产业结构、人力资本分布结构与收入差距

文章将产业结构、人力资本分布结构与收入差距纳入到一个三元分析框架中,认为产业结构升级会推动人力资本投资强度与结构不断调整,一方面促进人力资本结构调整与优化,另一方面可长期显著提升就业能力与平均收入,缩小城乡收入差距。随后的实证分析与理论分析基本一致:人力资本分布结构优化较产业结构优化更能缩小收入差距,同时,收入差距的改善也会惠及产业结构升级、人力资本分布结构优化,但当前的产业结构与人力资本分布结构之间耦合效率较低,甚至发生相互掣肘的效率损耗。因此,在加大产业结构调整的同时,应充分考虑人力资本分布结构的演进特征,充分促进产业结构与人力资本分布结构之间良性互动。     

银行业结构对城乡收入差距影响研究——基于新结构经济学最优金融结构理论视角

城乡收入差距关乎社会公平、牵系经济的可持续发展。基于2009—2014年我国31个省市自治区的面板数据,构建了动态面板模型,运用广义矩估计方法（GMM)就中小银行发展对城乡收入差距的影响及其作用渠道进行了研究。结果表明,中小银行发展对城乡收入差距的直接效应是扩大城乡收入差距,但通过中小企业发展渠道产生的间接效应缩小了城乡收入差距;且中小企业发展主要通过就业效应和经济增长效应提高农村居民收入,缩小城乡收入差距,且就业效应要大于经济增长效应。政策含义：优化金融结构中的银行业结构,使得中小银行发展推动中小企业发展释放就业效应和经济增长效应,抑制城乡收入差距的扩大。     

产业结构变动、收入来源结构差异与城乡收入差距

城乡收入差距是我国经济快速发展中遇到的突出问题之一.本文在对以往相关文献梳理的基础上,采集了1993-2012年间的相关数据,运用协整模型实证研究了产业结构变动、收入来源结构差异与城乡收入差距的长期均衡关系.研究发现：（1）第二产业占GDP比值长期来看会缩小城乡收入差距;（2）城乡居民工资性收入差异、城乡居民经营性收入差异和城乡居民转移性收入差异对城乡收入差距影响显著;（3）城乡财产性收入差异对城乡收入差距影响不显著.最后结合实证研究结果提出了缩小城乡差距的政策建议.     

新疆公共支出对居民收入差距影响的实证分析

本文在已有研究的基础上构建计量模型,实证研究新疆公共支出对新疆城乡居民收入差距的影响.研究结果发现,新疆公共支出有利于缩小城乡居民收入差距;经济增长是影响城乡居民收入差距的主要因素;工业化水平和产业结构演进是影响城乡居民收入差距的重要因素;城市化水平和城乡二元制度是影响居民收入差距的因素之一.新疆公共支出结构对新疆城乡居民收入差距影响不尽相同:文科教卫支出和行政管理支出与城乡居民收入差距呈正向关系,促使城乡居民收入差距扩大;基本建设支出、支农支出和企业挖潜改造支出均与城乡居民收入差距呈负向关系,有利于缩小城乡居民收入差距.     

缩小居民可支配收入和财产差距的税收政策选择

中国的经济高速增长阶段结束,正在向经济中高速增长转换,经济下行压力增大.在国际和国内经济总供求失衡、总需求不足的条件下,通过缩小收入差距,扩大有效需求是解决总需求不足的一个重要思路和途径.在这个阶段,中国应更加重视缩小收入差距这一社会政策的重要性.税收政策和制度是缩小居民收入和财产差距的重要工具,但目前中国间接税占比较高的税制结构,在收入分配上具有明显的累退性,对缩小收入差距的作用很弱,同时个人所得税制度对调节收入差距功效很低.为此建议:逐步调整税制结构,提高直接税比重;改革和完善个人所得税,提升其对收入差距调节的功能;改革和完善房地产税,发挥其调节财产差距的功能.     

中国西部地区产业结构演进与生产率增长研究

产业结构和产业绩效相互影响。虽然西部地区劳动生产率与东部地区的绝对差距在拉大,但西部地区劳动生产率增长率相对较快,因而劳动生产率的相对差距在缩小。通过分析我国西部地区1996—1998、1998—2002、2002—2008、2008—2009年四个时段就业构成变化和产业结构演进以及劳动生产率水平和增长率差异,发现劳动力的结构变动度在加快;生产率的增长主要来自于产业内部,尤其是第二产业内部;劳动力在产业间流动的结构效应虽然不如产业内部增长效应大,但仍然是促进生产率增长的重要因素,这表明劳动力产业结构的变化具有明显的"结构红利"特征。     

