Fertility,intergenerational transfers and economic development

This paper develops a model of endogenous growth where agents are altruistic and value both the utilities of their parent and of their children. Individuals endogenously choose the number of their children, and arbitrate between financing education, leaving them some bequest and offering some gift to their parents. We establish the existence of three types of long run regime. Starting from a low level of human capital, an economy converges towards a stationary state associated with a constant output per worker, a high level of fertility and ascendant transfers. If the initial level of human capital is not too low, another stationary state jointly exists with a lower level of fertility and no transfer. Finally, starting from a high level of human capital, the economy experiences a steady growth of output per worker associated with a low fertility level and descendant transfers. We then assume that an economy is initially in the stationary underdevelopment regime with ascendant transfers, and we study the power of different policies to push the economy toward the growth regime. We successively consider a fertility control policy, an education subsidies policy, and the introduction of a pension system for the elderly.     

预期寿命延长、延迟退休与经济增长

本文通过构建一个包含财政支出和内生生育率的世代交叠模型,考察预期寿命延长和延迟退休对经济增长的影响,并设定目标探讨预期寿命延长过程中如何调整退休年龄。研究发现,预期寿命延长使均衡状态的生育率下降、财政养老保险支出占比上升、劳均产出和总产出减少,延迟退休使均衡状态的生育率上升、财政养老保险支出占比下降、劳均产出和总产出增加,二者的影响效应相反,表明退休年龄延迟可以抵消预期寿命延长产生的负面影响。在财政养老负担不增、劳均产出不减、总产出不减三种目标下,退休年龄延迟岁数临界值均随预期寿命的延长而增加,但三种目标下的经济效应差别较大,且都会降低生育率。本文的政策启示是:预期寿命延长背景下,延迟退休是一个合理且必需的政策选项;建立与预期寿命相联动的退休年龄调整机制,同时拓宽养老保险制度筹资渠道和完善生育配套政策,有助于遏制生育率下降、减轻财政养老负担和促进经济增长。     

ASYMPTOTIC AGE STRUCTURES AND INTERGENERATIONAL TRADE

While Lotka and Lopez proposed conditions on (exogenous) fertility and mortality laws under which populations with distinct initial age structures exhibit the same asymptotic age structure, this paper re‐examines age‐structure stabilization and convergence by considering a three‐period overlapping generations model where fertility and longevity are determined by human capital accumulation and by intergenerational trade. It is shown that the age structure must converge asymptotically towards a stable structure, and that populations with distinct initial age structures end up with the same long‐run age structure when fertility and mortality laws are converging, which requires converging intergenerational terms of trade.     

Sustainability via Intergenerational Transfers in a Stock‐Flow‐Consistent Model

Sustainability is about meeting present needs without compromising the needs of future generations. Achieving sustainability is thus bound to have distributional consequences. But to what extent is it possible to correct the ex‐post distribution via transfers between generations? Starting from a numerical example, the analysis uses a stock‐flow‐consistent model with a view to investigate the limitations and consequences of such transfers. It shows that inter‐generational transfers face significant limitations which render compensation payments practically impossible. Moreover, the analysis allows some conclusions regarding the effects of introducing a pension systems and/or a more explicit role of public investment in capital accumulation.     

Inconsistency and over‐determination in neo‐Kaleckian growth models: A note

This short note argues that the canonical neo‐Kaleckian growth model does not yield a balanced growth path due to the absence of an inbuilt mechanism by which desired and actual rates of capital accumulation are equalized. Introducing non‐generating capacity autonomous demand does not solve such inconsistency. Contrary to what Lavoie ( 2016 ) claims, we show that the latter is also unable to bring capacity utilization to its normal level. In light of recent contributions (e.g., Nikiforos, 2013, 2016 ), we suggest that making normal capacity utilization an endogenous variable is an alternative better suited to deal with the issue.     

SCALE‐INDEPENDENT TECHNOLOGICAL‐KNOWLEDGE BIAS,HUMAN‐CAPITAL ACCUMULATION AND GENDER INEQUALITY

We present a dynamic, non‐scale general‐equilibrium model with female and male human capital where Schumpeterian R&D and human‐capital accumulation are the engines of growth and gender wage inequality. Gender wage inequality is encouraged by changes in relative supply and relative demand of both human‐capital types. Relative supply restricts the levels of employed human capital. Relative demand is affected by the technological‐knowledge bias, which is driven by the price channel and is affected by human‐capital accumulation. In particular, the female‐premium per unit of human capital and per worker increases when the observed discrimination against women decreases or is removed.     

