TESTING THE SEQUENTIAL LOGIT MODEL AGAINST THE NESTED LOGIT MODEL*

In this paper, we show that the sequential logit (SL) model, in which a choice process is characterized as a sequence of independent multinomial logit models, is a limiting case of the nested logit (NL) model. For testing the SL model against the NL model, we propose Wald, likelihood ratio and Lagrange multiplier tests after suitably reparameterizing the NL model. It is found that when the NL model parameters are “weakly identified”, the Wald test severely underrejects the true model, whereas the sizes of the LR and LM tests are not significantly affected.     

A MODEL OF OVERCONFIDENCE

People use information about their ability to choose tasks. If more challenging tasks provide more accurate information about ability, people who care about and who are risk averse over their perception of their ability will choose tasks that are not sufficiently challenging. Moderate overestimation of ability and overestimation of the precision of initial information leads people to choose tasks that raise expected output (and utility); however, extreme overconfidence leads people to undertake tasks that are excessively challenging. Consistent with our results, psychologists find that moderate overconfidence is both pervasive and advantageous.     

MACROECONOMETRIC MODEL EVALUATION,WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO THE NIF88 MODEL*

This paper has argued that a mixture of procedures is required for the evaluation of a macroeconomic model. Both individual equations and overall model properties are involved, while both formal tests and an informal understanding of the model are needed. The procedures advocated reflect the need for evaluation to be informative and manageable. The bulk of the statistical testing is best conducted at the single equation stage. Evaluation of single equations involves:

• (i) employing a battery of diagnostic tests;
• (ii) specification and stability tests should be designed, where possible, to enhance the power of the test conducted, including by making use of external information;
• (iii) procedures designed to detect influence of particular observations can provide
• (iv) comparison with other information, both from other empirical investigations and from theoretical priors, is necessary to ensure sound results.

     

区域物流引力和地位模型的构建及应用研究

借鉴引力模型思想和引力势原理,结合区域物流涉及的经济、信息、能耗等因素,重构引力模型参数,构建了区域物流引力模型和区域物流地位模型。以中国31个省级区域2009年的统计数据为基础,测算了区域物流质量、区域间的物流引力、区域物流地位等指数值,划分区域物流引力类型、比较区域物流本底地位和相对地位,定量分析了区域间物流联系强度和区域物流发展水平,并提出了促进物流引力加强、区域物流低碳化发展的建议,对实现区域物流、经济协调发展具有一定的指导价值。     

农村城市化:"苏南模式"与"珠江模式"比较研究

“苏南模式”和“珠江模式”分别为我国江苏南部地区和珠江三角洲地区的农村经济发展模式,同时也代表了我国两种典型的农村城市化模式。文章首先探讨了“苏南模式”和“珠江模式”的农村城市化特征和趋势,然后从乡村工业化、农村剩余劳动力转移等角度对两种模式下农村城市化的机制进行比较分析,最后提出了这两种农村城市化所面临的主要问题和对策。     

MODEL COMPARISONS IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENTS

The goal of this article is to develop formal tests to evaluate the relative in‐sample performance of two competing, misspecified, nonnested models in the presence of possible data instability. Compared to previous approaches to model selection, which are based on measures of global performance, we focus on the local relative performance of the models. We propose tests that are based on different measures of local performance and that correspond to different null and alternative hypotheses. The empirical application provides insights into the time variation in the performance of a representative Euro‐area Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model relative to that of VARs.     

建立在行为经济学理论基础上的委托-代理模型:物质效用与动机公平的替代

本文通过将Rabin(1993)提出的同时考虑了物质效用和"动机公平"的效用函数植入现有的委托代理模型,获得一个代理人表现出"互惠性"非理性行为的新委托代理模型。由该模型给出来的最优委托代理合约在一定条件下可以给委托人带来比现有委托代理最优合约更高的利润水平。该研究改进和完善了蒲勇健(2007)的结果。与蒲勇健(2007)的研究相比,我们发现在同时考虑了物质效用和"动机公平"的情况下,非理性代理人的行为更加复杂,他会在公平与自利之间寻求平衡。数值模拟的结果表明,模型一般会存在解。     

EVIDENCE ON FEATURES OF A DSGE BUSINESS CYCLE MODEL FROM BAYESIAN MODEL AVERAGING*

The empirical support for features of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with two technology shocks is evaluated using Bayesian model averaging over vector autoregressions. The model features include equilibria, restrictions on long‐run responses, a structural break of unknown date, and a range of lags and deterministic processes. We find support for a number of features implied by the economic model, and the evidence suggests a break in the entire model structure around 1984, after which technology shocks appear to account for all stochastic trends. Business cycle volatility seems more due to investment‐specific technology shocks than neutral technology shocks.     