城镇化加速发展时期的产业结构变迁与城乡收入差距——基于西部省级面板数据的分析

选取西部12个省区1992—2012年的省级面板数据,对城镇化加速发展阶段产业结构变动与城乡居民收入差距进行实证分析。结果显示:城镇化进程拉大了城乡收入差距;产业结构合理化缩小了城乡收入差距,而产业结构高级化对城乡收入差距未能产生显著影响;其他影响因素中,经济增长水平显著扩大了城乡收入差距;政府对经济活动的参与程度、经济开放程度、财政支农政策缩小了城乡收入差距。     

城镇收入分配差距对第三产业的影响

随着经济体制改革的深入、产业结构的调整和社会结构的转型,我国居民收入差距呈现出不断扩大的趋势.以往,国内外许多专家学者做了许多关于收入分配差距对居民消费以及收入分配差距对经济发展影响方面的研究.例如陆铭等(2004)结合联立方程模型和分布滞后模型,研究了收入差距、投资、教育和经济增长的相互影响,认为从积累效应来看,收入差距始终对经济增长有负面影响;同时,经济增长也有利于缩小收入分配差距.     

结构转型与地区收敛:美国的经验及其对中国的启示

本文通过一个地区收敛与结构转型的分析框架 ,以报酬递增理论为基础 ,以美国经济历史为例 ,详细分析了两者的关系。地区收敛不仅取决于产业结构趋同 ,而且也依赖地区间工资趋同 ,而产业趋同和工资趋同都归结为地区结构转型。美国的历史经验告诉我们 ,目前中国缩小地区差距的根本途径是尽快实现中西部地区的产业结构转型。     

所有制结构变动与居民收入差距:研究综述

改革开放以来,我国经济赢得了持续快速发展。这主要得益于:以资本和劳动为代表的物质要素供给不断增加;以所有制改革为核心的经济体制改革有效推动了经济技术效率的提高。但是,在所有制结构转换推动国内经济发展和居民收入水平改善的过程中,也对经济公平带来了严重的挑战,这突出表现在居民收入差距的逐渐扩大。本文重点考察了近年来国内外在所有制结构变动与居民收入差距研究方面的有关成果,并在综述这些成果的同时,研究了所有制结构变迁引起经济增长,经济增长与收入差距的交互关系以及所有制结构变动如何传导至收入差距。     

An empirical study of structural factors and regional growth in China

Based on data of 31 Chinese provinces over the period 1980–2004, the study in this paper presents new evidence on the effects of structural shocks and structural transformation on growth and convergence among the Chinese regions. The division of overall regional growth in labour productivity into three components – growth due to structural shocks, growth due to structural transformation and a ‘residual’ indicating growth due to region-specific changes – provides us with a better framework than the traditional one-sector Solow growth model for attributing growth and convergence to various different sources. Among other findings, the study has shown that during 1990–1999, structural shocks worked to widen the gap between rich regions and poor regions in China, while structural transformation worked to narrow the gap.     

Explaining the Productivity Growth Gap Between China and India: The Role of Structural Transformation

Chinese and Indian aggregate productivity growth has been significantly different over the last 30 years. This paper studies the role of structural transformation in accounting for the aggregate productivity growth gap between two economies. We calibrate a neoclassical model of structural transformation for China and India. The model implies that higher productivity growth in China's manufacturing and agriculture accounts for most of the aggregate productivity growth gap between the two countries. According to the development strategy of China's government, China would start a new phase of structural transformation whereby employment is moving from manufacturing to services. Since the productivity growth gap in services is pretty small between China and India, if China wants to remain superior in relative productivity, it should improve the productivity growth rate of services. In contrast, the relative performance in India hinges on closing its productivity gap in agriculture and manufacturing relative to China.     

Factor reallocation and structural transformation implications of grain subsidies in China

Since agriculture has contributed significantly to China’s economic growth miracle, it is important to understand the contributions and determinants of agriculture related to different agricultural policies in structural transformation in China. However, as one of the most important agricultural policies in China, the effects of the grain subsidy policy on factor reallocation, economic growth, as well as agricultural and non-agricultural production have not been investigated systematically and comprehensively. The absence of using an economy-wide model to estimate the impacts of the grain subsidy policy in China leaves a vacuum in the policy-advising space. This research develops a dynamic single-country, multi-regional computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy to evaluate the historical impacts of the grain subsidy policy. Our results reveal that grain subsidies impede the efficiency of factor reallocation and economic structural transformation in China. However, grain subsidies promote grain production growth and temporarily reduce rural-urban income disparity. In order to achieve the long-term sustainable increase in rural income and to mitigate the rural-urban income gap, China needs to further develop its labor-intensive industries (e.g., services) to accommodate the large number of rural labor transfers. Moreover, the large-scale agricultural production and technology improvement in agriculture are the effective measures to ensure food security in China.     

