奥运经济与经济奥运

奥运经济是奥运会主办国在筹备和举办奥运会中出现的一种阶段性的经济现象或行为。1984年美国洛杉矶奥运会后,各国的经济学界逐步开始从正面认同了奥运会的经济作用,出现了奥运经济的概念。中国获得2008年奥运会的举办权,是世界赋予北京的一次历史性发展机遇。研究分析奥运经济的积极作用,正确引导和理性推进奥运经济,对我国举办好这届奥运会,促进社会经济发展,提升国际地位,大有裨益。     

奥运后：政策密集调整

彩绝伦的北京奥运会在万众瞩目中闭幕了，但中国经济增速下滑的脚步并未停止。这是经济周期使然，奥运会其实仅仅代表一个时间窗口。     

奥运与金融——奥运衍生金融商机

距离第28届北京奥林匹克运动会开幕还有600多天的时间．奥运会的日益临近．使得整个北京城都洋漱着欣喜，自豪、激动的气息。 高涨的奥运热情成为各商家追逐的焦点。作为经济核心的金融业又将面临哪些机遇？各金融机构已经为奥运做好准备了吗？奥运建设的资金情况以及未来北京的金融服务是否充分？ 现代奥运已经不是一场单纯的体育盛会，它悬一个国家综合国力的体现。奥运会的开展需要一个稳定和谐的金融环境。需要一个强有力的金融支持。同样奥运会对于中国金融业来说更是一次绝佳的机会，一次向全球展示中国金融良好形象的机会。     

传统中餐也奥运

“2008年北京奥运会，世界给中国一个机会．也给了中国老字号传统饮食一个借奥运走向世界的平台。”——《中餐迎来奥运机遇》一文真是写出中国人的心声。     

奥运后中国发展新模式

奥运会的成功举办，是中国向更高水平进步的新起点。之所以这样说，是因为北京奥运会所蕴含的三个理念，即绿色奥运、人文奥运、科技奥运，实际上就预示了中国发展方式的转型，即从过去更多依靠资源投入和廉价劳工转到更加注重生态和环境，更加注重用科技来改造传统产业，更加注重社会道德和精神的培育上来。这其实就是一个与传统发展模式不同的新的发展模式。     

奥运后:“鸟巢”依然繁荣

中国经济的发展不是因北京奥运会而始,自然也不会因北京奥运会而终。北京奥运会后,中国在推动经济又好又快发展的同时,将继续深化包括政治体制改革在内的全面     

李然：期待“后奥运”

在筹办奥运会和举办奥运会时，中国的环保、人权、政治制度、法治等诸多领域，在奥运会的推动下，呈现出开放和变革的良好局面。人们有理由期待，在奥运会结束后，上述领域能承接奥运会筹办和举办时的进展，进一步得到有力的推进，取得公众期待的成果，甚至进一步推动中国的改革开放进程，促进社会的全面进步。     

奥运经济及中国后奥运时期发展方向

2008年北京奥运会的大幕已经散去一年之久,关于北京奥运会结束之后北京乃至中国的下一步经济发展趋向成为了世界关注的焦点.北京能否依然保持经济的持续增长,奥运场馆及其它设施是否会出现闲置情况,一些与奥运相关的行业是否会出现衰退?人们对这些难题的关注达到了一个新的高度,奥运效应也成为了一个热点话题.     

奥运信用卡鉴赏拾遗

从1988年汉城奥运会中国银行首次发行奥运长城国际信用卡，到2008年北京奥运会中国内地及港澳台10余家金融机构发行题材各异的奥运系列信用卡，短短20年间，一张张卡片见证了中国信用卡市场的起步、发展和繁荣。《中国信用卡·生活》2008年第4期刊发了董峥先生撰写的《信用卡与奥运会的“零距离”》一文，本文试图利用现有的部分资料对原文适当作些补充，欢迎读者朋友指正。     

联迪商用圆满完成奥运任务

随着2008年奥运会、残奥会成功落下帷幕，一个强大、开放的中国展现在世人面前。在举国上下为奥运成功举杯欢庆之时，联迪商用作为幕后英雄中的一员，圆满完成了奥运期间产品和服务的稳定运行任务。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.