厂商的最佳预算模型

本文研究了最佳预算模型,利用库恩-塔克定理提出了确定最佳预算的方法,本文的结果指明了"零结算"可以导致预算"拥挤"的可能性。     

可计算的一般非均衡模型

本文根据现实世界经济变化的鲜明特征,建立了一个多部门市场经济的可计算非均衡动态模型。该模型突出了市场经济运转中市场中介人的核心作用:即在供求不等的价位上如何促使买卖成交,在生产和消费计划不协调的情况下如何协调生产、交换和消费活动。文章用递归(recursive-programming)方法模拟了市场的非均衡动态过程,部门内、部门间和市场上的反馈系统结构以及各种产品、投入物的存货调节机制和价格形成机制。经济人受约束的理性行为、适应性行为和小心谨慎行为以及若干经济制度特征都按可操作、可运转、可计算的方式进行了详细精致地描述和刻画。     

环境伦理型农地整理规划设计与运作模式探讨

从环境伦理学的角度出发，分析了当前农地整理中不伦理的行为，探究了产生不伦理行为的根源，提出了生态板、生态孔、生态岛屿和生态边界等环境伦理型农地整理规划设计模式和运作模式。环境伦理型农地整理规划设计模式在浙江省义乌市佛堂镇土地整理项目中得到了较好的运用。     

税收中介:环状模型

中介是介于供给者和消费者,制定宏观政策的中央政府和按个人理性行事的万千个体之间的组织或机制.该文在税收中介的特定框架下,提出了一个模型以讨论中介问题,表述了中介有效性定理,简要讨论了中介的有效配置,并以农村税收问题为例,进行了经验讨论.该文表明了中介问题的重要性及其研究价值.     

P-Star模型与通货膨胀压力测量

估计通货膨胀压力的常用方法是运用实际产出与潜在产出之间的缺口同价格变化率之间的关系来进行的,这种方法在国内已经很好地得到了应用,国内也有学者运用货币流通速度与其趋势值之间的偏移率来测算通货膨胀压力,但20世纪90年代以来在国际上得到较为广泛应用的P-Star模型国内还没有尝试。对中国数据的实证分析表明,运用P-Star方程来估算通货膨胀压力的变化,可以为国家价格总水平的调控提供参考。     

A STRUCTURAL MODEL OF ELECTORAL ACCOUNTABILITY

This article proposes a structural approach to measuring the effects of electoral accountability. We estimate a political agency model with imperfect information in order to identify and quantify discipline and selection effects, using data on U.S. governors. We find that the possibility of reelection provides a significant incentive for incumbents to exert effort, that is, a disciplining effect. We also find a positive but weaker selection effect. According to our model, the widely used two‐term regime improves voter welfare by 4.2% compared to a one‐term regime, and better voter information about the effort of the governors would further increase voter welfare by up to 0.5%.     

HOUSING IN A NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH MODEL

We present evidence that in the USA, the relative price of housing exhibits secular growth and that its growth rate is a stationary series. The ratio of the value of house stock to either consumption or GDP is also stationary. We develop a two‐sector neoclassical growth model with housing that is consistent with these facts. Among the long‐run determinants of the growth of housing prices and housing stock per capita are factor intensities, rates of technological progress in both the housing and non‐housing sectors, and the excess of population growth over land growth. We also study the model's transitional dynamics.     

THE PURE CHARACTERISTICS DEMAND MODEL*

In this article, we consider a class of discrete choice models in which consumers care about a finite set of product characteristics. These models have been used extensively in the theoretical literature on product differentiation and the goal of this article is to translate them into a form that is useful for empirical work. Most recent econometric applications of discrete choice models implicitly let the dimension of the characteristic space increase with the number of products (they have “tastes for products”). The two models have different theoretical properties, and these, in turn, can have quite pronounced implications for both substitution patterns and for the welfare impacts of changes in the number and characteristics of the goods marketed. After developing those properties, we provide alternative algorithms for estimating the parameters of the pure characteristic model and compare their properties to those of the algorithm for estimating the model with tastes for products. We conclude with a series of Monte Carlo results. These are designed to illustrate: (i) the computational properties of the alternative algorithms for computing the pure characteristic model, and (ii) the differences in the implications of the pure characteristic model from the models with tastes for products.     

评价旅游景点经济价值的数学模型

旅游成本方法是新近发展起来的评价旅游景点经济价值的方法。本文对该方法的理论模型,统计模型及模型应用的条件进行全面的探讨,并结合最近的进展展开评价,同时对旅游在放展予以讨论。