addressing endogeneity in accurately measuring the impact of EPA on exports. In addition, we find that EPA's (marginal) effects are larger in exporting to low‐income trade partners than in exporting to high‐income trade partners.     

基于贸易关联性的中、韩自由贸易区可行性分析

近年来,中国与韩国的对外贸易发展都较为迅速,双边贸易的发展极为迅速。2005年底,韩国宣布承认中国完全市场经济地位,使中、韩企业开展贸易的环境更为公平、公正。研究中国与韩国贸易关系的意义显得突出。通过对两国GDP,各自对外贸易及双边贸易分析,可知两国贸易发展有着深刻的内在联系,为两国建立自由贸易区打下了坚实的基础。自贸区建设可以解决目前双方贸易中存在的问题,因此,建立中、韩自由贸易区势在必行。应立足长远,在东北亚合作和"10+3"合作框架内建立中、韩自由贸易区。     

中日韩自由贸易区对浙江省外贸出口结构及出口规模的影响

文章分析浙江省对外贸易的出口结构，然后采用贸易引力模型分析中日韩自由贸易区对我国浙江省出口规模的影响。研究结果表明：中日韩之间存在较紧密的贸易关系，尤其是浙江省与日韩两国之间存在较大的贸易潜力。美中不足的是浙江省贸易结构相对较为不舍理，在与日韩贸易中处于劣势地位。     

EXPLORING THE SPECTRUM OF EXPORT DESTINATION: THE GEOGRAPHIC SPREAD OF KOREAN EXPORTS,ITS DETERMINANTS,AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Recent research in international trade has explored the stylized facts and causes and effects of export diversification. A simple model in this paper drawing on the work of Melitz suggests that there is an order in which a country spreads its goods to foreign countries. We estimate the order by using a methodology which takes account of the fact that most goods are not exported to several countries in our sample (unbalanced panel). We find that Korea exports its new goods first to the United States, followed by Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, and most recently to Bosnia-Herzegovina. Finally we find that the countries that Korea has exported to first are those with large GDP, low tariff rates, geographic proximity, language familiarity, in-country Korean export promotion offices, and high-quality institutions.     

China＇s Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN, Japan and Korea： A Comparative Analysis

The role of China in East Asia's recovery from the recent global financial and economic crisis highlights China's position as an engine of growth for this region. From the viewpoint of China, there are many potential gains from entering into free trade agreements (FTAs) with its neighbors, who collectively form a large and fast‐growing market. In this paper, we qualitatively and quantitatively assess the four main permutations of China's FTAs with East Asian major economies: China–ASEAN, China–Japan, China–Korea and ASEAN+3. We compare the effects of these FTAs on China's output and welfare. Our comparative analysis shows that China will gain from all three bilateral FTAs, while gaining the most from the ASEAN+3. Because forming a region‐wide FTA, such as the ASEAN+3, is expected to be gradual and difficult, China should continue to engage in bilateral FTAs as a medium‐term and alternative strategy. However, in the long term, China should pursue a region‐wide FTA.     

RCA indices,multinational production and the Ricardian trade model

The practice of using Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) Indices to determine the flow of goods trade among countries is well established. But an important issue that demands attention is whether the RCA indices reflect the essentials of comparative advantage theory. Deb and Basu Foreign Trade Rev 46(3):3–28, (2011) examined the consistency of alternative RCA indices with the Heckscher-Ohlin theory of comparative advantage, leaving scope for re-examination of the indices in the context of the Ricardian comparative advantage theory, which insists on relative factor productivity differences among countries contrary to Heckscher-Ohlin’s relative factor endowment differences. The other issue which has been overlooked in much of the existing literature is the importance of value-added trade. With the growing importance of global production chains, RCA indices based on gross export values may not portray an accurate picture of the underlying comparative advantage of countries. In this context, adjusting the RCA indices to incorporate domestic value-added in exports seems to be quite relevant. This paper explores the consistency of RCA indices based on domestic value-added in exports with the Ricardian theory of comparative advantage using a panel data approach. A brief review on the structures of alternative RCA indices is also provided. The Log-of-Balassa index is found to be the best performer in this empirical examination, although the deficiencies of the index for cross-country or cross-commodity comparison must be acknowledged. The index of Yu et al. Ann Reg Sci 43(1):267–282, (2009) does possess the latter feature but in our study its performance is quite poor and hence its consistency with the Ricardian theory of comparative advantage is questionable.     

