上海老了

上海已经冲到了现代化的前沿,而老龄化也先于现代化提前到来。“目前上海的人口老龄化程度已经达到发达国家的平均水平。”上海市副市长周太彤坦言。目前我国老龄人口占总人口的比率为7%左右,而上海这一数据是19．58%,这意味着,5个上海人中就有1个老人；而这一比重仍有上升趋势。19．58%的老龄化数字,已经与世界人口老龄化的“先行者”——日本的22％“比肩”。不过,近年来上海经济的迅速发展掩盖了人口老龄化问题；未富先老、养老体系尚未成熟等个人和社会原因,使上海这个经济发达城市遭遇新的挑战。现在,上海市政府已经将老龄事业纳入到“十一五”社会经济发展的整体框架之中；而上海率先孕育的“银发经济”,也引发和驱动了新的市场开发和商机,并为中国解决老龄化问题提供了可以借鉴的示范模本……     

绿色经济背景下湖北省老龄化发展的问题及对策

在改革开放不断深入的背景下,湖北省经济长期以来增长迅速,累积了雄厚的经济实力,经济结构也日趋合理。但同时,湖北省人口结构老龄化进程在不断加快,高龄人口明显增加。本文主要探讨在国家强调绿色经济与可持续发展的大背景下,湖北省面对老龄化相关问题应作出何种对策。     

人口红利与老龄化

人口转变要经历高少年儿童抚养比、高劳动年龄人口比和高老年抚养比三个阶段,在人口转变过程中不可避免地形成人口红利和老龄化。人口红利可以从不同的角度划分,如第一人口红利与第二人口红利、相对人口红利等。中国的人口老龄化具有老年人口规模巨大、老龄化发展迅速、地区发展不平衡、城乡倒置显著、女性老年人口数量多于男性、老龄化超前于现代化等六个特征。这使中国的老龄化发展既沿袭传统,又具有中国特色。     

低生育率时代的经济发展:结构、效率与人力资本投资

人口变量给中国经济发展带来的挑战主要体现为,快速的人口转变使得中国在迅速获取人口红利之后,在中等收入阶段就需要应对老龄化的挑战,中国的人口红利期也因此较之其他经济体更短。告别二元经济时期要素积累为主的经济增长方式,通过结构调整,提升经济效率已经成为未来推动经济增长唯一的手段。灵活的要素市场、积极反应的企业和训练有素的劳动者是结构调整尤其重要的三个支柱性领域。同时,还应通过积极有效的人力资本投资和人力资本的队列效应,缓解老龄化带来的挑战。     

各国争夺移民的时代即将到来

在这个老龄化与地缘经济不平衡同时发生的时代,21世纪全球移民人口的数量将不断上升.移民的流动方向将发生重大变化,劳动人口将被吸引到经济迅速增长的地区.在欧洲,传统移民目的地——西欧国家将面临吸引移民的激烈竞争,一个重要竞争对手是中国,该国到2020年以后将面临劳动人口下降.     

城市养老要三轨并行

一本世纪末,我国将进入"老年型"国家,届时60岁以上的老年人将达1.32亿人,约占到全国总人口的10.6%;2040年,老年人口将激增为3,8亿人,约占到全国总人口的1/4强,那时我国将成为名副其实的"超老年型"国家。——这一人口迅速老龄化的趋势所带来的最严峻后果之一,便是老年人的赡养问题。发展的不平衡性,是我国人口老龄化过程中的一个显著特点。事实显示,我国人口年龄结构由成年型过渡为老年型,首先是从城市尤其是大、中城市开始的。上海早在1979年便率先完成了老龄化,目前全国三大直辖市和部分省辖市,也都先于全国相继进     