Valuation of Angel‐Backed Companies: The Role of Investor Human Capital

This article examines how angel investors' human capital affects the valuation of their portfolio companies, based on the pre‐money valuation of 123 investment rounds in 58 Belgian companies. We argue that angel investors with higher levels of human capital will perceive a higher value‐creating potential in entrepreneurial opportunities through their ability to see more value‐creating options, a higher value‐adding potential post‐investment, and an enhanced legitimacy provided to the venture. Economic theories suggest they appropriate these rents through lower valuations, whereas stewardship theory suggests they share value creation with entrepreneurs. Consistent with stewardship theory, we show angel investors negotiate higher valuations when they have higher levels of human capital, more specifically if they studied longer, have a business degree, more entrepreneurial experience, or previous professional law experience. As such, our results contrast with the behavior of venture capital investors who negotiate lower valuations when they have more experience.     

弹性退休年龄改革和养老金缺口的弥补：基于人力资本理论

老职工退出劳动领域时点其人力资本存量和新职工刚进入劳动领域时点的人力资本存量应该相等,所以应该采用弹性退休年龄的改革,从增加积累和减少支出二方面来弥补养老金的缺口。用保险精算原理得出了退休年龄和退休给付额之间的对应关系,并提出相应的政策建议。     

Raising the Mandatory Retirement Age and its Effect on Long‐run Income and Pay‐as‐you‐go (PAYG) Pensions

In this paper we study the effects of raising the mandatory retirement age in the neoclassical growth model context. It is shown that postponement of the retirement age may be harmful for long‐run income and even for pensions. Our findings show that the retirement age might be reduced, thereby obtaining a higher income and even higher pension benefits. This suggests that the idea that a higher mandatory age of retirement is always beneficial in the long run for income and pension payments is theoretically controversial.     

Is it ‘you’ or ‘your workplace’? Predictors of job‐related training in the Anglo‐American world

This paper examines the determinants of job‐related training and workplace voice. Using data from a unique 2016 cross‐national survey of Australian, British, Canadian and American employees, the paper contrasts two classic formulations in the literature; (1) the neoclassical/human capital approach which predicts that individual characteristics (such as age and education) which increase the efficiency of learning, will have the largest impact on the allocation of training (i.e. younger and more educated employees will be afforded training) and (2) the traditional institutional approach which favors the structural characteristics present at the industry and firm level, the nature of the job itself and the strategic choices of firms as the major predictors of job‐related training. We find that age – a key factor in the human capital model – plays a significant role in the allocation of training but that education (in keeping with recent evidence) does not. In sum the human capital model provides, at best, only a partial explanation for the differences in training observed across individuals. In contrast, variables invoked by the institutional literature (i.e. occupation level; industry; ownership type; and market structure) are highly significant and account for a much greater proportion of the variance in training observed across workers. Other institutional factors such as the presence of a union and a human resource department were strong positive predictors of job‐related training. But most important were product‐market strategy and employee voice. Respondents working in firms utilizing a ‘high road/high quality’ product/service strategy and with a workplace consultative committee were significantly more likely to receive training than similar workers employed in observably similar firms. This last finding supports the industrial relations view of voice as an important channel by which training is optimally delivered inside the firm.     

Female‐Led High‐Growth: Examining the Role of Human and Financial Resource Management

We integrate research on upper echelons theory, the resource‐based view, and gender to explore conditions that facilitate high growth for female‐led firms. We argue that female entrepreneurs have certain advantages that help them leverage their firms’ human and financial capital to achieve high growth. In support, using a sample of U.S.‐based entrepreneurial firms, we found evidence that having a female lead entrepreneur positively moderated the positive relationships between indicators of firms’ human and financial capital and high growth. The findings have implications for programs, policies, and practices to encourage more high growth in firms with female lead entrepreneurs.     

The returns to training in Russia: a difference‐in‐differences analysis

The experience of developed countries – particularly member‐states of the OECD – has shown that employers are actively investing in developing the human capital of their employees. According to research conducted by the World Bank, more than half of the companies in developed countries provide their employees with training in one form or another. There is, however, reason to believe that the situation is quite different in Russia. Some studies have shown that the level of investment in training in Russia is much lower. This difference can be explained by the fact that employers do not see the point in such investment because it is much easier to lure employees with the required qualifications than to train their own staff. Moreover, Russia faces a problem with high employee mobility, meaning that companies are not sure that they will get a return on their investment. Given these circumstances, the present study examines whether investments in human capital in Russia are profitable. It investigates the wage return to job‐related training using a difference‐in‐differences estimator to control for unmeasured differences in ability and measured differences in past wages as a proxy for ability and motivation. Estimates use panel data from The Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey – Higher School of Economics from 2004 to 2011. As predicted, positive returns to training are identified and the returns increase absolutely with the level of past wages.     