中日韩自由贸易区的经济效应及推进路径——基于SMART的模拟分析

本文在SMART模型框架下建立了一个局部均衡模型,基于HS6分位数据模拟中日韩三国间不同的阶段性双边关税减让方案和长期内关税的全部减让对三国经济的影响。结果表明,中日韩自由贸易协定启动后,三国的农业部门、日本和韩国的纺织品部门以及中国的汽车部门将受到来自其他两国较为明显的冲击。机电产品及其零部件的区域内贸易增长潜力有限,但三国在该领域的垂直专业化分工尚具备进一步拓展的潜力。中日韩自由贸易区谈判首先要克服来自当前高度保护部门的阻力,而在机电产品领域应重点促进区域内投资和技术贸易的便利化,运用发达的地区分工网络提升各国在后危机时代的全球竞争力。     

日韩对东盟的FTA战略及我国的对策

近年来,东亚地区的区域经济一体化发展迅速,中国、日本、韩国和东盟分别制定了各自的战略来应对一体化带来的挑战。目前,东盟已分别同中国、日本和韩国签署了自由贸易协定。文章指出,面对日韩对东盟的FTA战略,我国应该从扩大彼此间贸易、鼓励企业走出去、做好贸易平衡、加强双边的资金和技术合作等方面来促进中国—东盟自由贸易区的发展。     

Bilateral trade between China and Canada: trends,patterns, and comparisons

Using data from the United Nations Comtrade database Standard International Trade Classification Revision III, this study examined major trends of and changes in the bilateral trade between Canada and China. It investigated issues related to trade intensities, intra‐industry trade, comparative advantages, and trade complementarity in the two countries. The results showed that there has been a significant increase in bilateral trade between the two countries over the past decade or so. However, the estimated trade intensity indices suggest that Canada and China are trading less than they should. On the other hand, analysis using revealed comparative advantage indices suggests that there is no overlap in comparative advantage between two countries. Further, the trade complementarity indices show that Canada's export structure is compatible with China's import structure and at the same time, China's export structure is also compatible with Canada's import structure. Thus, there is a high potential to increase bilateral trade between Canada and China.     

Shifting International Competitiveness: An Analysis of Market Share in Manufacturing Industries in Japan,Korea, Taiwan and the USA*

In the present study we conduct constant market share analysis of the imports and apparent consumption of the manufacturing industries of four major economies‐Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the USA. Additionally, the current study disaggregates import penetration in manufacturing, including sectors with relatively high technological requirements. Statistical tests of the significance of changes in import penetration in manufacturing industries are also conducted. The real growth of exports and apparent consumption in the two largest OECD markets is decomposed into: (i) the commodity composition effect; and (ii) the competitiveness effect. Finally, we examine the significance of trade policy for changes in import penetration in Japan and the USA.     

VALUE CONTENT AND PRODUCTION NETWORKS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: APPLICATION OF AFTA AND ASEAN‐PLUS‐ONE FTA FORMULAS

Rules of origin are an integral part of all trade rules. To be eligible for Common Effective Preferential Tariffs under the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) agreement, a product must satisfy the conditions relative to value content. The present paper seeks to calculate value content of industries in Southeast Asia, using the formula specified by the rules of origin in AFTA, the ASEAN–China FTA, the ASEAN–Korea FTA, and the ASEAN–Japan FTA. Moreover, the paper attempts to calculate true value content of industries by applying a simple technique of input–output analysis, and to estimate error margins (i.e., overestimates) in calculating value content. The paper also examines the relationship between value content and production networks. The paper finds that many industries exhibited declines in local content during the period 1990–2000, but that the geographical spread of production networks raised the proportion of inputs supplied by the neighboring ASEAN countries, so that the contribution of the cumulative rule of origin increased.     

美韩FTA对中国出口的贸易替代效应研究

美国和韩国于2007年6月正式签署了自由贸易协定。两国都是中国重要的出口市场,中美和中韩出口结构存在一定的竞争性。美韩FTA将会使中国出口产品面临相对较高的关税,差异性的关税可能使美国市场上中国出口产品被韩国替代,同时,韩国市场上中国出口产品也可能被美国替代。本文考察了三国HS2位编码产品的国际竞争力和平均实施关税,以定量估计美韩FTA对中国造成的贸易替代效应。结果表明,在美国市场上,中国的纺织品和服装出口将受到明显影响;在韩国市场上,中国农产品和工业品出口都会受到不同程度影响,且受影响的产品种类较多。