我国人口老龄化问题探讨述要

我国随70年代计划生育工作的展开、以及80年代经济的迅速发展,年龄结构进入了迅速变动时期,估计到2000年前后,我国将进入老年型国家。目前,我国上海、北京、天津、浙江、江苏等省、市已成为“人口老年型”的城市和省区。在近20多年时间里,我国人口老龄化速度之快,是世界上罕见的。而且,更为突出的是,其他国家是在实现工业化,经济文化都比较发达后才进入老龄社会,而我国则是在生产力水平还较落后,经济文化尚不发达,人民生活才开始向小康水平过渡的2000年就面临到人口老龄化的问题。人口年龄结构的急剧变化,是一个直接影响我国社会和经济发展的战略问题。因此,党的十四大报告中明确提出,要“重视研究人口老龄化问题,认真做好这方面的工作”。我们要研究它的现状和发展趋势,以便采取相应对策,迎接老龄化的挑战。     

如何应对老龄化社会的挑战

税延优惠问题可能成为我国结构性减税下一时期的一个亮点如果按照国际标准来说,65岁以上人口超过7%就是老龄化状态。目前中国城市区域已较普遍地进入老龄状态,几年之后,整个社会就是一个老龄化的社会。有关数据显示,中国的人口红利大约在2015年就要见顶,然后迅速消失,所替代的是中国人口老龄化程度迅速     

长三角城市群的经济发展与人口迁移老龄化

2010年长三角人口总量、GDP总量，人口密度、人均GDP和地均GDP都处较高水平。长三角的高收入和优裕生活条件吸引外来人口流入。大量的人口流入，使上海、浙江的人口老龄化似乎得到了缓和，但户籍人口老龄化程度仍非常高。论文讨论了人口老龄化的三个阶段：长寿（健康）老龄化、少子老龄化和迁移（流动）老龄化。迁移老龄化加剧农村空心化，加大了政府和社区的社会责任；迁移老龄化的突发性使其与经济发展相关性下降：迁移老龄化也造成全局老龄化和区域老龄化、社会老龄化和家庭老龄化、户籍人口老龄化和常住人口老龄化相背离。这些都必须引起有关方面高度注意。     

老龄化下人均经济增长率变动的实证分析

文章从曼昆、罗默和韦尔的总量生产函数出发,在经济增长模型中加入老龄化因素,据此分析了老龄化所致人口结构变化对于人均经济增长率变动的影响,并对所建构的模型进行了检验,结果表明自1978-2004年老龄化因素下的人均经济增长变动率一直为正,但增长呈现下降趋势.同时对其变动作出了预测分析,结果表明我国在2035年以前处于人均经济增长变动率为正的人口红利期,在2036-2055年则处于人口亏损期.针对分析结论,本文提出了充分利用人口红利期的政策建议和未来研究的方向.     

Employers' Responses to Demographic Changes in Rural Labour Markets: The Case of Dumfries and Galloway

Employers in many rural areas are facing the problem of a declining workforce due to demographic changes in the population. These demographic changes are a result of a combination of population ageing, the in-migration of mainly retired people, out-migration and low fertility rates. This paper examines how employers are adjusting to demographic changes in Dumfries and Galloway, a rural local authority in south west Scotland. The area has one of the highest proportions of older people in the UK, and as such provides a useful insight into employers' responses to population ageing. Fifty locally based employers were questioned concerning the labour market impact of population ageing and their responses to this situation. The paper argues that in order to ensure the medium-term economic viability of the local economy, employers will need a set of strategies both to attract workers to the area and to increase the participation and retention of older workers resident in the area.     

重新认识中国的人口形势

中国人口进入低生育率时期已经20年了,但长期以来人口研究对这种重大转变认识不足。全国第六次人口普查数据证实,以往严重高估出生水平和生育水平,低估人口老龄化进程,人口发展规划目标一再出现大幅落空。人口预测模拟结果表明,中国人口在21世纪中的主要矛盾已经由总人口规模问题转向人口年龄结构问题,未来人口老龄化来势凶猛。中国人口发展正处于极为关键的时刻,而以往人口理论宣传和估计预测中的偏向误导了对人口大趋势的正确把握,造成中国生育率严重过低,导致未来过度的少子化和老龄化的人口风险。     

Fertility Change in Asia and Africa

There have been profound changes in fertility rates in Asia and Africa in the past two to three decades. The availability of new data allows a closer examination of fertility trends and underlying causes than has hitherto been possible. This collection brings together evidence on fertility decline in India, China, and a number of African countries. The papers examine the role of different explanatory factors in lowering fertility, including female education, declines in child mortality, urbanization, and the spread of mass media and “modern” consumer culture. The relative importance of female education as an explanatory factor vis-à-vis other factors is examined, with specific reference to India. The papers also explore the impact of the decline in birth rates for ageing and social security reform as well as health policy.     

