对当前中国投资率问题的若干认识

我国的投资率与世界上绝大多数国家特别是发达国家相比一直偏高,由此引发了对中国今后经济增长方式之争。本文认为必须结合国情,客观地看待中国的高投资率:一是国别实证分析表明,与相同发展阶段的国家比较,中国目前的投资率偏离并不大,投资率下降常常与经济增长率回落相伴;二是中国现行统计制度以及相关指标数据尚不完善,存在投资率被"高估"、消费率被"低估"的问题;三是鉴于目前中国经济发展阶段及特点,投资率还将在较长一段时间维持较高水平。     

中国的高投资率:成因、影响及可持续性

进入21世纪以来,随着投资规模的不断攀升,中国的投资率达到较高的水平。本文从必要性、条件、动力等决定投资的因素分析了中国高投资率的成因,并指出了高投资主导经济增长的模式对中国产业结构升级、投资效率、金融稳定的长期不利影响。在此基础上,结合经济运行的基本逻辑,提出了如何保持较高投资率,促进中国经济持续、快速、健康发展的主要措施。     

中国经常账户盈余下降是周期性的吗?北大核心CSSCISSCI

金融危机之后中国经常账户盈余快速下降,引发了关于经常账户变化到底是周期性的还是结构性的争论。从储蓄投资角度看,近年来经常账户盈余下降主要是投资率的快速上升所致。本文通过对我国投资率的决定因素分析为经常账户变化提供一种解释。将投资率的变动分解为结构性因素、内部周期性因素和外部周期性因素,通过主成分分析和向量误差修正模型对上述三大类指标进行计量分析发现,2007-2012年结构性因素所致的投资率上升占总投资率上升的55.5%,周期性因素的贡献则占36.4%。因此,金融危机后我国经常账户盈余占GDP的比重下降的主要原因是结构性的。     

试论银行业金融机构如何有效识别防控国别风险

国别风险影响因素复杂多变,传播速度快,危害范围广,是银行业金融机构境外资产业务面临的主要风险之一。随着中国经济的外向性程度越来越高,国别风险事件频发使我国银行境外资产面临较大潜在威胁,如何充分识别和有效防控国别风险正受到前所未有的重视。本文结合我国银行国别风险管理中存在的问题,提出建立与自身情况相适应的国别风险评级体系、构建系统完善的国别风险评估报告体系、积极采取国别风险转移和缓释措施等建议,以实现有效识别与防控国别风险。     

我国劳动收入占比的影响因素分析北大核心CSSCI

我国劳动收入占比的显著影响因素主要有要素和技术特征变量、结构调整变量、经济发展方式变量和政府政策变量。这些因素在不同阶段和不同地区往往表现出一定差异。其中外商投资水平、资本深化、人力资本、产业结构升级有利于提高劳动收入占比,而技术进步、失业率、国有经济占比、投资率、对外贸易水平会降低劳动收入占比,根据上述结论,可以得到一些有益的政策建议。     

我国商业银行跨国经营中的国别风险分析与控制

随着我国商业银行国际业务发展水平的提高,国际化程度的加大,国别风险越来越多地影响到我国商业银行的跨国经营业务。加上近几年美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机和欧洲主权债务危机等国别风险事件接连发生,对现有国别风险分析和控制实属必要。本文从国别风险的概念出发,分析了国别风险的影响因素,指出我国商业银行国别风险管理中的问题并提出管理对策。     

我国商业银行跨国经营中的国别风险分析与控制

随着我国商业银行国际业务发展水平的提高,国际化程度的加大,国别风险越来越多地影响到我国商业银行的跨国经营业务。加上近几年美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机和欧洲主权债务危机等国别风险事件接连发生,对现有国别风险分析和控制实属必要。本文从国别风险的概念出发,分析了国别风险的影响因素,指出我国商业银行国别风险管理中的问题并提出管理对策。     

商业银行营业收入会计核算和税法差异探析

在我国,银行业属于金融保险行业,按照金融企业会计制度进行会计核算,由于部分银行业务具有其特殊性,会计人员在取得营业收入计提营业税时,其核算办法与税法差异较大,存在少缴税款现象.本文先从金融会计营业收入核算方法引入话题,然后分析相关税法规定,对影响会计税收差异的主要因素进行分析探讨.     