Hong Kong's growth synchronization with China and the US: A trend and cycle analysis

This paper investigates the synchronization of Hong Kong's economic growth with mainland China and the US. We identify trends of economic growth based on the permanent income hypothesis. Specifically, we first confirm whether real consumption in Hong Kong and mainland China satisfies the permanent income hypothesis, at least in a weak form. We then identify the permanent and transitory components of income of each economy using a simple state-space model. We use structural vector autoregression models to analyze how permanent and transitory shocks originating from mainland China and the US affect the Hong Kong economy, and how such influences evolve over time. Our main findings suggest that transitory shocks from the US remain a major driving force behind Hong Kong's business cycle fluctuations. On the other hand, permanent shocks from mainland China have a larger impact on Hong Kong's trend growth.     

Is a Common Currency Area Feasible for East Asia? A Multivariate Structural Vector Autoregression Approach

In this paper the feasibility of forming a common currency area in East Asia is investigated. A three‐variable structural vector autoregression model is used to identify three types of shocks: global, regional and domestic shocks. The empirical results show that in the post‐crisis period the importance of asymmetric domestic shocks has declined sharply, whereas that of symmetric global and regional shocks has increased. Furthermore, although a ‘prevalent shock’ cannot be uniquely defined, most East Asian economies respond to global and regional shocks in a symmetric way. Although the findings do not provide strong support for forming a common currency area in this region at the current stage, they suggest that most East Asian economies have become relatively symmetric in terms of economic shocks and adjustments, implying that a common currency area might become viable through deepening regional integration.     

结构调整、技术进步与制造业变迁的地区差异

对我国19个省份1993年和2004年制造业统计数据的对比发现,各地区技术进步类型呈阶梯差异,技术冲击、全要素增长与结构调整也对地区间总量增长和效益变化的差异性具有显著作用。改变我国制造业增长地区差距继续扩大的现实,欠发达地区必须加快经济转型与体制改革的步伐,进一步提高结构调整的速率,积极吸收东部地区与发达国家的成熟技术和闲置资本。     

China’s inclusive development strategy and its effect on regional disparity

Abstract

In 2004, the Chinese Government declared an inclusive development strategy, ‘building a harmonious society’. This paper focuses on regional disparity issues and discusses three questions: (1) What are the background, goals and main tasks of China’s inclusive development strategy? (2) What changes have taken place in China’s regional development strategy under this inclusive development strategy? and (3) What is the recent impact of the regional development strategy on regional disparity in China? Our analysis’ results show that after the late 1970s, China’s regional disparity experienced three sub-periods: a period of decline from 1978 to the early 1990s, a period of increase from the early 1990s to the early 2000s and a period of significant decline after the early 2000s. If we divide China’s overall regional disparity into four components: disparity within the east, disparity within the centre, disparity within the west and disparity between the three regions, the first and the fourth dominated the changes of China’s regional disparity in the past three decades. After the early 2000s, both the reduction of disparity between the three regions and the reduction of disparity within the east have contributed to the significant reduction of China’s overall regional disparity. This result implies that under the China-style inclusive development strategy, the recent adjustment in regional development strategy has considerably reduced the regional disparity in this huge country. However, the recent high economic growth in the inland provinces is heavily dependent on a huge input of capital, which is driven by public investment and seems not to be sustainable. To achieve a more inclusive and sustainable development, the Chinese Government and policy-makers should pay more attention to the issues of the low growth of TFP (total factor productivity) and the low growth of labour input in less-developed provinces.     

市场潜力、外部性与中国地区工资差异

改革开放以来，中国地区间经济增长率的差异直接导致了地区间工资差距呈现持续扩大的现象。本文以新经济地理学的空间工资结构理论为指导．运用1997-2004年省级面板数据，着眼于市场潜力、产业外部性和城市外部性三方面来考察现阶段中国地区工资差距的变化趋势。研究结果表明，市场潜力的空间分布与产业和城市的外部性是造成中国地区工资差异的重要因素。     

我国有效税率结构的经济增长效应：基于SVAR模型的实证研究

通过测算我国劳动、资本和消费的有效税率,以反映我国劳动收入、资本收入和消费支出的真实税收负担情况,并在此基础上构建SVAR模型来考察有效税率结构冲击对经济增长的动态影响。结果表明：消费支出有效税率和劳动收入有效税率的提高有利于投资率和经济增长率的提高,长期累积效应为正;对资本收入征税,无论在短期还是长期都不利于投资率和经济增长率的提高,长期累积效应为负。研究我国有效税率结构的经济增长动态增长效应,对政府税收政策的制定和实施时机的选择有一定的参考意义。     

我国区域经济发展态势分析与展望

2007年我国中西部地区经济增长速度首次超过东部地区,区域经济继续保持普遍加速高位运行态势,地区差距继续向趋缓方向发展:增长速度继续呈"西部东部快、中部慢"格局,差距继续有所缩小;经济总量继续呈"东部大、中西部小"格局,总量比重结构差距呈"地带缩小、省区拉大"态势。2008年我国区域经济将继续保持良好发展趋势,增长速度可能稍有放缓,区域差距将继续保持"绝对差扩速放缓、相对差距略有缩小"态势。本文提出了2008年区域经济协调发展的若干对策建议。