Age structure of the population in Belgium and social security

The effects of demographic aging and of various socioeconomic factors on the social security system in Belgium are explored. "Special attention is given to the impact of the ageing of the population on the pension problem. Based on a simple formula a series of percentages of taxation have been calculated as a function of shifts in the proportion of retired vs. active population and in the proportion of the average income vs. the average amount of pension. One of the conclusions is that the progressive ageing of the population will become the most significant factor in the growth of social expenditures."     

我国农村养老保障体系发展的困境与对策

我国已经步入老龄化社会,而作为一个农业大国,农村人口的老龄化现象比城市更加突出。但是,与城市比较健全的社会养老保障制度相比,我国农村养老保障体系存在着较多的问题和困境。文章分析了我国农村养老保障体制的现状,并提出了对策,认为国家应该承担起其在完善农村养老保障制度中的责任。     

The effects of social security on population and output growth

"In this paper we have considered two unfunded social security programs. Under the conventional system, benefits are related to aggregate fertility; under the hypothetical fertility-related system, benefits are directly linked to individual fertility. The effects on fertility and per capita growth rates of the two social security systems are examined in the context of endogenous growth." The relative merits of the two systems for developing and developed countries are considered. The authors conclude that "the conventional social security system existing in many developed nations may be desirable to...developing countries in reducing population and promoting economic growth. On the other hand, the hypothetical fertility-related system may be useful to developed countries as far as increasing fertility is concerned."     

Population Ageing and Pension System Reform in China: A Computable Overlapping-Generations General Equilibrium Model Analysis

Over the next 50 years, China will face an increase of its old-age population by approximately three times. Such a demographic change may result in a large increase of pension payments, which would require a significant rise in the pension contribution rate. This also implies important intergenerational redistribution issues and may even harm living standards as a whole. This paper analyses for China the economic impact of an ageing population by means of a computable dynamic general equilibrium model with an overlapping generations structure. The paper explores the effect on the social security system and economic development of China under alternative scenarios for the benefit rates on pensions, retirement age and technological progress. Our research indicates that a pension reform plus positive technological progress can compensate for the menace of a decline in living standards for both seniors and working generations.     

Growth and Welfare Distribution in an Ageing Society: an Applied General Equilibrium Analysis for the Netherlands

This paper studies the effects of the imminent ageing of the population on economic growth and the distribution of welfare in the Netherlands. It shows that with the current system of social security ageing leads to a substantial increase of the tax burden and an estimated welfare loss for future generations of approximately 4% of lifetime wealth. It discusses the effect of reform measures in the pay-as-you-go social security system. It shows that a cut in PAYG pensions is efficiency-improving, but hurts the lower income groups of current generations. This effect can be ameliorated by a debt-financed cut in indirect taxes.     

二元老年社会保障体制的尴尬与对策研究

我国面临着严峻的人口老龄化挑战已是一个不争的事实,同时让我们必须正视的是农村人口老龄化程度远远高于城市,但农村老年社会保障却与城市相差甚远,呈二元结构。本文以《中国城乡老年人口状况追踪调查》研究报告数据为基础,对我国城市和农村的老年人口的养老保障、医疗保障、社会福利、为老服务等方面进行了对比分析,并在此基础上对解决途径进行探讨。     

联合国预测:中国快速走向老龄化

最新发布的联合国《世界人口前景2010修订本》对中国人口的评估和预测作出了重大调整,预测中国人口在2026年达到峰值13.96亿后迅速下降,到2050年时下降到12.95亿。预测表明中国快速迈向老龄社会大势已定,无法逆转,生育率能否尽快走出低谷是决定中国人口未来的关键。人口预测只是人口决策的参考而不应该是人口决策的目标。鉴于中国生育率低于更替水平已达20年之久,现在已经到1.5以下,再不调整计划生育政策,极有可能掉入"低生育水平的陷阱"。