我国经济运行中的高投资率问题探讨

本文分析了我国当前经济运行中的高投资率现状,指出传统文化和社会福利因素、工业化和城市化因素、外商直接投资增长、较高的预期投资回报是我国高投资率形成的重要原因。在此基础上,本文探讨了当前我国高投资率具有客观合理性,并将在中长期内保持下去。     

经济增长差异分析

本文以收敛性理论为基础,对经济发展水平和增长差异作了统计描述,并以结构分析和总量分析方法分析了影响经济增长差异的主要因素,由此得出以下基本结论:工业化程度是影响经济增长差异的重要因素;资本存量的边际生产率具有遏制差距扩大的作用,而劳动力的边际生产率促进了差距的扩大。基于此,通过应用总量分析方法,从促进经济增长的要素投入方面进一步分析了影响经济增长差异的因素。     

Taxation and the optimal constraint on corporate debt finance: why a comprehensive business income tax is suboptimal

The tax bias in favour of debt finance under the corporate income tax means that corporate debt ratios exceed the socially optimal level. This creates a rationale for a general thin capitalization rule limiting the amount of debt that qualifies for interest deductibility. This paper sets up a model of corporate finance and investment in a small open economy to identify the optimal constraint on tax-favoured debt finance, assuming that a given amount of revenue has to be raised from the corporate income tax. For plausible parameter values, the socially optimal debt-asset ratio is 2–3% points below the average corporate debt level currently observed. Driving the actual debt ratio down to this level through limitations on interest deductibility would generate a total welfare gain of about 5% of corporate tax revenue. The welfare gain would arise mainly from a fall in the social risks associated with corporate investment, but also from the cut in the corporate tax rate made possible by a broader corporate tax base.     

Genetic Variation in Financial Decision‐Making

Individuals differ in how they construct their investment portfolios, yet empirical models of portfolio risk typically account only for a small portion of the cross‐sectional variance. This paper asks whether genetic variation can explain some of these individual differences. Following a major pension reform Swedish adults had to form a portfolio from a large menu of funds. We match data on these investment decisions with the Swedish Twin Registry and find that approximately 25% of individual variation in portfolio risk is due to genetic variation. We also find that these results extend to several other aspects of financial decision‐making.     

EQUITY CAPITAL, PROFIT SHARING CONTRACTS, AND INVESTMENT: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

The potential effect of financial variables on the level of investment is among the key issues in contemporary financial economics. Some researchers have claimed that there is an inherent risk in the Islamic profit-and-loss sharing scheme that replaces the western fixed-interest rate system. This paper argues that such concerns are baseless. In an Islamic framework, equity capital (i.e., strong financial position) and the profit-sharing ratio are primary determinants of investment. It is shown that both factors could enhance the firm's business reputation and its investment activities. The paper, in so doing, constructs a two-period equilibrium model of profit-sharing contracts. An optimal solution for the investment function is derived for the banking firm. Besides equity capital and the profit-sharing ratio, other relevant determinants of investment are also considered, including depreciation and expected inflation. Moreover, unlike most previous research in this area, the resultant investment (and profitsharing ratio) functions are subjected to empirical testing using data from a representative Islamic bank.     

A Dynamic Model of Optimal Capital Structure

This paper presents a continuous time model of a firm that candynamically adjust both its capital structure and its investmentchoices. In the model we endogenize the investment choice aswell as firm value, which are both determined by an exogenousprice process that describes the firm's product market. Withinthe context of this model we explore cross-sectional as wellas time-series variation in debt ratios. We pay particular attentionto interactions between financial distress costs and debtholder/equityholderagency problems and examine how the ability to dynamically adjustthe debt ratio affects the deviation of actual debt ratios fromtheir targets. Regressions estimated on simulated data generatedby our model are roughly consistent with actual regressionsestimated in the empirical literature.     

Putty-clay technology and stock market volatility

Firms' first-order conditions imply that stock returns equal investment returns from the production technology. Much applied work uses the adjustment cost technology, which implies that the realized return is high when the investment-capital ratio is high. This paper derives, for an arbitrary stochastic discount factor, the investment return implied by the putty-clay technology. The combination of capital heterogeneity and irreversibility creates a novel channel for return volatility. The investment return is high when the ratio of investment to gross job creation is low. Empirically, the putty-clay feature helps account for U.S. stock market data.     