TIME‐CONSISTENT AND MARKET‐CONSISTENT EVALUATIONS

We consider evaluation methods for payoffs with an inherent financial risk as encountered for instance for portfolios held by pension funds and insurance companies. Pricing such payoffs in a way consistent to market prices typically involves combining actuarial techniques with methods from mathematical finance. We propose to extend standard actuarial principles by a new market‐consistent evaluation procedure which we call “two‐step market evaluation.” This procedure preserves the structure of standard evaluation techniques and has many other appealing properties. We give a complete axiomatic characterization for two‐step market evaluations. We show further that in a dynamic setting with continuous stock prices every evaluation which is time‐consistent and market‐consistent is a two‐step market evaluation. We also give characterization results and examples in terms of g‐expectations in a Brownian‐Poisson setting.     

国企经营者报酬问题之我见

经营者报酬确定的依据有：经营者的人力资本成本；经营者人力资本所创造的价值；经营者人才的供求状况等。我国企业经营者的报酬体现不出其经营业绩。由于国有企业的特殊性，国企经营者的报酬体系设计，除考虑基薪和奖励报酬外，最主要的是要建立国企经营者的特殊高额退休金制度，提高其退休金期望，才能起到长期激励的效果。     

The Links between Early‐Life Cognition and Schooling and Late‐Life Financial Knowledge

Using the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, a sample of Wisconsin high school graduates from the class of 1957, we explore the relationship between late‐life financial knowledge and human capital formed in early life. Specifically, we examine the associations between early‐life cognition and schooling experiences—such as academic performance and coursework—and late‐life financial knowledge. Financial knowledge is measured as individuals' knowledge of their own financial situations, which we argue is a prerequisite for good financial behavior. We find that those with lower early‐life cognitive functioning, especially those without college degrees, have lower levels of financial knowledge in late life. We find more limited evidence for independent associations of academic performance and math course work with late‐life financial knowledge.     

POST‐KEYNESIAN EFFECTIVE DEMAND AND CAPITAL–LABOUR SUBSTITUTION

This paper analyses the relationship between the real wage rate and employment when we induce capital–labour substitution within a Post‐Keynesian Kaleckian model. To avoid the over‐determinacy problem, we consider a non‐homogeneous production function and cost minimization, in contrast to recent work that assumed a homogeneous production function and profit maximization. As a result, we find not only that increasing returns to scale are important in sustaining the long‐run stability condition, but also that if the increasing returns to scale are small, then it is more likely that employment will increase.     

THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS OF PAY‐AS‐YOU‐GO DEFINED‐CONTRIBUTION PENSION SCHEMES

The paper inquires into notional defined contribution pension schemes, which retain the pay‐as‐you‐go financing method while adopting the award and indexation formulas typical of funded, defined‐contribution systems. It examines the properties of the new arrangement and compares them with those of the traditional defined‐benefit pay‐as‐you‐go schemes.     

Intellectual Property Rights,FDI, R&D and Economic Growth: A Cross‐country Empirical Analysis

This paper aims to empirically examine how intellectual property rights (IPRs) protection, foreign direct investment (FDI) and research and development (R&D), along with other possible variables, may affect the economic growth of the host country. Using the panel data of 92 countries during 1970–2007, I conclude from the system generalised method of moments estimation that domestic investment share, FDI, R&D capacity, openness to trade, human capital and IPRs protection all have statistically significant and positive impacts on economic growth. A further investigation of countries at different levels of development suggests two striking findings. First, besides the domestic investment, openness, human capital and IPRs protection, R&D is the key to drive economic growth in the higher‐income countries, while FDI is the engine of growth in both higher‐income and middle‐income countries. Second, a positive and significant impact of IPRs protection on economic growth is found in both higher‐income and lower‐income countries. However, such an impact is not detected in the middle‐income countries.     

Belt‐and‐Road Initiative: Driving the need to understand intellectual capital in Chinese multinational enterprises

China's Belt‐and‐Road Initiative (BRI) is one of the most ambitious trade and development projects in history which intends to link Chinese multinational enterprises (CMNEs) to the Asian subcontinent, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe through two trade routes, land and sea. The project involves infrastructure development, human knowledge, and international relations to develop trade relationships. Increased competition along the two routes will see other governments taking initiatives to protect the business community in their nations; thus, adding barriers that must be overcome by CMNEs. The success of CMNEs in the BRI relies on the three components—structural, human, and relational—which are the three components of intellectual capital (IC). Through the use of IC CMNEs can assess their strengths and weaknesses. It will be the understanding of these strengths and weaknesses which will drive the success or failure of CMNEs.     

我国养老基金的投资模式

人口老龄化对养老保险制度提出了严峻的挑战 ,“统账结合”的基金缺口将通过国有股减持来弥补。而出于保值增值的需要 ,具有积累或部分积累性质的养老基金有必要进入资本市场 ,并具备了一定的进入条件。相应地 ,养老基金的投资模式也要进行多样化的投资选择 ,以达到保值增值的目的。