Commonalities in investment strategy and the determinants of performance in mutual fund mergers

This paper examines the determinants of cross-sectional variation in post-merger mutual fund performance. Mergers between funds with similar management objectives, as reflected by average portfolio book-to-market ratio, price–earnings ratio, beta and market capitalization values, outperform mergers between funds with dissimilar strategies. This superior performance transcends lower portfolio rebalancing costs which might be realized between merging funds which hold more assets in common. These results suggest that mutual fund mergers create collaborative benefits between funds with similar strategies. We also examine if fund governance structures influence the fund pairing process, testing if stronger fund oversight mitigates pairing mismatches. We find that less independent boards of trustees and boards with higher compensation are related to greater strategic mismatches between funds. These results suggest that more entrenched boards are more tolerant of fund mismatches which benefit the investment company, yet are not in investor’s best interests.     

中国实体企业金融化:货币扩张、资本逐利还是风险规避?

本文构建了一个刻画实体企业在流动性金融资产和固定资产之间进行权衡的投资组合选择模型,并创新性地将货币扩张的宏观因素引入微观模型,推演中国实业部门金融化的驱动逻辑。理论模型显示:货币扩张、资本逐利和风险规避本质上是宏观和微观两个不同层面的要素变量,但都卷入实业部门金融化的驱动机制中,然而驱动效应的表现形式要比已有文献的理论模型更加复杂。基于上市公司面板数据总体样本的实证结果表明:货币扩张、资本逐利和风险规避均是企业金融化的关键影响因素,但货币扩张表现为直接抑制和间接促进两种效应。进一步引入宏观风险因素和根据企业所有权性质划分样本的稳健性检验则给出了更为细致的信息:货币因素可能通过宏观风险因素间接作用于企业金融化;所有权性质不同的企业的金融化驱动机制也表现出明显的异质性:国有企业金融化主要受货币因素和风险规避因素影响;民营企业金融资产占比层面的金融化驱动因素是风险规避和资本逐利,而金融渠道获利占比层面的金融化则受到货币因素的显著影响;其他类型企业的金融化主要受货币因素的显著影响。     

财政转移支付如何影响了地方政府债务?

本文以地方融资平台公司发行的城投债为样本,研究来自中央政府的财政转移支付对于地方城投债发行的影响。研究发现,来自中央政府的人均财政专项转移支付每增加1元,会导致地方融资平台公司城投债发行增加人均0.312元,而包括税收返还和一般性转移支付在内的非专项转移支付对城投债的发行并无显著影响。并且,专项转移支付对城投债发行的显著正影响只在中西部省份存在,东部地区并未发现这一机制。本文的进一步研究表明,地方政府债务的借新还旧现象也正在显现,并且变得越来越严重。     

CEO inside debt and investment‐cash flow sensitivity

This paper provides a new explanation for investment‐cash flow sensitivity from the perspective of CEO inside debt holdings. We examine the effect of CEO pensions and deferred compensation (inside debt) on investment‐cash flow sensitivity for a sample of U.S. manufacturing firms from 2006 to 2012. We find that the firms with higher relative CEO leverage ratios (CEO's debt/equity ratio scaled by the firm's debt/equity ratio) generate higher investment‐cash flow sensitivity. Moreover, one standard deviation increase in the logarithm of the relative CEO leverage ratio enlarges investment‐cash flow sensitivity by 50 per cent. This positive relationship still holds even after we take account of endogeneity and financial constraints.     

保险公司资产组合与最优投资比例研究

保险公司收益主要来源于承保利润和投资收益,其中承保利润受政策变动、市场条件等外部环境的影响较大,而投资收益则更多地取决于保险公司的投资能力,因此保险公司如何构建资产组合、如何确定最优投资比例就是获取投资收益最大化的重要因素。本文通过理论推导得出了保险公司的资产组合模型并运用非线性规划求解出最优投资比例,进而根据保险公司的投资数据进行了实证研究,为我国保险公司的资产组合及最优投资比例提供了一个可借鉴的思路。